The High Risk Darft Picks...

[Rovers]

So, how do you calculate risk picks into your draft strategies?

 

If your draft was a month ago, did you consider Favre? Did Harvin's migraine issues make you leery? Does the change in QB make you nervous about stellar studs like Fitz and Marshall? Did you worry about S Rice's hip injury?

 

I find myself staying away from players who have even small risks. Injuries first and foremost. Injuries KILL FF championship hopes. If a player has a questionable injury situation, like Rice and Harvin do, even Moreno in the the preseason, I'll most often go elsewhere. S Jackson and his back... I'll let someone else take that risk.

 

Next is the change of teams, or in Fitz's case, a QB change. I dropped both Marshall and Fitz down quite a bit, although I am less worried about Marshall now, I still don't feel comfortable drafting him. Will Boldin be a top 15 WR on a new team? Those kinds of risk factors are the easy ones. Now, the tough ones.

 

Can Rivers repeat without his L Tackle and V Jackson? And a new RB? Draft Greene, and find out Tomlinson gets the GL carries? Does Rothlisberger sit for 4 or 6 games?

 

The kicker for me is this:

Teams don't use game plans at all until week 3 of the preseason. Even then, it isn't what they do for regular season games. Some players, maybe a Mathews or a Marshall might look good now, but what happens when teams install game packages and double team Marshall? Or put a safety on Gates, since VJ isn't a worry, and stack the line against a Mathews? how does one use these early preseason games to gauge a player? Sure, you can give them the eyeball test, but teams aren't stacking the box to shut down a good rush offenese now, and aren't doubling recievers like Marshall.

 

How do you calculate risk? Ignore it in a case like Marshall or Fitz, or weigh that risk carefully? I tend to avoid any kind of risk I can, or at least keep it to a bare minimum until later rounds. Doing that, generally means another owner will take the player I see as a risk before I would.

 

Risk categories:

Injury

Ball distribution (targets and GL carries especially)

QB changes

Player movement (IE: no V Jackson in SD)

Team changes (Boldin, Marshal)

A player's injury history

Coaching changes

 

How much do you modify your rankings based on risk?

[ABearWithFurniture]

I was told there'd be no math...

[Ram Man]

I think you're going a bit overboard. I could make a case of risk with every player. I can see viewing injuries as a risk, but a change of QB? C'mon now. Maybe if the QB sucks...like Leinart, but don't toss Marshall into that mix. He did better than most WRs last year when he lost Cutler and was forced to look at Orton everyday. And even though I'm not a Dolphins fan, I can see that Orton couldn't carry Henne's jock. You just can't avoid all risk because they all have it buddy. TOP 10 WR Risk Factor

1. Andre Johnson: TE Daniels is back and the emergence of a better supporting cast plus an upgrade in the running game could hurt his numbers.

2. Randy Moss: He's is old and has lost a step and Brady isn't what he used to be.

3. Reggie Wayne: He has lost a step, Clark has become Manning's favorite target, and Manning spreads the ball around way too much.

4. Miles Austin: They drafted super stud Dez Bryant and the coaching staff has admitted they want to get Witten more involved.

5. Roddy White: Nothing comes to mind. Maybe he is due for a season ending injury?

6. Larry Fitzgerald: Matt Leinart...nuff said.

7. Calvin Johnson: Stafford is still young and learning the game. But the more I think about it, the peices brought in should make Calivin SHINE.

8. Brandon Marshall: New QB...blahhh blahh

9. Sidney Rice: Favre's a year older but his ankle is ten years older. Rice's hip is jacked up.

10. DeSean Jackson: New QB....blahh blahh blahh.

 

The bottom line is, you gotta figure out what is really risk and what is really rumor...and avoid the injuried guys. I'll give you that.

[MrTed46]

5. Roddy White: Nothing comes to mind. Maybe he is due for a season ending injury?

 

[BeeR]

I think you're going a bit overboard. I could make a case of risk with every player

Based on your post above, no, clearly you can't. But your point stands. There are potential issues with every player.

 

Still, guys with known injury issues I avoid big time since I've been burned on it too many times. I've never made a move for St Jackson and never will, I don't care if he gains 3000 yds and 20 TDs this year.

[MTSuper7]

I specifically stayed away from Moreno and Rice because of their injury situations. Both seem to have significant issues, and if a player misses all of training camp and even the first week or two of the regular season (or more), I don't want to start 0-2 or 0-3 because of it. In Moreno's case, I don't see how you can paritally tear your hamstring and somehow be 100% a month later. He's going to start the season SLOW, and these guys get direct and indirect pressure to play through injury too, which is why I'll be cringing when Moreno suits up for week 1.

