***Official Week 2 Wagering Thread***

[kroyrunner89]

Chiefs +1 @ Browns 38

Bills +13 @ Packers 43

Ravens -1 @ Bengals 40

Steelers +5 @ Titans 37

Eagles -4.5 @ Lions 41

Bears +9 @ Cowboys 41

Bucs +3.5 @ Panthers 38

Cardinals +6.5 @ Falcons 43

Dolphins +5.5 @ Vikings 39

Rams +4 @ Raiders 37.5

Seahawks +3.5 @ Broncos 39.5

Texans -3 @ Redskins 44

Jaguars +7.5 @ Chargers 45.5

Patriots -1.5 @ Jets 38.5

Giants +5.5 @ Colts 48

Saints -4.5 @ 49ers 44

 

Good luck this week everyone!

[nimal]

Broke even last week despite getting killed by San Fran...

 

Will be going hard on:

 

New England - Revis will lock down Moss, but Welker will kill the others....

 

Atlanta - Defense is very good, and Ryan and co will have their way vs a weak Cardinal team

 

Miami - Very good run defense and a run offense that is far superior to Pierre Thomas and co....This spread should be like -3, but the Favre love factor has vegas giving them 3 more points then they deserve...ill take Miami here

 

Philadelphia - This defense will be in hill's face all day long, and as long as Vick can stay away from bad turnovers, this game could get ugly for Detroit

 

Baltimore - Those corners scare me, especially since I like Flacco much, but the Vet receivers will find ways to find seperation and Ray ray should be off to the races. Hard to see that Baltimore D failing against what I think is a very weak Cincy offense (despite some garbage time td's last week).

[CowboysDiehard]

Gonna watch from the sidelines this year for the most part. Good luck to all you bastages! Give'em hell, and make them send you a mutha-fokking check for once!

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

Last week 2 -2 with picks and 0-1 with over / under

This week I have

 

Bengals + 2

 

Steelers / Titans Over 37

 

Eagles - 4.5

 

Bears / Cowboys Over 41

[LosGatosEnFuegos]

2-1 last week.

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This week:

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KCC +1

 

HOU -3

 

NEP@NYJ U-38.5

[Bronco Billy]

Bills +13 @ Packers 43

 

I'm never a fan of giving a lot of points, but in GB with the D clicking and the offense having the ability to put up a ton of points in a hurry, I see GB covering this number by halftime and winning by at least 3 TDs. BUF won't be in a position for a back door cover during garbage time. There's just not enough on O for them to remotely keep up.

 

Bears +9 @ Cowboys 41

 

I'm going with CHI in this, not because I think they can win, but that it will be a close game and CHI has a puncher's chance of sneaking away with a late FG to steal the game. I'm still highly doubtful of the Cowboy O-line and I like CHI to be able to score enough to keep up. I see Peppers being a big factor in the outcome as he disrupts timing on the DAL passing game. Just too many points for DAL to be giving.

 

Bucs +3.5 @ Panthers 38

 

I'm not sure CAR is good enough to be favored by more than a FG against any team in the league. In a division game, even though TB and CAR are roughly even on paper, getting more than a FG spread tips me to a play on TB. I wouldn't load up on it, but I think there's money to be made.

 

Cardinals +6.5 @ Falcons 43

 

ATL looked dismal in the OT loss in PIT. I expect more out of their O, and AZ is starting to see what a mistake they made in going with Anderson as their starting QB. ATL just has too much firepower, and they ought to be highly motivated after laying a turd last week. This is another game where I think the home team gets away by halftime and covers easily - not allowing sufficient margin for even a backdoor cover, much like the GB game.

 

Rams +4 @ Raiders 37.5

 

Love the Raiders in this one. Bradford gets to visit the Black Hole in his second start, and OAK is definitely improved. If this were played in STL I'd lay off completely. In OAK? Lay the points easily. OAK is going to swarm the Rams.

 

Seahawks +3.5 @ Broncos 39.5

 

Love SEA getting pts in this one. The DEN O-line is still a wreck, and SEA D has a hell of a lot better front 7 than JAX. That's where this game turns. DEN's D line and LBs are going to have a rough time getting to Hasselbeck also, which means he'll carve up the secondary. You're going to see one QB running for his life the whole game while the other one may not even get his uniform dirty.

Edited September 17, 2010 by Bronco Billy

[Dexter Morgan]

Kansas City+1

Green Bay-13

Baltimore-1

Pittsburgh+5

Philadelphia-4.5

Chicago+9

Carolina-3.5

Atlanta-6.5

Minnesota-5.5

St. Louis+4

Denver-3.5

Houston-3

Jacksonville+7.5

New York Jets+1.5

New York Giants+5.5

New Orleans-4.5

[raoul duke]

Anyone trying any systems that they want to talk about? I don't have the patience for all the historical number crunching, so I just use ESPN to try things out. This year, I'm doing a system that picks all home favorites and home dogs up to +2.5. Last week 9-7.

