Gopher Posted December 14, 2008 Share Posted December 14, 2008 in 30 years of wagering on the NFL i have never played a teaser that all changed this weekend and i may of went a little over board but my local now excepts them ( may also be my last time ) I'm way up so thought i would give a few 6.5 pt. teasers a try. Here is what i got ,,, any thoughts (they are already placed but was curious what you guys thought) KC + 12.5 / Den +15.5 / Ravens + 4 GB + 4.5 / 49ers + 13 / TB + 9.5 (Jets / Bills O 34.5)( Rams/ Hawks U 49) (Ravens / Steelers O 27.5 ) GB + 5 / Colts - 10 / Philly - 7 GB + 5 / Skins / Philly -7.5 Ravens + 4.5/ Skins / GB + 4.5 Looks like you got at least one, and another has a good shot (you were right on the O/U's). Skins were brutal today. I went the other way when the line moved....TB +5 in a battle Also on STL +3 Cincy +7 Dog-day afternoon, it seems. Nice... 2-0-1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whomper Posted December 14, 2008 Share Posted December 14, 2008 Had to really sweat that KC under at the end. Whew Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whomper Posted December 14, 2008 Share Posted December 14, 2008 I have balt -2.5 and that game to go over 34 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted December 14, 2008 Share Posted December 14, 2008 I have balt -2.5 and that game to go over 34 I took the over as well... as my only straight wager of the day. Not looking very promising. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whomper Posted December 14, 2008 Share Posted December 14, 2008 I took the over as well... as my only straight wager of the day. Not looking very promising. I took over 17 in the 2nd half too. I think there is some scoring left in this game Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MustOfBeenDrunk Posted December 14, 2008 Share Posted December 14, 2008 the Skins were the only team that really killed me today. Stayed off my Vikes ,, just want them to make the playoffs and didn't want to jinks them with a wager. can't believe they are up by 28-7 3rd qtr hopefully they can hold on ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xMRogers Posted December 15, 2008 Share Posted December 15, 2008 Went 4-1 on plays yesterday but lost parlays and teaser so about an even day. Going Philly tonight (my book had it 14 all week, but this morning it's 15.5. Other's seeing that change?) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MustOfBeenDrunk Posted December 15, 2008 Share Posted December 15, 2008 Went 4-1 on plays yesterday but lost parlays and teaser so about an even day. Going Philly tonight (my book had it 14 all week, but this morning it's 15.5. Other's seeing that change?) everywhere from 15 to 16 i have it locked in @ Philly -7 on a 3-team 7 point teaser Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted December 15, 2008 Share Posted December 15, 2008 Not a very good day on teasers yesterday... Won two, but lost six. Need Philly to just win tonight to complete a money line parlay for even money back (the other two components were MIA and NYJ winning). Think I'll probably stay away from tonight's game other than that... thought about doing a 6-pt teaser with PHI -9.5, but I can't decide which way to go on the O/U. I'll be more focused on my needing Westbrook to have a mediocre game, so I can get into the finals in my 4th fantasy league this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whomper Posted December 15, 2008 Share Posted December 15, 2008 Im going back into retirement Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xMRogers Posted December 15, 2008 Share Posted December 15, 2008 everywhere from 15 to 16 i have it locked in @ Philly -7 on a 3-team 7 point teaser So you saw it the same as me - 14 all week, but now up point or two? That's a big move in 12 hours after a week of holding steady Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted December 15, 2008 Share Posted December 15, 2008 Horrible week for me. Hit on Thursday night but blew it up on Sunday. Seems like only one play tonight. Eagles -16. Huge number, but come on. The Browns haven't scored an offensive TD in 3 games. The Eagles are on a roll and need this game to say in the hunt. The Eagles are at home. Big number like I said, but it is hard to imagine the Browns getting more than a couple of field goals here, and I think the Eagles offense can cover that. Over/Under looks like a no touch to me. I wouldn't bet the under because with Dorsey under center the Eagles defense could provide some additional scoring, and I wouldn't bet the over in anticipation that the Browns don't do anything and the Eagles have to push the over all by themselves. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE SIX KINGS Posted December 15, 2008 Share Posted December 15, 2008 Early Games Green Bay -2 Atlanta -3 Kansas City +5.5 NYJets -7.5 Over 45 Ten @ Hou 1-3-1 on Sunday Thinking under 39 for tonight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MustOfBeenDrunk Posted December 15, 2008 Share Posted December 15, 2008 everywhere from 15 to 16 i have it locked in @ Philly -7 on a 3-team 7 point teaser I have a decent size wager on the teaser above was thinking about hedging my bet with Cleveland Browns +7 ½ +235 http://www.betjm.com/viewlines.aspx?SP=Foo...001&S=10000 - now that i write this i think i will just ride the Eagles -7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MustOfBeenDrunk Posted December 15, 2008 Share Posted December 15, 2008 i just placed a 3-team parley for next week 49ers - 5.5 Saints - 7 Jets - 4.5 then to back it up i played the same 3-team parley as a 6.5pt teaser posting now because these will be my only wagers next week and love the early lines Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted December 15, 2008 Author Share Posted December 15, 2008 So you saw it the same as me - 14 all week, but now up point or two? That's a big move in 12 hours after a week of holding steady XM - moves on gameday are not that surprising, typically most people bet on gameday. The fact that the line has moved from 14 to 15 and then to 16 is not that significant of a move. Much different from moving from 2 to 4 or from 9 to 11. 