The Jaguars released Fred Taylor.

[Capt. Stanky]

How many more touches does MJD really need to be considered a top 3 fantasy back? Like I've stated many times, he was the #2 overall fantasy back in PPR leagues last year, if you go by total pts. I think the uptick in touches he will receive will be enough to make him more consistent than he was in the past, and that was really the only knock on his fantasy game, right? With all the question marks surrounding top RB's going into next year how many backs do the naysayers really think should justifiably be drafted before MJD?

[H8tank]

It still would not surprise me to see the Jags make a trade or grab a FA after the summer cuts.

 

This will not happen. I gayrowntee.

[Capt. Stanky]

How many more touches does MJD really need to be considered a top 3 fantasy back? Like I've stated many times, he was the #2 overall fantasy back in PPR leagues last year, if you go by total pts. I think the uptick in touches he will receive will be enough to make him more consistent than he was in the past, and that was really the only knock on his fantasy game, right? With all the question marks surrounding top RB's going into next year how many backs do the naysayers really think should justifiably be drafted before MJD?

 

C'mon naysayers! Let me hear who you would take before MJD in your fantasy drafts, or are you scared?

[keggerz]

C'mon naysayers! Let me hear who you would take before MJD in your fantasy drafts, or are you scared?

as having been one of the louder ones speaking against MJD I have to say that I cant speak up with regards to redrafts because all of my leagues are dynasty leagues (16 team IDPs or larger at that)

[Bronco Billy]

C'mon naysayers! Let me hear who you would take before MJD in your fantasy drafts, or are you scared?

 

AD

Turner

Forte

S Jax

LT

Westbrook

Portis

D Will

[WashingtonD]

AD

Turner

Forte

S Jax

LT

Westbrook

Portis

D Will

 

 

So let's assume re-draft here -

 

Yes ahead of MJD = AD, Turner, Forte, SJax, Westbrook (only in PPR)

 

Mileage problems - LT, Portis - I can't draft either one of them ahead of MJD (and westrbrook to this list if non PPR)

RBBC problem - D Will (plus I just can't fathom him recreating his career year)

 

I see MJD as a 4/5 RB in redraft...his value jumps to a clear #4 for me in dynasty/keeper leagues

[keggerz]

So let's assume re-draft here -

 

Yes ahead of MJD = AD, Turner, Forte, SJax, Westbrook (only in PPR)

 

Mileage problems - LT, Portis - I can't draft either one of them ahead of MJD (and westrbrook to this list if non PPR)

RBBC problem - D Will (plus I just can't fathom him recreating his career year)

 

I see MJD as a 4/5 RB in redraft...his value jumps to a clear #4 for me in dynasty/keeper leagues

 

 

just curious why you cant put westy ahead of MJD in a non PPR league but you can in a PPR league?

 

Westy averaged 3.86 receptions per game and 28.71 yards per game receiving last year

MJD averaged 3.88 receptions per game and 35.38 yards per game receiving last year

 

so if you would take Westy in a PPR league ahead of MJD shouldnt you also be taking him ahead of him in NON PPR leagues too

 

fwiw, imo people are gonna LOVE the value they get with guys like LT and Portis in redraft leagues.

[WashingtonD]

The reason being is that I think Westbrook will return back to the 65-70 reception area this year (much more in line with his career average) while I believe his classic rushing stats will continue to take a little bit of a beating (remaining closer to the 2008 levels)

 

It's personal opinion and gut feeling as much as anything else.

 

WD

[Bronco Billy]

So let's assume re-draft here -

 

Yes ahead of MJD = AD, Turner, Forte, SJax, Westbrook (only in PPR)

 

Mileage problems - LT, Portis - I can't draft either one of them ahead of MJD (and westrbrook to this list if non PPR)

RBBC problem - D Will (plus I just can't fathom him recreating his career year)

 

I see MJD as a 4/5 RB in redraft...his value jumps to a clear #4 for me in dynasty/keeper leagues

 

Portis has had 325+ carries in 4 of the past 5 years. MJD has never hit the 200 carry mark in his pro or college career. He's always had someone else share the load with him. Portis is also 28 years old, meaning there is no reason why he can't get to 325+ again.

 

Everyone here knows that I expect a decline from LT, but even in decline LT hits good numbers FF wise. He's not a FF God any longer, but he does qualify for top 5 or close to top 5 consideration. Plus I expect SD's D to be better, which means more work for RBs, and LT is still the guy there to take the bulk of the work until he retires.

 

As for D Will, I find it amusing that you don't expect a repeat or better for a career best for him, but you fully expect MJD to exceed his career best in RB work. How does that work one way but not the other?