 

As for other high risk players, one guy not mentioned in this thread is Ryan Mathews. He's an unproven rookie starting for a pass-first team that won't have it's LT or WR1 for the year or at least a significant portion of it from all signs. To make matters worse, he won't get the 3rd down work with Sproles there, and even Mike Tolbert got a goalline TD with the first team offense in their first preseason game. He is typically going in the 2nd round, and I feel like there is an awful lot of risk to pick him that high.

[Avernus]

I calculate certain risks as higher than others and certain players have intangibles that have me consider those risks minimal....

 

take Shonn Greene for instance - LT is on the final peg of his career and is brought in for depth and he is LT....while Shonn Greene is the starter behind what might be the best OL in the NFL....

 

another is Ryan Mathews - another very good OL in SD and they will still have a good passing game without VJax, it just won't be as efficient...Mathews runs and catches which I think makes Sproles more like the back he was when LT started and was effective due to the fact that Turner usually focuses on one RB if he is effective...

 

these two players have more upside and intangibles that favor them...

 

Fitz on the other hand just lost two major pieces around him and has a never-got-it-done young QB who is showing flashes of the player that I know he is - a scrub in Leinart...Fitz is on a must avoid level and I've dropped him so far down my rankings to assure I do not draft him unless it's as a #3....

 

I could go on, but I don't want to delve much further into things - the real question is "where do I have the players I favor ranked?" and that's something I don't want to talk about due to anyone in my local perusing these forums as our draft is in 2 weeks...

[Avernus]

I think you're going a bit overboard. I could make a case of risk with every player. I can see viewing injuries as a risk, but a change of QB? C'mon now. Maybe if the QB sucks...like Leinart, but don't toss Marshall into that mix. He did better than most WRs last year when he lost Cutler and was forced to look at Orton everyday. And even though I'm not a Dolphins fan, I can see that Orton couldn't carry Henne's jock. You just can't avoid all risk because they all have it buddy. TOP 10 WR Risk Factor

1. Andre Johnson: TE Daniels is back and the emergence of a better supporting cast plus an upgrade in the running game could hurt his numbers.

2. Randy Moss: He's is old and has lost a step and Brady isn't what he used to be.

3. Reggie Wayne: He has lost a step, Clark has become Manning's favorite target, and Manning spreads the ball around way too much.

4. Miles Austin: They drafted super stud Dez Bryant and the coaching staff has admitted they want to get Witten more involved.

5. Roddy White: Nothing comes to mind. Maybe he is due for a season ending injury?

6. Larry Fitzgerald: Matt Leinart...nuff said.

7. Calvin Johnson: Stafford is still young and learning the game. But the more I think about it, the peices brought in should make Calivin SHINE.

8. Brandon Marshall: New QB...blahhh blahh

9. Sidney Rice: Favre's a year older but his ankle is ten years older. Rice's hip is jacked up.

10. DeSean Jackson: New QB....blahh blahh blahh.

 

The bottom line is, you gotta figure out what is really risk and what is really rumor...and avoid the injuried guys. I'll give you that.

 

 

I think you're reaching with AJ, Austin and White here..

[Scooby's Hubby]

Team Changes include several other of your risk categories like QB change and Coach change.

 

Brandon Marshal kinda scares me b/c you could assume that Henne will be baby stepped along by the coaching staff. With (2) 1,000 yard rushers all of a sudden, B Marshall may not get 100+ catches. He has new coaches who have never used him before and those coaches are set in their ways of playcalling, he has a new QB who is barely above rookie status, and the ball distribution will be totally different than in Denver b/c of Ricky and Ronnie and the wildcat.

[NAUgrad]

As for other high risk players, one guy not mentioned in this thread is Ryan Mathews. He's an unproven rookie starting for a pass-first team that won't have it's LT or WR1 for the year or at least a significant portion of it from all signs. To make matters worse, he won't get the 3rd down work with Sproles there, and even Mike Tolbert got a goalline TD with the first team offense in their first preseason game. He is typically going in the 2nd round, and I feel like there is an awful lot of risk to pick him that high.

I still think SD is a pass first team because they had to be, not because that's who they are. I believe that Matthews will get the ball a ton and if effective, the SD offense then is more of a 50/50 split team.

