PROJECTED END OF SEASON RECORDS

[muck]

AFC seedings

11-5 PIT

11-5 NYJ

10-6 IND

10-6 KC

11-5 BAL

10-6 NE

 

NFC seedings

11-5 ATL

11-5 NYG

10-6 GB

8-8 STL

10-6 NO

10-6 PHI

 

Top 10 Draft Picks:

3-13 BUF

3-13 CAR

4-12 DAL

5-11 DEN

5-11 CIN

5-11 SF

6-10 DET

7-9 MIN

7-9 JAC

7-9 ARI

 

***********************************

 

DIVISIONAL STANDINGS

AFC East

11-5 NYJ

10-6 NE

8-8 MIA

3-13 BUF

 

AFC North

11-5 PIT

11-5 BAL

7-9 CLE

5-11 CIN

 

AFC South

10-6 IND

10-6 TEN

8-8 HOU

7-9 JAC

 

AFC West

10-6 KC

9-7 OAK

8-8 SD

5-11 DEN

 

NFC East

11-5 NYG

10-6 PHI

8-8 WAS

4-12 DAL

 

NFC North

10-6 GB

9-7 CHI

7-9 MIN

6-10 DET

 

NFC South

11-5 ATL

10-6 NO

9-7 TB

3-13 CAR

 

NFC West

8-8 STL

8-8 SEA

7-9 ARI

5-11 SF

 

NOTE: The wins/losses are off by 6 games' outcome (259 wins v. 253 losses) across the entire NFL. Because I project a W/L percentage, occasionally, due to rounding, the standings will have teams (in total) will have a couple more wins than loss, or vice versa.

 

***********************************

 

Teams with the easiest schedule here on out -- future opponents W/L %:

0.328 ARI

0.404 SD

0.439 KC

0.446 PIT

0.453 CLE

 

Teams with the hardest schedule here on out -- future opponents W/L %:

0.609 CAR

0.578 HOU

0.554 JAC

0.547 TEN

0.547 WAS

 

***********************************

 

Power Ranks:

1.185 PIT

1.161 NYG

1.147 ATL

1.146 NYJ

1.130 TEN

1.126 IND

1.126 BAL

1.119 GB

1.104 NO

1.094 PHI

1.094 NE

1.070 SD

1.063 KC

1.063 OAK

1.009 CHI

1.000 TB

0.996 CLE (really big move up!)

0.994 MIA

0.984 STL

0.973 WAS

0.966 HOU

0.956 DET

0.953 MIN

0.909 CIN

0.906 SEA

0.879 JAC

0.864 ARI

0.862 SF

0.848 DEN

0.805 DAL

0.756 BUF (despite their oh-fer record thus far, they have (barely) moved past CAR on the Power Ranking)

0.745 CAR

 

***********************************

 

After starting two weeks ago, the methodology below has been 18-7 outright winners:

 

Week 10 Projections:

SEA at ARI ... ARI by 2.7 pts

BAL at ATL ... ATL by 3.9 pts

BUF at DET ... DET by 2.5 pts

CAR at TB ... TB by 2.5 pts

MIN at CHI ... MIN by 2.2 pts

CIN at IND ... IND by 7.3 pts

NYJ at CLE ... NYJ by 5.7 pts

DAL at NYG ... NYG by 4.2 pts

KC at DEN ... KC by 8.5 pts

HOU at JAC ... HOU by 6.0 pts

TEN at MIA ... TEN by 7.8 pts

NE at PIT ... NE by 0.5 pts

PHI at WAS ... PHI by 5.3 pts

STL at SF ... STL by 6.1 pts

 

...interesting...picking 9 road winners (out of 14 games) this week...

 

...assumes a 3.0 point "home field advantage" vs. the score at a neutral site...

Edited November 9, 2010 by muck

[muck]

New Feature:

 

Decending order of "big point games" (i.e., the highest projected compbined score is at the top; the lowest combined projected score is at the bottom)

 

STL at SF

TEN at MIA

HOU at JAC

KC at DEN

MIN at CHI

PHI at WAS

NYJ at CLE

CHI at IND

DAL at NYG

ATL at BAL

ARI at SEA

NE at PIT

CAR at TB

BUF at DET

[chester]

I'll be the first to say thanks for all this stuff!

