The Jaguars released Fred Taylor.

[Capt. Stanky]

I'm sorry everytime you post I fail to read it. Your avatar is mesmerizing.

 

People better start paying attention to my posts, or I might have to change my avatar

[tazinib1]

There goes that hawt chick again. Did you guys see that?

[irish]

Here are some conservative projections from my end:

 

17 carrie avg per game = 272 carries on the year.

4.2 YPC @ 272 carries = 1142 yds

 

70 rec for 600 yds

 

12 total TD's

 

Like I said, these are conservative projections, but they sure look like top 5 #'s to me.

 

MJD just set record highs for himself in '08 for carries 197 (30 more than in '07), receptions- 62 (16 more than in '06), receiving yards- 565 (129 more than in '06) and total yards with 1,389 (12 more than in '06). He had 14 total TDs (one less then his season best 15 in '06) and 824 yards rushing (2nd best after his 941 yards in '06). MJD finished as the 3rd overall RB in my PPR league behind only Williams and Forte. He would've still been in as a Top 10 RB even in Non-PPR leagues. When Freddy T was the starting back in Jacksonville, sharing with MJD, he was averaging almost 230 carries, 1,175 rushing yards, and he had more receptions in '06 and a lot less looks in that department in '07 when MJD took over that role primarily. I think Capt. Stanky does a pretty good job of projecting out MJD for '09, however, he may have gone a bit high IMO when it comes to carries. I think it could look something more like this-

 

235 carries- about 15 carries a game with a YPC average of 4.0 (I assume that his ypc will dip with more work and he had a 4.2 ypc avg last year). Therefore, that's about 940 rushing yards. I'll tack on 12 or 13 rushing TDs. Stanky's 70 receptions for 600 yards is pretty solid as I expect a slight uptick in receptions as well. Therefore, I will go with the 70 receptions for 665 yards (9.5 ypc and he's averaged 9.73... for his career) and 2-3 more receiving TDs.

 

So that's 235 carries for 940 rushing yards and 13 TDs, 70 receptions for 665 receiving yards and 2 more TDs. 305 total touches for 1,605 yards and 15 total TDs. 250.5 pts in a Non-PPR league (would equate to about a Top 5 RB this past year) and 320.5 pts in a PPR league (would equate to the #1 overall RB this past year in PPR formats).

 

So asking the question, Who else would you really take after ADP in the '09 redrafts? is a very vaild question. And even ADP wasn't the #1 overall RB, he finished #9 in my PPR league and didn't miss any games. Of course Chester Taylor was hogging alot of receptions finishing with more than double the receptions that ADP had and about 20% of the total rushing attempts.

 

Could MJD actually be the #1 overall RB in Fantasy Football in '09?

[Randall]

I just don't understand the haters.

 

 

Knowing a players limits isn't hating. I would think MJD owners would want him to stay on the field. If he does too much and is hurt you won't get anything.

 

Most have noticed his downturn in YPC as the carries went up and project out from there.

 

The Jags would be smart to start off slow and slowly give him more carries while monitoring his capacity.

[Capt. Stanky]

Knowing a players limits isn't hating. I would think MJD owners would want him to stay on the field. If he does too much and is hurt you won't get anything.

 

Most have noticed his downturn in YPC as the carries went up and project out from there.

 

The Jags would be smart to start off slow and slowly give him more carries while monitoring his capacity.

 

 

I hear you Randall, but I think his low YPC this year had more to do with the injuries on the O-line more than anything else. His 5.7 YPC his rookie year was more of a product of him bursting on the scene, and teams not knowing his strengths and weaknesses. IMHO, MJD is the safest RB after ADP. Of course I thought that Addai was the safest of the top 5 RB's last year, so take that with a grain of salt. Since MJD has never had the opportunity to carry the load you have to take a leap of faith to project his stats for next year. It sounds like I'm on one end of the spectrem while others are on the other end. I also don't agree with the durabilty issues. I'm talking 17 carries a game, that doesn't seem like too heavy of a workload.