 

No facts on this, just a hunch.

[Thews40]

I think you're reaching with AJ, Austin and White here..

Agree. How can AJ's numbers be worse when surrounded by more talent? They say they're going to get Witten the ball more every year, but they get it to him a ton. I read that Gonzo has beefed up this year which would imply he's intending to be a better blocker. Regardless, there's simply no rational reason to predict an injury.

[HowboutthemCowboys]

4. Miles Austin: They drafted super stud Dez Bryant and the coaching staff has admitted they want to get Witten more involved.

witten caught 175 balls the last 2 years.

[Rovers]

I think you're going a bit overboard. I could make a case of risk with every player. I can see viewing injuries as a risk, but a change of QB? C'mon now. Maybe if the QB sucks...like Leinart, but don't toss Marshall into that mix. He did better than most WRs last year when he lost Cutler and was forced to look at Orton everyday. And even though I'm not a Dolphins fan, I can see that Orton couldn't carry Henne's jock. You just can't avoid all risk because they all have it buddy. TOP 10 WR Risk Factor

1. Andre Johnson: TE Daniels is back and the emergence of a better supporting cast plus an upgrade in the running game could hurt his numbers.

2. Randy Moss: He's is old and has lost a step and Brady isn't what he used to be.

3. Reggie Wayne: He has lost a step, Clark has become Manning's favorite target, and Manning spreads the ball around way too much.

4. Miles Austin: They drafted super stud Dez Bryant and the coaching staff has admitted they want to get Witten more involved.

5. Roddy White: Nothing comes to mind. Maybe he is due for a season ending injury?

6. Larry Fitzgerald: Matt Leinart...nuff said.

7. Calvin Johnson: Stafford is still young and learning the game. But the more I think about it, the peices brought in should make Calivin SHINE.

8. Brandon Marshall: New QB...blahhh blahh

9. Sidney Rice: Favre's a year older but his ankle is ten years older. Rice's hip is jacked up.

10. DeSean Jackson: New QB....blahh blahh blahh.

 

The bottom line is, you gotta figure out what is really risk and what is really rumor...and avoid the injuried guys. I'll give you that.

 

Not going overboard at all. You made my point by stating every player carries risk. I was not implying that every player I mentioned was a high risk. What my question is how much do you factor in risk, and which risk factors tend to impact your rankings more than others might.

 

I've seen people swear off players who have an injury history, like Gore and S Jackson, although neither of them have ever missed a half season or more.

 

I take a wait and see attitude on players like Marshall this year. Henne looks like a decent QB, but how much will Marshall's production fall off? I don't think he's any kind of lock to repeat last year's numbers. Santonio Holmes casrries his own particular risk. New team on a team that will remain run oriented. Not to mention a somewhat crowded WR corp and he misses the first 4 games.

 

Harvin- migraines, Rice- hip and Fitz -no QB are all players that will go before I would take them because I see too much risk.

 

I generally won't take RB's from certain teams (coaches) like NE, WAS, DEN. To a lesser extent, I don't like Mendenhall either with his O line, a stacked box and a lame duck QB to start the season.

 

This year I like Lee Evans late, even though BUF is awful and lacks a QB. He is hanging around very late in drafts to the point his risk becomes acceptable. In most drafts, I've seen people flat out ignore Evans. They just don't like his situation, which to me is also risk.

 

When I draft IDP, I load up on LB's because they get injured so often... risk inherent to the position.

 

I don't have any formula for risk taking. It's more a gut feeling thing for me. I suppose the number crunchers could come up with a rating system for risk, but even if there were a sytem to rate risk, the assumptions of risk might not fall in line with mine. .

[MoOnshine22]

5. Roddy White: Nothing comes to mind. Maybe he is due for a season ending injury?

Dude....you just ended Roddy White's season. not cool

[Avernus]

Not going overboard at all. You made my point by stating every player carries risk. I was not implying that every player I mentioned was a high risk. What my question is how much do you factor in risk, and which risk factors tend to impact your rankings more than others might.

 

I've seen people swear off players who have an injury history, like Gore and S Jackson, although neither of them have ever missed a half season or more.

 

I take a wait and see attitude on players like Marshall this year. Henne looks like a decent QB, but how much will Marshall's production fall off? I don't think he's any kind of lock to repeat last year's numbers. Santonio Holmes casrries his own particular risk. New team on a team that will remain run oriented. Not to mention a somewhat crowded WR corp and he misses the first 4 games.

