Dr. Sacrebleu Posted December 10, 2004 Share Posted December 10, 2004 23-8-1 crisp 18-12-2 sac 18-13-1 sarge 16-15-1 chavez 13-16-3 spain With a handful of games to go, Crisp has made two same bets as his closest competitor, and one same bet as his second closest competitor. The worst he can do is keep a 2 point lead on sarge, or a 2.5 game lead on sacrebleu. Second time in a row crisp has made 2 same bets as me. I'm beginning to think our neutral party who takes my bets is on the take At New England -11 Cincinnati 44 At Buffalo -11.5 Cleveland At Baltimore -10 NY Giants 33 At Green Bay -9.5 Detroit 45 At Minnesota -6 Seattle 51 At Atlanta -8 Oakland 46 At Jacksonville -7 Chicago 34.5 At Dallas -7 New Orleans 46.5 Indianapolis -10 At Houston 57 At Pittsburgh -5.5 NY Jets 36 At Denver -10.5 Miami 38.5 At Carolina -6 St. Louis 44 At Arizona -6.5 San Francisco 37.5 At San Diego -5.5 Tampa Bay 43 Philadelphia -9 At Washington 38 Kansas City At Tennessee Sacrebleu Jax-7 NO+7 NYJ/Pitt over 36 Sd/TB over 43 Chavez: Chi +7 Indianapolis /Houston 57 OVER Carolina /St. Louis 44 OVER Phi -9 sarge: Dallas/NO over 46.5 Minn/Sea over 51 Pitt/NYJ over 36 Indy/ HOU over 57 crisp: bears/jags over 34.5 jets/pittsburgh over 36 carolina -6 new orleans +7 spain: Arizona-6.5 Tampa+5.5 NY Jets+5.5 Jacksonville-7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Sacrebleu Posted December 10, 2004 Author Share Posted December 10, 2004 New orleans continues it's clockwork good game/bad game rythm. They are due for a big one. Especially with the amount of points they have been given against Dallas who because they pulled one out of their ass last week and are thus still in the running are being given way too many points IMO Jets Pittsburgh has only two possible outcomes: The Jets get exposed as an overrated 9-3 team. The Jets are for real, and push Pittsburgh and their rookie QB to the brink. Either one of these outcomes ends up with a bucket of points over 36. And the rest of this league agrees. Jax has been killing me all season, but like the Washington Generals, they are due IMO. And like a man with a gambling problem, you don't want to leave the slot machine that has been stealing all your money, 'cos you've finally warmed it up. SD/TB don't feel great about this one, but no other bet really stood out for me, and trying to avoid making a same bet as Crisp, I went with an esoteric one. Of course it didn't pay off, as he still made two same bets as me. interesting that despite the fact that Indy has been anhilating the spread for weeks now, none of us have gotten on the Indy wagon. I think it's that "if I get on now it will lose" superstition. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiss Cheezhead Posted December 10, 2004 Share Posted December 10, 2004 Hmm...I was going to say I wouldn't touch the over on the PIT/NYJ game (two of the top three scoring defenses in the league), but they've both played quite a few bad offenses. Plus, the injuries to Abraham and Bell should help both QBs have nice games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chavez Posted December 10, 2004 Share Posted December 10, 2004 Chavez: Chi +7 Indianapolis /Houston 57 OVER Carolina /St. Louis 44 OVER Phi -9 602843[/snapback] Dunno about everyone else, but I LOATHED the point spreads this week - it was either inconsistent teams playing each other or just too much lumber to lay. Chi +7 at Jax - Jax hasn't shown much ability to put people away and Chicago's defense manages to keep things close with darn near everybody. I don't think Jax can cover a 7 point spread. Car/St Louis over 44 - Carolina has been red-hot and the Rams haven't shown much propensity to stop anyone, but they still can score. Caronlina's banged-up D sealed the deal on this for me. Indy/Houston over 57 - I thought I'd sworn off Indy and the fat over, but in the absence of anything better to bet on, I took it again. I'm probably going to hate myself come Monday. Phi -9 at Was - big number to cover; still, Philly has the weapons on offense to score some points and I can't help but believe that Washington's burst last week was the aberration, and they'll struggle against Philly's tough D. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chavez Posted December 10, 2004 Share Posted December 10, 2004 interesting that despite the fact that Indy has been anhilating the spread for weeks now, none of us have gotten on the Indy wagon. I think it's that "if I get on now it will lose" superstition. 602883[/snapback] In my case, it's the "you b*stards have burned me enough" learning curve. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crispirons Posted December 11, 2004 Share Posted December 11, 2004 (edited) i agree chavez. the linesmakers seem to be challenging people to take dogs with the big numbers. i originally, like sarge, had all over/unders for picks this week. the other two were lions/gb under 45 and oak/atl under 46. bears/jags over 34.5. hutch brought the bears offense back to life a little last week. albeit against the p i ss poor defenseless viqueens. both teams are good defensively and play the run pretty well. just a percentage play here as i think the number is a tad low. 21-14 gets the cover. should happen. jets/pitt over 36. taking an over with 2 teams that love to run the ball and one team with the best defense in the league and the others very good? am i crazy? i guess not...since others played it as well. another percentage play here that passing is going to be a major part of the game, as i expect in the bears/jags game. carolina -6 vs. st. louis. the news of chandelier and arlen harris sealed the deal for me on this play. carolina playing well on both sides of the ball right now. st. louis isn't. in fact, i don't think its too big of a stretch to say they won't make the playoffs. new orleans +7 @ dallas. just like the points in this one. while dallas has played better with julius in there and the saints d sucks nards, dallas' d leaves something to be desired as well. in a defensless game, give me the points. could be last one with ball wins. Edited December 11, 2004 by crispirons Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Sacrebleu Posted December 12, 2004 Author Share Posted December 12, 2004 In the real world: I've got 40$ to make a 100$ on the saints to win the money line and 75$ on the over in the NYJ/Pitt games that is now at 34.