[Bronco Billy]

Anyone trying any systems that they want to talk about? I don't have the patience for all the historical number crunching, so I just use ESPN to try things out. This year, I'm doing a system that picks all home favorites and home dogs up to +2.5. Last week 9-7.

 

Systems are for suckers.

[MTSuper7]

I usually like to pick three games that I feel okay about and tease them. I don't know why, but this is my preferred method of wagering. This week I've got:

 

Colts (even)

Broncos (+2.5)

Panthers (+2.5)

 

And my other pick 'em teaser is:

 

Eagles (even)

Dolphins (+12.5)

Patriots (+ 3.5)

 

My O/U teaser is:

 

BAL/CIN under 46.5

DAL/CHI over 34.5

NYG/IND over 42

[kroyrunner89]

* Minnesota/Miami UNDER 39.5 (-110 @ Pinnacle)

 

Miami's offense struggled on the road last week against a Buffalo defense that really isn't very good, and things get no easier for them this week as they travel to Minnesota and face one of the better defenses in the NFL. The running game has been the normal focus of attack for the Dolphins on offense, however matched up against one of the best run defenses in the NFL this week I don't see them being able to generate much production on the ground. This means that Henne will have to air the ball out against an injured Minnesota secondary, with the lack of chemistry he's shown so far with Brandon Marshall I don't think there's much of a threat of this offense finding many explosive plays. Griffin and Cook are both listed as questionable for this weekend, obviously if one or both of them play it helps our cause for the under, however even without them I think that points will be tough to come by in this one for the Dolphins.

 

On Minnesota's side of the ball, Favre will continue to adjust to life without Sydney Rice as he tries to develop some kind of chemistry with the other receivers. Adrian Peterson will be a threat as always, however the Minnesota offensive line hasn't shown me much recently and I think it's going to limit what the Vikings can do this year much more than last. The Miami defense looked improved last week against the Bills, and I think should be able to slow down the Minnesota attack enough to give themselves a shot at being in this game late. I don't think either team finds the end-zone more than twice, this game should end under the total without much problem.

 

* Dallas Cowboys -7 (-104 @ Pinnacle)

 

At first glance, the Cowboys don't seem like they should be favorites of a touchdown against anyone. Their offense has been sluggish since the preseason, and while the defense has looked pretty good the lack of points on the board has been tough to overcome. Regardless, this is the week I believe that changes. We all know how loaded the Cowboys are at the skill positions, but so far this year they've had offensive line issues that have limited what these players are able to do. This week, two big pieces return to the line as Marc Colombo and Kyle Kosier come back from injuries to offer this unit a boost at home against the hapless Bears. Chicago's defense is still a bit of a question mark, as we've yet to see if Julius Peppers and Brian Urlacher can still be the impact players they once were. Given how poorly this unit played on the road all of last season though, I think there's a good chance that the Cowboys' offensive line holds up much better this week and they put up 24+ points against Chicago.

 

As for the Bears' offense, despite racking up 362 yards of offense against the Lions they still managed to put only 19 points on the board. The offensive line also continues to be a huge concern, as Cutler took four more sacks against a Lions' defense that is certainly not as good as the Cowboys'. The running game also showed no signs of improvement last week as it took the team 31 carries to amass 100 yards. Most concerning for the Bears' offense though - 20 of Cutler's 26 interceptions last year came on the road. With Ware expected to play on defense for Dallas this week, expect the Dallas defense to be at full strength and Cutler to be under constant pressure. This should lead to a couple turnovers, and the Bears will lose this game by double digits when all is said and done.

 

* Green Bay Packers -13 (+102 @ Pinnacle)

 

