rattsass Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 First of all let me say up front that gambling is a fools paradise. I have probably lost a lot more than I have won if I had kept a ledger. Gambling like anything else requires you to make every mistake possible to learn every pitfall. And secondly, I realize that posting this tale of success in a public forum is possibly the dumbest thing I could possibly do, karma-wise. But it is just so amazing, I am in unchartered waters as to what to expect next, except for the inevitible loss that I know must come someday. I have visited a certain casino 12 times this year. I play blackjack, and I must say I play it well. I'm not a counter. I'm just a diciplined "by the book" player. And I vary my bets. I have pretty good intuition, just like with my fantasy predictions. (shameless plug) Over the course of these 12 visits I have won each and every time. Not huge amounts. Nothing over 4 benji's. Mostly 2. In fact I have on average been a winner at this casino a large percentage of the times I have gone there. Though there are notably a couple of catastrophic trips mixed in as well. Times where "the comeback" just didn't come, and I got blasted. But the fact is I have won more money at this casino than I have lost. On my 10th trip the pit boss gave me the staredown for about 15 minutes. Intimidation I thought. I was ahead. I left. On my 12th visit, bad losing streak followed by the glorious comeback. This time there was a security guy across the aisle seemingly eyeballing me pretty hard. This streak has had many different faces. It has been 30 minutes of good luck and gone. Or it has been several hours of bad luck/followed by a glorious run where I get all my money back and some of theirs in a flash. But always, always out the door a winner. My question is, should I be nervous about the cow I am milking? Is there a chance they are going to decide I'm just not worth it and show me the door? I generally treat the staff wonderfully, sharing my bounty with them in the form of tips. Granted, they may have to suffer through some inpromptu cussing on my part when I get big kahuna's and lose a split double-down $50 bet, but I spread it around. Of course, that means nothing to the big chief upstairs who is still trying to figure out how this paleface keeps taking his wampum. Should I stay away for awhile? I really hate to being how it has been one of my main forms of income over the last 3 months and all, but I just wonder if they are going to hook me. Anybody had a streak like this at a certain place? Anybody ever known someone that got kicked out just because they won? This is really freaking me out. I mean I always expect to win, it just never happened 12 times in a freaking row. Is there any chance I didn't just blow the thing up over the last few minutes? Does this mean 2012 is real? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twiley Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Only time they ask you to leave is: 1) Too drunk to sign your name 2) So drunk you attempt to feel up the dealer (male or female) 3) Try to urinate while still in your seat because you're too drunk to know where you are. 4) Offer yourself up as collateral on a double down and slap your dong on the table. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneymakers Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 They be letten you win. If they want you to lose . you will dont worry about it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delusions of grandeur Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 There is a reason why high-rollers always get their rooms comped just as often as people who spend alot in the casinos do. If you play with them long enough, you will inevitably lose it back. The odds are simply stacked in their favor, no matter how good you are or what streak you're on... Though of course, you can beat them at their own game by quitting while you're ahead... However, cheating on the other hand, even counting cards which is technically legal, will at best case get you thrown out in a heartbeat. My brother and I have gone on plenty of tears that got us eyed, but they're just trying to make sure it's legit, just the same as when you hit a big hand that they'll have the cameras check out (my bro had one of these where he hit $2,000 on a royal flush in Mississippi Stud on just a $20-25 bet ). Especially if you're playing by the book, then you don't even have to think about them showing you the door. Exactly the opposite. Where they get suspicious is when you don't play by the book and make irrational hits that seem fishy... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted April 4, 2011 Author Share Posted April 4, 2011 There is a reason why high-rollers always get their rooms comped just as often as people who spend alot in the casinos do. If you play with them long enough, you will inevitably lose it back. The odds are simply stacked in their favor, no matter how good you are or what streak you're on... Though of course, you can beat them at their own game by quitting while you're ahead... See. this is the key. And this is one part of the game I have mastered. I read a book (several times over) I have probably mentioned before here but bears worth repeating. Lyle Stuart, winning at casino gambling. It was instrumental in teaching me to focus on that fact. He noted in his book that his wife had some ridiculous streak like that going on trips to Vegas, and it finally occurred to him to ask her how she did it. The answer was simple. I quit when I am ahead. It as her contention that in almost every game of chance (where the odds are not overwhelmingly against you) you will be ahead at some point. That is when you leave. That book was worth 1000 times what I paid for it, probably my best investment ever. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delusions of grandeur Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 (edited) See. this is the key. And this is one part of the game I have mastered. I read a book (several times over) I have probably mentioned before here but bears worth repeating. Lyle Stuart, winning at casino gambling. It was instrumental in teaching me to focus on that fact. He noted in his book that his wife had some ridiculous streak like that going on trips to Vegas, and it finally occurred to him to ask her how she did it. The answer was simple. I quit when I am ahead. It as her contention that in almost every game of chance (where the odds are not overwhelmingly against you) you will be ahead at some point. That is when you leave. That book was worth 1000 times what I paid for it, probably my best investment ever. Yes, far too often, especially at the craps tables, I see people go way up just to fall into another gambler's fallacy: greed. BTW, didn't mean to diminish your accomplishment before, that is truly impressive to be consistently walking away with cash. Though maybe your varied bets are what is calling attention to you . Do you just play by gut? I do that sometimes, especially when I feel like a cold deck is "due", but if your goal is to not end up losing alot of money, then I prefer using a progressive betting system where you're basically betting on the streakiness of the game. If you're not familiar with this, you do it on a scale similar to this - 10,20, 30, 50 - increasing with each hand you win. When you lose, you go back down to your minimum, 10 in this example. You can continue to increase that as far as you want, but at a certain point I don't care that the law of independent trials says that every hand has equal odds with decks that big. You can only win so many times before you lose, and that's why I usually put a cap after about 4 hands of increased bets, to balance out the risk of continuing to push it. A poor man's alternative when you don't have a big bankroll is a scale of 10, 15, 20, 25. Not to say that these are the best ways, but along with playing by the book, always sticking with the same choice for questionable calls in every instance, and walking away from a cold table, I at very least break even at the blackjack tables most of the time, if not make a few hundred. Very curious about how you've managed the varied bets to work that well for you, if it's something you don't mind sharing. Edited April 4, 2011 by delusions of granduer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted April 4, 2011 Author Share Posted April 4, 2011 Very curious about how you've managed the varied bets to work that well for you, if it's something you don't mind sharing. Those doubling systems are not a part of my scheme at all. I have had some success using those techniques at the craps table, but I am convinced there is no system in the world that can overcome the house odds. I don't play that way at all. I have no set system of wager incriments. What I do now is based on hours and years of play. If you watch a movie enough times, you can do the dialogue right along with the characters. I have seen just about every situation possible play out at the gaming tables and it is the collective knowledge of "how things go" that guides me. I watch the cards. Like I said, I am not a card counter. But if the face cards have been slim (even in multi-deck shoes) odds are a spate of them are coming, and vise versa. I like to sit at first base, so these observations are more relevent than if I sat on the other side of the dealer. Basically I like to play at the $10 table, or even the $5 table if I can find one not chock full of idiots. I like to be able to bring my bets way down when things are going badly. Ride out the cold streaks with table minimums and put the hammer down when I feel it turning. But a bad $25 table can eat you alive before your lucky streak ever comes. It is a rare occasion when I would want to bet $100 or more anyway. so a $10 table works fine for me. Another important component is being in control of the situation. I LOVE to sit down at a table by myself. Just me and the dealer. If things are going badly I play two hands for one deal to change the flow of the cards. My best times at blackjack table have come when it is just me, or maybe one other good player. When the clowns show up, it is time to leave. It is hard to win at a table full of clowns. It might be fun, but its hard to win. I never make a bet I am not willing to double down on, or split if necessary. You have to hit those to win, and if you pass on a double-downs it is basically impossible to win. I also usually go to the casino alone. Most people view the casino as a place to be entertained, but I am there for one reason only. When you are with a group, you leave the casino when the goup decides to. When I am alone, I leave when I have some of the casino's money. 