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Sacrebleu Posted December 13, 2004 Author Share Posted December 13, 2004 Tough week for the crew Sac 3-1 crisp 2-2 sarge 0-4 chavez 0-4 spain 1-3 bringing the totals to: Crisps 25-10-1 sacrebleu 21-13-2 sarge 18-17-1 chavez 16-19-1 spain 14-19-3 Hey crisp, are those footsteps you're hearing? 3.5 games back with 3 weeks to go... Chavez after dabbling in a week of manly activities broke down and gave Spain a call. He is meeting him at Club Blue Boy to hash things out, and try to take back some of the hurftful things he said about Spain. Last I heard, they were getting ready for a week-end at a little B&B before hiking down that bisexual death march they had been meaning to take for sooo long.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crispirons Posted December 13, 2004 Share Posted December 13, 2004 making up 1 game a week isn't going to cut it sac. in fact, i would be willing to make an additional wager if you like that you don't make up the ground on me. i'll even give you 1.5/1 odds if you'd like to bet an extra 50 or something. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Sacrebleu Posted December 13, 2004 Author Share Posted December 13, 2004 (edited) making up 1 game a week isn't going to cut it sac. in fact, i would be willing to make an additional wager if you like that you don't make up the ground on me. i'll even give you 1.5/1 odds if you'd like to bet an extra 50 or something. 608256[/snapback] Perhaps one of the eggheads on this board (muck and wiegie come to mind) would be able to calculate what the true odds of someone being 3.5 games behind with 12 games to go, given that each proposition has a 50/50 percent chance of being succesful, would be. When that number is determined, maybe you'll put your money where your mouth is..... Edited December 13, 2004 by Dr. Sacrebleu Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Sacrebleu Posted December 13, 2004 Author Share Posted December 13, 2004 meanwhile, swisscheeze, has been pretty much on the money every time he chimes in. hopefully we can do a full season next year, and include him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spain Posted December 13, 2004 Share Posted December 13, 2004 Where do I send my $100? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiss Cheezhead Posted December 13, 2004 Share Posted December 13, 2004 meanwhile, swisscheeze, has been pretty much on the money every time he chimes in.hopefully we can do a full season next year, and include him. 608326[/snapback] I'd be game, but I wouldn't say I've been on the money every time. In fact, I didn't even follow my original instinct in my post above -- I originally didn't like the over on the PIT/NYJ game, but then I conceded that defensive injuries made it an O.K. play. Either way, I'm sure I could do better than spain and Chavez. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiegie Posted December 13, 2004 Share Posted December 13, 2004 (edited) Perhaps one of the eggheads on this board (muck and wiegie come to mind) would be able to calculate what the true odds of someone being 3.5 games behind with 12 games to go, given that each proposition has a 50/50 percent chance of being succesful, would be.When that number is determined, maybe you'll put your money where your mouth is..... 608317[/snapback] 7.5794816% (if you believe my colleague who got interested enough in the question to actually calculate the probabilities) Edited December 13, 2004 by wiegie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiegie Posted December 13, 2004 Share Posted December 13, 2004 bump to add revised answer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiegie Posted December 13, 2004 Share Posted December 13, 2004 7.5794816% (if you believe my colleague who got interested enough in the question to actually calculate the probabilities) 608586[/snapback] and just so you know, this answer is actually slightly off since we didn't consider the possibility of a "push" occuring. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiss Cheezhead Posted December 13, 2004 Share Posted December 13, 2004 Does that figure consider the possibility that both Sac and crispy might end up with some of the same picks? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiegie Posted December 13, 2004 Share Posted December 13, 2004 Does that figure consider the possibility that both Sac and crispy might end up with some of the same picks? 608789[/snapback] yes--that is what caused some of the difficulty in making the calculations Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chavez Posted December 13, 2004 Share Posted December 13, 2004 I LOATHED the point spreads this week My loathing appears to have been well founded. Indy/Houston over 57 - I thought I'd sworn off Indy and the fat over. I'm probably going to hate myself come Monday. 604030[/snapback] Peyton Manning can go to hell and die, as far as I"m concerned. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crispirons Posted December 14, 2004 Share Posted December 14, 2004 nice calculations wiege. so i would have to give sac 7/1 odds? ouch. i think i will crawl back to the corner and keep my mouth shut. nice job sac. have you had any losing weeks? i have been lucky so far. a couple of 2-2's and a 2-1-1 is the worst i have done on any given week. i would like to get back to those 3-1's i was putting out every week early on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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