Edited February 18, 2009 by Capt. Stanky

[Big John]

People better start paying attention to my posts, or I might have to change my avatar

You mean brack to Rainn Wilson?

[Randall]

I hear you Randall, but I think his low YPC this year had more to do with the injuries on the O-line more than anything else. His 5.7 YPC his rookie year was more of a product of him bursting on the scene, and teams not knowing his strengths and weaknesses. IMHO, MJD is the safest RB after ADP. Of course I thought that Addai was the safest of the top 5 RB's last year, so take that with a grain of salt. Since MJD has never had the opportunity to carry the load you have to take a leap of faith to project his stats for next year. It sounds like I'm on one end of the spectrem while others are on the other end. I also don't agree with the durabilty issues. I'm talking 17 carries a game, that doesn't seem like too heavy of a workload.

 

 

You may be right. During his rookie year didn't he have over 200 yards against the Colts? That would increase his average too.

 

Since he will be the starter any projections are educated guesses partly based on the history of players his size but they are guesses.

 

17 seems OK if he can avoid direct hits. I'd like to see 14 carries and 3-5 receptions. Del Rio is saying Greg Jones would get 5-10 carries.

[keggerz]

13 carries per game?

 

I'm looking forward to your explanation.

1st let me say that I have done some research in the past that showed that as things seem to change due to players and schemes etc they actually tend to stay pretty consistent with their historical averages...I wont be providing that info now so you will just have to either A. take my word for it or B. do a search of my old posts since I think I posted something about this before (definitely did something about the Jax WRs a year or two ago).

 

Jacksonville Rushing stats for the past 5 years(3 would probably be a bit of a better indicator but the difference would be pretty nominal) also I didnt include the handful of rushing attempts by WRs.

Stats, you just have to change the YEAR to get the info

 

TEAM Rushes:

08:426

07:522

06:513

05:502

04:446

TOTAL: 2409 rushes (30.11/game)

 

Rushes Broken down a bit:(Top 2 Rushers listed 1st, RBs are carries by all other RBs on the roster not including the top 2)

08(46%/34% - % of total rushes for the 1st and 2nd leading rushers)

197 MJD

143 Fred Taylor

75 QBs

8 RBs

 

07(43%/32%)

223 Fred Taylor

167 MJD

68 QBs

55 RBs

 

06(45%/32%)

231 Fred Taylor

166 MJD

74 QBs

30 RBs

 

05(39%/30%)

194 Fred Taylor

151 GREG JONES

65 QBs

78 RBs

 

04(58%/14%)

260 Fred Taylor

62 Greg Jones (Rookie Year)

51 QBs

71 RBs

 

04-09 totals / per season averages

RB 1: 1105 / 221 (13.8/game) 46%

RB 2: 689 / 138 (8.6/game)29%

QBs: 333 / 67 14%

RBs: 242 / 48 10%

 

A few things to take note of our the outliers:

1. the 62 carries by Greg Jones in 04 looks to really skews the 2nd running back stats

but the RB2 average would be 157/year (9.8/game) without that year in the numbers only a difference of

1.2 carries/game.

2. Fred Taylors 58% of carries in 04 pushes the total 5 year average up 3% so without 04 the RB1 % would be 43% vs the 46%

3. The 8 carries by the RBs not named Taylor or MJD in 08 pulls the totals for RBs down 10.1/year (.63/game)

 

Even looking at the outliers it is easy to see that as big a difference as they are comparatively to the other years they aren't big enough that I am

going to pull them out so that will HELP MJDs numbers that I present:

 

5 year average for the Jags rushing game::

482 carries / 30.11/game

RB1 221 / 13.8/game

RB2 138 / 8.6/game

QBs 67 /4.2/game

RBs 48 / 3/game

 

 

Now for my projections basing it largely on what the historical averages show.