 

As to Westbrook, he has outrushed MJD every year H2H in MJD's career - and Westbrook is a better receiver than MJD, and Westbrook has done this while playing in fewer games every year than MJD. Not sure why the league has to be ppr to give Westbrook a chance of producing better than MJD. A drop in MJD's gaudy TD numbers seems more likely than a Westbrook drop off.

 

Here's something else interesting: Last year MJD's carries jumped 18.0% over his previous career average, but his productiveness in rushing went down 18.2% over that same career average. In college in his last year, his carries jumped 16.3% and his production dropped 22.2% from the previous year. It could be, being a smaller RB, that with the increase in work load that his ability to produce declines. That means if people actually expect him to carry the ball even more, his productiveness could drop even further. It also means he'll be entering territory he has never been in before with that many carries, so there is no possible accurate way to predict what will happen to him with that kind of workload - and if you look at past history for any rational clue, it says he won't do as well on a per carry basis.

 

In short, I think MJD is being overvalued right now. I think Del Rio will try to protect him because of his size and how increased work affects his production, and he has a guy in Jennings who can carry some of the load. People are projecting MJD into work load territory he has never been in before, not in college or as a pro. So to think that one can accurately predict how he responds to the increase, IF it happens, is foolhardy.

Edited May 20, 2009 by Bronco Billy

[Bronco Billy]

just curious why you cant put westy ahead of MJD in a non PPR league but you can in a PPR league?

 

Westy averaged 3.86 receptions per game and 28.71 yards per game receiving last year

MJD averaged 3.88 receptions per game and 35.38 yards per game receiving last year

 

so if you would take Westy in a PPR league ahead of MJD shouldnt you also be taking him ahead of him in NON PPR leagues too

 

fwiw, imo people are gonna LOVE the value they get with guys like LT and Portis in redraft leagues.

 

Wow, beat me to the punch (again) keg. I'm with you, brother. Preach on.

[keggerz]

Here's something else interesting: Last year MJD's carries jumped 18.0% over his previous career average, but his productiveness in rushing went down 18.2% over that same career average. In college in his last year, his carries jumped 16.3% and his production dropped 22.2% from the previous year. It could be, being a smaller RB, that with the increase in work load that his ability to produce declines. That means if people actually expect him to carry the ball even more, his productiveness could drop even further. It also means he'll be entering territory he has never been in before with that many carries, so there is no possible accurate way to predict what will happen to him with that kind of workload - and if you look at past history for any rational clue, it says he won't do as well on a per carry basis.

 

In short, I think MJD is being overvalued right now. I think Del Rio will try to protect him because of his size and how increased work affects his production, and he has a guy in Jennings who can carry some of the load. People are projecting MJD into work load territory he has never been in before, not in college or as a pro. So to think that one can accurately predict how he responds to the increase, IF it happens, is foolhardy.

posted by me in post 88 in this thread

Here is some additionally interesting info I found on MJD:

 

 

Rushing Attempts 1 thru 10

2008 137 attempts, 621 yards, 4.5 ypc, 10 TDs, 37 1st downs

2007 155 attempts 673 yards. 4.3 ypc, 9 TDs, 45 1st downs

2006 118 attempts, 757 yards, 6.4 ypc, 11 TDs, 38 1st downs

 

Rushing Attempts 11 thru 20

2008 55 attempts, 193 yards, 3.5 ypc, 2 TDs , 9 1st downs

2007 26 attempts, 143 yards. 5.5 ypc, 1 TDs, 5 1st downs

2006 42 attempts, 171 yards. 4.1 ypc, 2 TDs, 7 1st downs

 

 

Rushing Attempts 21 thru 30

2008 5 attempts, 10 yards, 2.0 ypc, 0 TDs, 1 1st downs

2007 NONE in 2007

2006 6 attempts, 13 yards, 2.2 ypc, 0 TDs, 1 1st downs

 

Now lets look a bit deeper at the numbers:

2008:

carries 1-10 converted 27% of carries into 1st downs

carries 11-20 converted 16% of carries into 1st downs

carries 21-30 converted 20% of carries into 1st downs(5 carries is really to small a sample size)

 

2007:

carries 1-10 converted 29% of carries into 1st downs

carries 11-20 converted 19% of carries into 1st downs

carries 21-30 N/A NO CARRIES

 

2006:

carries 1-10 converted 32% of carries into 1st downs

carries 11-20 converted 17% of carries into 1st downs

carries 21-30 converted 17% of carries into 1st downs(again only 6 carries and that really is to small a sample size)

 

So to me it looks as if the Jags want to LIMIT MJDs effectiveness they will indeed be giving him MORE carries

[keggerz]

what i really would like to hear from people are the answers to these two questions:

 

How many rushing touches do you expect MJD to average per game this year?(just a simple numerical answer is all that is needed)

How many receptions do you think MJD reels in this year? (again just a simple numerical answer will suffice)

[Bronco Billy]

posted by me in post 88 in this thread

 

Yep, and it is consistent with his effectiveness in college also.

