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Official Week 1 Wagering Thread


kroyrunner89
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I had an awesome day yesterday. Sorry I didn't post plays but just kind of went offthe cuff for the day since I was flush with cash from Thursday. Tanked first half games (except Baltimore miracle), then came back with a winner on SF/WASH parlay. Then parlayed that win into GB-5/ under. I was on the verge of losing entire days profits on that last one, but God bless Lovie Smith and his fake punt, and Greg Jennings and his TD run, and the mind-numbing 2 point attempt. I rarely react physically to winning a wager, but when Jennings inched that 2 pointer across the line, there was fist pumping. Ka-ching.

 

Been on the wrong side of those so many times in the past, it was pretty awesome to get that one. I started the weekend thinking I wouldn't play much but I am glad I did. Lucky doesn't begin to describe hitting that parlay last night, but the whole thing started with winning that first bet on Thursday night. It is all so much easier with house money.

 

So, since I seem to be so charmed right now I will tell you what I am doing tonight. Look, these are awful spreads. But these are also awful teams on the long end of them. I took a SMALL portion of my winnings from yesterday and made a ridiculous 4 team parlay as such:

 

NE / OVER

SD / UNDER

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Staying away as well, other than the 5-team money line parlay in which I still need NE to win. If that happens, I basically break even for the week, which I'm fine with, considering BAL covering was my biggest play of the weekend (and one I was VERY fortunate to win). I'm happy to call this weekend a push, considering I should go 8-3 (maybe even 9-2) in FF this week, including a shot at weekly high score in the two leagues that pay $$ for that.

 

Should have a much better comfort level on some plays for next weekend, after watching literally 20+ hours of football this weekend. :wacko:

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Glad the Dallas play worked out for you, but like I said, I think TB made themselves look much worse than they are, and the opposite could be said for Dallas. Did you watch the game, or just bet on it? TB owned Dallas, on both sides of the ball, for the first 2+ quarters. They were a couple of big plays away from being in a position to win the game in the 4th quarter... the guys calling the game said the same thing. Maybe I put a little bit too much faith in them, thinking they would cover, but I really don't see how you can think they're one of the worst teams in the NFL. :wacko: They had the same record as Dallas did last year... Dallas lost T.O., and TB added Winslow and Ward (and lost Garcia). We'll see, I guess, but I can think of several teams that looked worse than they did today, without trying too hard... STL, CLE, DEN, CIN, DET, HOU, CAR, MIA, WAS. After tomorrow, I'm sure we can add Oakland to the list, and KC within a couple of weeks (still not sure how they stayed with Baltimore, but they'll come back down to earth).

 

Honestly, I'm not so sure, after watching today's games, that Arizona is any better than TB... they had a nice run last year, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them right around 8-8 again this season (and miss the playoffs this time)... They're one Warner injury from going 6-10. Seattle or SF will win that division, I believe. As for Tampa, their schedule is BRUTAL, and I've never been a Leftwich fan, so I could see them going anywhere between 5-11 and 9-7 this year... Sorry, but there is no way in hell that they're one of the worst 3-4 teams in the league.

 

ummm, I beg to differ - how about $50 that says TB ends up with one of the 4 worst records in the NFL???

 

yer damn right I watched it - and even tho TB ran up some yardage, I honestly felt that Dallas would start clicking in the 2nd half and pull away

Edited by wildcat2334
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This...

 

well, that and the fact that TB is at the bottom of the barrel personnel-wise and is one of the 3-4 worst teams in the NFL.

 

Dallas was the play there my man

 

and this...

 

ummm, I beg to differ - how about $50 that says TB ends up with one of the 4 worst records in the NFL???

 

yer damn right I watched it - and even tho TB ran up some yardage, I honestly felt that Dallas would start clicking in the 2nd half and pull away

are two totally different things. Two reasons I'm not interested in betting on their win total:

 

1) Their schedule, as I mentioned, is beyond brutal... Outside of their division, which is tough enough, they play the NFC and AFC East, Green Bay at home, and at Seattle. Not really an "easy" game in the bunch... In fact, ironically, they don't play ANY of the teams that I consider to be clearly worse than they are (STL, CLE, CIN, DET, DEN, KC, OAK, or HOU). Their weakest opponents this year are teams that are similar in makeup to what they have (WAS, CAR, MIA)... Bottom of the barrel in terms of QB and WR talent, but a decent defense and running game to keep them in some games.

 

2) Leftwich... I don't trust him, plain and simple. I realize that the QB is a pretty significant position, but I hardly think that makes them one of the worst teams in the NFL, in terms of talent.

 

Bottom line... I (and many others) have underestimated Tampa Bay in the past, and they just about ALWAYS overachieve. I wouldn't be surprised if they only win 4-5 games, but it wouldn't shock me if they go 8-8 either. Too early to tell. I just completely disagree with your statement that they are bottom of the barrel, in terms of personnel... Several teams have worse. I just don't think their record this year will be an accurate gauge of their talent level. :wacko:

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This...

 

 

 

and this...

 

 

are two totally different things. Two reasons I'm not interested in betting on their win total:

 

1) Their schedule, as I mentioned, is beyond brutal... Outside of their division, which is tough enough, they play the NFC and AFC East, Green Bay at home, and at Seattle. Not really an "easy" game in the bunch... In fact, ironically, they don't play ANY of the teams that I consider to be clearly worse than they are (STL, CLE, CIN, DET, DEN, KC, OAK, or HOU). Their weakest opponents this year are teams that are similar in makeup to what they have (WAS, CAR, MIA)... Bottom of the barrel in terms of QB and WR talent, but a decent defense and running game to keep them in some games.

 

2) Leftwich... I don't trust him, plain and simple. I realize that the QB is a pretty significant position, but I hardly think that makes them one of the worst teams in the NFL, in terms of talent.

 

Bottom line... I (and many others) have underestimated Tampa Bay in the past, and they just about ALWAYS overachieve. I wouldn't be surprised if they only win 4-5 games, but it wouldn't shock me if they go 8-8 either. Too early to tell. I just completely disagree with your statement that they are bottom of the barrel, in terms of personnel... Several teams have worse. I just don't think their record this year will be an accurate gauge of their talent level. :wacko:

 

fine, whatever - I thought it might be fun to lay a little dough on it - and I think it is a pretty even wager with STL, OAK, KC, DET, CLE, etc out there

 

you feel TB be anywhere from 5-11 to 9-7 yet don't want to make the bet?? huh?

 

all good, maybe after the year is over we can to to scout.com and see how TB grades out personnel-wise.......

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