Official Week 1 Wagering Thread

[hollywood_69]

dre has his pick up, for tonight go pm/email him and he'll cut huddlers a break. I'll let you know how it goes at the end of the game!

[kroyrunner89]

It's called a trend. Look it up. I think it holds more weight than what the Cards cuts did in four meaningless preseason games. Jeez...

i know what a trend is, i just happen to think they're worthless. so what about all the super bowl losers in years before when this trend started? why aren't they included, did they do better? come on man, if trends worked there wouldn't be a sports betting business, bookies woulda gotten smoked years ago. i'm sure if you looked hard enough you could find plenty of trends suggesting arizona will win too.

[HowboutthemCowboys]

Steelers have the Super Bowl hangover. Titans are hungrier this week.

 

Titans +6.5

 

ETA: I have no money on this game

Edited September 10, 2009 by HowboutthemCowboys

[i_am_the_swammi]

Steelers have the Super Bowl hangover. Titans are hungrier this week.

 

Titans +6.5

 

I am with you for another reason.....favorite giving -6.5 is usually an effort by the books to make you think "Wow, Steelers are giving less than a touchdown...take them".

 

Nope....Titans 20, Steelers 16

[kroyrunner89]

I am with you for another reason.....favorite giving -6.5 is usually an effort by the books to make you think "Wow, Steelers are giving less than a touchdown...take them".

 

Nope....Titans 20, Steelers 16

Nice pickin, way to start off the year with a win

[rattsass]

I always respect your plays , last year I tailed you on more than a couple and did well,

I myself did well last year, 65% against the spread 71% over/under ( with dre's help on the over/ under )

of the 7 games I like this week 2 games i post as plays here

Thursday nights game is the one game i can't get a feel for. I'm going to sit and watch this one.

Most likely the only game of the year I will be able to enjoy, I will neither have a wager or a Fantasy player on either team

I don't think I could of said that once all of last year

 

Sorry you weren't with me on this one. Looks like several were. Nice hit guys, we are 1/1.

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

Sorry you weren't with me on this one. Looks like several were. Nice hit guys, we are 1/1.

 

Wasn't with you but also wasn't against you ,, Like I said it was the one and most likely only game this year I was able to watch and just enjoy some football. Good win for you ,, enjoyable game for me

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

The more I think about it - I'm adding Minn - 4 to the games I'm taking this week.

[kroyrunner89]

The more I think about it - I'm adding Minn - 4 to the games I'm taking this week.

Yeah, it's been growing on me too, but I think I'm just going to play it safe and stay away from that one. I could see that one finishing as a Minnesota win by a field goal way too easily for comfort.

[NavinRJohnson]

I don't usually play the teasers, but I am down on this one that pushed across the 3 and the 7.

 

3 Teams TEASER FB 6 / CFB 6

Panthers (Carolina) PS +8 -104 { Pro Ftbll }

Seahawks (Seattle) PS -2½ Even { Pro Ftbll }

Navy PS -1½ -110 { Col Ftbll }

 

And, FWIW the Vikes game scares the bejeezus out of me. I can see why a lot of people like it, the Vikes have the talent to push the Browns around and win a blowout. It's also the most one-sided play so far as 68% of the public is on the Vikes. Scary. I am staying away.

[kroyrunner89]

Week 1 Plays:

 

* San Francisco 49ers +6

 

I've seen absolutely nothing out of the Arizona first string offense or defense this preseason to give me a good feeling about them heading into the season, and SF always seems to play Arizona tough. Last season when SF played in Arizona they nearly stole one outright, having a chance at a touchdown in the final seconds to win it. They squandered the opportunity with poor clock management, but all the pieces are still there for them to do it again. Had this game been played last season, when Arizona was clicking, my system still would have picked SF +6. I think that Arizona is faltering right now, and SF is on the rise compared to last year, making this pick that much sweeter. I wouldn't be surprised to see SF win this game, but I'll take them at +6 and expect at least the cover.

 

* Atlanta Falcons -4

 

Atlanta is just a different team when they play at home. They had their fair share of struggles on the road last year, but they scored almost 10 ppg more at home, with an average margin of victory of 10 pts. Atlanta has looked spectacular all preseason, and although Miami was a pretty good road team, I think they're much more likely to take a step back this year. I'll count on Atlanta to win this game by a TD or more and cover.

