A Case for Matt Ryan, Early?

[notamomo]

I'm thinking that Matt Ryan is the closest thing to a stud QB I'll get this year. Is he worth a high pick?

 

Yes, I've the other QB early thread(s), but I'm looking for some advice on Ryan. Is he in Stafford/breakout territory? Or is he in the Romo/shaky tier? I'm leaning toward breakout and grabbing him in the 2nd round. Other than Eli, the rest of the QBs after the top 5 ain't looking too good to me this year.

 

Seems like Ryan's ceiling is very high, but what's his floor this year? Too low for a 2nd round pick?

 

FWIW- I pick #3 and likely getting McCoy there. QB's are always picked early in my local, QD heavy league. Rogers, Brady, Brees, Stafford( and most probably Cam) will be gone by the time I pick in the second. I love Ryan's upside this year, but I'm always the guy who waits on QBs. But I think this year may be different. Pick 1 is an ATL homer and will likely grab Ryan on the turn.

[lkirc]

I think you need to be careful. Moving Ryan up to the second round is quite a leap. You are basically reacting to a positiion run by taking the first guy at a lower tier. If you are the guy who usually waits on QB and have had success doing it, don't let the other owners in your league taking QBs too early affect your strategy. This is a good year to wait on QB if you don't get one of those top 5.

 

Ryan may be a little bit better than Eli, Rivers, Vick, Peyton, and whoever else you throw in that group, but not enough to warrant taking him 5 rounds earlier.

[MnLefty]

I find myself getting swept up in the Ryan talk as well sometimes... I mean look at the weapons he's got in Roddy and Julio, Gonzo is still going and I like Douglas quite a bit and I think Rodgers could be Sproles like if given the opportunity. But then logic sets in and brings me back to the one difference between ATL and GB, NE, NO, and DET... Michael Turner. Say what you want about him being on the downswing, but he's still been effective enough that ATL will have more of a running game than the rest of them. When you factor in more runs, a little more clock control, and most likely more rushing TD's than the others I just don't see Ryan putting up the obscene #'s those other guys did. (FWIW I don't see all of them doing it again either... somebody probably will, but not all of them.) I see Ryan adding some yardage to his 41xx from last year... approaching 4500 maybe, and possibly a few more TD's, but probably not more than 32-34 (29 last year).

 

I do like the guy, and he's on my radar of QB's if I wait, but I just can't see them abandoning the run enough to put up numbers comparable to the spread type teams and superstud QB's. 2nd rd is too early for me. I'm looking at 6th if he's there, I could probably go as early as 4th if I was confident he'd max out my projections.

 

If you were really leaning towards Ryan in the 2nd, I'd say just go ahead and take Rodgers @ 3...

[detlef]

I like Ryan a lot, but with the "do you reach for you guy" thread in mind, he's one of those guys that I do like but is going to have to be there close to where I'm ready.

 

Here's why: A guy like Romo, whom you called "shaky" but puts up nice numbers. And Eli, who never seems to get any run. Rivers, who threw for 4500 yds and 27 TDs and yet inspired a thread about whether or not he'll "bounce back". Hell, Big Ben who now going to have Wallace back and an emerging guy in A Brown.

 

Hell, Vick is going cheap enough that you can gather a nice core of RB and WR, swing for the fences with him and just make a point of coming back in a few rounds and grabbing someone good enough that you're not totally screwed when he gets hurt again.

 

Do I like Ryan over all of these guys? Absolutely. Enough to reach just a little? Sure. I like him that much. But that's a big enough batch of guys that I can fall back on if someone else likes him even more and enough to take him off the board by pick 30 or so.

Edited August 24, 2012 by detlef

[Bronco Billy]

Agree with det here. He's a 3rd tier QB and there's a few guys who seem to fit into that category, even though he seems tO be neat the top of that tier.

[detlef]

All that said, I was seriously thinking of reaching for him with one of my 3/4 swing picks (12th out of 12) in a BOTH league that's going on right now and dude in the 1 hole took him at 2/3. Earliest I've seen him go.

[Azazello1313]

he was the 8th best FF QB last year. probably be about the same this year. no way is that second round value.

[notamomo]

All good info here. I'm digging the 3rd pick and really like McCoy on my roster. But I'm hating the QB options in rounds 4/5 or later. "Stealing" Vick in 5th or even 6th, still means Vick is my starting QB. I like the WR depth this year, so I'm waiting on WR. I like the RB upside guys like Doug Martin and Kevin Smith later in the draft. Just hating the later QB options. Like I said, I've always waited on QBs and I've been very successful. But not so much last year. (still made the playoffs, but not the SB for the first time in 6 seasons.) The QB uncertainty is shaking my draft plan confidence, so I'm trying to work it out before tomorrow. Thanks for all the input...