11 of my winning trips were solo's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 See. this is the key. And this is one part of the game I have mastered. I read a book (several times over) I have probably mentioned before here but bears worth repeating. Lyle Stuart, winning at casino gambling. It was instrumental in teaching me to focus on that fact. He noted in his book that his wife had some ridiculous streak like that going on trips to Vegas, and it finally occurred to him to ask her how she did it. The answer was simple. I quit when I am ahead. It as her contention that in almost every game of chance (where the odds are not overwhelmingly against you) you will be ahead at some point. That is when you leave. That book was worth 1000 times what I paid for it, probably my best investment ever. they want you to stay and keep winning...if you stop going then they lose out... if you keep going there, they will win in the longrun... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted April 4, 2011 Author Share Posted April 4, 2011 they want you to stay and keep winning...if you stop going then they lose out... if you keep going there, they will win in the longrun... Like I said, gambling is a fools paradise... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Like I said, gambling is a fools paradise... I go once in awhile with money I am willing to lose in order to potentially gain more coupled with the fact that I like playing.... but I mean I go like once or twice a year and wish I could go more Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunday Couch Potatoe Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 (edited) Unless you are taking huge sums from them alot more frequently than that you are small fries to them. Go enjoy yourself and walk out with your 2 bills and a smile every time cause they arent watching or worried about anyone taking small amounts from them. They make that in a second right back from some other shmo... Edited April 4, 2011 by Sunday Couch Potatoe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tford Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 If you are counting cards, they WILL catch you. Been thrown out of a casino once for it. Of course, I was only 19 and in hindsight, I wasn't doing a good job of hiding what I was doing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbpfan1231 Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Those doubling systems are not a part of my scheme at all. I have had some success using those techniques at the craps table, but I am convinced there is no system in the world that can overcome the house odds. I don't play that way at all. I have no set system of wager incriments. What I do now is based on hours and years of play. If you watch a movie enough times, you can do the dialogue right along with the characters. I have seen just about every situation possible play out at the gaming tables and it is the collective knowledge of "how things go" that guides me. I watch the cards. Like I said, I am not a card counter. But if the face cards have been slim (even in multi-deck shoes) odds are a spate of them are coming, and vise versa. I like to sit at first base, so these observations are more relevent than if I sat on the other side of the dealer. Basically I like to play at the $10 table, or even the $5 table if I can find one not chock full of idiots. I like to be able to bring my bets way down when things are going badly. Ride out the cold streaks with table minimums and put the hammer down when I feel it turning. But a bad $25 table can eat you alive before your lucky streak ever comes. It is a rare occasion when I would want to bet $100 or more anyway. so a $10 table works fine for me. Another important component is being in control of the situation. I LOVE to sit down at a table by myself. Just me and the dealer. If things are going badly I play two hands for one deal to change the flow of the cards. My best times at blackjack table have come when it is just me, or maybe one other good player. When the clowns show up, it is time to leave. It is hard to win at a table full of clowns. It might be fun, but its hard to win. I never make a bet I am not willing to double down on, or split if necessary. You have to hit those to win, and if you pass on a double-downs it is basically impossible to win. I also usually go to the casino alone. Most people view the casino as a place to be entertained, but I am there for one reason only. When you are with a group, you leave the casino when the goup decides to. When I am alone, I leave when I have some of the casino's money. 