 

* Arizona/SF UNDER 46

 

This pick goes along with some of my comments in the SF pick. Arizona's offense is not looking good, and the possibility that Boldin sits out makes this play look that much sweeter. SF is a run first team, and should try to attack with Gore and wind some clock to keep Warner off the field. Also, you can bet they'll look to take Warner's weapons away and force Arizona to come out and beat the with the run. In order for this total to go over, you figure we'd have to see 6 tds and a couple field goals between the two teams. I'd be shocked if these teams found the end zone 6 combined times, so I think the under is the obvious play.

 

* Green Bay Packers -4

 

The Packers have looked very impressive this preseason, with every aspect of their game looking great. Although the Bears finally have a capable QB at the helm, he still doesn't have anybody to throw the ball to. The Bears' defense is also quite overrated in my opinion, and simply will not be able to handle Green Bay's passing attack. This game could get pretty high scoring, and the Bears won't be able to keep up.

 

* New Orleans Saints -13.5

 

Although I'm a bit hesitant to take such a large favorite, all the signs point to a Saints blowout win. Last season the Saints absolutely pounded Detroit when they played them, and should have no problem solving the defense again. The only question that I have is whether or not Detroit can keep up with the Saints' scoring. With Stafford getting the start, he should be able to give the Lions some life on offense. However, one could argue that he didn't have a single great preseason game, and I like the chances of the Saints picking off a pass or two. With those kinds of mistakes and the New Orleans' improved defense, I see a blowout victory.

 

* Saints/Lions OVER 48

 

This pick serves a couple of purposes. First of all, I think there is a good chance that we see a 38-20 type of game and the total goes over easily. I have no doubt in my mind that the Saints will put up points on their end, the question is whether or not the Lions will be able to score as well. In my mind, if the total were to go under it would be because of the Lions' short comings, and the Saints -13.5 bet should have been a winner. If the total were to go over, the Lions put up their share of points then, and they may have covered the spread. I can't see the combination of this over and the Saints -13.5 bet doing any worse than going 1-1, I'll gladly eat the juice if that happens. I think the smart play here is to take the over as well, and you're looking at a good chance of both plays winning, with a worst case scenario of 1 losing.

 

Good luck Week 1 everyone!!!

[Lost]

I would take Titans +6 and the under.

 

Sorry, I like hindsight better than foresight!

 

I have lost too much money betting week 1!

[Gopher]

Early games for me:

 

6.5 Point Teaser (3 Teams):

Dolphins(Miami) +10.5

MIA/ATL Over 38

PHI/CAR Over 37

 

I think these both have the potential of being fairly high-scoring, especially the Atlanta game. I think they'll have no trouble scoring points this year, but will have problems stopping opponents from scoring. Miami keeps it close in a shootout. The PHI/CAR game I'm not quite as confident about, but I think both teams should score a minimum of 17-20 points, making 37+ pretty attainable. Put a fair amount on this one.

Buccaneers(TampaBay) +5.5 Bucs not getting enough credit... they had the same record as Dallas last year. Lots has changed on both sides since last season, particularly in Tampa (HC, DC, QB, etc.), but Dallas lost it's #1 play-maker. As much as T.O.'s absence might quiet things in the locker room, he's still going to be missed... no real threats in the passing game, at least from the WR position. I just think 5.5 points is a lot for TB to be given, considering it's their home opener. If they can run the ball at all, I think they have a good shot to win what is going to be a defensive struggle... I see it going 17-13 in one direction or the other. Relatively small wager on this, but I like TB's chances.

Ravens(Baltimore) -13 Brody Croyle?? Enough said... blowout. Biggest wager of the day.

 

Parlay (5 Teams):

Patriots(NewEngland) -750

Ravens(Baltimore) -740

Saints(NewOrleans) -930

Seahawks(Seattle) -360

Vikings(Minnesota) -230

 

I've been burned by Week 1 "upsets" before, but I'm fairly confident that these five teams win... All are facing QB's with limited to no NFL experience, or QB's who have struggled so far in the pre-season. Small wager that I'm comfortable taking a chance on.

[Gopher]

Rough start for Miami. Thought they would at least score SOMETHING today.

 

Got one teaser going this afternoon:

 

SEA -1

SF +11

SF/ARI Over 40

[Do Work Son]

2 for 2....

