RB Shonn Greene

[DMD]

Shonn Greene has been going all over - as early as the end of the first round and as late as the end of the third round - it mostly depends on if there is a big Greene believer in the league. He only gained 540 yards on a mere 108 carries and scored twice in the regular season thanks to being Thomas Jones' caddy most of the year. His regular season was really nothing more than a 19-144 game in Oakland when he scored both touchdowns. Othewrwise, not so much and he had exactly zero receptions.

 

In the playoffs he rushed for 135 in Cincinnati and 128 in San Diego with a score in each. Those two games were the cause of all the Greene excitement for 2010. Greene suffered some torn rib cartilage in the playoffs but is completely healthy now.

 

The Jets were #1 in the NFL with 2756 rushing yards in 2009. How many of those will Greene claim this year?

 

Where do you hope to land him or do you even want him?

[buddahj]

I like him in the 2nd round. I can't give someone "stud status" until he does it for an entire season.

[Avernus]

I like him in the 2nd round. I can't give someone "stud status" until he does it for an entire season.

 

 

sounds like a 3rd rounder to me...

[BeeR]

The Jets were #1 in the NFL with 2756 rushing yards in 2009. How many of those will Greene claim this year?

 

Almost all of them. But he can't catch, so slides down my board. I'll snatch him in my auction if the price is cheap enough though and esp if I've paid (overpaid?) for QB/WR/etc.

[i_am_the_swammi]

sounds like a 3rd rounder to me...

 

+1

 

If I was going to draft him, I'd do it with the mindset that I'd likely be trading him after his frist few stellar weeks. I just don't see him being a 25-30 touch guy all season.

[BeeR]

I just don't see him being a 25-30 touch guy all season.

? I don't see any RB NFL being a 25-30 touch guy all season. Exactly one cracked 25+ last year (barely). Only a handful or so even crack 20.

 

Green will catch about 1 ball a game but will run all day long. In non-PPR he's a RB1 easy.

[BearBroncos]

? I don't see any RB NFL being a 25-30 touch guy all season. Exactly one cracked 25+ last year (barely). Only a handful or so even crack 20.

 

Green will catch about 1 ball a game but will run all day long. In non-PPR he's a RB1 easy.

 

I agree!!! The Jets ran 607 times last year, nearly 20% more than the second highest run team with CJ and there are no plans in changing their scheme. Expect Greene to get at least 250 touches (and thats extremely conservative) and if he holds onto the ball and avoids major injury, you could see him get the most yards and TD's this season. Granted, LT will take his toll on Greenes TD numbers, but I think there will be ample opportunities for both.

[st0650]

I want to say he is a 2nd round pick. He hasn't proven enough for me to justify him as stud and I don't want to waste a 1st round pick on a guy that I not positive can have a full workload.

[bankerboy]

Yes the Jets led the league in rushing last year. As Sanchez develops, I would bet that they gravitate towards a more conventional run/pass split. Bottom line - expect the rushing yard "pie" to be smaller this year.

[BearBroncos]

Yes the Jets led the league in rushing last year. As Sanchez develops, I would bet that they gravitate towards a more conventional run/pass split. Bottom line - expect the rushing yard "pie" to be smaller this year.

 

I think Ryan is a man that is and will always be a run first coach. I mean, he's historically from run first teams.

[bankerboy]

I think Ryan is a man that is and will always be a run first coach. I mean, he's historically from run first teams.

 

I agree completely. I didn't mean that the Jets would become the Saints/Colts, just that the run/pass mix may not be as extreme as Sanchez develops.

[MTSuper7]

I agree!!! The Jets ran 607 times last year, nearly 20% more than the second highest run team with CJ and there are no plans in changing their scheme. Expect Greene to get at least 250 touches (and thats extremely conservative) and if he holds onto the ball and avoids major injury, you could see him get the most yards and TD's this season. Granted, LT will take his toll on Greenes TD numbers, but I think there will be ample opportunities for both.

 

Are we positive there are no plans to change their scheme? I mean, it's not an apples to apples comparison, but I remember when Flacco was a rookie they didn't open up the playbook and had a higher run to pass ratio that year than the following year. I guess I see the addition of Santonio Holmes, the improvement of QB play from Sanchez entering his second year, and the losses of Thomas Jones and Leon Washington as reasons to think that they won't have 20% more carries than any other team in 2010. They may not even lead the league in attempts.

 

That being said, there is no question that the strength of this team is in the running game. BeeR's post indicating that Shonn Greene will get the vast majority of the work in the running game leads me to believe that BeeR thinks he should be valued kinda like Rudi Johnson was in his heyday (not sure if he'd say that, but it's the best comparison I can think of). Here' why you can't give him that status (yet): LT.