11 of my winning trips were solo's. I am a firm believer that it is YOU against the dealer. The other people at your table do not matter. I say that in the "long run" - of course someone can screw you out of that 7 you needed but that same person could also have taken the 9 that would have busted you. I have had some good long discussions with some people I work with that play Blackjack often and they are convinced your odds go down if there is a bad player playing at your table. I have yet to find some website to prove it one way or the other but I tend to think in the long run it does not really matter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chester Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 I am a firm believer that it is YOU against the dealer. The other people at your table do not matter. I say that in the "long run" - of course someone can screw you out of that 7 you needed but that same person could also have taken the 9 that would have busted you. I have had some good long discussions with some people I work with that play Blackjack often and they are convinced your odds go down if there is a bad player playing at your table. I have yet to find some website to prove it one way or the other but I tend to think in the long run it does not really matter. +1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted April 4, 2011 Author Share Posted April 4, 2011 +1 It's simple mathematics on some level though. It is much easier to foretell a spate of tens, and in theory benefit from them if there are fewer cards dealt in each hand. If I think I am "reading" the deck it seems to work best when there are fewer variables, ie. Delbert hitting on a 15 with a dealer six showing, and taking the dealers bust card I just knew was coming. Delbert loses his $5 and I lose my $50 double down. Me no like. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WashingtonD Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Unless you are maintaining an accurate count and taking into consideration deck penetration thinking about whether a set of high cards are coming based on recent hands is more likely to get you in trouble in the long and short run than provide any real benefit (this assumes a multideck shoe) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rocknrobn26 Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 I am a firm believer that it is YOU against the dealer. The other people at your table do not matter. I say that in the "long run" - of course someone can screw you out of that 7 you needed but that same person could also have taken the 9 that would have busted you. I have had some good long discussions with some people I work with that play Blackjack often and they are convinced your odds go down if there is a bad player playing at your table. I have yet to find some website to prove it one way or the other but I tend to think in the long run it does not really matter. I've been saying that for years w/ few if anyone agreeing w/ me. We only see the hands that the hunyuk screws up and not usually the ones that we benefit from. Plus a real bad player won't last long anyway. I prefer 3rd base and try to keep a running count of 10's and Aces, but nothing too accurate. I also prefer 1 & 2 deck games where counting is futile as the cards are re-shuffled after 2-3 hands. RA, As far as the boss is concerned, I wouldn't worry. Not sure of the stakes you are playing, but unless you've got $100+ bets up constantly, and are playing suspiciously they aren't gonna throw you out. I had a good run (5 day stay @ the Hilton in Vegas) and the last 2 nites the boss was trying to distract me. You know, hanging next to me, making small talk, etc.. Not sure why, but maybe they just get bored and want to entertain themselves. The only time in my long history of Black Jack playing the only guy I ever saw get thrown out was a guy at another table (very drunk and losing) who dumped his Screwdriver into the shoe! This was pre-1980 when the "Boys" still ran things. Needless to say within a microsecond 4 very large guys picked him up by the elbows and legs an escorted him out immediately. Rumor had it that it was head first to open the door ala "Casino" style. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 (edited) I vary my bets. I have pretty good intuition. re: you have been very lucky. They aren't going to ask you to go anywhere. In fact, they are anxious for you to keep playing, because they know in the long run they will win, and you appear to be on the verge of really starting to like gambling...to a fault. If you toss a coin 1000 times, there will be points during the stretch where 12 heads will come in a row, and 12 tails will come in a row. Enjoy the fact you got 12 winners in a row....your 12 losers are right around the corner. its simple probability, and its on their side. ETA: to your point about 'always being ahead at some point in the night"...this is very accurate. The best gambling book I read told me that, to be a disciplined gambler and to win more than you lose: quit when you are up 10%, or down 20% of what you started with. Most will say "whats the fun in that? if my bankroll is $200, you want me to quit when I am up $20, or down just $40?". The answer is yes. Build that bankroll, and get to the point where you are playing higher stakes tables, and continue to follow that golden rule throughout. It takes a supreme amount of discipline, but the percentages were astounding of those who won and won long-term following those guidelines. Edited April 4, 2011 by i_am_the_swammi Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tford Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Typical House Edges for casino play (assuming