 

2009 Jacksonville Rushing game:

480 carries (30/game)

RB1: 231 (14.4/game) I can see this topping out at 250 but not a carry more and would be very surprised to see the 250

RB2: 130 (8.1/game) Could see this hitting 145 but doubt it gets much higher and on the low end would be 110 carries.

QBs: 75 (4.7/game)

RBs:44 (2.8/game)

 

RB1s 231 would be equal to 48%

RB2s 130 would be equal to 27%

QBs: 75 would be equal to 16%

RBs: 44 would be equal to 9%

 

My initial 221 was based strictly off of the 5 year average and the more I look at it I think that MJD gets a small uptick over that based on the fact that while I think Greg Jones is going to be more than a serviceable back he doesn't have the same talent that Fred or MJD brought to the RB2 spot...but with that said I think Jones will be a very nice value in drafts this year. The other thing is that currently the #3 RB Chauncy Davis is a 2nd year player with an entire 4 carries in his career and Montel Owens is going to be a 4th year FB that has all of 2 carries....That fact alone makes the 44 carries for RBs a bit dicey but I have read that the Jags like Chauncey Washington so I could see him getting enough touches to make the 44 a reality...also I wouldnt be surprised to see the Jags bring in a vet back to help with the 3/4 RB spots which would easily help to get to the 44 carries.

 

Now back to MJD...each of the past 3 years he has seen his carries increase and his YPC decrease(down to 4.2 last year)....

I will be generous and say MJD averages 4.2 again this year.

231 carries at 4.2 = 970 yards

 

As I said earlier I think that relying on double digit TDs for his production is a dicey situation...when I take a RB early in the draft I would much rather know that they are going to get my 1200-1500 rushing yards because if their team has Red Zone troubles then the sting isnt so bad if they only score 5-6 TDs.

 

As far as Receptions go...MJD did have 62 catches last year and has averaged 49/year since entering the league.

A few things we know....last year the Jags WRs were pretty horrible and the OL sure didnt help the passing game at all.

I am sure many like myself expected a much better year from the Jags last year and the fact that they sucked so bad really had an impact

on how much they were able to run the ball....I would like to say I expect them to improve this year but I don't think there will be much improvement

based mainly on their current lack of receivers. That imo is going to hurt the passing game which in turn will hurt the running game some too.

 

Of course there is a ton of things that can happen to help the WR corps and depth at RB too...and depending on those things my projections could change but still I cant see them changing very much.

 

Also fwiw this decade MJD is the only RB on the Jags to every eclipse the 50 reception mark(Fred Taylor did have 48 and 49 in back to back years)

So for MJD I am going to project that he does slightly better than his career average and posts 55 receptions with an average of 9yds/catch for 495 yards....I guess I could see MJD post more catches than last year but I would doubt he could hit 70 receptions but even if he did that would only add 135 yards to his total

 

so here is the final projections for MJD:

231 carries for 970 yards 7 TDs

55 catches for 495 yards 1 TD

total yards rushing/receiving 1465 with 8 TDs

Fantasy Points scored:

Non PPR: 194.5 (not in any non PPR leagues so I don't know where this would have ranked)

PPR (.5/recp) 222 (would have ranked 12th last year)

PPR (1/recp) 249.5 (not in any 1/recp leagues so I don't know where this would have ranked)

 

now if you think that MJD can reach 15+ TDs then I can see why you or anyone else would want to rank him in the top 5. Also if the Jags do bring in a vet or whatever other RB with pass catching skills I could see MJD taking a hit with his receptions and backing into around 40ish catches

Edited February 18, 2009 by keggerz

[keggerz]

13 carries per game?

 

I'm looking forward to your explanation.

actually 221=13.8/game and I adjusted my projection to 231(14.4/game) which isn't much of an increase.

[tazinib1]

1st let me say that I have done some research in the past that showed that as things seem to change due to players and schemes etc they actually tend to stay pretty consistent with their historical averages...I wont be providing that info now so you will just have to either A. take my word for it or B. do a search of my old posts since I think I posted something about this before (definitely did something about the Jax WRs a year or two ago).

