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Survivor Talk - Week 11


hezagenius
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Who does everyone like this week and who are you taking?

 

Here's my thoughts on a few games.

 

5 games I like (winner on the left)

DEN @ STL (dome)

Probably the power lock of the week although STL will likely put some points up.

 

SD v OAK

SD is coming off a bye and is probably looking to get back on track, but this is a divisional game and SD only won by 3 earlier this year @ OAK. Still, OAK is OAK and they are terrible.

 

PIT @ TEN

As of now, there is a 70% chance of rain, but I like Pitt's ground game better than TEN.

 

NO v CIN (dome)

At home, I like NO. They probably should have won last week but the phantom push off by Graham negated a big TD. I like them to rebound this week. Plus it seems like the wheels have just come off the wagon in Cincy. They were a mess against CLE.

 

GB v PHI

GB's D looked like world beaters last week and Rodgers was playing lights out. I think Mr. Butt Fumble looked good because CAR's D is nowhere near as good as everyone thought. I don't see him having the same kind of success this week. And I don't think GB will turn the ball over like CAR did which should reduce the likelihood of Philly's D getting TDs.)

 

 

Games that seem good on paper but I don't like (although I'd pick the teams on the left if I was forced to)

CHI v MIN

WAS v TB

DET @ AZ

 

Weather is likely going to be an issue on the east coast this weekend so west coast and dome games are probably safer from that standpoint.

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Go with washington

 

I don't have SD or DEN. Have to pick between CHI WAS or PITT. Who would you take? Gut is telling me Chicago. can they really get embarrased 3 games in a row. I like Pitt as well. Losing to the Jets was a shocker but can they lose to the Titans as well?

 

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CHI is at home and only giving 3 points, which is Vegas saying the teams are equal. The Bears are somehow seemingly worse at home then they are on the road. This game is a big avoid IMO.

 

WAS has the biggest spread at -7 but they are pretty damn unreliable. Both WAS and TB have bad defenses and some explosive players on offense, which make the game hard to call. WAS is also another team that doesn't seem to enjoy much advantage at home.

 

PIT is giving 6 points on the road. I would take TEN against that spread all day, but I doubt they win. PIT is pretty unreliable as well, but not as bad as WAS. IMO, PIT is the best survivor pick of these three.

 

Teams I prefer to PIT in week 11 survivor: DEN, SD, NO, and CLE (if Foster is out).

Edited by BA Baracus
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I already used DEN, SD, NO, and GB. Went with MIA this week... Was a nail-biter until the 4th quarter, but I sort of figured as much. I thought MIA would win a low-scoring game, thanks to their defense, and it worked out. At the same time, I feel like I dodged a bullet, big-time.

 

My other options would have been (probably in order of confidence):

 

CLE (vs HOU)

SF @NYG

WAS (vs TB)

PIT @ TEN

CHI (vs MIN)

 

As much as MIA and CLE scare(d) me, I don't have much confidence in the others, either. Really try to avoid road teams, and SF and PIT have done nothing of late that makes me think they have better than about a 50% chance of winning this week. In other words, too inconsistent. Same with WAS (I could easily see TB winning that game), and to a slightly lesser degree, I could say the same about MIN.

 

Tough week, especially for those of us who haven't looked ahead (much) up to this point. I've been, for the most part, taking the best option (in my opinion) every single week. I've had a bunch of major scares along the way (GB vs NYJ, NO @ TB, DET vs ATL, etc.), but I'm still alive in both pools (final 2 in one, final 4 in the other). Actually, my pick has trailed in every single week this year, and over half have trailed in the 2nd half and/or trailed by multiple scores. So, yeah, it's been a roller coaster ride. :lol:

 

If, on the other hand, you saved DEN or SD (or even NO or GB) for this week, my hat goes off to you. Should be an interesting weekend, and no offense, but I'll be cheering for all of the underdogs (now that I'm safe for the week). :)

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This week is so close that, for me, it would probably come down to who is inactive/injured. In other words, I was a lot more comfortable taking MIA, knowing that Fred Jackson wasn't playing (and Watkins was less than 100%).

 

Shazier and Polamalu are out (again) this week... I'd stay away from PIT.

 

If Foster doesn't play, CLE would be my next best choice (behind MIA).

 

But, again, even if they're 100% healthy, there are certain teams that I simply wouldn't pick. WAS is not a good football team, other than maybe their D-Line. Chicago just gave up 50+ in a game in which most of their team looked disinterested. Not touching either of those two, regardless of what the point spreads are (don't get too caught up in that... I almost did with WAS, thinking they were one of my top 2-3 choices).

 

Just my opinion, obviously.

 

Edit: Of course, the flipside to all of that is that CLE could have a major letdown game, after the big win against Cincy. Certainly, you can make a case for (or against) pretty much every team. If it's close, though, I tend to take the teams that are playing well and/or have something to play for. CLE and MIA fall into both of those categories, more than any of the others (not including DEN, SD, NO, and GB).

 

SF does as well, I suppose, but I'll take the home team, if forced to choose between two teams in similar situations. Plus, prior to the Saints game, SF wasn't looking all that great, and I think their win can be attributed more to how mediocre the Saints (and the NFC South in general) are, and not necessarily that the Niners are playing great football.

Edited by Gopher
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CHI is at home and only giving 3 points, which is Vegas saying the teams are equal. The Bears are somehow seemingly worse at home then they are on the road. This game is a big avoid IMO.

 

WAS has the biggest spread at -7 but they are pretty damn unreliable. Both WAS and TB have bad defenses and some explosive players on offense, which make the game hard to call. WAS is also another team that doesn't seem to enjoy much advantage at home.

 

PIT is giving 6 points on the road. I would take TEN against that spread all day, but I doubt they win. PIT is pretty unreliable as well, but not as bad as WAS. IMO, PIT is the best survivor pick of these three.

 

Teams I prefer to PIT in week 11 survivor: DEN, SD, NO, and CLE (if Foster is out).

 

Agree with all of the above, although I obviously would include MIA, in addition to CLE. Of course, hindsight is 20/20, right? ;)

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MIA was a good call Goph, but one I wouldn't have made. I try to avoid division games more than road teams.

 

I generally try to avoid both, to a certain degree (but not necessarily one more than the other). Depends on the situation, and in this case, I just felt that the two teams (MIA and BUF) were trending in the opposite directions. Miami has been playing well, even in the games that they've lost (at Detroit, for example), while BUF has seemingly been getting worse (just lost at home to KC). With Jackson out, their offensive strength is really limited (not a fan of Dixon, and Brown is pretty inexperienced still). On top of all of that, it's a game MIA really needed to win, if they want any shot at the playoffs.

 

A lot of those same things could apply to CLE-HOU (trending in opposite directions, a game CLE needs to win, etc.). Honestly, the "tie-breaker" might have simply come down to MIA playing on Thursday, and me not wanting to spend another 3 days second-guessing who I would pick. :lol:

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