muck Posted August 15, 2004 Share Posted August 15, 2004 DMD's article can be found here In looking at DMD's article, I noticed a few things that you may want to note for your upcoming draft: Point #1: Approximately 6 of top ten from the prior year repeated as a top 10 kicking team the next year. 2001, 7 of the top 10 from 2000 repeated... 2002, 7 of the top 10 from 2001 repeated 2003 only 4 of the prior years' top 10 repeated... an average of six repeats. Point #2: The #1 kicking team from the prior year ended up as a mid-20's kicking team the following season! 2001, CAR (the #1 from the prior year) slipped to #25... 2002, STL went to #24... 2003, ATL went to 26... I can't think of a logical reason to explain this, but, I find it interesting enough that I will not be drafting last year's #1 kicker, Jeff Wilkins, this year (unless he drops WAYYYYY too far, which he won't) and instead try to get a different kicker... Point #3: A team in the top 10 two years prior, but not in the top 10 last year has a better chance of re-entering the top 10 than a team outside the top 10 in either the past two seasons. 2002, one of three teams from 2000's top 10 not in 2001's top 10 re-entered 2003, all three teams from 2001's top 10 that were not in 2002's top 10 re-entered Point #4: At least one team that was ranked #18 or lower (the bottom 40% of the league) the previous year ended up in the top 10. 2001, #23 and #30 from 2000 ended up in the top 10 2002, #18 from 2001 ended up in the top 10 2003, #19, #22, #24 and #30 from 2002 ended up in the top 10 That is a total of seven teams "coming out of nowhere" to yield good kicking production. You should note that these teams didn't "come out of nowhere"...the four teams that rose to prominence in 2003 feel an average of 12 spots from 2001 to 2002 (meaning, these four teams on average were 12 spots better in 2001 than they were in 2002). The single team "coming out of nowhere" in 2002 fell one spot from 2001 to 2002 (i.e., they were #17 in 2000, #18 in 2001 and top 10 in 2002). RELATEDLY, the ten teams that were outside the top 10 the year before they were in the top 10 fell an average of six spots from where they were the year before that. Only one team got better in consecutive years, finishing in the top 10 after two consecutive years of improvement. ****************** What does it mean to you? A couple of observations... First, despite talking alot about the importance of a good kicking game, most teams have lackluster production from their kickers. Second, production in the kicking game tends to go at a high level from year to year from organizations that value it highly...and from organizations that have either higher turnover in coaches, personell or in the executive suite, little attention is given to the kicking production until bigger issues are addressed (like, where are we going to get a new middle linebacker)...meaning, that kicking production will be on the back-burner until it becomes a glaring weakness, then the team may go get a solid FA kicker, make a strategic shift in the way they view the kicker, dramatically improve some other part of their team (thus impacting the kicking game, like with an improved defense that keeps the team in closer games where FGs are more important), or something else so that performance tends to go up signficantly in a short period. With that said, you would be well served to draft your kickers from the following four groups (each in alphabetical order...too hard to delineate one from the others)... Plan A: BAL, DEN, GB, IND and PHI (essentially the teams at the bottom of DMD's article, except STL, last years' #1 kicking team) Plan B: CAR, NE, SEA, SF and TEN (the other teams in the top 10 from 2003) Plan C: ATL, KC, NO, OAK, PIT and TB (teams in the top 10 from 2002, but not in the top 10 in 2003) If you're looking for sleepers, look for kicking teams that were somewhat-to-significantly worse last year than they were the year before...because it's possibly an area the coaches decided needed dramatic improvement and put the effort necessary into it to make the "kicking game work". These teams would constitute a "Plan D"...the 'sleepers', if you will...and are teams who's kicking game fell 6 spots or more from 2002 to 2003 (that are not already mentioned above in Plan A, Plan B or Plan C). Note that NYJ and BUF each fell more than 10 spots from 2002 to 2003, and MIA fell 7 spots. Plan D: BUF, MIA and NYJ So, if you concentrate on getting kickers from those teams (in those tiers), you'll probably have a heightened chance of success of getting yourself a top 10 kicker. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargerz Posted August 15, 2004 Share Posted August 15, 2004 Thanks for the info!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skippy Posted August 15, 2004 Share Posted August 15, 2004 Wow, Muck! All this energy on a kicker. The only real thought that I put into a kicker is that I want him to be on a team that I expect to have a decent offense. (more chances) I actually may use some of this data because I know that trends are trends and you put so much effort into it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted August 15, 2004 Author Share Posted August 15, 2004 I have another little theory I'd like to test regarding predicting which kickers will do well ... but, will need to download as many years' data as possible from NFL.com that includes total team rushing yards gained and allowed by the defense, total team passing yards gained and allowed by the defense, total offensive plays and total defensive plays, total FGA, total FGM, total PATA, and total PATM. If some of these things (like total offensive plays and total defensive plays) aren't available, they may not be all that crucial...just a part of my little brainstorm. If anyone has this data (or has time to download the data for me!) for the last several years (at least the last four or five...but the more the merrier!), PLEASE email it to me ... I'll crunch through my little theory, and if there is something to report, I'll put it up for the world to see. I'm relatively optimistic I may have thought of something that will help out in a very wierd world of predicting the scoring success of a kicker ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted August 15, 2004 Author Share Posted August 15, 2004 Note, I just added a "Point #4" and a "Plan D" to the original thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Man Posted August 15, 2004 Share Posted August 15, 2004 Wow, somebody's been busy. Good job and thanks for the info! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Posted August 16, 2004 Share Posted August 16, 2004 Thanks ... and that would put my SDC 32Homer kicker where? Oh ... I thought so. :eek: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redcoltfan Posted August 16, 2004 Share Posted August 16, 2004 AWESOME INFORMATION. THANKS. I usually hate kickers but we gotta have ONE. I am targeting SIX kickers hoping to get ONE: First tier: Vandy, Wilkins, Elam Second tier: Longwell, Akers, Stover I also like Feely. He was great when Vick was healthy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joexx Posted August 16, 2004 Share Posted August 16, 2004 Great info muck! This is the reason why I join year after year. Joexx Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soopanuts Posted August 16, 2004 Share Posted August 16, 2004 Holy sh$t. That's a lot of info on kickers. Now if Wilkins falls to me, I'll have this stuck in my head! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted August 16, 2004 Share Posted August 16, 2004 From one stat geek to another, I applaud your efforts. Lacking any other proven method of predicting kickers, I just copied your top 12 as mine (with a few omissions that 'cause I just couldn't stomach taking those dudes). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted August 16, 2004 Author Share Posted August 16, 2004 From one stat geek to another, I applaud your efforts. Lacking any other proven method of predicting kickers, I just copied your top 12 as mine (with a few omissions that 'cause I just couldn't stomach taking those dudes). 349988[/snapback] Thanks! Note that the four tiers are only in alphabetical order...too hard to really delineate one from the others w/in the tier. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted August 16, 2004 Share Posted August 16, 2004 Thanks! Note that the four tiers are only in alphabetical order...too hard to really delineate one from the others w/in the tier. 350346[/snapback] Honestly, I ranked them within each tier starting with the guy with the latest bye week. Besides not taking guys that play for teams I think will suck, my biggest rule is not to take a guys with an early bye week. I hate to waste two roster spots on kickers unless I know my main guy is worth it. If his bye isn't until mid season, I've got the luxury of either a) dropping him for a guy who's having a good year and already had his bye or knowing which of my sleeper picks has decided to sleep all year and should be dropped for a one week kicker fill-in. Check out my post on Ds, it sort of along the same line as your post on kickers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted August 28, 2004 Author Share Posted August 28, 2004 BUMP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulOttCarruth Posted August 28, 2004 Share Posted August 28, 2004 Nice work, Muck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylive5 Posted August 28, 2004 Share Posted August 28, 2004 (edited) This is some excellent stuff Muck... and just a couple hours before the draft in my long time league too! Thank you, thank you. Reaffirmed some of my own outlook on certain teams so now I at least feel better about my heavily researched cheatsheet on kickers. (K's are big in my league.) Edit: Can't believe I missed this the first time around. Edited August 28, 2004 by skylive5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted January 16, 2005 Author Share Posted January 16, 2005 (edited) Plan A: BAL, DEN, GB, IND and PHI (essentially the teams at the bottom of DMD's article, except STL, last years' #1 kicking team) Plan B: CAR, NE, SEA, SF and TEN (the other teams in the top 10 from 2003) Plan C: ATL, KC, NO, OAK, PIT and TB (teams in the top 10 from 2002, but not in the top 10 in 2003) Plan D (sleepers): BUF, MIA and NYJ Just thought I'd check in with this years' results... Team kicking (3pts / FG and 1pt / PAT): 1. NE ( Plan B ) 2. DEN ( Plan A ) 3. PIT ( Plan C ) 4. PHI ( Plan A ) 4. CIN 6. GB ( Plan A ) 7. IND ( Plan A ) 8. BUF ( Plan D ) 8. BAL ( Plan A ) 10. SD 11. SEA ( Plan B ) 11. KC ( Plan C ) 13. OAK ( Plan C ) 14. NYJ ( Plan D ) 15. NO 15. MIN 17. DET 17. CLE 19. NYG 20. ATL ( Plan C ) 21. ARI 22. JAX 23. DAL 24. WAS 25. STL 26. TEN ( Plan B ) 27. HOU 28. CAR ( Plan B ) 29. MIA ( Plan D ) 30. TB ( Plan C ) 30. SF ( Plan B ) 32. CHI ______________ In sum, not too bad. I told you guys to watch 18 teams for good kickers' performances this past season. While I definately missed the boat on 6 of them (finishing 20th or worse)...however, none of those 6 less-than-stellar picks were in my Plan A...I did get 12 of the 18 teams to watch in the final top 14, including the top 4, and 8 of the top 9... Best picks? Avoid STL (pre-season consensus top 3)...who finished up at #25...and PIT as a bounce back team (finished at #3)...and BUF as a sleeper team (finished at #8)... Edited January 16, 2005 by muck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Furd Posted January 17, 2005 Share Posted January 17, 2005 Ya know muck, you're my man and all, but I can't believe that you spent so much time and effort on ***ing place kickers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted January 17, 2005 Author Share Posted January 17, 2005 So much time? When the difference between a top 10 kicker and a kicker in the next 10 is 2-4pts per game its worth spending at least a few minutes thinking about this isn't it? Especially when nearly no one else is? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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