irish Posted February 18, 2009 Author Share Posted February 18, 2009 (edited) Alright, I'll add something else. It's plain to see that MJD continues to get more and more total touches since 2006 and with the releasing of Freddy T, that trend should continue. Therefore, it's to be expected that MJD's fantasy stats also increase. Here's a quick look at MJD's fantasy points in the last 3 years ('06-'08) minus the first 2 games in '06 when he didn't get looks until the 3rd game (so 45 total games- 14 in '06, 15 in '07 and 16 in '08). 2006 23.5 14.6 17.9 19.8 12.7 10.5 16.7 14.1 23.5 10.6 31.1 23.5 35.2 16.2 Total- 269.9- 19.3 avg. per week ------------------------------------------------------ 2007 9 5.1 7.5 20.2 34.4 15.9 8.2 7.9 21.9 10.7 10.6 12.7 6.5 14.9 26 Total- 211.5- 14.1 avg. per week -------------------------------------------------- 2008 9 13.2 26.6 6.9 15 28.8 7.8 14.2 29.1 24.3 20.7 10.1 23.2 23 23.2 9.8 Total- 284.9- 17.8 avg. per week --------------------------------------------------------- In looking at those numbers, in 3 seasons, 45 total games (minus the first 2 in '06 and he missed one game in '07) MJD scored only in the single digits 9 times out of 45. He scored 20 points or more in 17 out of 45 games and had double digit points (more than 10, less than 20) in 19 games. MJD did not have a single digit point game in all of '06 after the first two games. The average weekly point production for MJD over the last 3 years for 45 games is 766.3 total points or 17.03 points per week in a PPR format. That weekly production puts him in the Top 10 last year and even a bit higher when limiting the stats to players who played 15/16 games. MJD has been very durable only missing 1 game in 3 years, although he has gotten nicked up, he's shown toughness and plays through injuries. One other concern that I would like to bring up is that MJD had 2 total fumbles in '06, 1 fumble in '07 but he had 6 fumbles last year and 5 of them occured late in the year during and after week 13. So with more touches will MJD continue to fumble more which could inevitably cause him to lose touches? However, with the stats showing what they are in terms of MJD's durability and consistency in regard to averaging a high weekly point total for the last 3 years along with the idea that his touches have increased every year and will more than likely do so again in '09, you'd have to believe that MJD is a no-brainer Top 10 RB, should push the Top 5 and dare I say has a shot to be the #1 overall RB in '09 (he was #3 in my PPR format last year). Edited February 18, 2009 by irish Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Square Posted February 18, 2009 Share Posted February 18, 2009 I especially like your points about whiffing on first round picks, Hmm... So there are people that don't whiff at first round picks? It seems to happen to me every year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Stanky Posted February 18, 2009 Share Posted February 18, 2009 (edited) Hmm... So there are people that don't whiff at first round picks? It seems to happen to me every year. I was refering to keggerz post about wanting to take a safe player with your first round pick. Like I stated, I thought Addai was the safest RB of the top 5 going into last year (LT, ADP, S-Jax, Westbrook, Addai), so you're right, nobody is perfact. Edited February 18, 2009 by Capt. Stanky Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Stanky Posted February 18, 2009 Share Posted February 18, 2009 Alright, I'll add something else. It's plain to see that MJD continues to get more and more total touches since 2006 and with the releasing of Freddy T, that trend should continue. Therefore, it's to be expected that MJD's fantasy stats also increase. Here's a quick look at MJD's fantasy points in the last 3 years ('06-'08) minus the first 2 games in '06 when he didn't get looks until the 3rd game (so 45 total games- 14 in '06, 15 in '07 and 16 in '08). 2006 23.5 14.6 17.9 19.8 12.7 10.5 16.7 14.1 23.5 10.6 31.1 23.5 35.2 16.2 Total- 269.9- 19.3 avg. per week ------------------------------------------------------ 2007 9 5.1 7.5 20.2 34.4 15.9 8.2 7.9 21.9 10.7 10.6 12.7 6.5 14.9 26 Total- 211.5- 14.1 avg. per week -------------------------------------------------- 2008 9 13.2 26.6 6.9 15 28.8 7.8 14.2 29.1 24.3 20.7 10.1 23.2 23 23.2 9.8 Total- 284.9- 17.8 avg. per week --------------------------------------------------------- In looking at those numbers, in 3 seasons, 45 total games (minus the first 2 in '06 and he missed one game in '07) MJD scored only in the single digits 9 times out of 45. He scored 20 points or more in 17 out of 45 games and had