The Packers ground out a tough win on the road last week against the Eagles, and return home this week to face a much softer Bills team. The Bills looked absolutely terrible on offense at home last week against the Dolphins, gaining just 166 yards of offense and scoring only 10 points - 7 of them due to a blown coverage on 4th and 11. While it's clear that Miami has improved on defense this year, Buffalo's struggles at home are certainly a preview of what to expect when they play what could very well be a better Packers defense this week on the road. Green Bay was one of the top defensive units last year, and despite losing some pieces still look to be solid this year as they were shutting down the Eagles' offense until Michael Vick entered the game. Simply put, the Bills don't have any kind of offensive player as multidimensional as Vick, and the Packers will do to this Buffalo offense what they were doing to the Eagles' before Kolb got knocked out of the game. If Buffalo finds a way to top 14 points in this game, I'll be stunned. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see their point total stay in single digits. For the Green Bay offense, that just leaves the task of scoring in the high 20s. While Philadelphia made Rodgers and the Packers' passing attack look average at times, Buffalo has no kind of blitzing threat to do this. Paul Posluszny will not be playing in this game due to an injury, and the Bills lost one of their best pass rushers from last year Aaron Schobel. Despite the pressure the Packers still managed to hang 27 points on the Eagles, and against a Buffalo defense that won't come close to matching what Philadelphia did I can easily see the Packers topping 30 points in this game. Green Bay should come out focused for their home opener, and open up a sizable lead by halftime. Look for a blowout win as the Packers tune up for their upcoming Monday night showdown against the Bears.

 

* New York Jets +3 (-115 @ Bookmaker)

 

The Jets aren't nearly as bad as they looked on Monday night, and the Patriots aren't nearly as good as they looked against the Bengals. While New York's offense certainly struggled against the Ravens, it's because their offense is not one that's cut out to take advantage of the Ravens' weaknesses in the secondary. Once Baltimore shut down the running game, it was all over for the Jets. Furthermore, Baltimore's offensive line is one of the best in the league, making it very tough for the Jets' blitzes to get to Flacco and allowing the Ravens to convert their 3rd and longs so many times. When Brady comes to town on Sunday, I can say with quite a bit of certainty that the Jets will be able to get quite a bit of pressure on him. While Brady looked great last Sunday against the Bengals, he never faced any kind of pressure whatsoever, and I think that it was more because of a lack of pass rush from the Bengals than to the credit of the offensive line. Logan Mankins is still holding out, and I expect his absence to show up in a big way this Sunday as Brady constantly finds himself under pressure. The Jets are going to open up their playbook for Sanchez this week, and I think that they'll get their running game going without much trouble which will allow him to be in more third and short situations rather than third and long. I'm not going to panic on the Jets and I'm going to stick with my opinion on them, look for them to get their first win this weekend.

 

* San Fransisco 49ers +5.5 (-102 @ Pinnacle)

 

I'm taking another shot with the 49ers as I think they find themselves in a very favorable spot this week. While their Week 1 loss to the Seahawks was very puzzling, early in the game I did see positive signs from them and recognize how easily they could have been up 14-0 in that game. Once things weren't going their way they completely fell apart, and played very far below the level of football they're capable of playing at. Monday night, the defending champion New Orleans Saints come to face the 49ers in what some people expect to be a blowout. One thing my mind keeps going back to though is last year when four point favorite Arizona played at San Fransisco on a Monday night. At the time the Cardinals were boasting a high flying passing attack, yet the 49ers completely shut down Warner and the Cardinals forcing six turnovers and holding the explosive Arizona offense to nine points. I've seen a pattern in the Saints over the last couple years where they play at a lower level on the road, and while their rush defense looked good against Minnesota in the opener I still don't trust the unit at all and think Frank Gore has a great chance to get going and put up some big yards in this game. The 49ers should control the clock and limit what Brees and the Saints' offense can do in this game, while an outright win is certainly possible I expect this game to go down to the wire and for the points to matter in the end.

 

 

Survivor Picks of the Week:

 

Green Bay Packers

 

Dallas Cowboys

 

 

That's it for this week everyone, good luck to anyone who wagers and hopefully we can get back on the winning track!

[HowboutthemCowboys]

Bills +13 @ Packers 43

 

I'm never a fan of giving a lot of points, but in GB with the D clicking and the offense having the ability to put up a ton of points in a hurry, I see GB covering this number by halftime and winning by at least 3 TDs. BUF won't be in a position for a back door cover during garbage time. There's just not enough on O for them to remotely keep up.

 

Bears +9 @ Cowboys 41

 

I'm going with CHI in this, not because I think they can win, but that it will be a close game and CHI has a puncher's chance of sneaking away with a late FG to steal the game. I'm still highly doubtful of the Cowboy O-line and I like CHI to be able to score enough to keep up. I see Peppers being a big factor in the outcome as he disrupts timing on the DAL passing game. Just too many points for DAL to be giving.

I LOVE GB too

 

Kosier and Colombo practiced and probable. Different team with those 2 in there. Dallas wins by double digits.

[Scooby's Hubby]

GB -13 HOU -3 MINN -5.5 wrap 'em up

 

Buff can't score, Wash can't score and MINN has had 10 days to prepare for their home opener against a can't score Miami offense without running the ball (earth to Ricky, it's gonna be a tough day so pack you one for half time )

Edited September 18, 2010 by Scooby's Hubby

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

Systems are for suckers.

