Papajohn Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 I am a little bored and there isn't a lot of activity on this board in the off season so I'll make a thread about my first draft of the season, even though it will probably bore a lot of you. Last night I had my first draft of the season. The league is a 10 man league filled with what I would call "your average fantasy owner". Nobody is a genius but then again nobody is a complete idiot either (myself included). This isn't one of my main leagues and I barely know any of the others owner, and I only participated because I was asked to fill in for another owner who jumped ship very close to the draft. I therefore decided to view this more as a mock draft than a real draft and use it as preparation for my main leagues. (I will of course be an active owner during the entire season, I still want to win and I am not a complete jackass) Therefore I decided the following: I would try to draft as close as possible to theHuddle's ranking of players for that setting, with a few exceptions: 1.a.) I wouldn't draft AJ Green early, because I wanted to see where the average fantasy owner would pick him 1. I removed Sanchez, Tebow, Greene and Holmes from my board. I don't want anything to do with that circus. Later it came back to bite me. Setting: 10 man league. 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE,1 RB/WR/TE, 1 K, ! DEF All TDs 6 point Interception: -2 point Fumble - 2 point 1 point pr 10 yards rushing and receiving 1 point pr. 25 yards passing. No PPR A few lessons from the draft: 1) Nobody wanted Santonio Holmes. He went in the 12th (!!!) round with the 112th pick. If I hadn't removed him from my board, even I would have picked him up way earlier then that. Let that be a lesson to me and everybody else, who decides to remove players completely from their boards. 2) Andre Johnson is still a highly valued player. He went in the second round (2.18) as the third WR in a no PPR league. Welker was fourth at (3.21). 3) A.J. Green might be a hidden gem in a league like that, and Brandon Marshall might be overrated. AJ went in the fourth round as the 10th WR (4.34), two picks after Brandon Marshall (4.33). 4) Cam Newton went in the first round (1.10), which I didn't expect since all TDs are 6 point, making his rushing scorees less valuable. 5) Another surprise was Fred Jackson at (3.23). I don't doubt Fred Jackson but C.J Spiller is going to get his shares of carries this year (IMO). All in all it was very good practices and since the level of fantasy knowledge was equal or close to equal compared to my own leagues. Feel free to leave a comment (if anybody actually has read this). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevegrab Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 I'm curious how many use 3.21 (3rd round, overall pick# 21) vs 3.1 (3rd 1st pick) type notations. I know that with league size you can easily convert one to the other, just curious how most do it. I thought 3.1 was more common, but can see the benefit of the other as it shows the overall pick#. Interesting draft otherwise, and I agree with your point about totally scratcing guys off your list being a potential big mistake as that player falls in the draft. As far as Cam Newton, it is simply a function of him scoring a ton of points. I play in a league that has all TDs as 6 points and Cam was a stud in that league, you don't need the "rushing TD bonus" to make that happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 I don't understand. If Marshall outperforms Green, how is Green a gem and Marshall overrated if they are getiing selected 2 picks apart? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bier Meister Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 are your league-mates primarily pats fans as well? region and team allegiance can impact draft trends. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Papajohn Posted July 16, 2012 Author Share Posted July 16, 2012 I don't understand. If Marshall outperforms Green, how is Green a gem and Marshall overrated if they are getiing selected 2 picks apart? I should probably have written this. I have considered theHuddle rankings as the holy grail in my "analysis", and compared where the players were actually drafted to that ranking. I know that theHuddle's ranking isn't the ultimate truth, but at least all of us have some common ground in the analysis. My point was simply that compared to theHuddle ranking A.J. Green is a steal and Brandon Marshall is a reach. I am personally high on both guys but would consider A.J. Green as an absolute steal at 4.34 whereas I would expect Brandon Marshall to be drafted around that spot in lots of leagues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Papajohn Posted July 16, 2012 Author Share Posted July 16, 2012 are your league-mates primarily pats fans as well? region and team allegiance can impact draft trends. Not what I know of. As I said I don't really know a lot of them but I would describe them as owners, that have played for so long, that nobody drafts a kicker in the 8th round Some of them had for sure done some research before the draft. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flemingd Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 I'm curious how many use 3.21 (3rd round, overall pick# 21) vs 3.1 (3rd 1st pick) type notations. I know that with league size you can easily convert one to the other, just curious how most do it. I thought 3.1 was more common, but can see the benefit of the other as it shows the overall pick#. I have never seen it, but I'm guessing since it's a 10 man he is calling specific attention to it since the overwhelming conversations around here are 12 man and that assumption would likely get applied to the thread. I do kinda like it too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Papajohn Posted July 16, 2012 Author Share Posted July 16, 2012 I have never seen it, but I'm guessing since it's a 10 man he is calling specific attention to it since the overwhelming conversations around here are 12 man and that assumption would likely get applied to the thread. I do kinda like it too. It is not something I had given a lot of thought, but I have always done it that way. Maybe it is because I mostly play en 10-man leagues, where the draft pick in each round is equal to the last number in the overall pick number. Maybe i am just bad at math, and otherwise have no idea what overall number each player were drafted Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 Just out of curiosity, by what percent is Green being projected to outperform Marshall? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 Thanks for the PM, GB. That difference is stunning to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajh2 Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 QBs are the most vauable players in the league. Rogers' 45 TDs = 270points. Therefore, Cam being drafted in the first round not a shock. QBs should have been the first player taken by all players as the QB position will have all the top ranking/ value slots. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Papajohn Posted July 16, 2012 Author Share Posted July 16, 2012 QBs are the most vauable players in the league. Rogers' 45 TDs = 270points. Therefore, Cam being drafted in the first round not a shock. QBs should have been the first player taken by all players as the QB position will have all the top ranking/ value slots. No Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajh2 Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 This is a modified Yahoo League setting were the 3rd WR is now a flex position (WR/RB/TE) and the yardage has been lowered (increasing points) while the -2 for a interception has been maintained. In order for all poistions to be realatively equal, passing yards would ahve to equal 50 yards per 1 point which is the original Yahoo League settings for scoring (rushing and receiving were 25 yards for a point). This is a Stud QB league. I can not find the article on Rotowire talking about league settings about this particular setting adjustment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fitzkek Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 No What do you mean "no"? I play in a similar type league and a stud qb is an absolute must. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bushwacked Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 QBs are the most vauable players in the league. Rogers' 45 TDs = 270points. Therefore, Cam being drafted in the first round not a shock. QBs should have been the first player taken by all players as the QB position will have all the top ranking/ value slots. Total points isn't that good of an indicator of value unless it's specific to position. Hypothetical speaking, if there are only 3 Tier 1 RBs at the end of the year with similar high end value relative to 8 Tier 1 QBs; the RBs are more valuable even if they are significantly outscored by the 8 QBs (in addition, this is precisely why 6 point passing TDs don't really effect QB value). Think of it this way; back in the TD scoring only days..FG kickers generally scored the most points...but no-one took them early because their positional quality made them a reach, Granted, I think upper tier QBs over the last few years have become more valuable for the exact rationale touched upon above. But there is still generally some good value later in the draft easier that's easier to find then the RB positions. In the high stakes league we participated in last year, the first QB was not often drafted until the 3rd round and I expect that to be similar this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Papajohn Posted July 17, 2012 Author Share Posted July 17, 2012 What do you mean "no"? I play in a similar type league and a stud qb is an absolute must. You can discuss when you should take the stud QBs, but to suggest that everybody should take a QB in the first round because they score the most point is just flat out wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Given the amount of internet space given to the concept and implementation of the principle of value, it is nothing short of amazing that there are still veteran FFers completely oblivious to it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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