[detlef]

he was the 8th best FF QB last year. probably be about the same this year. no way is that second round value.

 

I don't think that's the case. We saw what Jones was capable of once he got going. 5 of Ryan's 6 20+ pt games came after the bye when Jones was back and mostly healthy. Three of Ryan's 4 games where he put about 12 or less were in the 1st half (and the one in the back half was week 17, not sure if they had their seed wrapped up).

 

So, while I agree that he's not a 2nd round pick for the reasons I gave, I do think he does better this year than you're saying.

 

ETA: missed another low scoring game after the bye.

Edited August 24, 2012 by detlef

[lkirc]

If you want a QB that will make a difference, like and earlier poster said, take Rodgers at #3. With owners taking so many QBs in your league early, you can still get a decent RB1 in the second. You said you are waiting on WR anyway, so I say look at this approach. Sounds like QB,RB, RB, WR, WR may be the best way for you to go.

 

Who do you like better?

 

McCoy/Ryan/Fred Jackson

 

or

 

Rodgers/Sproles/Fred jackson

 

I am assuming 12 team PPR....

[notamomo]

Who do you like better?

 

McCoy/Ryan/Fred Jackson

 

or

 

Rodgers/Sproles/Fred jackson

 

I am assuming 12 team PPR....

 

 

Yes, 12 team PPR. Taking Rogers at 3 is a valid thought. It's been hard for me to deprogram myselft from all the big 3 talk though. And honestly, I dont hate McCoy/Ryan/FJax...

[Pope Flick]

I see Ryan being taken ahead of Rivers in a lot of drafts, and I think Rivers has the better year for sure.

[knuckleballah22]

I love Matt Ryan. I think hes about to have the best season of his career/

[Azazello1313]

I don't think that's the case. We saw what Jones was capable of once he got going. 5 of Ryan's 6 20+ pt games came after the bye when Jones was back and mostly healthy. Three of Ryan's 4 games where he put about 12 or less were in the 1st half (and the one in the back half was week 17, not sure if they had their seed wrapped up).

 

So, while I agree that he's not a 2nd round pick for the reasons I gave, I do think he does better this year than you're saying.

 

ETA: missed another low scoring game after the bye.

 

 

well if he's clearly behind the first 4-5 guys, and he's in a tier with 5 or 6 other guys, 8th among fantasy QBs seems like a pretty middle-of-the-road projection for him.

[Bronco Billy]

I'm seeing Rivers making the same kinds of throws as last year this PS. That and losing VJax moves him down a little from last year.

 

Jones' growth, the emergence of Rodgers, and the committment by coaches in ATL to throw more make me think it's perfectly reasonable and quite likely that Ryan passes Rivers.

 

IMO of course

Edited August 24, 2012 by Bronco Billy

[delusions of grandeur]

Well, I did really like Ryan and Julio before the entire FF community started circle-jerking about them.... Now I'm not as sure....

 

Na seriously, I don't think you can take Ryan before the 4th, 3rd if your league is full of QB whores and you love your first 2 picks. There are so many solid players you'd be passing up to do so, when Ryan might or might not greatly outscore your Eli, Rivers, Romo, etc..

Edited August 24, 2012 by delusions of grandeur

[injendsm]

I see Ryan being taken ahead of Rivers in a lot of drafts, and I think Rivers has the better year for sure.

 

 

Who does he have to throw to besides Gates? Not to mention his o-line is hurting. I think Ryan has a much better year and, in my money league (scoring heavy), he may sneak into the top 5 at year's end. Ryan has better options in the passing game, they'll be passing a ton, and ATL has a very easy schedule for the passing game. I'm probably going to end up taking him in the 2nd but only because I'm so high on him, it's a 2QB league, and the top 5 will be gone before my 2nd pick.

Edited August 24, 2012 by injendsm

[delusions of grandeur]

Who does he have to throw to besides Gates? Not to mention his o-line is hurting. I think Ryan has a much better year and, in my money league (scoring heavy), he may sneak into the top 5 at year's end. Ryan has better options in the passing game, they'll be passing a ton, and ATL has a very easy schedule for the passing game. I'm probably going to end up taking him in the 2nd but only because I'm so high on him, it's a 2QB league, and the top 5 will be gone before my 2nd pick.

 

2QB league is a different story. I'd consider it a victory to get him in the 2nd in that format.

[detlef]

well if he's clearly behind the first 4-5 guys, and he's in a tier with 5 or 6 other guys, 8th among fantasy QBs seems like a pretty middle-of-the-road projection for him.

 

He's only clearly behind the top 4-5 for me becasue, until you've done it, you haven't done it. Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Stafford, Newton have all done it. Ryan hasn't yet. So, that's why I place him at the top of the next tier.