 

Minnesota -5

 

Baltimore -13 (Dont know how they covered but i'll take it)

[Gopher]

Early games for me:

 

6.5 Point Teaser (3 Teams):

Dolphins(Miami) +10.5

MIA/ATL Over 38

PHI/CAR Over 37

 

I think these both have the potential of being fairly high-scoring, especially the Atlanta game. I think they'll have no trouble scoring points this year, but will have problems stopping opponents from scoring. Miami keeps it close in a shootout. The PHI/CAR game I'm not quite as confident about, but I think both teams should score a minimum of 17-20 points, making 37+ pretty attainable. Put a fair amount on this one.

Buccaneers(TampaBay) +5.5 Bucs not getting enough credit... they had the same record as Dallas last year. Lots has changed on both sides since last season, particularly in Tampa (HC, DC, QB, etc.), but Dallas lost it's #1 play-maker. As much as T.O.'s absence might quiet things in the locker room, he's still going to be missed... no real threats in the passing game, at least from the WR position. I just think 5.5 points is a lot for TB to be given, considering it's their home opener. If they can run the ball at all, I think they have a good shot to win what is going to be a defensive struggle... I see it going 17-13 in one direction or the other. Relatively small wager on this, but I like TB's chances.

Ravens(Baltimore) -13 Brody Croyle?? Enough said... blowout. Biggest wager of the day.

 

Parlay (5 Teams):

Patriots(NewEngland) -750

Ravens(Baltimore) -740

Saints(NewOrleans) -930

Seahawks(Seattle) -360

Vikings(Minnesota) -230

 

I've been burned by Week 1 "upsets" before, but I'm fairly confident that these five teams win... All are facing QB's with limited to no NFL experience, or QB's who have struggled so far in the pre-season. Small wager that I'm comfortable taking a chance on.

1 for 3 (with the parlay pending). Need SEA and NEP to win to get that. Got lucky with Baltimore, though... what the hell was that? Talk about allowing a team that has no business staying in the game, to stay in the game. Just proof that anything can happen in the NFL, and it nearly did in Baltimore today.

 

Very surprised that Miami didn't show up today... what an embarrassment.

 

As far as TB... two things cost them that game: Special teams and S. Piscitelli. What a joke of a DB. Tampa dominated the first half of the game on both sides of the ball, only to go into halftime down 13-7... Not a good sign. Dallas showed up for the second half, but the difference in the game was SP's inability to cover the Dallas WR's. That guy needs to go. Two missed/blocked FG's in the first half didn't help, but this should have been a much closer game than the score indicated. I think TB made themselves look much worse than they really are today, while Dallas might have looked a little bit better than they truly are, thanks to 3 long TD's in which their WR's weren't covered.

[Do Work Son]

Anybody touching the game tonight? Looks to close to call for me...

[kroyrunner89]

Anybody touching the game tonight? Looks to close to call for me...

I'm going Packers -4, definitely a play I'm feeling confident in. I've had a 5-0 start so far this weekend, hopefully the Packers can finish it off on a high note!

[Tally]

I'm going Packers -4

 

+1

Lets go GB!!!

Edited September 13, 2009 by Tally

[wildcat2334]

As far as TB... two things cost them that game: Special teams and S. Piscitelli. What a joke of a DB. Tampa dominated the first half of the game on both sides of the ball, only to go into halftime down 13-7... Not a good sign. Dallas showed up for the second half, but the difference in the game was SP's inability to cover the Dallas WR's. That guy needs to go. Two missed/blocked FG's in the first half didn't help, but this should have been a much closer game than the score indicated. I think TB made themselves look much worse than they really are today, while Dallas might have looked a little bit better than they truly are, thanks to 3 long TD's in which their WR's weren't covered.

 

 

well, that and the fact that TB is at the bottom of the barrel personnel-wise and is one of the 3-4 worst teams in the NFL.

 

Dallas was the play there my man

[wildcat2334]

Week 1 Plays:

 

* San Francisco 49ers +6

 

I've seen absolutely nothing out of the Arizona first string offense or defense this preseason to give me a good feeling about them heading into the season, and SF always seems to play Arizona tough. Last season when SF played in Arizona they nearly stole one outright, having a chance at a touchdown in the final seconds to win it. They squandered the opportunity with poor clock management, but all the pieces are still there for them to do it again. Had this game been played last season, when Arizona was clicking, my system still would have picked SF +6. I think that Arizona is faltering right now, and SF is on the rise compared to last year, making this pick that much sweeter. I wouldn't be surprised to see SF win this game, but I'll take them at +6 and expect at least the cover.