[Big John]

Good work

 

(But the BAL/ATL game is in Atlanta)

[i_am_the_swammi]

Awesome stuff, Muck!

[loaf]

can you move the browns up higher next week? TIA

[Bronco Billy]

Hey, muck! What's up, GB?

 

Couldn't help but notice this:

 

Power Ranks (projected record to end of season):

1.185 PIT (5-3)

1.161 NYG (5-3)

1.147 ATL (5-3)

1.146 NYJ (5-3)

1.130 TEN (5-3)

1.126 IND (5-3)

1.126 BAL (5-3)

1.119 GB (4-3)

1.104 NO (4-3)

1.094 PHI (5-3)

1.094 NE (4-4)

1.070 SD (4-3)

 

So of the top 12 most powerful teams in the NFL, none of them are projected to do better than 5-3 the rest of the year?

[muck]

Good work

 

(But the BAL/ATL game is in Atlanta)

 

Thanks for pointing that out.

 

I typed it in the thread wrong; I typed it in my "game prediction" spreadsheet correctly; ATL is still favored by 3.9 pts.

[muck]

Hey, muck! What's up, GB?

 

Couldn't help but notice this:

 

Power Ranks (projected record to end of season):

1.185 PIT (5-3)

1.161 NYG (5-3)

1.147 ATL (5-3)

1.146 NYJ (5-3)

1.130 TEN (5-3)

1.126 IND (5-3)

1.126 BAL (5-3)

1.119 GB (4-3)

1.104 NO (4-3)

1.094 PHI (5-3)

1.094 NE (4-4)

1.070 SD (4-3)

 

So of the top 12 most powerful teams in the NFL, none of them are projected to do better than 5-3 the rest of the year?

 

Don't know what to tell you... I'm open to your analysis that yields results you like better.

 

******************************************

 

Future Schedule Difficulty Rank (average Power Rank of future opponents):

1.064 CIN

1.048 JAC

1.047 DAL

1.047 CAR

1.039 CHI

1.036 NE

1.029 BUF

1.029 HOU

1.026 GB

1.024 OAK

1.023 WAS

1.019 MIA

1.018 DEN

1.012 TEN

1.010 IND

1.010 MIN

1.007 BAL

0.989 NYJ

0.986 NYG

0.982 NO

0.979 PIT

0.979 PHI

0.977 TB

0.974 SF

0.971 SEA

0.968 CLE

0.966 ATL

0.966 DET

0.964 KC

0.960 SD

0.957 STL

0.884 ARI (cream puff schedule)

[Bronco Billy]

Don't know what to tell you... I'm open to your analysis that yields results you like better.

 

[muck]

 

[chester]

Don't know what to tell you... I'm open to your analysis that yields results you like better.

 

Anybody can do this:

 

GB 7-0

Rest of league 0-7 or 0-8

 

:Big John: everybody else can't lose every game :BigJohn:

[borge007]

Muck-You do nice work!! Did you bet $$ on your picks last week? If you didn't you should have SEA is at ARI and DET is at BUF this week. Thanks for taking time to do your analyses .

[Brentastic]

Just want to add my thanks as well. Love this analysis!!

[muck]

Muck-You do nice work!!

 

My wife says the same thing.

 

 

Did you bet $$ on your picks last week? If you didn't you should have

 

Nope ... no betting here ... just a little internal competition.

 

 

SEA is at ARI and DET is at BUF this week. Thanks for taking time to do your analyses .

 

I will fix the above post; thanks for catching this:

 

ARI is still favored by 2.7pts

DET is still favored by 2.5pts

 

...I had typed it into my 'predictor' app correctly...but had mis-typed into the original thread...

Edited November 9, 2010 by muck

[muck]

Hey, muck! What's up, GB?

 

Couldn't help but notice this:

 

Power Ranks (projected record to end of season):

1.185 PIT (5-3)

1.161 NYG (5-3)

1.147 ATL (5-3)

1.146 NYJ (5-3)

1.130 TEN (5-3)

1.126 IND (5-3)

1.126 BAL (5-3)

1.119 GB (4-3)

1.104 NO (4-3)

1.094 PHI (5-3)

1.094 NE (4-4)

1.070 SD (4-3)

 

So of the top 12 most powerful teams in the NFL, none of them are projected to do better than 5-3 the rest of the year?