[Capt. Stanky]

Portis has had 325+ carries in 4 of the past 5 years. MJD has never hit the 200 carry mark in his pro or college career. He's always had someone else share the load with him. Portis is also 28 years old, meaning there is no reason why he can't get to 325+ again.

 

It was obvious that Portis really started to wear down towards the end of last year. Yes, he is 28, but that's a very old 28 in RB years. In RB years I would say he's closer to 30, 31 with the amount of carries he's had during his career. I feel that's a much better barameter for workload than age

 

Everyone here knows that I expect a decline from LT, but even in decline LT hits good numbers FF wise. He's not a FF God any longer, but he does qualify for top 5 or close to top 5 consideration. Plus I expect SD's D to be better, which means more work for RBs, and LT is still the guy there to take the bulk of the work until he retires.

 

I have no issue with you drafting LT over MJD. I too think he is very undervalued going into this year in redraft leagues.

 

As for D Will, I find it amusing that you don't expect a repeat or better for a career best for him, but you fully expect MJD to exceed his career best in RB work. How does that work one way but not the other?

 

Completely different situation than MJD. MJD has been the backup to Fred Taylor for his first 3 years. D-Will was the starter last year. D-Will has JStew lurking behind him on the depth chart, while MJD has the likes of GJones and and Rook RJennings. I don't think it's much of a leap of faith to project MJD to set career highs in carries and rushing and receiving yards. He's going to be on the field far more than he has in the past. D-Will could very well improve on his stats from last year. He was rather quiet until he exploded in the 2nd half of last year, but he has a very talented 2nd year back chomping at the bit to get in there. I believe most would expect to see a bit more of JStew this year.

 

As to Westbrook, he has outrushed MJD every year H2H in MJD's career - and Westbrook is a better receiver than MJD, and Westbrook has done this while playing in fewer games every year than MJD. Not sure why the league has to be ppr to give Westbrook a chance of producing better than MJD. A drop in MJD's gaudy TD numbers seems more likely than a Westbrook drop off.

 

I think Philly will do what they can to squeeze a couple more productive years out of Westy. The rook they drafted will get every opportunity to eat into Westbrooks workload, IMHO

 

Here's something else interesting: Last year MJD's carries jumped 18.0% over his previous career average, but his productiveness in rushing went down 18.2% over that same career average. In college in his last year, his carries jumped 16.3% and his production dropped 22.2% from the previous year. It could be, being a smaller RB, that with the increase in work load that his ability to produce declines. That means if people actually expect him to carry the ball even more, his productiveness could drop even further. It also means he'll be entering territory he has never been in before with that many carries, so there is no possible accurate way to predict what will happen to hikm with that kind of workload - and if you look at past history for any rational clue, it says he won't do as well on a per carry basis.

 

So what you're saying is that MJD has fresh legs? I'm glad he didn't get overworked in college or in the pro's to this point. I believe people were saying the same thing about Westbrook before he busted out. Just because he hasn't carried the load doesn't mean he actually can't. I think MJD has a huge chip on his shoulder. He's been told since he was a kid that he was too small to play football. He's now being given his chance to shine. I think he will rise to occassion and do whatever it takes to prove everyone wrong once again.

 

In short, I think MJD is being overvalued right now. I think Del Rio will try to protect him because of his size and how increased work affects his production, and he has a guy in Jennings who can carry some of the load. People are projecting MJD into work load territory he has never been in before, not in college or as a pro. So to think that one can accurately predict how he responds to the increase, IF it happens, is foolhardy.

 

In the end it's all just speculation, but I think the risk is far worth the reward on a 23 year old midget battering ram like MJD.