 

Jacksonville Rushing stats for the past 5 years(3 would probably be a bit of a better indicator but the difference would be pretty nominal) also I didnt include the handful of rushing attempts by WRs.

Stats, you just have to change the YEAR to get the info

 

TEAM Rushes:

08:426

07:522

06:513

05:502

04:446

TOTAL: 2409 rushes (30.11/game)

 

Rushes Broken down a bit:(Top 2 Rushers listed 1st, RBs are carries by all other RBs on the roster not including the top 2)

08(46%/34% - % of total rushes for the 1st and 2nd leading rushers)

197 MJD

143 Fred Taylor

75 QBs

8 RBs

 

07(43%/32%)

223 Fred Taylor

167 MJD

68 QBs

55 RBs

 

06(45%/32%)

231 Fred Taylor

166 MJD

74 QBs

30 RBs

 

05(39%/30%)

194 Fred Taylor

151 GREG JONES

65 QBs

78 RBs

 

04(58%/14%)

260 Fred Taylor

62 Greg Jones (Rookie Year)

51 QBs

71 RBs

 

04-09 totals / per season averages

RB 1: 1105 / 221 (13.8/game) 46%

RB 2: 689 / 138 (8.6/game)29%

QBs: 333 / 67 14%

RBs: 242 / 48 10%

 

A few things to take note of our the outliers:

1. the 62 carries by Greg Jones in 04 looks to really skews the 2nd running back stats

but the RB2 average would be 157/year (9.8/game) without that year in the numbers only a difference of

1.2 carries/game.

2. Fred Taylors 58% of carries in 04 pushes the total 5 year average up 3% so without 04 the RB1 % would be 43% vs the 46%

3. The 8 carries by the RBs not named Taylor or MJD in 08 pulls the totals for RBs down 10.1/year (.63/game)

 

Even looking at the outliers it is easy to see that as big a difference as they are comparatively to the other years they aren't big enough that I am

going to pull them out so that will HELP MJDs numbers that I present:

 

5 year average for the Jags rushing game::

482 carries / 30.11/game

RB1 221 / 13.8/game

RB2 138 / 8.6/game

QBs 67 /4.2/game

RBs 48 / 3/game

 

 

Now for my projections basing it largely on what the historical averages show.

 

2009 Jacksonville Rushing game:

480 carries (30/game)

RB1: 231 (14.4/game) I can see this topping out at 250 but not a carry more and would be very surprised to see the 250

RB2: 130 (8.1/game) Could see this hitting 145 but doubt it gets much higher and on the low end would be 110 carries.

QBs: 75 (4.7/game)

RBs:44 (2.8/game)

 

RB1s 231 would be equal to 48%

RB2s 130 would be equal to 27%

QBs: 75 would be equal to 16%

RBs: 44 would be equal to 9%

 

My initial 221 was based strictly off of the 5 year average and the more I look at it I think that MJD gets a small uptick over that based on the fact that while I think Greg Jones is going to be more than a serviceable back he doesn't have the same talent that Fred or MJD brought to the RB2 spot...but with that said I think Jones will be a very nice value in drafts this year. The other thing is that currently the #3 RB Chauncy Davis is a 2nd year player with an entire 4 carries in his career and Montel Owens is going to be a 4th year FB that has all of 2 carries....That fact alone makes the 44 carries for RBs a bit dicey but I have read that the Jags like Chauncey Washington so I could see him getting enough touches to make the 44 a reality...also I wouldnt be surprised to see the Jags bring in a vet back to help with the 3/4 RB spots which would easily help to get to the 44 carries.

 

Now back to MJD...each of the past 3 years he has seen his carries increase and his YPC decrease(down to 4.2 last year)....

I will be generous and say MJD averages 4.2 again this year.