 

Actually ... because I project a W/L % for a team, and then round to the nearest whole # of wins, the actual projected W/L (carried out to two decimals) for each of these 12 teams is as follows:

 

1.185 PIT (5-3) --- 5.49 - 2.51

1.161 NYG (5-3) --- 4.87 - 3.13

1.147 ATL (5-3) --- 4.95 - 3.05

1.146 NYJ (5-3) --- 5.00 - 3.00

1.130 TEN (5-3) --- 4.61 - 3.39

1.126 IND (5-3) --- 4.63 - 3.37

1.126 BAL (5-3) --- 4.65 - 3.35

1.119 GB (4-3) --- 3.83 - 3.17

1.104 NO (4-3) --- 3.90 - 3.10

1.094 PHI (5-3) --- 4.81 - 3.19

1.094 NE (4-4) --- 4.32 - 3.68

1.070 SD (4-3) --- 4.15 - 2.85

 

...and, in all seriousness, the correct response to your original query is: "Any given Sunday."

 

Exhibit A --> Cleveland beating New England by 20pts last weekend.

[Bronco Billy]

My wife says the same thing.

 

 

1.185 PIT (5-3) --- 5.49 - 2.51

1.161 NYG (5-3) --- 4.87 - 3.13

1.147 ATL (5-3) --- 4.95 - 3.05

1.146 NYJ (5-3) --- 5.00 - 3.00

1.130 TEN (5-3) --- 4.61 - 3.39

1.126 IND (5-3) --- 4.63 - 3.37

1.126 BAL (5-3) --- 4.65 - 3.35

1.119 GB (4-3) --- 3.83 - 3.17

1.104 NO (4-3) --- 3.90 - 3.10

1.094 PHI (5-3) --- 4.81 - 3.19

1.094 NE (4-4) --- 4.32 - 3.68

1.070 SD (4-3) --- 4.15 - 2.85

 

Does she say it because you're busy calculating freakin' wins & loses to the hundredth place?

 

[muck]

Does she say it because you're busy calculating freakin' wins & loses to the hundredth place?

 

 

All I'm going to say is that my wife appreciates my attention to details.

 

[muck]

***********************************

 

After starting two weeks ago, the methodology below has been 18-7 outright winners:

 

Week 10 Projections:

SEA at ARI ... ARI by 2.7 pts

BAL at ATL ... ATL by 3.9 pts

BUF at DET ... DET by 2.5 pts

CAR at TB ... TB by 2.5 pts

MIN at CHI ... MIN by 2.2 pts

CIN at IND ... IND by 7.3 pts

NYJ at CLE ... NYJ by 5.7 pts

DAL at NYG ... NYG by 4.2 pts

KC at DEN ... KC by 8.5 pts

HOU at JAC ... HOU by 6.0 pts

TEN at MIA ... TEN by 7.8 pts

NE at PIT ... NE by 0.5 pts

PHI at WAS ... PHI by 5.3 pts

STL at SF ... STL by 6.1 pts

 

...interesting...picking 8 road winners (out of 14 games) this week...

 

...assumes a 3.0 point "home field advantage" vs. the score at a neutral site...

 

...not bad, if I do say so myself...

 

Again, I have ZERO idea what Vegas is saying the lines are on these games...

Edited November 12, 2010 by muck

[Caveman_Nick]

So, I'm curious...

 

This model predicted NE winning by a slight margin @ PIT, even though the same model thinks PIT is a much stronger team and was getting 3 points for being at home.

 

Can you 'splain the math?

[muck]

So, I'm curious...

 

This model predicted NE winning by a slight margin @ PIT, even though the same model thinks PIT is a much stronger team and was getting 3 points for being at home.

 

Can you 'splain the math?

 

When projecting a game, I determine what the projected combined score would be (consider it an 'over/under' type of number), and then determine what % of that number each team will get.

 

In order to do that, I compare the Power Ranks, and then I also compare separetely a few different versions of "Points Scored by Team A vs. Points Allowed by Team B" vs. "Points Scored by Team B vs. Points Allowed by Team A" ... and put all the math in a big bowl, stir occasionally until a slow boil occurs, then serve.

 

Bon appetite.

[muck]

...this was an interesting week of football with some huge blow-out wins and some previously sad-sack teams winning...sometimes the sad-sack team was the one winning in blow-out fashion...

 

I may have time to run the numbers tonight for next week after MNF...we'll see...