CaP'N GRuNGe Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 For better or worse I shuffled a couple of things in my 401K right before the market closed. I dropped out of FNORX and FSDAX. I rebalanced everything to 25% each among 4 funds. So now i'm in: FICDX Fidelity Canada FCNTX Fidelity Contra Fund FFNOX Fidelity Four in One Index FDFAX Fidelity Select Consumer Staples And I'm just going to try ignore it and see what happens over the next 12 months. I think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmarc117 Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 You're still long vol? :eek: yea, not as much as ive been all week. it has definitely worked though. the guy next to me has 100k in theta per night this weekend!! needless to say he has been crushing it the last few weeks. our thinking is that col will come in, but not a complete fire sale. risk managers are scared stiff and wont allow anyone to sell too much vol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I Like Soup Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 I just became a bajillionaire. Sweet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaP'N GRuNGe Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 I just became a bajillionaire. Sweet. <borrows one of jimmy's guns and heads over to Soup's house> <knock knock> Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rebellab Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 I gues the US is getting into the banking business. I assume this is why Paulson wanted all that power. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugar Magnolia Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 A friend just called to say she's coming in town and wants to get together tomorrow night. I can't wait to pick her brain and get her thoughts on all that's been going down. She works for the Federal Reserve and has a masters in finance from Harvard, and has pretty good common sense. The only advice she has given me so far, which I haven't taken, is to spend money right now as our economy needs that injection. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I Like Soup Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 <borrows one of jimmy's guns and heads over to Soup's house> <knock knock> Tracking Grunge from down the street... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big John Posted October 11, 2008 Share Posted October 11, 2008 Tracking Grunge from down the street... And your 6'5 frame will overtake him? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ursa Majoris Posted October 11, 2008 Share Posted October 11, 2008 herd is the word Couldn't agree more. Flock might be more appropriate - what f'n sheep all these market wankers are, exposed as a clueless bunch of morans. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted October 11, 2008 Share Posted October 11, 2008 Couldn't agree more. Flock might be more appropriate - what f'n sheep all these market wankers are, exposed as a clueless bunch of morans. Did you sell everything last night? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiegie Posted October 11, 2008 Author Share Posted October 11, 2008 The only advice she has given me so far, which I haven't taken, is to spend money right now as our economy needs that injection. She was joking, right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ursa Majoris Posted October 11, 2008 Share Posted October 11, 2008 Did you sell everything last night? No. What I've never had, I'll never miss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiegie Posted October 11, 2008 Author Share Posted October 11, 2008 It is going to be really hard for me to keep a straight face next week when I have to teach the efficient markets hypothesis to my students. (Certainly all of these swings were the result of new information that caused people to update their estimates of present value of the stocks' future dividend streams... right?) Now, having said this, I really do believe that almost everyone should treat their investment strategy as though the efficient markets hypothesis actually is correct. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted October 11, 2008 Share Posted October 11, 2008 It is going to be really hard for me to keep a straight face next week when I have to teach the efficient markets hypothesis to my students. (Certainly all of these swings were the result of new information that caused people to update their estimates of present value of the stocks' future dividend streams... right?) I believe you could argue that the public's extreme response to incremental new information created a certain type of feedback loop, and the existence of this feedback loop was "new information". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaP'N GRuNGe Posted October 11, 2008 Share Posted October 11, 2008 I believe you could argue that the public's extreme response to incremental new information created a certain type of feedback loop, and the existence of this feedback loop was "new information". In other words, PANIC! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I Like Soup Posted October 11, 2008 Share Posted October 11, 2008 And your 6'5 frame will overtake him? :flexing: It is going to be really hard for me to keep a straight face next week when I have to teach the efficient markets hypothesis to my students. (Certainly all of these swings were the result of new information that caused people to update their estimates of present value of the stocks' future dividend streams... right?) Now, having said this, I really do believe that almost everyone should treat their investment strategy as though the efficient markets hypothesis actually is correct. So wedgie, does this mean the hypothesis is wrong? If you have a try and keep a straight face, well, that kind of tells me the validity may be...well, crap. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Double Agent Posted October 11, 2008 Share Posted October 11, 2008 The only advice she has given me so far, which I haven't taken, is to spend money right now as our economy needs that injection. I don't have a degree from Harvard, but I highly recommend against this advice. We should all be very careful with our spending right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jetsfan Posted October 11, 2008 Share Posted October 11, 2008 (edited) I cannot see a better time to buy. Most of the financials and even some real companies are selling at a P/E less than 1. Easy money in the long term. Edited October 11, 2008 by jetsfan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Holy Roller Posted October 11, 2008 Share Posted October 11, 2008 I cannot see a better time to buy.Most of the financials and even some real companies are selling at a P/E less than 1. Easy money in the long term. I'm loading up on as much Ford stock as I can get. So far I got both shares. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugar Magnolia Posted October 11, 2008 Share Posted October 11, 2008 I cannot see a better time to buy.Most of the financials and even some real companies are selling at a P/E less than 1. Easy money in the long term. I think this all depends on whether you think we are in a financial crisis like 1929 or a financial crisis like 1987. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugar Magnolia Posted October 11, 2008 Share Posted October 11, 2008 She was joking, right? Nope she wasn't. I think her point is if we panic and don't spend and in combination with the credit freeze, it can make things worse. I think from a personal standpoint it is prudent to pull back, but if we stop being consumers, the economy will slow down that much faster. Not that we should max out our credit cards, we still need to make purchases within our means. I am actually putting words in her mouth. All she said was to keep spending and keep your money safe. I'll know more tomorrow night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiegie Posted October 11, 2008 Author Share Posted October 11, 2008 Nope she wasn't. I think her point is if we panic and don't spend and in combination with the credit freeze, it can make things worse. I think from a personal standpoint it is prudent to pull back, but if we stop being consumers, the economy will slow down that much faster. Not that we should max out our credit cards, we still need to make purchases within our means. I am actually putting words in her mouth. All she said was to keep spending and keep your money safe. I'll know more tomorrow night. For what it's worth, I told both my brother and sister (who have jobs in cyclical industries) that they should cut back and prepare for a possible pretty bad economy. I could give two craps about any potential negative effects their reduction in spending might have on the overall economy. (and interestingly enough, if people aren't spending money, they will be most likely putting their money into their bank accounts and this could(marginally) help unfreeze the credit markets.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaP'N GRuNGe Posted October 11, 2008 Share Posted October 11, 2008 For what it's worth, I told both my brother and sister (who have jobs in cyclical industries) that they should cut back and prepare for a possible pretty bad economy. I could give two craps about any potential negative effects their reduction in spending might have on the overall economy. (and interestingly enough, if people aren't spending money, they will be most likely putting their money into their bank accounts and this could(marginally) help unfreeze the credit markets.) So instead of infusing cash in the banks through buying equity, why not give the money directly to people with the stipulation it be placed in savings accounts that can't be touched for one year? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiegie Posted October 11, 2008 Author Share Posted October 11, 2008 So instead of infusing cash in the banks through buying equity, why not give the money directly to people with the stipulation it be placed in savings accounts that can't be touched for one year? because it really wouldn't increase the bank's capital (my key word in my comments above about the savings accounts was "marginally"--meaning that it would really barely have any effect) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugar Magnolia Posted October 11, 2008 Share Posted October 11, 2008 For what it's worth, I told both my brother and sister (who have jobs in cyclical industries) that they should cut back and prepare for a possible pretty bad economy. I could give two craps about any potential negative effects their reduction in spending might have on the overall economy. (and interestingly enough, if people aren't spending money, they will be most likely putting their money into their bank accounts and this could(marginally) help unfreeze the credit markets.) Again, from a personal persepctive I agree with you and have reduced my spending. When she told me she wanted to go out to dinner at this fancy Mexican restaurant I told her I can only afford Taco Bell, or she can come over to my house for Top Ramen, and maybe I'll splurge and buy some Charles Shaw $2.99 wine. We are going to the fancy place, owned by a friend of ours, but the $15-18 entres are so big I can get two meals and a lunch out of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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