double digit points (more than 10, less than 20) in 19 games. MJD did not have a single digit point game in all of '06 after the first two games. The average weekly point production for MJD over the last 3 years for 45 games is 766.3 total points or 17.03 points per week in a PPR format. That weekly production puts him in the Top 10 last year and even a bit higher when limiting the stats to players who played 15/16 games. MJD has been very durable only missing 1 game in 3 years, although he has gotten nicked up, he's shown toughness and plays through injuries. One other concern that I would like to bring up is that MJD had 2 total fumbles in '06, 1 fumble in '07 but he had 6 fumbles last year and 5 of them occured late in the year during and after week 13. So with more touches will MJD continue to fumble more which could inevitably cause him to lose touches? However, with the stats showing what they are in terms of MJD's durability and consistency in regard to averaging a high weekly point total for the last 3 years along with the idea that his touches have increased every year and will more than likely do so again in '09, you'd have to believe that MJD is a no-brainer Top 10 RB, should push the Top 5 and dare I say has a shot to be the #1 overall RB in '09 (he was #3 in my PPR format last year). Wow, great analysis, Irish. I value the opinions on this board more than any FF magazine. Thanks for doing your homework. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Stanky Posted February 20, 2009 Share Posted February 20, 2009 Take this for what it is worth, but here's Rotoworld's most recent comment about MJD... Jaguars.com writer Vic Ketchman expects Maurice Jones-Drew's role in the return game to decrease now that he's ticketed for every-down back duties. Ketchman says MoJo will be "used extensively" in the pass game, and he's probably a safe bet for 18-24 carries a game. The Jags need a left tackle and at least two DBs and probably won't invest in a true backfield partner for MJD. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted February 20, 2009 Share Posted February 20, 2009 Take this for what it is worth, but here's Rotoworld's most recent comment about MJD... Jaguars.com writer Vic Ketchman expects Maurice Jones-Drew's role in the return game to decrease now that he's ticketed for every-down back duties. Ketchman says MoJo will be "used extensively" in the pass game, and he's probably a safe bet for 18-24 carries a game. The Jags need a left tackle and at least two DBs and probably won't invest in a true backfield partner for MJD. carries per game seem to be the easiest to toss out and yet lose some of their overall sense without being extrapolated: 18=288 24=384 the question that now needs answering is what is "used extensively" in the passing game? If it is extensive enough then that has to effect his carries because it would make sense that would take away from the running game. The other thing to look at is that as a back that will be used "extensively" in the passing game one can deduce that MJD won't be coming off the field much on 3rd downs...so my question is what % of catches and runs do people thing that MJD will garner just by playing on 3rd downs? I can tell you this....the Jags have averaged 216 3rd down plays/year for this DECADE. They have averaged 1007 offensive plays this DECADE (not sure if punts and FGs are included in that but I would assume that they are) I know that there are many out there that think the 24 carries are very probable and many of those people are expecting 60+ catches too...I just cant see MJD with over 440 offensive touches in a single year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted February 20, 2009 Share Posted February 20, 2009 I submitted a question to VIC...let's see if he answers it: Vic,How many receptions do you think that MJD is going to log this year? Can you give a high and low projection and why you think what you do? I know you said he would be used "extensively" in the passing game I am just having a hard time getting my head around what that exactly means. Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted February 20, 2009 Share Posted February 20, 2009 (edited) Here is some additionally interesting info I found on MJD: Rushing Attempts 1 thru 10 2008 137 attempts, 621 yards, 4.5 ypc, 10 TDs, 37 1st downs 2007 155 attempts 673 yards. 4.3 ypc, 9 TDs, 45 1st downs 2006 118 attempts, 757 yards, 6.4 ypc, 11 TDs, 38 1st downs Rushing Attempts 11 thru 20 2008 55 attempts, 193 yards, 3.5 ypc, 2 TDs , 9 1st downs 2007 26 attempts, 143 yards. 5.5 ypc, 1 TDs, 5 1st downs 2006 42 attempts, 171 yards. 