by-the-book play in all cases) 0% - Single Deck Blackjack 0.5% - Six-Deck Blackjack 0.6% - Craps (Pass/Come w/ full odds only) << Any inside bet is a sucker's bet anyways; the field and any inside bets range from 2.5% to 20% HE 0.5 - 3% - Video Poker 1.2% - Baccarat (no tie bet) 1.4% - Craps (Pass/come w/ no odds) 2.7% - Single Zero Roulette 2.5% - Pai Gow Poker 3.5% - Let It Ride 3.4% - Three Card Poker 5.2% - Caribbean Stud 5.3% - Double Zero Roulette 5 - 10% - Most Slot Machines 20% - Wheel of Fortune 30% - Keno How certain Blackjacks rules affect house edge (% House Edge reduced) -1.5% - Typical card-counting strategy -0.2% - Dealer stands on soft seventeen -0.14% - Doubling after splitting -0.06% - Late Surrender -0.24% - Early Surrender The long and short of it is that without any special deals or promotions and without cheating, every game is designed for you to lose mathematically. Blackjack is just typically harder to lose at than most games. That said, it doesn't matter what game to play, eventually if you play enough, you will head back to the mean. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 I am a firm believer that it is YOU against the dealer. The other people at your table do not matter. I say that in the "long run" - of course someone can screw you out of that 7 you needed but that same person could also have taken the 9 that would have busted you. I have had some good long discussions with some people I work with that play Blackjack often and they are convinced your odds go down if there is a bad player playing at your table. I have yet to find some website to prove it one way or the other but I tend to think in the long run it does not really matter. This is a mathematical fact. Because the cards are random, what someone does with their hand has no bearing on your hand, from a purely theoretical/mathematical standpoint. Their decisions only affect their odds. Now, as you said, psychologically, you are going to remember those times where someone plays incorrectly and takes the dealers bust card when they were in a clear stand situation, and you are less likely to remember the times where that same person takes the card that would have given the dealer a 21 but instead he got a bust card. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MojoMan Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 I don't think that walking away with 2 bills is gonna raise any eyebrows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted April 4, 2011 Author Share Posted April 4, 2011 re: you have been very lucky. They aren't going to ask you to go anywhere. In fact, they are anxious for you to keep playing, because they know in the long run they will win, and you appear to be on the verge of really starting to like gambling...to a fault. Actually I don't. I treat it just any of my other jobs. Like I said, I'm not there for the thrill of playing. I got over that a long time ago. I am perfectly content to win some money and leave. I mean there are moments of comraderie at the tables. And the cast of characters one encounters is always enlightening. Trust me, I have really liked gambling for a long time. But winning does have a way of pulling you back. Yes, I have been very lucky. I won't be lucky forever. When I am on I am teflon. But when I am off I am doggie doo-doo. Always been streaky but never a run like this, good or bad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 (edited) Actually I don't. I phrased that a little wrong. I meant to that, in their eyes, you are on the verge of liking it a whole lot...hence why they would never ask you to go anywhere. That was the context in which I meant that thought. Typically, when a gambler is on a run, they feel invincible....and will gamble more then whey are down because they feel they can beat the system and get it all back. They definitely want you to stay an lose it all back. Edited April 5, 2011 by i_am_the_swammi Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 I am a firm believer that it is YOU against the dealer. The other people at your table do not matter. I say that in the "long run" - of course someone can screw you out of that 7 you needed but that same person could also have taken the 9 that would have busted you. I have had some good long discussions with some people I work with that play Blackjack often and they are convinced your odds go down if there is a bad player playing at your table. I have yet to find some website to prove it one way or the other but I tend to think in the long run it does not really matter. I have always found that what the other people have does matter because I try to keep an eye on whether or not there have been a lot of low or high cards even though there are 4 decks mixed in, I believe...I try to keep track of the last 4 hands and what has been coming out so I can potentially increase the odds of getting a card I may be looking for.... but I usually sit at the end, so I also use this to try and hopefully screw the dealer into a bust... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 I don't think that walking away with 2 bills is gonna raise any eyebrows. 2 bills is a poop in the bucket to them... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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