 

* Atlanta Falcons -4

 

Atlanta is just a different team when they play at home. They had their fair share of struggles on the road last year, but they scored almost 10 ppg more at home, with an average margin of victory of 10 pts. Atlanta has looked spectacular all preseason, and although Miami was a pretty good road team, I think they're much more likely to take a step back this year. I'll count on Atlanta to win this game by a TD or more and cover.

 

* Arizona/SF UNDER 46

 

This pick goes along with some of my comments in the SF pick. Arizona's offense is not looking good, and the possibility that Boldin sits out makes this play look that much sweeter. SF is a run first team, and should try to attack with Gore and wind some clock to keep Warner off the field. Also, you can bet they'll look to take Warner's weapons away and force Arizona to come out and beat the with the run. In order for this total to go over, you figure we'd have to see 6 tds and a couple field goals between the two teams. I'd be shocked if these teams found the end zone 6 combined times, so I think the under is the obvious play.

 

* Green Bay Packers -4

 

The Packers have looked very impressive this preseason, with every aspect of their game looking great. Although the Bears finally have a capable QB at the helm, he still doesn't have anybody to throw the ball to. The Bears' defense is also quite overrated in my opinion, and simply will not be able to handle Green Bay's passing attack. This game could get pretty high scoring, and the Bears won't be able to keep up.

 

* New Orleans Saints -13.5

 

Although I'm a bit hesitant to take such a large favorite, all the signs point to a Saints blowout win. Last season the Saints absolutely pounded Detroit when they played them, and should have no problem solving the defense again. The only question that I have is whether or not Detroit can keep up with the Saints' scoring. With Stafford getting the start, he should be able to give the Lions some life on offense. However, one could argue that he didn't have a single great preseason game, and I like the chances of the Saints picking off a pass or two. With those kinds of mistakes and the New Orleans' improved defense, I see a blowout victory.

 

* Saints/Lions OVER 48

 

This pick serves a couple of purposes. First of all, I think there is a good chance that we see a 38-20 type of game and the total goes over easily. I have no doubt in my mind that the Saints will put up points on their end, the question is whether or not the Lions will be able to score as well. In my mind, if the total were to go under it would be because of the Lions' short comings, and the Saints -13.5 bet should have been a winner. If the total were to go over, the Lions put up their share of points then, and they may have covered the spread. I can't see the combination of this over and the Saints -13.5 bet doing any worse than going 1-1, I'll gladly eat the juice if that happens. I think the smart play here is to take the over as well, and you're looking at a good chance of both plays winning, with a worst case scenario of 1 losing.

 

Good luck Week 1 everyone!!!

 

well done - I like the analysis and insight your bringing to the table!

[kroyrunner89]

Week 1 Plays:

 

* San Francisco 49ers +6

 

I've seen absolutely nothing out of the Arizona first string offense or defense this preseason to give me a good feeling about them heading into the season, and SF always seems to play Arizona tough. Last season when SF played in Arizona they nearly stole one outright, having a chance at a touchdown in the final seconds to win it. They squandered the opportunity with poor clock management, but all the pieces are still there for them to do it again. Had this game been played last season, when Arizona was clicking, my system still would have picked SF +6. I think that Arizona is faltering right now, and SF is on the rise compared to last year, making this pick that much sweeter. I wouldn't be surprised to see SF win this game, but I'll take them at +6 and expect at least the cover.

 

* Atlanta Falcons -4

 

Atlanta is just a different team when they play at home. They had their fair share of struggles on the road last year, but they scored almost 10 ppg more at home, with an average margin of victory of 10 pts. Atlanta has looked spectacular all preseason, and although Miami was a pretty good road team, I think they're much more likely to take a step back this year. I'll count on Atlanta to win this game by a TD or more and cover.

 

* Arizona/SF UNDER 46

 

This pick goes along with some of my comments in the SF pick. Arizona's offense is not looking good, and the possibility that Boldin sits out makes this play look that much sweeter. SF is a run first team, and should try to attack with Gore and wind some clock to keep Warner off the field. Also, you can bet they'll look to take Warner's weapons away and force Arizona to come out and beat the with the run. In order for this total to go over, you figure we'd have to see 6 tds and a couple field goals between the two teams. I'd be shocked if these teams found the end zone 6 combined times, so I think the under is the obvious play.