15 and 16 simply do not occur very much. In all lined games since 1990, the favorite wins by 14, 3.46% of the time. 15 is 1.24% and 16 is 1.34% whereas 17 is 2.77%. Thus, 15 and 16 combined are less than 17. Moving up from the favorite winning by 1 to the favorite winning by 17, the most uncommon numbers are 9 (1.2%) followed closely by 15 and 12, tied at 1.24%. The 4th most uncommon is 16 at 1.34%. Therefore, they simply are bumping the number up through the 2nd most uncommon number and placing it on the 4th most uncommon number. If you only look at games where the favorite is lined by between 13 and 17 points: 14 - 6.25% 15 - 1.34% 16 - 0.89% 17 - 4.91% Anything is possible and moving from 14.5 to 16 would make you lose on a 15 which occurs between 1.24 and 1.34% of the time. That's all we really are talking here. So though the amount of 2 points may seem like several, it really is relatively "minor" move across these numbers, given that it would hit 15 once every 75-80 games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted December 15, 2008 Author Share Posted December 15, 2008 The key was moving "off" the 14. Once it moved to 14.5, the difference between that and 16 is not as much as it seems. But it would take a lot to move it "off" 14, but by the looks of some of the percentages, there was significantly enough action on Philly to warrant moving it off 14. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MTSuper7 Posted December 15, 2008 Share Posted December 15, 2008 Horrible week for me. Hit on Thursday night but blew it up on Sunday. Seems like only one play tonight. Eagles -16. Huge number, but come on. The Browns haven't scored an offensive TD in 3 games. The Eagles are on a roll and need this game to say in the hunt. The Eagles are at home. Big number like I said, but it is hard to imagine the Browns getting more than a couple of field goals here, and I think the Eagles offense can cover that. Over/Under looks like a no touch to me. I wouldn't bet the under because with Dorsey under center the Eagles defense could provide some additional scoring, and I wouldn't bet the over in anticipation that the Browns don't do anything and the Eagles have to push the over all by themselves. If there is one thing about the NFL that I've learned, it's that the more evidence I can think of why a game should go a certain way, the more likely that it doesn't. Indianapolis should have blown out Detroit, right? I wouldn't be surprised if Cleveland's D keeps this game close for a while. Philly's offense has this weird way of sucking from time to time. I could see tonight being one of those times... 20-6, Eagles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darin3 Posted December 15, 2008 Share Posted December 15, 2008 I don't like that hugh spread one bit. So, rather than throwing money on the dog - which pains me - I went ahead with some more fun props. Got even odds at McNabb rushing for more than 15 yards. Got L.J. Smith at 17:2 for first TD. Hey, he was paydirt in the Super Bowl a few years back for the same bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted December 16, 2008 Share Posted December 16, 2008 If there is one thing about the NFL that I've learned, it's that the more evidence I can think of why a game should go a certain way, the more likely that it doesn't. Indianapolis should have blown out Detroit, right? I wouldn't be surprised if Cleveland's D keeps this game close for a while. Philly's offense has this weird way of sucking from time to time. I could see tonight being one of those times... 20-6, Eagles. I called the Browns cover against the Giants on MNF a couple of months ago. I am not feeling such an uprising tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE SIX KINGS Posted December 16, 2008 Share Posted December 16, 2008 Monday Night 2 Team Parlay Cleveland +15.5 under 42 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted December 16, 2008 Share Posted December 16, 2008 wanted some homer action, so took the Eagles -16 to finish the perfect week (currently 2-0-1) Alos propped Westbrook at over 45 yards rushing 1st half....got it at even money, now up to -130, so hedged some of it with another bet of 25-44 yards at +195. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MTSuper7 Posted December 16, 2008 Share Posted December 16, 2008 I called the Browns cover against the Giants on MNF a couple of months ago. I am not feeling such an uprising tonight. And your gut was right... I guess I didn't realize just how horrendous Ken Dorsey is when making my original post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted December 16, 2008 Share Posted December 16, 2008 Reid has taken McNabb out, and Kolb throws a pick-6 to decrease the lead to only 20 points....with 9 minutes left. If there is a back-door cover, I'll personally drive to the Linc and lampoon Reid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trots Posted December 16, 2008 Share Posted December 16, 2008 Reid has taken McNabb out, and Kolb throws a pick-6 to decrease the lead to only 20 points....with 9 minutes left. If there is a back-door cover, I'll personally drive to the Linc and lampoon Reid. lampoon or harpoon? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.