stethant Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 15 minutes ago, Henry Muto said: What a difference a day makes. Yesterday J Williams round 6, Carter round 6, Sermon round 8 Tonight J Williams round 3, Carter round 4, Sermon round 4 These guys love them some David Montgomery went in round 3 in all 3 drafts so far and 2.02 tonight. Also the industry seems to be a big fan of Mike Davis round 3 in all 3 drafts too. https://www.rtsports.com/football/draft-board.php?LID=253226&UID=fantasyfootball&CONF=0&X=1625703052532 J Williams in round 3 is going to be justified if Gordon gets cut. Otherwise....not sure on that one. Gordon still had 9 TDs last year. I know they drafted up for him but the potential for split work would scare me way off of a round 3 selection. Carter seems similarly speculative. For some reason I like the Trey Sermon take, but round 4 still seems VERY aggressive when the head coach can't commit to one bellcow to save his life. Fortune does favor the bold....and it's very likely everyone in that draft is better at FFL than me....but man the WR value in rounds 3-5 is too tempting to speculate on these particular RBs. Henry how do you see it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry Muto Posted July 8, 2021 Author Share Posted July 8, 2021 19 minutes ago, stethant said: Henry how do you see it? I try to get guys at value so this kind of drafting is not for me. That is the great thing about being in 100 leagues you really don't ever have to reach on a guy unless you really believe he is going to be special and out perform their ADP by a decent amount then you reach. In 2007 I was so convinced Randy Moss would have a comeback year I drafted him in every single league in the 4th round regardless where I sat 4.01 or 4.12 because his ADP was in the mid 5th and I never wanted to lose him I took him in my first 8 drafts of the year I forget how many I had him on but it was something like 80% of my teams. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMD Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 3 hours ago, Henry Muto said: DMD with the 9th pick goes through 6 rounds S Barkley N Harris C Lamb TJ Hockenson K Murray DJ Chark Bit surprised that Barkley fell to #9 and I hesitated but felt I should take it. I took some swings to be sure. It is a 14 team league, so not the same kind of players fall to you every round. As always, just missed a few I really wanted. Ended: QB Kyler Murray QB Trey Lance RB Saquon Barkley RB Najee Harris RB Gus Edwards RB J.D. McKissic RB Rhamondre Stevenson WR CeeDee Lamb WR DJ Chark WR Jaylen Waddle WR T.Y. Hilton WR Darius Slayton TE T.J. Hockenson TE Anthony Firkser PK Butker DEF KC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry Muto Posted July 9, 2021 Author Share Posted July 9, 2021 National started at 4 PM Today - https://www.rtsports.com/football/draft-board.php?LID=253225&UID=fantasyfootball&CONF=0&X=1625863022856 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purplemonster Posted July 10, 2021 Share Posted July 10, 2021 I don't mind Mike Davis in round 3 if nothing changes. But if anyone gets brought on, I hate the pick. I do think he's better than he gets credit for but I don't think he's that good. I reached for both Deandre Swift and Jon Taylor last year and it would have worked out if the rest of my team had held up while they were developing the first 4-5 weeks, but it didn't. I fail to see why anyone would be drafting Curtis Samuel in round 5, that is crazy talk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry Muto Posted July 10, 2021 Author Share Posted July 10, 2021 We hear a lot about the "dead zone" for RB's which is the 3rd - 6th rounds. There are some that believe you just never draft a RB in those rounds unless extreme value falls. What I mean by extreme value is like 18+ ADP picks which is not very common in that part of the draft. This is why Curtis Samuel was a 5th round pick the team that took him are very much avoid dead zone RB guys. Not sure why he was the WR taken there though and not some other WR. There is a site called ship chasers that they and their followers are all avoid RBs for the most part and go nuts at WR's I have been in a draft with these people before and its insanity. I have also watched many and they are insanity when you get a full group of believers and followers of those who believe that. I did 1 of those BB tournament FFPC leagues and drew #1 and it was the worst possible draft to draw the #1 pick as the RBs fell to insane values and by me scooping them all up it killed me at WR like badly and with no waiver wire I am probably cooked because of it. I knew it be bad but it was beyond horrific. Put it to you this way I got Chubb at 3.01, Montgomery at 4.12, Hunt at 7.01, Fournette at 10.12 and David Johnson at 13.01. All great values per say but my WR's ended up being Jefferson, Sutton and Mike Williams as my top 3 with nothing behind them I mean nothing behind them at all. Like complete flyers that barely get drafted it was that insane at WR. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Brown Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 On 7/10/2021 at 10:05 AM, Henry Muto said: We hear a lot about the "dead zone" for RB's which is the 3rd - 6th rounds. There are some that believe you just never draft a RB in those rounds unless extreme value falls. What I mean by extreme value is like 18+ ADP picks which is not very common in that part of the draft. This is why Curtis Samuel was a 5th round pick the team that took him are very much avoid dead zone RB guys. Not sure why he was the WR taken there though and not some other WR. There is a site called ship chasers that they and their followers are all avoid RBs for the most part and go nuts at WR's I have been in a draft with these people before and its insanity. I have also watched many and they are insanity when you get a full group of believers and followers of those who believe that. I did 1 of those BB tournament FFPC leagues and drew #1 and it was the worst possible draft to draw the #1 pick as the RBs fell to insane values and by me scooping them all up it killed me at WR like badly and with no waiver wire I am probably cooked because of it. I knew it be bad but it was beyond horrific. Put it to you this way I got Chubb at 3.01, Montgomery at 4.12, Hunt at 7.01, Fournette at 10.12 and David Johnson at 13.01. All great values per say but my WR's ended up being Jefferson, Sutton and Mike Williams as my top 3 with nothing behind them I mean nothing behind them at all. Like complete flyers that barely get drafted it was that insane at WR. I would like to know who these guys are in case I get in a best ball draft with them. Their approach has some merit. Teams in FFPC that start RB RB aren't killing it with win rates. Not sure how much of that is attributable to lineup rules allowing up to 4 WRs or 1.5 PPR for TEs. The statistical disadvantage for starting RB RB may be non existent in leagues with one flex or TE value that isn't inflated. I wouldn't suscrobe to essentially avoiding all RBs in rounds 3 through 6 though. I certainly see WRs often being better value early in the draft. Early WRs generally have better correlation of value vs ADP than early RBs. At some point value is value and you pull the trigger on it regardless of position. Also, to me the RB landmine may essentially start after the top 2 or 3 RBs this year. I think there are plenty of 'dead zone' RBs in the first and 2nd round. I'm in the middle of my first FFPC best ball and went RB at 1.5 and got my 2nd RB at 6.8. I started with Saquon Barkley but likely would go in a different direction now with the recent news of him maybe not being ready for start of training camp. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry Muto Posted July 13, 2021 Author Share Posted July 13, 2021 Feel free to watch some of their drafts. Ship Chasers are led by Pete and friends while he also has his own channel. They and he do many drafts on there but I have to tell you watching them will warp your mind because none of your drafts will go anything like theirs. These guys are very popular and have a following so when they join a draft their followers join as well so you have like 6-8 guys going nuts at WR while RB's fall to crazy depths. I snuck into 1 of their FFPC drafts but I got slaughtered at WR because I kept taking that RB value that kept dropping. I had the #1 pick and thought what a great draft this was going to be but I hate my team. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCxYSi5ohjZRGG4EbZuMqU-w - Ship Chasers channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCDsGKh5UT53E1wfmzDTIl1w - Pete's channel Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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