 

Harvin- migraines, Rice- hip and Fitz -no QB are all players that will go before I would take them because I see too much risk.

 

I generally won't take RB's from certain teams (coaches) like NE, WAS, DEN. To a lesser extent, I don't like Mendenhall either with his O line, a stacked box and a lame duck QB to start the season.

 

This year I like Lee Evans late, even though BUF is awful and lacks a QB. He is hanging around very late in drafts to the point his risk becomes acceptable. In most drafts, I've seen people flat out ignore Evans. They just don't like his situation, which to me is also risk.

 

When I draft IDP, I load up on LB's because they get injured so often... risk inherent to the position.

 

I don't have any formula for risk taking. It's more a gut feeling thing for me. I suppose the number crunchers could come up with a rating system for risk, but even if there were a sytem to rate risk, the assumptions of risk might not fall in line with mine. .

 

 

I don't do any number crunching when it comes to risk....I factor it in my rankings and that's where I decide how big a deal I see that players risk whether it be a bad situation, injury history/hurt during camp/pre-season, new HC/QB etc. etc..

 

as long as you have yourself well informed come draft day, it's not a difficult method to follow....

[Rovers]

I don't do any number crunching when it comes to risk....I factor it in my rankings and that's where I decide how big a deal I see that players risk whether it be a bad situation, injury history/hurt during camp/pre-season, new HC/QB etc. etc..

 

as long as you have yourself well informed come draft day, it's not a difficult method to follow....

 

That is pretty much how I handle it too. In the back of my mind, I have my own idea of how much risk a given player has. I don't even make my own rankings. I'll use a cheat sheet, and eyeball it as the draft progresses mostly just to cross off players who have been taken. I know what players I value higher (or lower) than the cheat sheet does. I spend too much time on this hobby, but because I'm addicted, it's all stored away in my noggin. I might put a red dot on a risk player, and a green dot next to the ones I think are undervalued just to keep them in mind.

 

I've always been an analog drafter as opposed to a digital one. I don't want to read about this metric or that algorithym. I'm no mathemetician, and while I use stats as everyone does, trying to turn FF into some math equation is not only ineffective, it takes the fun out of it. My weighted projections have no numbers. It's not written down, nor can it be calculated. I still manage to do prety well in FF.

[Avernus]

That is pretty much how I handle it too. In the back of my mind, I have my own idea of how much risk a given player has. I don't even make my own rankings. I'll use a cheat sheet, and eyeball it as the draft progresses mostly just to cross off players who have been taken. I know what players I value higher (or lower) than the cheat sheet does. I spend too much time on this hobby, but because I'm addicted, it's all stored away in my noggin. I might put a red dot on a risk player, and a green dot next to the ones I think are undervalued just to keep them in mind.

 

I've always been an analog drafter as opposed to a digital one. I don't want to read about this metric or that algorithym. I'm no mathemetician, and while I use stats as everyone does, trying to turn FF into some math equation is not only ineffective, it takes the fun out of it. My weighted projections have no numbers. It's not written down, nor can it be calculated. I still manage to do prety well in FF.

 

 

I usually do a cheat sheet of my top 20 players or so for each position between QB, RB and WR....the rest I'll use a Huddle printout and just mark off players I want to target...

 

the only problem is remembering to cross off a player that is drafted on two different papers...

 

and while I'm good at math this isn't a mathematician's game....it's a game based on luck, gut and educated guesses...eliminating risk is as good as an educated guess...

[Steeltown D]

Risk boils down to what you are comfortable with. Do I feel comfortable drafting this guy here, knowing what I know.

 

We all have our "gut feelings" about team change, QB change, coaching changes....What can you live with? I will use Marshall as my example. I believe that Marshall is a guy that can make a QB. There aren't very many WR that can do that but, I think he is one of them. I don't think he will repeat last years numbers but, I do think he will live up to his draft position of early-mid 2nd round or tier 2 numbers. Yes, Henne is unproven and Miami is a run first and then run some more team, this is due in part because they haven't had a Marshall to pass to or a Henne type arm to pass with. I don't see Miami changing what has worked for them... but I do see Marshall, working for them.

 

Bouldin is in a similar situation and yet I temper my expectations because I don't believe he is a WR that can make a QB. He is very talented and will have a great impact on his team, but yet I don't see him duplicating the numbers he put up in AZ. I am sure I am in the minority but, that is my take and I would prefer to leave him there for someone else to pay a higher price than I would be willing to pay.