4.1 ypc, 2 TDs, 7 1st downs Rushing Attempts 21 thru 30 2008 5 attempts, 10 yards, 2.0 ypc, 0 TDs, 1 1st downs 2007 NONE in 2007 2006 6 attempts, 13 yards, 2.2 ypc, 0 TDs, 1 1st downs Now lets look a bit deeper at the numbers: 2008: carries 1-10 converted 27% of carries into 1st downs carries 11-20 converted 16% of carries into 1st downs carries 21-30 converted 20% of carries into 1st downs(5 carries is really to small a sample size) 2007: carries 1-10 converted 29% of carries into 1st downs carries 11-20 converted 19% of carries into 1st downs carries 21-30 N/A NO CARRIES 2006: carries 1-10 converted 32% of carries into 1st downs carries 11-20 converted 17% of carries into 1st downs carries 21-30 converted 17% of carries into 1st downs(again only 6 carries and that really is to small a sample size) So to me it looks as if the Jags want to LIMIT MJDs effectiveness they will indeed be giving him MORE carries Edited February 20, 2009 by keggerz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Stanky Posted February 20, 2009 Share Posted February 20, 2009 I submitted a question to VIC...let's see if he answers it: Yeah, I think his projections are bit high myself. I don't think Jax will horse him that much, or I sure hope they don't. I doubt he would make it through the year with that much work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NAUgrad Posted February 20, 2009 Share Posted February 20, 2009 (edited) I hear you Randall, but I think his low YPC this year had more to do with the injuries on the O-line more than anything else. His 5.7 YPC his rookie year was more of a product of him bursting on the scene, and teams not knowing his strengths and weaknesses. IMHO, MJD is the safest RB after ADP. Of course I thought that Addai was the safest of the top 5 RB's last year, so take that with a grain of salt. Since MJD has never had the opportunity to carry the load you have to take a leap of faith to project his stats for next year. It sounds like I'm on one end of the spectrem while others are on the other end. I also don't agree with the durabilty issues. I'm talking 17 carries a game, that doesn't seem like too heavy of a workload. After reading this post, this is the biggest question in my mind. I still think the safest bet for the most FF numbers is AP. Then Turner, Forte and MJD in no particular order. I've always thought that MJD was really only a big play RB and couldn't be a consistent every down back, but he has proven me wrong especially last year. No doubt he is a top 5 back this year and probably top 3. Thanks for providing all of the info. BTW, I thought Addai was a lock for top 5 last year as well...........ooopppps. Edited February 20, 2009 by NAUgrad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Savage Beatings Posted February 28, 2009 Share Posted February 28, 2009 Fred Taylor now a Patriot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted May 18, 2009 Share Posted May 18, 2009 MJD will not take the role of a 20+ carry RB every game.....anyone who thinks he does will be sorely disappointed. Bump up Greg Jones. My thought as well. As intriguing as Greg Jones just might be, I think with MJD playing the TD guy that we'll be bumping up a player that isn't currently on the roster. I wouldn't be surprised to see Jones get 10-12 touches though. Looks like Jones is going to have a significant role next year, if this KFFL report is anywhere near accurate: Jaguars | Jones to see increased workload Mon, 18 May 2009 08:33:12 -0700 Paul Kuharsky, of ESPN.com, reports Jacksonville Jaguars FB Greg Jones should receive double-digit touches per game this season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted May 18, 2009 Share Posted May 18, 2009 Looks like Jones is going to have a significant role next year, if this KFFL report is anywhere near accurate: Jaguars | Jones to see increased workload Mon, 18 May 2009 08:33:12 -0700 Paul Kuharsky, of ESPN.com, reports Jacksonville Jaguars FB Greg Jones should receive double-digit touches per game this season. Okay, let me get this straight. A guy with a career 3.4 ypc who has been in the league 4 years and who started 7 games at FB last year and garnered exactly 2 carries (not 2 carries per game - 2 carries the entire SEASON) is going to suddenly jump up to double digit touches per game next season? Seems to me I've heard stories about Jones and his increased workload in seasons past... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazinib1 Posted May 18, 2009 Share Posted May 18, 2009 Okay, let me get this straight. A guy with a career 3.4 ypc who has been in the league 4 years and who started 7 games at FB last year and garnered exactly 2 carries (not 2 carries per game - 2 carries the entire SEASON) is going to suddenly jump up to double digit touches per game next season? Seems to me I've heard stories about Jones and his increased workload in seasons past... I don't take much stock into what any ESPN.com writer says about anything. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted May 18, 2009 Share Posted May 18, 2009 Okay, let me get this straight. A guy with a career 3.4 ypc who has been in the league 4 years and who started 7 games at FB last year and garnered exactly 2 carries (not 2 carries per game - 2 carries the entire SEASON) is going to suddenly jump up to double digit touches per game next season? Seems to me I've heard stories about Jones and his increased workload in seasons past... Points noted, but those four seasons were (1) injury plagued and, more importantly, (2) playing behind both Taylor and Jones-Drew. There are only so many carries to go around. I think the bulk of the new speculation (which stems from Del Rio's quotes this spring) is built around the fact that Taylor is gone, and with the league leaning towards 60/40 RBBC splits, that Jones appears to be inl ine for an increased workload. 6-8 rushes per game, and 1-3 receptions,for a change of pace back doesn't appear to be extraordinary. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted May 18, 2009 Share Posted May 18, 2009 Points noted, but those four seasons were (1) injury plagued and, more importantly, (2) playing behind both Taylor and Jones-Drew. There are only so many carries to go around. I think the bulk of the new speculation (which stems from Del Rio's quotes this spring) is built around the fact that Taylor is gone, and with the league leaning towards 60/40 RBBC splits, that Jones appears to be inl ine for an increased workload. 6-8 rushes per game, and 1-3 receptions,for a change of pace back doesn't appear to be extraordinary. With Taylor gone, JAX only needs to replace 143 carries and 16 receptions to cover his numbers. Figuring Jones-Drew to see his workload increase 15% since he'll be the starter and stud RB (and the 15% increase gets him to only 14 rushes per game), Jones-Drew takes up 30 rushes and 9 catches from Taylor's total. That leaves 113 carries and 7 catches to match Taylor's numbers. Rashad Jennings looks like a better bet to pick up the majority of thet workload as opposed to Jones, unless Jennings is a complete bust. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Ernie McCracken Posted May 18, 2009 Share Posted May 18, 2009 (edited) Looks like Jones is going to have a significant role next year, if this KFFL report is anywhere near accurate: Jaguars | Jones to see increased workload Mon, 18 May 2009 08:33:12 -0700 Paul Kuharsky, of ESPN.com, reports Jacksonville Jaguars FB Greg Jones should receive double-digit touches per game this season. I'm probably not going to sweat a dude whose five year NFL career has accumulated 302 total touches, not to mention the two reconstuctive knee surgeries. Nice try though Edited May 18, 2009 by Big Ernie McCracken Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted May 18, 2009 Share Posted May 18, 2009 With Taylor gone, JAX only needs to replace 143 carries and 16 receptions to cover his numbers. Figuring Jones-Drew to see his workload increase 15% since he'll be the starter and stud RB (and the 15% increase gets him to only 14 rushes per game), Jones-Drew takes up 30 rushes and 9 catches from Taylor's total. That leaves 113 carries and 7 catches to match Taylor's numbers. Rashad Jennings looks like a better bet to pick up the majority of thet workload as opposed to Jones, unless Jennings is a complete bust. I guess we'll see, but I am guessing they'll be better than last year's 5-11 record, not be behind in as many games, and not be forced to abandon the run as frequently. Thus, there should be more rushes to go around than last year. Also note that in 2008, they played 6 games against TEN, PIT, BAL, CHI & MIN, 5 of the top 6 teams in terms of defending the run. I imagine that had a lot to do with their low rush totals...they were 0-6 in those contests, & lost by double-digits in 5 of them. I am guessing they abandoned the run earlier than normal in all of them. I figure MJD to get 15-17 rushes per game, and whoever his RBBC might be to get an additional 8-10. That would equate to 23-27 total RB rushes per game. Last year, JAX ran the ball 26.6 times per game. Take out Garrard, and the number is just 22 times per game (which puts them at 29th in the NFL in non-QB rushes per game). I think they get back more to the norm, which is about 26 RB rushes per game. I also think the rookie will have to wait behind a four-year player that knows and understands all the blocking and blitz-protection schemes. I see Jones as a bigger part of the offenseive scheme early, and if he performs, continuing that role as the season progresses. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted May 18, 2009 Share Posted May 18, 2009 (edited) I guess we'll see, but I am guessing they'll be better than last year's 5-11 record, not be behind in as many games, and not be forced to abandon the run as frequently. Thus, there should be more rushes to go around than last year. Also note that in 2008, they played 6 games against TEN, PIT, BAL, CHI & MIN, 5 of the top 6 teams in terms of defending the run. I imagine that had a lot to do with their low rush totals...they were 0-6 in those contests, & lost by double-digits in 5 of them. I am guessing they abandoned the run earlier than normal in all of them. I figure MJD to get 15-17 rushes per game, and whoever his RBBC might be to get an additional 8-10. That would equate to 23-27 total RB rushes per game. Last year, JAX ran the ball 26.6 times per game. Take out Garrard, and the number is just 22 times per game (which puts them at 29th in the NFL in non-QB rushes per game). I think they get back more to the norm, which is about 26 RB rushes per game. I also think the rookie will have to wait behind a four-year player that knows and understands all the blocking and blitz-protection schemes. I see Jones as a bigger part of the offenseive scheme early, and if he performs, continuing that role as the season progresses. carry the torch my friend for a bit as I am tired.... TEAM Rushes*: 08:426 07:522 06:513 05:502 04:446 TOTAL: 2409 rushes (30.11/game) *Includes QB carries fwiw: Greg Jones had 151carries for 575yds 3.8ypc in 2005 Edited May 18, 2009 by keggerz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irish Posted May 18, 2009 Author Share Posted May 18, 2009 Rashad Jennings should have a solid rookie year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H8tank Posted May 18, 2009 Share Posted May 18, 2009 Paul Kuharsky, of ESPN.com, reports Jacksonville Jaguars FB Greg Jones should receive double-digit touches per game this season. He is simply regurgitating crap from drew rosenhouse, this is wishful thinking. I really hope all you guys draft greg jones, Please. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Posted May 18, 2009 Share Posted May 18, 2009 He is simply regurgitating crap from drew rosenhouse, this is wishful thinking. I really hope all you guys draft greg jones, Please. That is a little high. Del Rio said 7-10 carries I think. I got him off waivers for $1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted May 19, 2009 Share Posted May 19, 2009 He is simply regurgitating crap from drew rosenhouse, this is wishful thinking. I really hope all you guys draft greg jones, Please. No one is saying draft Greg Jones. The point of topic is that MJD will be lucky to get 20+ carries, as many who think he'll be a top-3 RB beleive will happen. Between Jones and the rookie, it just won't happen. Del Rio is iterating that RBBC (to a minor degree), will be the norm, and the writer is opining that it will be Jones that gets the bulk of those extra 8-10 carries a game. Not sure what the fuss is? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted May 19, 2009 Share Posted May 19, 2009 No one is saying draft Greg Jones. The point of topic is that MJD will be lucky to get 20+ carries, as many who think he'll be a top-3 RB beleive will happen. Between Jones and the rookie, it just won't happen. Del Rio is iterating that RBBC (to a minor degree), will be the norm, and the writer is opining that it will be Jones that gets the bulk of those extra 8-10 carries a game. Not sure what the fuss is? I have said that I think JOnes will present very good/great value in drafts this year....alos said that I don't believe that Jennings(the rook) will be the one sharing the bulk of the carries with MJD...also DelRio is on record saying that Jones will get 5-10 carries/game(that link is in one of these threads and was about 2 weeks prior to the draft) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Irish Doggy Posted May 19, 2009 Share Posted May 19, 2009 (edited) I like Jones OK, but I'm not sold. It still would not surprise me to see the Jags make a trade or grab a FA after the summer cuts. Bottom line, I just don't believe the Jags are stupid enough to give MJD the touches it will take to make him a top 3 pick. Edited May 19, 2009 by The Irish Doggy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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