231 carries at 4.2 = 970 yards

 

As I said earlier I think that relying on double digit TDs for his production is a dicey situation...when I take a RB early in the draft I would much rather know that they are going to get my 1200-1500 rushing yards because if their team has Red Zone troubles then the sting isnt so bad if they only score 5-6 TDs.

 

As far as Receptions go...MJD did have 62 catches last year and has averaged 49/year since entering the league.

A few things we know....last year the Jags WRs were pretty horrible and the OL sure didnt help the passing game at all.

I am sure many like myself expected a much better year from the Jags last year and the fact that they sucked so bad really had an impact

on how much they were able to run the ball....I would like to say I expect them to improve this year but I don't think there will be much improvement

based mainly on their current lack of receivers. That imo is going to hurt the passing game which in turn will hurt the running game some too.

 

Of course there is a ton of things that can happen to help the WR corps and depth at RB too...and depending on those things my projections could change but still I cant see them changing very much.

 

Also fwiw this decade MJD is the only RB on the Jags to every eclipse the 50 reception mark(Fred Taylor did have 48 and 49 in back to back years)

So for MJD I am going to project that he does slightly better than his career average and posts 55 receptions with an average of 9yds/catch for 495 yards....I guess I could see MJD post more catches than last year but I would doubt he could hit 70 receptions but even if he did that would only add 135 yards to his total

 

so here is the final projections for MJD:

231 carries for 970 yards 7 TDs

55 catches for 495 yards 1 TD

total yards rushing/receiving 1465 with 8 TDs

Fantasy Points scored:

Non PPR: 194.5 (not in any non PPR leagues so I don't know where this would have ranked)

PPR (.5/recp) 222 (would have ranked 12th last year)

PPR (1/recp) 249.5 (not in any 1/recp leagues so I don't know where this would have ranked)

 

now if you think that MJD can reach 15+ TDs then I can see why you or anyone else would want to rank him in the top 5. Also if the Jags do bring in a vet or whatever other RB with pass catching skills I could see MJD taking a hit with his receptions and backing into around 40ish catches

 

 

That's one of the best breakdowns I've seen. Well done.

 

As an MJD owner, I hope you are wrong.

[keggerz]

13 carries per game?

 

I'm looking forward to your explanation.

actually 221=13.8/game and I adjusted my projection to 231(14.4/game) which isn't much of an increase.

 

also if anyone is interested here is the link to the Jacksonville WR/Receiver projections I did in 2006 that i was referring to http://forums.thehuddle.com/index.php?s=&a...t&p=1614281

[keggerz]

Here are some conservative projections from my end:

 

17 carrie avg per game = 272 carries on the year.

4.2 YPC @ 272 carries = 1142 yds

 

70 rec for 600 yds

 

12 total TD's

 

Like I said, these are conservative projections, but they sure look like top 5 #'s to me.

But that is just it...those are NOT conservative projections:

 

Rushing attempts would be the 4th highest in Jax history(since 1995)

Pass Receptions by a RB would be highest ever for Jax in their history

Pass Recv Yards by a RB would be the highest ever for Jax in their history

 

that makes those projections FAR from conservative

Edited February 18, 2009 by keggerz

[Capt. Stanky]

Thank you, keggerz. You backed your side of the argument valiantly, and I can appreciate that. There are a few things I have issue with though. You have MJD projected for 8 TD's. His worse statistical year has been 9, and now he's going to shoulder more of the load. Even last year he had 14 total TD's while Jacksonville struggled on offense and defense for most of the year. Personally, I think MJD is the best goaline back in the biz. I feel his low center of gravity gives him a huge advantage over the competition in short yardage situations. If he can't push the pile then he can just sneak through a crack. TD's are a very difficult stat to predict since it hinges on team success more than anything else, but if you go by history I don't see how you could project him with less than 10. I also don't really understand why you dropped his rec as compared to last year. The bottom line is he's going to be on the field more, so he should have more opportunity's to catch the ball.

