hooknladder Posted August 23, 2008 Share Posted August 23, 2008 Since hooknladder got the last thread locked, gotta start another, since this is an extremely hot topic presently. Talked with Big Country about it last night, and we agreed that he may be moving TOO far up in some leagues' drafts. So, some questions on the topic: -- Is it a situation you now simply avoid? Don't want to take Williams too high (pun intended) and then have him fizzle. -- Is Brown now the "value"? With Williams rising, maybe you can get Brown later now. Seems like a decent play. -- The big thing for me is that Williams was thinking his relationship with Parcells would be on the tenuous side. But apparently it's been just the opposite. We know how Parcells loves his "vets". Is this a big factor? i'm not the one who got it locked...-but, thanks Darin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Posted August 23, 2008 Share Posted August 23, 2008 The last 6 weeks of 05 Ricky was the 8th RB. Not bad for a #2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawks21 Posted August 23, 2008 Share Posted August 23, 2008 I will try to simplify my thoughts. I can not see any scenario where Ronnie Brown and Ricky WIlliams are on a football field at the same time, and Ricky WIlliams outplays Brown, which is exactly what would have to happen for the Ricky Williams pipe dream to come to fruition. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Posted August 23, 2008 Share Posted August 23, 2008 I will try to simplify my thoughts. I can not see any scenario where Ronnie Brown and Ricky WIlliams are on a football field at the same time, and Ricky WIlliams outplays Brown, which is exactly what would have to happen for the Ricky Williams pipe dream to come to fruition. Three words-don't draft him. It's simple. You don't like him pick someone else. I showed you stats from 05 when he beat McGahee, SJax, Gore, Jamal, and FWP. That's far from a pipe dream. You'll be the one when you get beat by Ricky. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawks21 Posted August 23, 2008 Share Posted August 23, 2008 (edited) Three words-don't draft him. It's simple. You don't like him pick someone else. I showed you stats from 05 when he beat McGahee, SJax, Gore, Jamal, and FWP. That's far from a pipe dream. You'll be the one when you get beat by Ricky. Have you seen Shaun Alexander's stats from FOUR SEASONS AGO!?!??!? If Ricky is worth a 6th, Shaun must be a 2nd at worst!! I'm sorry to keep prodding, I just get the feeling that there has to be something I am missing here. I typically value the input of both you and Detlef, so I'm figuring there has to be something I am missing. I'm guessing that both of you had him in keeper leagues while he was successful or something like that. That is all I can come up with, since all of the past evidence is so far against a 30something backup RB from a terrible team being successful. Do you think that Ricky is going to play so well that Brown isn't going to get at least half the carries? We obviously agree to disagree, so I'm not going to beat this horse anymore. If you really do think Ricky is going to be successful, by all means send me a PM and we can setup some type of wager, cause to me this could be about as easy as money gets. Edited August 23, 2008 by Seahawks21 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CajunBadger Posted August 24, 2008 Share Posted August 24, 2008 I picked him up and after following tonight's play by play, I'm still not sure. On the first series he had three attempts to get into the end zone from the 3, 2, and 1 yd line to no avail (no gain, 1yd, -4yds respectively). I'll just have to try and be patient unless something else shakes out better... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
piratesownninjas Posted August 24, 2008 Share Posted August 24, 2008 by all means send me a PM and we can setup some type of wager, cause to me this could be about as easy as money gets. Why is it that every disagreement on the boards ends with this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
budlitebrad Posted August 24, 2008 Share Posted August 24, 2008 I have him as a RB4 and hope to sell high if he does well in the first couple weeks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KOKIDKOKID Posted August 24, 2008 Share Posted August 24, 2008 (edited) Why is it that every disagreement on the boards ends with this? I disagree..in fact, I bet you most disagreements don't end in wagers.....PM me and we can bet on it okay? KO'd Edited August 24, 2008 by KOKIDKOKID Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooknladder Posted August 24, 2008 Share Posted August 24, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CajunBadger Posted August 24, 2008 Share Posted August 24, 2008 (edited) I am curious what you all thought of his performance last night. While being stuffed at the goal line, he did get 47 yds rushing and catch two pass (albeit for only a few yards). And this for one half - at least that's my guess...no mention of him in the play by play after that. Edited August 24, 2008 by CajunBadger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Posted August 24, 2008 Share Posted August 24, 2008 (edited) I am curious what you all thought of his performance last night. While being stuffed at the goal line, he did get 47 yds rushing and catch two pass (albeit for only a few yards). And this for one half - at least that's my guess...no mention of him in the play by play after that. He looked strong(one play he stood up 2 tacklers) and pretty fast. When the line improves and they open holes he'll do fine. Pennington had him in the flat a few times uncovered and went elsewhere. On the ine stuffs the Chiefs had several players shooting the gaps. There was nowhere to run. Chad needs to throw occassionally(maybe to the backs) to keep them honest. Edited August 24, 2008 by Randall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CajunBadger Posted August 24, 2008 Share Posted August 24, 2008 (edited) So not to worry about his three stuffs trying to get into the endzone on the first series? I know its only one series and play by play doesn't show the full picture - but wondering about about building/maintaining coaching confidence in him and his staying ahead of Brown. And figure