 

That doesn't mean I don't think he can break into the top 5 this year. I actually think he has a decent shot. Meanwhile, all the other guys (Romo, Eli, Rivers, etc) have pretty much shown you what they've got. It would really surpise me to see any of them drop 35 TDs, but not so much Ryan.

 

I don't take him earlier than the others in his tier because I think he's going to go for 4200 and 30. I take him earlier becasue I think, among them, he has the best chance of doing better than that.

[Scorcher]

All that said, I was seriously thinking of reaching for him with one of my 3/4 swing picks (12th out of 12) in a BOTH league that's going on right now and dude in the 1 hole took him at 2/3. Earliest I've seen him go.

 

 

Had 2.12 and 3.1, didn't really think of it as 2nd rd pick, but it was! ! 3.1 might have sounded better. After 25th pick, , don't pic again until 48. I thought he would be gone by then. If I was in a mid position , I would have waited. THinking that 23 more players going before my next pick it didn't seem like that much of a reach. can only wait and see now!

[delusions of grandeur]

Had 2.12 and 3.1, didn't really think of it as 2nd rd pick, but it was! ! 3.1 might have sounded better. After 25th pick, , don't pic again until 48. I thought he would be gone by then. If I was in a mid position , I would have waited. THinking that 23 more players going before my next pick it didn't seem like that much of a reach. can only wait and see now!

 

I could see an argument made there if it was highly unlikely Ryan makes it back around to you at the 4/5 turn, which seems to be becoming less likely by the day.... That's my MO at the turn to try to take one value pick and then "reach" if I have to on another guy I like, knowing I won't pick for a while.

 

In that situation, it's really just a question on what RB/WR/TEs you can land at the 4/5 compared to QBs, and if that tradeoff is worth it over who was available at the 2/3 turn. From my expeirence, there's still some pretty nice talent at that turn before it starts dropping off in the 5th, so that might not be a bad strategy at all if you're a big believer in Ryan.

[Scorcher]

I could see an argument made there if it was highly unlikely Ryan makes it back around to you at the 4/5 turn, which seems to be becoming less likely by the day.... That's my MO at the turn to try to take one value pick and then "reach" if I have to on another guy I like, knowing I won't pick for a while.

 

In that situation, it's really just a question on what RB/WR/TEs you can land at the 4/5 compared to QBs, and if that tradeoff is worth it over who was available at the 2/3 turn. From my expeirence, there's still some pretty nice talent at that turn before it starts dropping off in the 5th, so that might not be a bad strategy at all if you're a big believer in Ryan.

 

 

 

Another thing that influenced me is that Ryan is right next to Newton in rankings. Ryan rated with upside, Newton in question as to running TD's which seems to be the make or break factor in his upcoming season. Newton in the 2nd......no problem! Also every year is a learning process, but by the next season I always seem to forget what I learned!

Edited August 24, 2012 by Scorcher

[kcmast]

Will pick 1 or 2 take a QB in the first? If not, chances are at least one of them will take a QB with their 2nd or 3rd round picks. What is their previous history with drafting QBs early?

Edited August 24, 2012 by kcmast

[Delicious_bass]

I could see an argument made there if it was highly unlikely Ryan makes it back around to you at the 4/5 turn, which seems to be becoming less likely by the day.... That's my MO at the turn to try to take one value pick and then "reach" if I have to on another guy I like, knowing I won't pick for a while.

 

In that situation, it's really just a question on what RB/WR/TEs you can land at the 4/5 compared to QBs, and if that tradeoff is worth it over who was available at the 2/3 turn. From my expeirence, there's still some pretty nice talent at that turn before it starts dropping off in the 5th, so that might not be a bad strategy at all if you're a big believer in Ryan.

 

I drafted last night from the #2. I like Ryan this year enough that I took him at 3.2 (26). His ADP on MFL suggested he may be there for me at the 4.11 (47) and I was very tempted to roll the dice but ultimately afraid he would have been gone before I got another chance at him. So I pulled the trigger when I did. Sometimes that's what happens when you covet a player and you're picking from an end of the order. We'll see if it was worth the reach or not. Part of what also factored in was (as DOG said) the options I felt would be available at rb and wr/te were more attractive to me at the 4/5 turn than at qb. Again, we'll have to wait to see if I was right or not.

[faceplant]

i was in the same position as Delicious_bass but saw Peterson staring me in the face at 3.2 (26). Apparently people were scared of his injury and maybe I'm dumb for taking him but I couldn't pass him up at that point. Luckily Ryan was still there at 4.11 (47). I was drafting on the ESPN board and they don't actually rank him that high on the default settings. They put like 10 QBs in front of him so maybe that helped some.