 

It's a crapshoot really to know exactly how big of a piece of the pie LT will get, and most people have written off LT which is why it's easy to just assume Greene will get 70 or more % of the carries. 600 carries is an insanely high number to imagine one guy getting 70% of the work. Say the Jets come back down to a more reasonable 520 carries... If Greene gets 60% of the carries, that's just over 300 carries. Which means LT would get most of the rest (McKnight looks like a bust so far) plus the majority of 3rd down work. Not bad, I guess... But what about goalline work? Shonn Greene fumbled 3 times with those 108 carries last season. What happens if he puts one on the carpet in week 1? And can his body hold up with that heavy a workload? There's evidence there from last year that it might not, and the last thing you want is Greene to lay an egg or miss games at the end of the season.

 

There is enough reason to consider him risky as an RB1.

[Rovers]

The thing with Greene is can he stay healthy with his bruising running style? If he can, he'll be a top 10 RB easilly. Maybe even top 5 in 0.5PPR formats. Frankly, even as a die hard Jets fan, I have my doubts if he can avoid missing too many games due to injury to live up to first round status. I think the risk becomes acceptable in the third round of a 12 team league. I would be sure to get Tomlinson if I drafted Greene, and would pick LT over his ADP to be sure to get him as a handcuff. I would also keep my eye on C Washington. If Greene goes down, CW will get some playing time.

 

300 carries if he stays healthy. A handfull of catches. I'm also not so sure that Tomlinson will get the GL carries either. Probably more dependent on the down.

[Capt. Stanky]

Simple, he's a 2nd round pick in Non-PPR and a late 3rd in PPR. He's Steven Davis/Rudi Johnson during their productive days. Lots of rushing yards and double digit TD's but nothing in the receiving numbers. I've been passing on him due to durability concerns.

[BearBroncos]

The thing with Greene is can he stay healthy with his bruising running style? If he can, he'll be a top 10 RB easilly. Maybe even top 5 in 0.5PPR formats. Frankly, even as a die hard Jets fan, I have my doubts if he can avoid missing too many games due to injury to live up to first round status. I think the risk becomes acceptable in the third round of a 12 team league. I would be sure to get Tomlinson if I drafted Greene, and would pick LT over his ADP to be sure to get him as a handcuff. I would also keep my eye on C Washington. If Greene goes down, CW will get some playing time.

 

300 carries if he stays healthy. A handfull of catches. I'm also not so sure that Tomlinson will get the GL carries either. Probably more dependent on the down.

 

That's the one thing that does scare me about Greene. He's committed to sustaining that rough style of running. He doesn't believe in running out of bounds which in the NFL, that could mean a 50% drop in production n the second half of the season due to fatigue.

 

I suspect, however, after a few knock outs by a 380 lbs lineman, he will get the hint and play a little more of a conservative game. Granted, I wouldn't want to see him get to conservative because his smash mouth style of ball is what makes him.

[piratesownninjas]

Potentially the most over-rated player in my mind heading into drafts this season. 99% of this guys hype is based off of 2-3 games. He was dinged up and missed action at two times last season after carrying the ball 109 times. Pair that with the fact he can't/wont catch the ball enough to merit a first or second round pick.

People will point to how great the Jets were last year, but they did lose a leader at guard in Fanica. They're now going to feel all of the pressure placed on them by the media from last years run, bringing in every free agent possible, and a loud-mouth coach. Teams are going to stack the box and make Sanchez beat them. If Revis is holding out there defense takes a significant hit. I just don't buy into him or a team that had to have two teams lay down for them in weeks 16 and 17 for them to make there playoff run. I'm staying away from all Jets this year.

[Avernus]

I really liked Greene as a RB2 before LT came in to town, after that I really wonder how much they plan on working him - but then again, maybe Greene would thrive on less touches throughout the game....

 

imagine him getting most of his touches in the 3rd/4th quarter against a beat up defense while he's running with his physical style...

 

he could really beat up opposing D's in the latter portion of games, but LT would have to be somewhat productive in the 1st half...which I don't think he's capable of doing..

[BOARHOGZ]

I agree!!! The Jets ran 607 times last year, nearly 20% more than the second highest run team with CJ and there are no plans in changing their scheme. Expect Greene to get at least 250 touches (and thats extremely conservative) and if he holds onto the ball and avoids major injury, you could see him get the most yards and TD's this season. Granted, LT will take his toll on Greenes TD numbers, but I think there will be ample opportunities for both.

 

Which makes you wonder ...better to take Greene as a #1/high 2 or LT as your flex....