possibly/likely(?) will be RBBC but hoping Ricky gets more touches/looks. Was worried I might have to do a roster move due to MJD's injury, but appears it's not serious. Taylor's out there as a handcuff, but seems more of a benefit to use spot for someone else (Ricky). Edited August 24, 2008 by CajunBadger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griff321 Posted August 24, 2008 Share Posted August 24, 2008 So many bad points, so little time. First off I hate the old adage that once a player hits 30, he will drop faster then a ton of bricks. If anything it should be more of an issue of # of carries for how many years. Second I don't see why Ricky can't be a top 10-15 back if Brown continues to sit on the bench, at the very least I'll have a clear picture of how and when to use him. I can't say the same for the WRs selected in this range. The vast majority will have a good game or two on my bench and then put up an egg when I need a bye week filler. To me he has way more upside then most players being selected in that range. Third I've been looking all pre-season at how the line is performing. The 'fins went out and improved a unit that was very solid in the run game to begin with. Young and unproven but on paper it's a very good looking up and coming unit. There is a reason we draft and hold onto the Sproles and the Rhodes of the football world. Situation and opportunity is the name of the game. Fourth is the ol toking joker himself. To me he is running very strong. Hitting holes with authority and plowing over defenders for a few extra yards. I eat this stuff up and so do the coaches. The flip side is we have no idea how ronnie is running. Until we see something that shows he's running hard and with authority, then I want nothing to do with him and I'm sure the coaches are feeling the same. I have a hard time even thinking of a RB that blew out his knee and ran hard the next year back. So for me it all boils down to, will ronnie be able to run as well as ricky at any point in the year, maybe in the late second half, but this is still a long enough window to warrant some of the value he's getting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CajunBadger Posted August 24, 2008 Share Posted August 24, 2008 Good points Griff. Just watching the game on NFLNet and seeing it live rather than just play by play. He does look strong and fast in his earlier runs. Looked more like it was the line that couldn't open any holes for him to punch it into the end zone. Thinking better of this - though as you said, do need to see Brown for a better handle on what/if he can produce. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H8tank Posted August 24, 2008 Share Posted August 24, 2008 Was worried I might have to do a roster move due to MJD's injury, but appears it's not serious. Taylor's out there as a handcuff, Taylor as MJD's handcuff? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clubfoothead Posted August 24, 2008 Share Posted August 24, 2008 I've got this theory. It's from the 1990s but I keep it in my bag of tricks. When a team cannot throw the ball, defenses will sell out against the run until the teams forces the defense to play honest. So when you are looking at a RB, that is a factor in ranking them. There aint's $hit about the Miami passing game that makes me believe they will force defenses to play honest. Add In that during his most productive seasons (1999-2003) he fumbled the ball 34 times. His fumble numbers never really went down after his first two seasons. With Parcells running things, that won't fly no matter how bad Brown is hurt. Somebody has to get the carries in Miami so he has value but I can think of other RB2s I'd rather have. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted August 24, 2008 Share Posted August 24, 2008 Have you seen Shaun Alexander's stats from FOUR SEASONS AGO!?!??!? If Ricky is worth a 6th, Shaun must be a 2nd at worst!! I'm sorry to keep prodding, I just get the feeling that there has to be something I am missing here. I typically value the input of both you and Detlef, so I'm figuring there has to be something I am missing. I'm guessing that both of you had him in keeper leagues while he was successful or something like that. That is all I can come up with, since all of the past evidence is so far against a 30something backup RB from a terrible team being successful. Do you think that Ricky is going to play so well that Brown isn't going to get at least half the carries? We obviously agree to disagree, so I'm not going to beat this horse anymore. If you really do think Ricky is going to be successful, by all means send me a PM and we can setup some type of wager, cause to me this could be about as easy as money gets. I guess the crux of the issue here is that I don't think Ricky is going to be the back up. For starters, I simply do not have faith that Brown will be productive inside a year from knee surgery. Now he's got the busted up hand. The kid is obviously quite talented and he may be able to comeback next year but I'm just not seeing it this year. Add to it that I've heard nothing but good things coming out of Miami about Ricky. So, that's really it. Well, that and the fact that, like I said before, taking him in the 7th round means you're taking him at a spot that historically is not a gold mine for productive players. I showed you 2007, but, based on similar research I've done in the past, those rather meager numbers were consistent with other years as well. So, I don't think I'm passing up anyone all that money to give this thing a shot. Believe me, it's not that I'm so convinced that Ricky is going to light it up, rather that he seems to have as good or better shot of doing so as any number of other guys I can get at that spot in the draft. That's really it. I'm not predicting top 10 or even top 15. I'm not drafting him as my RB2, so even top 20 would be a pleasant surprise. That said, I wouldn't be stunned to see him do better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Posted August 24, 2008 Share Posted August 24, 2008 I guess the crux of the issue here is that I don't think Ricky is going to be the back up. For starters, I simply do not have faith that Brown will be productive inside a year from knee surgery. Now he's got the busted up hand. The kid is