 

I asses risk to where I am comfortable taking a player and adjust my rankings accordingly.

[kingfish247]

Risk categories:

Injury

Ball distribution (targets and GL carries especially)

QB changes

Player movement (IE: no V Jackson in SD)

Team changes (Boldin, Marshal)

A player's injury history

Coaching changes

 

How much do you modify your rankings based on risk?

I like to take a 'reversion to the mean' philosophy when grading FF value. Each player has a mean production based on a variety of factors. I'm always SKEPTICAL of the HIGH value of a player. And I always EXPECT the LOW value of every player.

 

It's usually pretty easy to ID guys who played above their heads as long as you approach grading them with an ounce of skepticism rather than just chasing prior production. We have data from the past you can look at including the things you listed. Trick is ID'ing a guy who has more to offer than the mean because all you have to go by are the factors you listed. I never really assume injury unless there's recent history to suggest otherwise (ie. lots of recent injuries and/or heavier than normal workload).

 

Where I deviate from this philosophy are usually in season trades but it's pretty much the same philosophy...cutting ties with a guy who has torn it up over a favorable 6 game stretch for a guy who struggled due to many unfavorable factors whose outlook actually looks more favorable. This still requires a 'gut feeling' since it's taking a leap.

 

All of this sounds pretty dull and cold but for me this approach makes it fun. Rather than making decisions on guys based on scattershot 'gut' feelings, I can assemble a team that will compete with most any other team in any given FF league any week. None of my guys will be 'swing for the fences' types but I'll never field a dud...and there's really nothing worse in FF than that.

[Rovers]

I like to take a 'reversion to the mean' philosophy when grading FF value. Each player has a mean production based on a variety of factors. I'm always SKEPTICAL of the HIGH value of a player. And I always EXPECT the LOW value of every player.

 

It's usually pretty easy to ID guys who played above their heads as long as you approach grading them with an ounce of skepticism rather than just chasing prior production. We have data from the past you can look at including the things you listed. Trick is ID'ing a guy who has more to offer than the mean because all you have to go by are the factors you listed. I never really assume injury unless there's recent history to suggest otherwise (ie. lots of recent injuries and/or heavier than normal workload).

 

Where I deviate from this philosophy are usually in season trades but it's pretty much the same philosophy...cutting ties with a guy who has torn it up over a favorable 6 game stretch for a guy who struggled due to many unfavorable factors whose outlook actually looks more favorable. This still requires a 'gut feeling' since it's taking a leap.

 

All of this sounds pretty dull and cold but for me this approach makes it fun. Rather than making decisions on guys based on scattershot 'gut' feelings, I can assemble a team that will compete with most any other team in any given FF league any week. None of my guys will be 'swing for the fences' types but I'll never field a dud...and there's really nothing worse in FF than that.

 

Interesting. I wonder if you wouldn't mind taking an example, say Greene vs. Tomlinson. Many feel Greene is an injury risk due to his running style. Others think Tomlinson is toast, but has looked pretty good in preseason. New team, better O line. I still don't know who gets the GL carries.

 

Using your method, I guess you have to rank both of them as not getting the GL carries, is that right? That would both of them nearly undraftable. While I haven't drafted Greene, I suspect he gets the GL stuff, but that is another risk factor.

[Thews40]

Using your method, I guess you have to rank both of them as not getting the GL carries, is that right? That would both of them nearly undraftable. While I haven't drafted Greene, I suspect he gets the GL stuff, but that is another risk factor.

Tomlinson has far greater reward for the risk as it comes cheap if you can get him in the 10th... the key is where you get him. The risk of a Greene injury strengthens the chance Tomlinson will hit. If Greene gets injured, LT doesn’t have to play a down and the owner will prolly trade. What do you want in the 10th? I picked up Donald Brown in the 9th just because his upside has many factors. 1) He’s on a good team. 2) He’s past his rookie year blowing blocks and letting the golden one get sacked which is a no no in Indy. 3) He is the one to take the reigns once Addai burns out, and if Addai struggles, he’ll hit. He’s a good bye week fill and if everything plays as it should and he’s not a factor, what did I lose… going with Lee Evans for a bye week fill?