 

* Green Bay Packers -4

 

The Packers have looked very impressive this preseason, with every aspect of their game looking great. Although the Bears finally have a capable QB at the helm, he still doesn't have anybody to throw the ball to. The Bears' defense is also quite overrated in my opinion, and simply will not be able to handle Green Bay's passing attack. This game could get pretty high scoring, and the Bears won't be able to keep up.

 

* New Orleans Saints -13.5

 

Although I'm a bit hesitant to take such a large favorite, all the signs point to a Saints blowout win. Last season the Saints absolutely pounded Detroit when they played them, and should have no problem solving the defense again. The only question that I have is whether or not Detroit can keep up with the Saints' scoring. With Stafford getting the start, he should be able to give the Lions some life on offense. However, one could argue that he didn't have a single great preseason game, and I like the chances of the Saints picking off a pass or two. With those kinds of mistakes and the New Orleans' improved defense, I see a blowout victory.

 

* Saints/Lions OVER 48

 

This pick serves a couple of purposes. First of all, I think there is a good chance that we see a 38-20 type of game and the total goes over easily. I have no doubt in my mind that the Saints will put up points on their end, the question is whether or not the Lions will be able to score as well. In my mind, if the total were to go under it would be because of the Lions' short comings, and the Saints -13.5 bet should have been a winner. If the total were to go over, the Lions put up their share of points then, and they may have covered the spread. I can't see the combination of this over and the Saints -13.5 bet doing any worse than going 1-1, I'll gladly eat the juice if that happens. I think the smart play here is to take the over as well, and you're looking at a good chance of both plays winning, with a worst case scenario of 1 losing.

 

Good luck Week 1 everyone!!!

6-0 to start the season, I'd like to thank the Packers for the lucky cover. I'm sure breaks like that will even out along the way, but nice to have one go for me. I may have a play for tomorrow, I haven't decided yet. I'll post it up tomorrow afternoon if I decide on something!

[Gopher]

well, that and the fact that TB is at the bottom of the barrel personnel-wise and is one of the 3-4 worst teams in the NFL.

 

Dallas was the play there my man

Glad the Dallas play worked out for you, but like I said, I think TB made themselves look much worse than they are, and the opposite could be said for Dallas. Did you watch the game, or just bet on it? TB owned Dallas, on both sides of the ball, for the first 2+ quarters. They were a couple of big plays away from being in a position to win the game in the 4th quarter... the guys calling the game said the same thing. Maybe I put a little bit too much faith in them, thinking they would cover, but I really don't see how you can think they're one of the worst teams in the NFL. They had the same record as Dallas did last year... Dallas lost T.O., and TB added Winslow and Ward (and lost Garcia). We'll see, I guess, but I can think of several teams that looked worse than they did today, without trying too hard... STL, CLE, DEN, CIN, DET, HOU, CAR, MIA, WAS. After tomorrow, I'm sure we can add Oakland to the list, and KC within a couple of weeks (still not sure how they stayed with Baltimore, but they'll come back down to earth).

 

Honestly, I'm not so sure, after watching today's games, that Arizona is any better than TB... they had a nice run last year, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them right around 8-8 again this season (and miss the playoffs this time)... They're one Warner injury from going 6-10. Seattle or SF will win that division, I believe. As for Tampa, their schedule is BRUTAL, and I've never been a Leftwich fan, so I could see them going anywhere between 5-11 and 9-7 this year... Sorry, but there is no way in hell that they're one of the worst 3-4 teams in the league.

[THE SIX KINGS]

2- 4 Team Parlays

 

Sat.

 

Iowa St. +7 Lost

S. Carolina +7 Won

Buffalo U. +13 Lost

Vandy +17 Won

2-2

Sun.

 

 

Baltimore -13 Won

under 44 Den @ Cin Won

NYJets +6 Won

Dallas -6 Won

4-0

 

Straight Bets for Sat. & Sun.

 

USC -7 Lost

Air Force +4 Lost

Saints -13 Won

Vikings -4 Won

2-2

 

Nice 4 team parlay to start the year.

[kroyrunner89]

After some consideration I've decided I will not be making any plays on tonight's games. I have absolutely no read on the Oakland vs. San Diego game, so obviously that's one I'm staying away from. The other game, Patriots vs. Bills, is a much tougher one for me to avoid. Over 47 is a very tempting play for me, but I just don't feel like I know enough about these teams yet to go ahead and make it a play. In the end, I just have too many unanswered questions so I'm going to pack in the 6-0 week and get ready for next weekend!