obviously quite talented and he may be able to comeback next year but I'm just not seeing it this year. Add to it that I've heard nothing but good things coming out of Miami about Ricky. So, that's really it. Well, that and the fact that, like I said before, taking him in the 7th round means you're taking him at a spot that historically is not a gold mine for productive players. I showed you 2007, but, based on similar research I've done in the past, those rather meager numbers were consistent with other years as well. So, I don't think I'm passing up anyone all that money to give this thing a shot. Believe me, it's not that I'm so convinced that Ricky is going to light it up, rather that he seems to have as good or better shot of doing so as any number of other guys I can get at that spot in the draft. That's really it. I'm not predicting top 10 or even top 15. I'm not drafting him as my RB2, so even top 20 would be a pleasant surprise. That said, I wouldn't be stunned to see him do better. Earlier I posted Ricky's numbers the last 6 weeks of 2005(from HOT one of the HAG leagues). There he was the 8th best RB over that period. I did it that way because it took him time to get in playing shape since he wasn't allowed to wqork with the team. He shared with Brown some of those weeks. I believe top 10 is possible this season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaterMan Posted August 24, 2008 Share Posted August 24, 2008 I will try to simplify my thoughts. I can not see any scenario where Ronnie Brown and Ricky WIlliams are on a football field at the same time, and Ricky WIlliams outplays Brown, which is exactly what would have to happen for the Ricky Williams pipe dream to come to fruition. Were you old enough to be watching football when Ricky played? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Posted August 24, 2008 Share Posted August 24, 2008 (edited) Have you seen Shaun Alexander's stats from FOUR SEASONS AGO!?!??!? If Ricky is worth a 6th, Shaun must be a 2nd at worst!! I'm sorry to keep prodding, I just get the feeling that there has to be something I am missing here. I typically value the input of both you and Detlef, so I'm figuring there has to be something I am missing. I'm guessing that both of you had him in keeper leagues while he was successful or something like that. That is all I can come up with, since all of the past evidence is so far against a 30something backup RB from a terrible team being successful. Do you think that Ricky is going to play so well that Brown isn't going to get at least half the carries? We obviously agree to disagree, so I'm not going to beat this horse anymore. If you really do think Ricky is going to be successful, by all means send me a PM and we can setup some type of wager, cause to me this could be about as easy as money gets. Shaun "give me the money so I don't have to try anymore" Alexander. Is that the one you are trying to say Ricky Wiliams is? Other than age exactly what else do they have in common? Look at Ricky and Ronnie's numbers in 05 you have ignored that I posted earlier. Look at Curtis Martin's numbers when he won the rushing title at 31. Edited August 24, 2008 by Randall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CajunBadger Posted August 25, 2008 Share Posted August 25, 2008 Taylor as MJD's handcuff? Guess I need to have "handcuff" clarified for me. The use I've seen is to have a player on your roster/bench in case your starter goes down (ie having Sproles in case I lose LT no...not trying to jinx anything here!). In this situation I think it's a bit atypical in that the two are splitting time and Taylor is currently available on waivers. While I can't afford the spot (nor do I see it benefiting my team at the moment), I would pick up Taylor if MJD was out for an extended period. Should think this reasonably fits? Any which way, back to something more important....the football game! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Posted August 25, 2008 Share Posted August 25, 2008 Guess I need to have "handcuff" clarified for me. The use I've seen is to have a player on your roster/bench in case your starter goes down (ie having Sproles in case I lose LT no...not trying to jinx anything here!). In this situation I think it's a bit atypical in that the two are splitting time and Taylor is currently available on waivers. While I can't afford the spot (nor do I see it benefiting my team at the moment), I would pick up Taylor if MJD was out for an extended period. Should think this reasonably fits? Any which way, back to something more important....the football game! Isn't Fred Taylor the listed starter? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawks21 Posted August 25, 2008 Share Posted August 25, 2008 (edited) Shaun "give me the money so I don't have to try anymore" Alexander. Is that the one you are trying to say Ricky Wiliams is? Other than age exactly what else do they have in common? Look at Ricky and Ronnie's numbers in 05 you have ignored that I posted earlier. Look at Curtis Martin's numbers when he won the rushing title at 31. Most of your points have some validity, but in no way, shape or form, amd I going to look at a stretch of 6 games from 4 years ago and think it holds any water. This isn't 2005 bro. That is just ridiculous. Like I said, Shaun Alexander was the MVP that season. Come on now. Ricky Williams couldn't hold Curtis Martin's ipod. Curtis Martin is a HOFer, one of the best ever, and had a heart bigger than New York City. Ricky is a quitter that is playing now because he owes people money. Don't compare the two. The only reason I want to wager on this is because it is easy money, and my business is bad lately. Come on, it's Ricky Williams. I mean,seriously fellas, you're better than this. Edited August 25, 2008 by Seahawks21 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
piratesownninjas Posted August 25, 2008 Share Posted August 25, 2008 the two are splitting time and Taylor is currently available on waivers. Dude, How small is your league and how many rounds do you draft? It says a lot about your league and all of its owners when Fred Taylor doesn't get drafted. Isn't Fred Taylor the listed starter? Yep Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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