2009 Tour de France thread

[Chavez]

"Best odds" from Oddschecker.com:

 

 

 

Alberto Contador 11/10

Lance Armstrong 11/2

Andy Schleck 15/2

Cadel Evans 10:1

Denis Menchov 16:1

Carlos Sastre 22:1

Levi Leipheimer 33:1

Roman Kreuziger 50:1

Michael Rogers 80:1

Frank Schleck 80:1

Luis Leon Sanchez 100:1

Robert Gesink 100:1

Andreas Kloden 100:1

Christian Vandevelde 100:1

Vincenzo Nibali 125:1

 

Anyone betting on Lance is just foolish; I see him more as an elite road captain caddying for Contador.

 

Cadel Evans doesn't have enough of a team around him. I don't see Cervelo having enough horses to support Sastre's repeat bid either.

 

Leipheimer just doesn't have a GC in him, IMO, neither does Frank Schleck. Schleck, Leipheimer, and Kloden all suffer from the problem of being no better than 3rd banana on their respective teams.

 

Saxobank and Astana have absolute monster squads; the time is now for Andy Schleck. Anyone other than Schleck or Contador would be an upset, IMO.

[detlef]

My Bicycling Magazine Tour issue showed up yesterday but I hadn't gotten a chance to sit down and read it yet.

 

Of course the headline was, "Can Lance Win It?" Which is a great lead because the answer could simply be no and yet the headline implies hope.

[Chavez]

My Bicycling Magazine Tour issue showed up yesterday but I hadn't gotten a chance to sit down and read it yet.

 

Of course the headline was, "Can Lance Win It?" Which is a great lead because the answer could simply be no and yet the headline implies hope.

If Lance wins it I'll be a yellow USPS jersey and eat it.

[Azazello1313]

Anyone betting on Lance is just foolish

 

maybe. but I dunno. good climbers in that field, but few elite time trialers at the top of the GC field. seems to me like it gives lance an opening if there's not one guy who can kick everyone else's ass in the mountains (contador might be able to do just that). I just don't think you can count lance out.

[geeteebee]

Wow, they allready have odds for next year's race?

[Chavez]

Wow, they allready have odds for next year's race?

 

Ya know, I've been making that 09/10 mistake for about a week now and was thinking "okay Chavez, don't make that mistake in the thread title."

 

As Ron White says, ya can't fix stupid.

[Chavez]

maybe. but I dunno. good climbers in that field, but few elite time trialers at the top of the GC field. seems to me like it gives lance an opening if there's not one guy who can kick everyone else's ass in the mountains (contador might be able to do just that). I just don't think you can count lance out.

The thing is Lance should be caddying for Contador. Andy Schleck isn't an elite time-trialer but he's a very good climber also. Cadel Evans performed well in the mountains last year too, and he can time-trial.

 

Bottom line with Armstrong is Contador is in his prime and A Schleck is right there - and if you're cynical, their dope is probably just as good as what Lance is getting. I don't see an LA victory - he looked about as good as George Hincapie in the races he's ridden so far.

[BLIND HOMER]

NO

[Chavez]

As Ron White says, ya can't fix stupid.

...but Ron White don't know Big John.

[AtomicCEO]

I hope that my favorite racer is on the drug they aren't testing for yet.

[Dr. Sacrebleu]

I hope that my favorite racer is on the drug they aren't testing for yet.

you can rest assured that the winner will be.

Also in the wild predictions, I predict that the French keep their nearly quarter century winless streak alive. And with great panache this year.

[Chavez]

Go Team Garmin-Chipotle Slipstream! Let's get on that podium!

Slipstream doesn't have the lineup of studs Astana and Saxo have, but they're solid...didn't VDV make the podium last year?

[millerx]

this is the one "sport" that make soccer (football) look good to most Americans.

[ts]

...didn't VDV make the podium last year?

 

 

The 2008 podium was:

 

- Sastre

- Evans

- Kohl

 

 

Vandevelde ranked 5th overall.

[detlef]

this is the one "sport" that make soccer (football) look good to most Americans.

By what criteria do you claim cycling's status as a sport is suspect?

[SheikYerbuti]

During the Lance years I used to Tivo and watch every minute of every stage. Since then there's been so much dirt and suspicion in the race I've lost my taste for it. I'll certainly be watching this year, but probably only the 1 hour recap shows. . . and with sincere hopes the race doesn't get bogged down in scandal yet again.

[Chavez]

this is the one "sport" that make soccer (football) look good to most Americans.

I'd rather stick needles in my eyes than watch golf or the NBA, so different strokes for different folks.

[Dr. Sacrebleu]

During the Lance years I used to Tivo and watch every minute of every stage. Since then there's been so much dirt and suspicion in the race I've lost my taste for it. I'll certainly be watching this year, but probably only the 1 hour recap shows. . . and with sincere hopes the race doesn't get bogged down in scandal yet again.

 

I see. Drug use became rampant only after the clean American won it all...

Talk about jingoistic blinders. The Lance years coincide with the most proven drug use on tour ever recorded, and massive circumstantial evidence regarding many of the top cyclists (including Armstrong (though the evidence against him is not as flagrantly as some other notables))

[Azazello1313]

I see. Drug use became rampant only after the clean American won it all...