[WashingtonD]

Non PPR - Early to Mid Second Rounder with little doubt

PPR - He drops to third round, maybe even fourth

 

He doesn't catch passes...that really hurts him, I've heard and seen nothing to indicate that is going to change.

 

Tomlinson getting carries? Did anyone watch last year? It wasn't his line that was the problem, it was his inability to accelerate and hit holes and get into space. He won't even get the business down by goal line.

[Rovers]

Potentially the most over-rated player in my mind heading into drafts this season. 99% of this guys hype is based off of 2-3 games. He was dinged up and missed action at two times last season after carrying the ball 109 times. Pair that with the fact he can't/wont catch the ball enough to merit a first or second round pick.

People will point to how great the Jets were last year, but they did lose a leader at guard in Fanica. They're now going to feel all of the pressure placed on them by the media from last years run, bringing in every free agent possible, and a loud-mouth coach. Teams are going to stack the box and make Sanchez beat them. If Revis is holding out there defense takes a significant hit. I just don't buy into him or a team that had to have two teams lay down for them in weeks 16 and 17 for them to make there playoff run. I'm staying away from all Jets this year.

 

 

Hate much? Now that you got yer Jet hatred rant over, let's dispell your "facts".

 

Teams stacked the box last year. Nuthin new there. Status quo. His hype is 99% what? Only to people who are blinded by the light, or live in the darkness of ignorance. Allow me:

 

Greene's last 9 games, including playoffs:

118 carries

627 yards

YPC- 5.3

13 carries per game over 9 games

 

Lets take out the 3 playoff games, where all the "hype" comes from, and look at weeks 12-17:

64 carries

323 yards

YPC- 5.0

10.6 carries per game over 6 games

 

Now the 3 playoff games:

54 carries

304 yards

YPC-5.63

18 carries per game

 

Let's not include his 19 for 144, YPC 7.6 agianst Oakland in week 7. Let's not mention TD runs of 33, 39 and 52 yards with limited carries. Even if you remove weeks 16 and 17 when Indy laid down and Cincy, ok, you wanna say Cincy laid down, even though Greene rocked them in the playoffs for 135 yards and a YPC of 6.4... the numbers don't change much.

 

Your info on his two injuries is all wrong too. He was injured in the preseason and missed the first few games. He then had 162 carries until he got the rib injury against Indy in the AFC Championship game. Wrong again. I'll give you this, as it might be the source of your confusion, he also got hurt earlier in training camp last year, then got reinjured just before the season started. I doubt facts will clear your mind of Jets bias however.

 

As far as loud mothed coach... OK. signing every available FA? So much for any possible objective evaluation by you of any player on the Jets. Hate away. It's just what the new Jets like to hear.

 

Oh, and BTW, I voted Greene as a 3rd rounder.... ONLY because of injury risks due to running style, not injury history so much.

[BS Miscreant]

Potentially the most over-rated player in my mind heading into drafts this season. 99% of this guys hype is based off of 2-3 games. He was dinged up and missed action at two times last season after carrying the ball 109 times. Pair that with the fact he can't/wont catch the ball enough to merit a first or second round pick.

People will point to how great the Jets were last year, but they did lose a leader at guard in Fanica. They're now going to feel all of the pressure placed on them by the media from last years run, bringing in every free agent possible, and a loud-mouth coach. Teams are going to stack the box and make Sanchez beat them. If Revis is holding out there defense takes a significant hit. I just don't buy into him or a team that had to have two teams lay down for them in weeks 16 and 17 for them to make there playoff run. I'm staying away from all Jets this year.

I agree with much of this. I don't know about staying away from all Jets this year but as of now I have mid to late first round picks in my leagues and that's just too early to take him even with my second rounder. Otherwise, I might consider him late in the second but more likely the third. Given where I know I'm drafting the third is the earliest I would seriously consider him. Granted, 500 - 600 carries for a team means he has plenty of opportunities even if sharing but like my feelings on J Charles I've gotta see more than just a few real good games to draft a guy in the top 15 - 20.

As for the LT effect, it was discussed quite a bit last year early on about how the SD O-line was a question mark and that LT might suffer. Well, he did and so did Sproles from a yds/car perspective so I'm not sure you can completely write LT off just yet.

I love Greene's upside, just not enough to take him that early.

[Rovers]

I agree with much of this. I don't know about staying away from all Jets this year but as of now I have mid to late first round picks in my leagues and that's just too early to take him even with my second rounder. Otherwise, I might consider him late in the second but more likely the third. Given where I know I'm drafting the third is the earliest I would seriously consider him. Granted, 500 - 600 carries for a team means he has plenty of opportunities even if sharing but like my feelings on J Charles I've gotta see more than just a few real good games to draft a guy in the top 15 - 20.