 

Bronco not all systems are for suckers ,, system is a broad term. One I have used with much success but admittedly do not have the patients to use alone because it gives you very limited plays per week. Is to handi-cap a given weeks games by using what ever means you have found to be the most successful then only play dogs that you believe will win the game out right. With this system you may be lucky to find 1 or 2 under dogs tops per week that the stats give a chance of winning the game out right. Then if any of those picks you are getting 3 pts or greater that is your play. In the 2008 season I played my normal picks but kept a spread sheet of the games that fell into to criteria. Over the entire regular season only 5 games fit. They went 5 - 0 with 3 of them the same week so that meant using this system there was 14 weeks with no play. So if you have the patients and aren't a weekly better this may be a system you may want to try out.

 

So now that I laid it out is there any games this week that anyone sees that they believe the wrong team is favored ?

An under dog by 3 pts or more that should win out right ?

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

For the fun of it I looked at the Huddle ( David's ) predictions to see if any games he picked would fit this system ?

He has two under dogs winning out right Cinncy & KC but neither are a 3 pt dog

So no play this week but I'm going to follow his this season just to see how it plays out.

[Scooby's Hubby]

For the fun of it I looked at the Huddle ( David's ) predictions to see if any games he picked would fit this system ?

He has two under dogs winning out right Cinncy & KC but neither are a 3 pt dog

So no play this week but I'm going to follow his this season just to see how it plays out.

footballguys has a guy dedicated to wagering and he is no good ... I did something like you are talking about one year; I would right down the prediction scores, then Scooby's prediction and then mine and would use mean vs average of all predictions and then tease the most commonly liked and predicted. If there was a big difference between the spread and the consensus, then I would parlay. Now I just take the opposite of what everyone else does and that seems to work the best. Usually a sure thing is too good to be true.

Edited September 19, 2010 by Scooby's Hubby

[Swiss Cheezhead]

If anyone's able to bet on the over/under of 40 on the Bengals-Ravens game, you should JUMP on the over. I see 35-27 or something close to that.

 

Even before TO/Gresham/Benson, Palmer was able to score on the Ravens. Now, they have those guys and Baltimore's secondary is the worst it's ever been. On the flip side, the Ravens offense is better than it's ever been. Flacco, Rice and Boldin (and a somehow resurgent Heap) will find a way to score three-plus TDs in this game.

 

That's about as easy as it gets in pro football wagering. If it doesn't pan out, I don't know how I could ever justify betting on NFL games.

Edited September 19, 2010 by Swiss Cheezhead

[1stand10]

Panthers -3

Titans -5

Patriots -3

Texans -3

Colts -5

Saints -6

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

If anyone's able to bet on the over/under of 40 on the Bengals-Ravens game, you should JUMP on the over. I see 35-27 or something close to that.

 

Even before TO/Gresham/Benson, Palmer was able to score on the Ravens. Now, they have those guys and Baltimore's secondary is the worst it's ever been. On the flip side, the Ravens offense is better than it's ever been. Flacco, Rice and Boldin (and a somehow resurgent Heap) will find a way to score three-plus TDs in this game.

 

That's about as easy as it gets in pro football wagering. If it doesn't pan out, I don't know how I could ever justify betting on NFL games.

 

 

6 points at half time

[Swiss Cheezhead]

If anyone's able to bet on the over/under of 40 on the Bengals-Ravens game, you should JUMP on the over. I see 35-27 or something close to that.

 

Even before TO/Gresham/Benson, Palmer was able to score on the Ravens. Now, they have those guys and Baltimore's secondary is the worst it's ever been. On the flip side, the Ravens offense is better than it's ever been. Flacco, Rice and Boldin (and a somehow resurgent Heap) will find a way to score three-plus TDs in this game.

 

That's about as easy as it gets in pro football wagering. If it doesn't pan out, I don't know how I could ever justify betting on NFL games.

 

[Bronco Billy]

Bronco not all systems are for suckers ,, system is a broad term.

 

Yes, all systems are for suckers. If a system actually worked with consistency, Las Vegas/bookies would be out of business, wouldn't it/they? It's like the informercials about how to get fabulously rich for only $19.95 for a book. If the guy selling the book could actually get that rich, why the hell would he be pedaling that type of trash?

 

The only way to stay ahead is by the gathering of information and then using that information to make educated decisions on a case-by-case basis, and to be conservative. You're playing against a vast group of people whose whole career is dedicated to gathering information and statistics, and applying that in a knowledgable way.

[Gopher]

I thought about giving you ridicule for this, but I'm about as bad as can be, at this wagering thing.

 

So, I figured I would just beat you in Redraft Wars, instead.