Talk about jingoistic blinders. The Lance years coincide with the most proven drug use on tour ever recorded, and massive circumstantial evidence regarding many of the top cyclists (including Armstrong (though the evidence against him is not as flagrantly as some other notables))

 

dude, get over it already. france sucks, even at their own sport. being perpetually surly about it isn't going to change anything.

 

I don't know if lance has always been perfectly been clean. I know he's been tested as much or more than anyone else, and the "evidence" I've seen against him is incredibly weak. I also know that all of his major rivals over the years have somehow been implicated in drug scandals. (and yeah, lots of french riders have been too, but none of them have been good enough to be considered a serious rival.) so if lance HAS been doping all along, it just means he's better than everyone else at that, on top of everything else.

 

edit to add: during the lance years, at least yellow spamshirts weren't getting booted from the race in the middle of it....riders being stripped of titles shortly after winning them, winning teams being booted from the race the following year, etc. I think that is obviously what sheik was referring to. that stuff has really hurt the race in the years after lance.

Edited June 29, 2009 by Azazello1313

[Chavez]

I don't know if lance has always been perfectly been clean. I know he's been tested as much or more than anyone else, and the "evidence" I've seen against him is incredibly weak. I also know that all of his major rivals over the years have somehow been implicated in drug scandals. (and yeah, lots of french riders have been too, but none of them have been good enough to be considered a serious rival.) so if lance HAS been doping all along, it just means he's better than everyone else at that, on top of everything else.

I really don't think it's possible for a clean rider to consistently beat riders that are doped to the gills.

 

Heck, before his illness took him out, doping pushed about half the peloton past Lemond.

[Azazello1313]

I really don't think it's possible for a clean rider to consistently beat riders that are doped to the gills.

 

that may or may not be true, but if it is, I don't think a clean rider has won the TDF in 100 years.

[wildcat2334]

By what criteria do you claim cycling's status as a sport is suspect?

 

 

 

cool, grueling event, and those dudes are in phenomenal shape but you have got to be joking. The Tour De France and the sport of cycling is an absolute joke and a farce with all the cheating and scandals and chit.

 

If I was into biking and a cycling fan, I would be flat out embarrassed

[Chavez]

that may or may not be true, but if it is, I don't think a clean rider has won the TDF in 100 years.

There's a difference (in scale, at least) between using painkillers and stimulants and EPO and HGH.

 

Avg speed of the TdF started out at 25.5 k/ph in 1903. It went up to 28 k/ph in 1907 was generally in the 24-28 k/ph range, and in the 30s the average was consistently in the 28-29 k/ph range. 1939 was the first year they broke 30 k/ph. WW2 interrupted, but the avg steadily climbed into the 35-36 k/ph range in the mid-to-late 50s....and then it stalled there. Jacques Anquetil was winning at about 35 k/ph in the mid 50s, Lemond was winning at about 37.5 k/ph in the late 80s, and Indurain was winning at around 38 k/ph in the early 90s.

 

Dopers Bjarne Riis, Jan Ullrich, and Marco Pantani ran it up to about 39 k/ph in the 96-98 seasons. In 99, Armstrongs first win, the avg speeds jumped consistently up into the 42 k/ph range.

 

Now, call me Pollyanna, but I think the steady increase from the 50s to the mid-90s can in large part be attributed to technology and better training. But a big jump coming around 2000, when there were already carbon forks, wind tunnel training, tremendous knowledge about proper diet, etc? Average speeds have dropped from the 42+ k/ph of the Armstrong era back to around 40 k/ph since the increasing crackdowns on PED.

 

But if Lance Armstrong was riding 10-15% faster than guys like Lemond, Hinault, and Indurain, and crushing a doped-up field while clean as a whistle, then he really has an argument for being the greatest athlete EVER.

[Chavez]

cool, grueling event, and those dudes are in phenomenal shape but you have got to be joking. The Tour De France and the sport of cycling is an absolute joke and a farce with all the cheating and scandals and chit.

 

If I was into biking and a cycling fan, I would be flat out embarrassed

The other side of that argument is that it would be VERY easy for cycling's governing body to look the other way when a guy wearing the yellow jersey comes up positive.* The willingness to endure black eyes to clean up the sport suggests at least SOME dedication to doing the right thing.

 

 

* - there are some who maintain that UCI et al often have a selective eye when they are testing and/or catching cheats. I don't see it; when you've got superstars like Ullrich, Basso, TdF winners/leaders like Landis and Rasmussen, and so on getting drummed out in a public way, I think they're doing everything they can. That isn't to say that they're catching everyone - cheaters are generally a step or two ahead of those trying to catch them, and the avg speeds suggest there are still a lot of people slipping through. But they're trying.

 

It IS irritating to attempt to follow a sport where every good player is essentially Barry Bonds.

[Chavez]

Oh, and my goal is to give some cat-5 races a shot next year. If you want a clean rider to root for, I can vouch that the closest I'll get to a PED is an order of buffalo wings and a sixer of Hacker Pschorr Dunkel.