As for the LT effect, it was discussed quite a bit last year early on about how the SD O-line was a question mark and that LT might suffer. Well, he did and so did Sproles from a yds/car perspective so I'm not sure you can completely write LT off just yet.

I love Greene's upside, just not enough to take him that early.

 

I'd like to know which parts of that you agree with. Most of his post was anti-Jets ranting, and, factually incorrect.

[MTSuper7]

I'd like to know which parts of that you agree with. Most of his post was anti-Jets ranting, and, factually incorrect.

 

Weird... I thought he made a few valid points. Greene's hype was built in the playoffs. Losing Faneca might make a difference. They did bring in Holmes and Cromartie, and Revis may hold out, all of which adds to the pressure there in NY. The only potential hate was the last couple sentences about not buying into them because they had two lay down games in weeks 16 and 17 and about avoiding all Jets this year.

[delusions of grandeur]

Tomlinson getting carries? Did anyone watch last year? It wasn't his line that was the problem, it was his inability to accelerate and hit holes and get into space. He won't even get the business down by goal line.

 

I can't believe you were the first to bring this up... Even if the Jet's do think that he's gotten his step back, I don't see them running him in the trenches or goal-line traffic much if at all, just to have him get banged up, and turn into that LT from last year again. Surely they saw that gamefilm, and I agree, he's no where near the same LT when he's beat up like that (and who knows if he's even gotten his step back like they've claimed).

 

I see them using him as a 3rd down/spell back like rumored, with still a ton of carries and of course goal-line work for the bruiser Greene. I might even reach for him at the end of the first in non-PPR or dynasty, and still worth a early/middle second to me, depending on amount of PPR.

Edited August 11, 2010 by delusions of granduer

[piratesownninjas]

Hate much? Now that you got yer Jet hatred rant over, let's dispell your "facts".

 

Teams stacked the box last year. Nuthin new there. Status quo. His hype is 99% what? Only to people who are blinded by the light, or live in the darkness of ignorance. Allow me:

 

Greene's last 9 games, including playoffs:

118 carries

627 yards

YPC- 5.3

13 carries per game over 9 games

 

Lets take out the 3 playoff games, where all the "hype" comes from, and look at weeks 12-17:

64 carries

323 yards

YPC- 5.0

10.6 carries per game over 6 games

 

Now the 3 playoff games:

54 carries

304 yards

YPC-5.63

18 carries per game

 

Let's not include his 19 for 144, YPC 7.6 agianst Oakland in week 7. Let's not mention TD runs of 33, 39 and 52 yards with limited carries. Even if you remove weeks 16 and 17 when Indy laid down and Cincy, ok, you wanna say Cincy laid down, even though Greene rocked them in the playoffs for 135 yards and a YPC of 6.4... the numbers don't change much.

 

Your info on his two injuries is all wrong too. He was injured in the preseason and missed the first few games. He then had 162 carries until he got the rib injury against Indy in the AFC Championship game. Wrong again. I'll give you this, as it might be the source of your confusion, he also got hurt earlier in training camp last year, then got reinjured just before the season started. I doubt facts will clear your mind of Jets bias however.

 

As far as loud mothed coach... OK. signing every available FA? So much for any possible objective evaluation by you of any player on the Jets. Hate away. It's just what the new Jets like to hear.

 

Oh, and BTW, I voted Greene as a 3rd rounder.... ONLY because of injury risks due to running style, not injury history so much.

Jets hate? I couldn't care less about the AFC East. I'm just not interested in Sanchez, Greene, Tomlinson, Holmes, or Edwards. I guess I should have said I'm staying away from every jets player sans Dustin Keller, as I think he can crack the top ten in TE's.

And Shonn Greene didn't face stacked boxes for an entire season. He only rushed for over 100 yards just once in the regular season, and scored his only regular season TD's in that game. That's the kind of hype I'm talking off. And I know that as soon as the jets cut Fanica everyone started talking about how much he sucked, but give me a break... Having a rookie replace him isn't going to help things.

And yes, if Greene injured himself in TC and then in the playoffs, that counts as 1, 2 injuries. I don't remember you being this big of a queen on the boards. So defensive.

 

 

I'd like to know which parts of that you agree with. Most of his post was anti-Jets ranting, and, factually incorrect.

Where is this Anti-Jets crap coming from? I predicted Mark Sanchez would be a better quarterback than Matt Stafford. I just don't like them for fantasy purposes, and I think it's crazy to annoint them the AFC favorites. Would you argue that they didn't have two teams lay down to just get in the playoffs? Relax Rovers.

Edited August 11, 2010 by piratesownninjas