[Capt. Stanky]

But that is just it...those are NOT conservative projections:

 

Rushing attempts would be the highest in Xyears(coming soon)

Pass Receptions by a RB would be highest ever(without even checking but i will)

Pass Recv Yards by a RB would be the X highest ever for Jax(checking)

 

that makes those projections FAR from conservative

 

You're not taking the most important factor into consideration. This is the first year in your 4 year projections there's been no Fred Taylor. I understand your logic with RB1, RB2, QB & RB3 projections, but Jacksonville just lost a possible hall of famer in Freddy T. I think you lose site of the players ability when you breakdown the stats like that. I'm of the opinion that we've only seen the tip of the iceberg with Pocket Hercules. I guess we'll just have to wait and see who's right.

[irish]

Thank you, keggerz. You backed your side of the argument valiantly, and I can appreciate that. There are a few things I have issue with though. You have MJD projected for 8 TD's. His worse statistical year has been 9, and now he's going to shoulder more of the load. Even last year he had 14 total TD's while Jacksonville struggled on offense and defense for most of the year. Personally, I think MJD is the best goaline back in the biz. I feel his low center of gravity gives him a huge advantage over the competition in short yardage situations. If he can't push the pile then he can just sneak through a crack. TD's are a very difficult stat to predict since it hinges on team success more than anything else, but if you go by history I don't see how you could project him with less than 10. I also don't really understand why you dropped his rec as compared to last year. The bottom line is he's going to be on the field more, so he should have more opportunity's to catch the ball.

 

I happen to agree with you for the most part. Especially when it comes to the TDs. The only thing I think can affect MJD's TD total is the idea that Greg Jones could vulture more TDs than Freddy T did and maybe that's how Keggerz feels as well.

 

You're not taking the most important factor into consideration. This is the first year in your 4 year projections there's been no Fred Taylor. I understand your logic with RB1, RB2, QB & RB3 projections, but Jacksonville just lost a possible hall of famer in Freddy T. I think you lose site of the players ability when you breakdown the stats like that. I'm of the opinion that we've only seen the tip of the iceberg with Pocket Hercules. I guess we'll just have to wait and see who's right.

 

That's my feeling as well that with such a proven vet in Freddy T now gone, I feel MJD picks up more of the slack, even if only slightly. That's why I think about 235 carries up from a career high of 197 and 70 receptions up from a career high of 62 are reasonable. If the Jags are able to land anything solid at WR though, I agree with Keg in that his receptions could drop to the 40-50 range.

Edited February 18, 2009 by irish

[keggerz]

But that is just it...those are NOT conservative projections:

 

Rushing attempts would be the 4th highest in Jax history(since 1995)

Pass Receptions by a RB would be highest ever for Jax in their history

Pass Recv Yards by a RB would be the highest ever for Jax in their history

 

that makes those projections FAR from conservative

as far as TDs go...the Jags have played 14 seasons in the NFL and in 7 of those years they have had a RB score double digit TDs:

 

98: 17 Fred Taylor

06: 15 MJD

08: 14 MJD

00: 14 Fred Taylor

99: 13 James Stewart

96: 10 James Stewart

01: 10 Stacey Mack

 

and you are projecting MJD for 12 so I don't know that I would call it conservative...i would say it is achievable but not conservative

[Capt. Stanky]

272 Rushing attempts would be the 4th highest in Jax history(since 1995)

 

I assume you're talking about total team rushing attempts and I don't follow you there. You're not factoring in the talent of a player. What about 2003 when Fred Taylor had 365 rushing attempts? I think MJD is a special talent, therefore I don't think you can focus to much on total carry distribution. 272 might be too high, but Jax will make sure to get their best offensive weapon the ball, much like Philly does with Westbrook.

[irish]

I assume you're talking about total team rushing attempts and I don't follow you there. You're not factoring in the talent of a player. What about 2003 when Fred Taylor had 365 rushing attempts? I think MJD is a special talent, therefore I don't think you can focus to much on total carry distribution. 272 might be too high, but Jax will make sure to get their best offensive weapon the ball, much like Philly does with Westbrook.