[bushwacked]

posted by me in post 88 in this thread

Here is some additionally interesting info I found on MJD:

 

 

Rushing Attempts 1 thru 10

2008 137 attempts, 621 yards, 4.5 ypc, 10 TDs, 37 1st downs

2007 155 attempts 673 yards. 4.3 ypc, 9 TDs, 45 1st downs

2006 118 attempts, 757 yards, 6.4 ypc, 11 TDs, 38 1st downs

 

Rushing Attempts 11 thru 20

2008 55 attempts, 193 yards, 3.5 ypc, 2 TDs , 9 1st downs

2007 26 attempts, 143 yards. 5.5 ypc, 1 TDs, 5 1st downs

2006 42 attempts, 171 yards. 4.1 ypc, 2 TDs, 7 1st downs

 

 

Rushing Attempts 21 thru 30

2008 5 attempts, 10 yards, 2.0 ypc, 0 TDs, 1 1st downs

2007 NONE in 2007

2006 6 attempts, 13 yards, 2.2 ypc, 0 TDs, 1 1st downs

 

Now lets look a bit deeper at the numbers:

2008:

carries 1-10 converted 27% of carries into 1st downs

carries 11-20 converted 16% of carries into 1st downs

carries 21-30 converted 20% of carries into 1st downs(5 carries is really to small a sample size)

 

2007:

carries 1-10 converted 29% of carries into 1st downs

carries 11-20 converted 19% of carries into 1st downs

carries 21-30 N/A NO CARRIES

 

2006:

carries 1-10 converted 32% of carries into 1st downs

carries 11-20 converted 17% of carries into 1st downs

carries 21-30 converted 17% of carries into 1st downs(again only 6 carries and that really is to small a sample size)

 

So to me it looks as if the Jags want to LIMIT MJDs effectiveness they will indeed be giving him MORE carries

 

Interesting, but hard for me put a lot of faith in the trend when the 11+ carry sample size is relatively minuscule. For 2008 he barely averaged over 3 carries per game in the 11-20 carry range. Is that because MJD is a first half back that tires quickly, or because Taylor was still pretty good himself?

[keggerz]

approaching 1 TD per game both running and receiving. (the part that scares me is that he's capable of getting 3 TDs in a game and leaving some crappy FF numbers in non-PPR weeks)

 

65 catches.

TOUCHES per game...not TouchDOWNS per game

[keggerz]

Interesting, but hard for me put a lot of faith in the trend when the 11+ carry sample size is relatively minuscule. For 2008 he barely averaged over 3 carries per game in the 11-20 carry range. Is that because MJD is a first half back that tires quickly, or because Taylor was still pretty good himself?

do you want it by quarter or half?

[Capt. Stanky]

what i really would like to hear from people are the answers to these two questions:

 

How many rushing touches do you expect MJD to average per game this year?(just a simple numerical answer is all that is needed)

How many receptions do you think MJD reels in this year? (again just a simple numerical answer will suffice)

 

I have no problem answering this, but Keggerz is probably getting sick of hearing from me on this subject

 

I expect 21 touches a game on avg. 17 carries and 4 receptions.

Edited May 20, 2009 by Capt. Stanky

[keggerz]

sorry killer... 14 rushing touches a game.

plus you said 65 receptions so in total you expect MJD to log 289 touches on the season

 

 

I have no problem answering this, but Keggerz is probably getting sick of hearing from me on this subject

 

I expect 21 touches a game on avg. 17 carries and 4 receptions.

you on the other hand are expecting him to log 336 touches for the season

 

and fwiw, i was pretty sure you projections were higher than that in one of these threads

Edited May 20, 2009 by keggerz

[Capt. Stanky]

you on the other hand are expecting him to log 336

 

and fwiw, i was pretty sure you projections were higher than that in one of these threads

 

I have curtailed my projections a tad, thanks to you.

 

I just don't see GJones, CWashington or RJennings eating into MJD's carries that much. Yes, he might not be quite as affective as he has been in the past, but we really don't know that yet. He's never been given the opportunity to carry the load in college or the pros. Only time will tell.

[Capt. Stanky]

My projection is for 272 carries (17 * 16 = 272) and 64 rec (4 * 16 = 64).

[Bronco Billy]

My projection is for 272 carries (17 * 16 = 272) and 64 rec (4 * 16 = 64).

 

Touches = carries + catches

 

336 = 272 + 64

 

YWIA

[Capt. Stanky]

Touches = carries + catches

 

336 = 272 + 64

 

YWIA

 

Exactly. I noticed the post indicating 300 carries are too many for anyone. I wanted to clarify that the 336 that Keggerz listed were total touches.

[keggerz]

Exactly. I noticed the post indicating 300 carries are too many for anyone. I wanted to clarify that the 336 that Keggerz listed were total touches.

i added "touches for the season" to better clarify for people

[Capt. Stanky]

Here are the total touches for 8 top backs form last year:

 

D-Will = 295

Turner = 382 (only 6 rec; RED FLAG!!!)

Forte = 379

ADP = 384

S-Jax = 293 (missed 3 full games and part of 1 more)

Portis = 370

LT= 344

TJones = 326

 

MJD = 259

 

Maybe my projections are a bit high, but as you can see it's rare for a starting RB to have less than 300 total touches.