 

The risk/reward is all about the first few picks IMO. Guys like Manning and Brees are there year after year. RB’s get hurt, and while WR’s not as much, it happens. I love Gates this year and don’t expect him to get hurt. It may happen, just as it can always happen, but I don’t expect it. Does anyone expect Greene to get hurt? Who doesn’t expect Brandon Jacobs to get hurt? Based on his past you wouldn’t be surprised, but while you don’t expect it you should cover. There’s still gas in the tanks of guys like T. Jones, Fred Taylor, Chester Taylor, LT and more than a few others. If you’re going to roll the WR dice early, it makes sense to roll the backup RB dice later. If you have two stud WR’s you don’t need 4 more to see if you hit.

[BS Miscreant]

I certainly take risk into consideration but this year most of the risk factors seem to be tied to the fact that most of the "risky" players that are being mentioned are either being drafted higher than I would anyway or have comparable talent around the spots at which they are going.

 

The one guy that really has me spooked this year is Harvin because of the migraine thing. His issues with it appear to be getting worse or at least more frequent. He doesn't even have to get injured in the conventional sense and could still miss significant time at several different times throughout the year. I'm looking at him much like I look at the guys with hamstring issues... someone I'd likely draft late as a guy with great upside but potentially equal risk due to the tendency for these to be recurring.

[Rovers]

I certainly take risk into consideration but this year most of the risk factors seem to be tied to the fact that most of the "risky" players that are being mentioned are either being drafted higher than I would anyway or have comparable talent around the spots at which they are going.

 

The one guy that really has me spooked this year is Harvin because of the migraine thing. His issues with it appear to be getting worse or at least more frequent. He doesn't even have to get injured in the conventional sense and could still miss significant time at several different times throughout the year. I'm looking at him much like I look at the guys with hamstring issues... someone I'd likely draft late as a guy with great upside but potentially equal risk due to the tendency for these to be recurring.

 

I went into my redrafts with an absolute "hands off" re:Harvin. Migraines aren't a red flag, they are a ship afire out at sea as far as I am concerned. Don't wanna go there. Don't want my relatives on that ship.

 

But, I never was crazy about drafting Santana Moss, until this year. McNabb can sling it, and Moss is a good deep threat. Forget the ADP, I'd take Moss over Harvin easilly. But Moss can be had at least 2 rounds later. So can a TO. Safe picks. Not swinging for the fences picks, but a lot safer than Harvin is. That is typical of how I weigh risk.

[kingfish247]

Interesting. I wonder if you wouldn't mind taking an example, say Greene vs. Tomlinson. Many feel Greene is an injury risk due to his running style. Others think Tomlinson is toast, but has looked pretty good in preseason. New team, better O line. I still don't know who gets the GL carries.

 

Using your method, I guess you have to rank both of them as not getting the GL carries, is that right? That would both of them nearly undraftable. While I haven't drafted Greene, I suspect he gets the GL stuff, but that is another risk factor.

Injury risk due to running style is not something I'd consider unless we're talking about a guy who has a weird/smallish body type. I'd rather deal with injury risk due to actual occurence of injury. I think LT's career is pretty close to being over so there's a high expectation of LOW value there. Greene as the primary, LT as the spell guy sounds right. GL carries? Eh, see no reason that either would be in or pulled at the GL over the other. A stat share breakdown like last year seems about right for both...with Greene assuming Jones' role and LT assuming Washington/Greene's role. Maybe LT hawks 2 or so more TDs.

 

Basically I see no reason Greene won't be the primary for the duration of the season. Barring Greene missing lots of time, LT will get the scraps which may still mean some decent value but not enough to warrant anything other than a cuff for the Greene owner or a bench spot if you're keen on waiting for a Greene injury.

[Randall]

2. Randy Moss: He's is old and has lost a step and Brady isn't what he used to be.

 

The bottom line is, you gotta figure out what is really risk and what is really rumor...and avoid the injuried guys. I'll give you that.

 

 

 

I don't agree. I think both are out to prove they are still on top.

 

 

 

I went into my redrafts with an absolute "hands off" re:Harvin. Migraines aren't a red flag, they are a ship afire out at sea as far as I am concerned. Don't wanna go there. Don't want my relatives on that ship.

 

But, I never was crazy about drafting Santana Moss, until this year. McNabb can sling it, and Moss is a good deep threat. Forget the ADP, I'd take Moss over Harvin easilly. But Moss can be had at least 2 rounds later. So can a TO. Safe picks. Not swinging for the fences picks, but a lot safer than Harvin is. That is typical of how I weigh risk.

 

 

 

Meachem is going late too and could be very high reward even if Brees goes down.

Edited August 26, 2010 by Randall