 

I think the 272 rushing attempts that Keg refered to as being the 4th highest in Jag history would be refering to your projection of just MJD for next year and not the entire team.

[keggerz]

You're not taking the most important factor into consideration. This is the first year in your 4 year projections there's been no Fred Taylor. I understand your logic with RB1, RB2, QB & RB3 projections, but Jacksonville just lost a possible hall of famer in Freddy T. I think you lose site of the players ability when you breakdown the stats like that. I'm of the opinion that we've only seen the tip of the iceberg with Pocket Hercules. I guess we'll just have to wait and see who's right.

2008 for Fred T

Fred Taylor 143 carries 556 yards 3.9ypc 1TDs

 

I know what Fred was and what they are losing....I think the Jones does do more than what most will expect...I just dont see the historical data to say that MJD is going to approach 270-300 rushes and imo, TDs are almost as hard to predict as INTs are for defensive players...that is why I think there is some risk with MJD as high as the #5 pick...when it comes to first rounders especially early ones what you need is safe solid production with good upside...you cant afford to whiff and a guy that could end up with close to 200 rushes then 270 is going to be a whiff more often than not if you are banking on double digit TDs to bail you out....all I am saying is that there is reason for pause and concern and I wouldnt be so quick to anoint MJD as a top 5 draft pick

[keggerz]

I think the 272 rushing attempts that Keg refered to as being the 4th highest in Jag history would be refering to your projection of just MJD for next year and not the entire team.

correct...and fwiw things are MUCH different in the NFL for RBs from when fred taylor logged his 365 rushing attempts(yes 6 years is a long time in the NFL)...teams have gone to multi back attacks because it works and we all know it is a copy cat league...just look at what all those carries did to a horse like LJ

Edited February 18, 2009 by keggerz

[Capt. Stanky]

I think the 272 rushing attempts that Keg refered to as being the 4th highest in Jag history would be refering to your projection of just MJD for next year and not the entire team.

 

Ah, gotcha. My bad then. I'm loving the debate though, keggerz. Keep it coming.

[keggerz]

Ah, gotcha. My bad then. I'm loving the debate though, keggerz. Keep it coming.

nah, i am done...i think i got my point/thoughts across

[Capt. Stanky]

2008 for Fred T

Fred Taylor 143 carries 556 yards 3.9ypc 1TDs

 

I know what Fred was and what they are losing....I think the Jones does do more than what most will expect...I just dont see the historical data to say that MJD is going to approach 270-300 rushes and imo, TDs are almost as hard to predict as INTs are for defensive players...that is why I think there is some risk with MJD as high as the #5 pick...when it comes to first rounders especially early ones what you need is safe solid production with good upside...you cant afford to whiff and a guy that could end up with close to 200 rushes then 270 is going to be a whiff more often than not if you are banking on double digit TDs to bail you out....all I am saying is that there is reason for pause and concern and I wouldnt be so quick to anoint MJD as a top 5 draft pick

 

Very valid points, keggerz. I especially like your points about whiffing on first round picks, and the fact that the majority of teams are going to a committee approach. I just feel like all other RB's, besides ADP, have more question marks than MJD. Like I've stated before, MJD was #2 in total pts in a standard PPR league last year. Some of that has to do with the fact that RB numbers were down in general, but that might not be a trend with the committee approach most teams are taking. With MJD you have a clear cut #1 RB. Greg Jones will get carries, but the only proven commodity that Jax has at RB right now is MJD.

[Capt. Stanky]

nah, i am done...i think i got my point/thoughts across

 

You think you're done? What can I say that will rial you up? Should I start with the momma jokes?

 

[tazinib1]

nah, i am done...i think i got my point/thoughts across

 

Invent something. I'm enjoying the...ummmmm...discussion. Yeah thats it...the discussion.