Last year's monster QB seasons... fluke or the new normal?

[MnLefty]

Still bouncing back and forth on the idea of taking a QB early... it really all comes down to if the top 4 (Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Stafford) have any chance of replicating the monster seasons from last year. History would say no.

 

4500yds + 35 TD (10 times)

There's only been 10 QB seasons in the history of the NFL of 4500+ yds AND 35+ TD's and 4 of them were last year. Incidentally, Peyton Manning and Daunte Culpepper did it in the same year as well (2004). Beyond those 2 years, there's only Brady in 2007 (50td year), Warner in 2001 with the greatest show on turf, and Marino twice in 84 and 86.

 

4500yds (28 times)

Of the 28 4500+ seasons, 6 were last year. The 4 guys mentioned, plus Rivers and Eli. But there have been 9 other seasons since 2007, so yards are definitely up overall. However only 2 guys have done it 3 times (Brees and Peyton) and 5 more who have done it twice. (Rivers, Brady, Marino, Warner, and Fouts) So, while yards are on the increase, last season was still quite the anomoly by having 6 guys do it.

 

35 TD's (21 times)

Of the 21 seasons of 35 TD's 4 were last year, and only 3 others since 2007. Brady and Favre are the only ones to do it 3 times, Marino, Young and Warner did it twice... nobody else more than once.

 

I didn't realize just how historic last season was in terms of those 4 guys doing what they did. History would suggest that they definitely won't ALL repeat last years numbers, and it's very likely none of them will, especially the monster TD numbers. Check this out, year by year passing TD leaders..

2011 Drew Brees (32) 46 NOR 2010 Tom Brady (33) 36 NWE 2009 Drew Brees (30) 34 NOR 2008 Philip Rivers (27) 34 SDG Drew Brees (29) 34 NOR 2007 Tom Brady (30) 50 NWE 2006 Peyton Manning (30) 31 IND 2005 Carson Palmer (26) 32 CIN 2004 Peyton Manning (28) 49 IND 2003 Brett Favre (34) 32 GNB 2002 Tom Brady (25) 28 NWE 2001 Kurt Warner (30) 36 STL 2000 Peyton Manning (24) 33 IND Daunte Culpepper (23) 33 MIN 1999 Kurt Warner (28) 41 STL 1998 Steve Young+ (37) 36 SFO 1997 Brett Favre (28) 35 GNB 1996 Brett Favre (27) 39 GNB 1995 Brett Favre (26) 38 GNB 1994 Steve Young+ (33) 35 SFO 1993 Steve Young+ (32) 29 SFO 1992 Steve Young+ (31) 25 SFO 1991 Jim Kelly+ (31) 33 BUF 1990 Warren Moon+ (34) 33 HOU

 

Now does taking one of those guys increase your odds of a monster, championship type season... sure, but you better get the right one because they're probably not all doing it again.

[Ditkaless Wonders]

It is both a golden age of Q.B.ing and a new era of rules. This is indeed the new norm.

['canes2004]

It is both a golden age of Q.B.ing and a new era of rules. This is indeed the new norm.

 

 

This.

 

Makes me wonder what kind of numbers ole Danny Boy would of put up with these rules?

[MTSuper7]

Fluke. Sure, QB numbers may increase a little over their pre 2011 averages, but to suggest 5,000 yards and 40 + TDs will regularly be reached by multiple QBs seems crazy. The TDs maybe, but the yards? Nah...

[ledfut]

It surprising how quickly people forget the lockout. You don't think that defenses not being able to practice together all summer had nothing to do with the poor performance of defenses league-wide?

 

I think as noted above that the QB numbers are going to rise slightly, but I doubt we're going to see another 4 QBs passing for over 5,000 yards again this year.

[stevegrab]

Increased QB scoring will be the new norm, maybe not to the extend of last year, but its very likely to continue an uptick over time. The stats you post kind of back that up, with the majority of those big numbers coming over the past 10-15 years.

 

So I guess I'm in the middle of fluke and new norm.

 

And yes, no offseason had an affect on the defenses no doubt.

[loaf]

 

So I guess I'm in the middle of fluke and new norm.

 

more commonly called the florm

[Big Country]

And yes, no offseason had an affect on the defenses no doubt.

 

 

I've seen some stats that seem to indicate that this was a bigger factor than many seem to want to believe.

 

While I think the rule changes have had an affect and we will see generally higher scoring from the passing game, which has been a trend over the last few years, I think last years numbers were more likely an anomaly more heavily influenced by the lockout.

[Ditkaless Wonders]

Increased QB scoring will be the new norm, maybe not to the extend of last year, but its very likely to continue an uptick over time. The stats you post kind of back that up, with the majority of those big numbers coming over the past 10-15 years.

 

So I guess I'm in the middle of fluke and new norm.

 

And yes, no offseason had an affect on the defenses no doubt.

 

 

Isn't the common knowledge that without practice the Defense is always ahead of the Offense? Don't we see that borne out every year in the first preseason games?

[keggerz]

 

 

Isn't the common knowledge that without practice the Defense is always ahead of the Offense? Don't we see that borne out every year in the first preseason games?

 

What Iwas going to point out. Would think offenses, that depend on timing would need more practice together.

[Chavez]

What Iwas going to point out. Would think offenses, that depend on timing would need more practice together.

 

 

I'm more on leftout's side here - maybe, with the increased (verging on obnoxious) rule slants towards offenses, the field has tilted where less practice time goes in favor of offense, as opposed to the traditional "less preparation favors the defense" conventional wisdom.

 

After all, these days, defenders need to know complex coverage/blitz schemes, pass-blocking is more liberalized than ever, and defenders need to tread lightly when hitting ANY offensive player, not just QBs. It all may contribute to uncertainty falling more on the defenders side than that of the...uh, offenders*

 

Looking at it statistically, last year good-to-solid defenses on SEVERAL playoff teams fell off a complete cliff during the regular season (Giants, Jets, Pats, Packers, I'd even lump the Lions in there, as their D totally went to hell from '10 even though they were record-wise a "better" team)....that's too big a chunk of the league having SIGNIFICANT falloff, with most of them having no major personnel or coaching changes, for me to say it was just 5 or 6 individual hiccups.

 

* - hey, that's how it works out linguistically

[Chavez]

That said, I think I'd view big QB seasons as probably more towards the norm than flukish, unless some coach comes up with a paradigm-shifting defensive concept.

 

4500 yds, 30 td seasons - which used to be the stuff MVPs were made of - are probably going to become, if not common, at least relatively unremarkable.

[BA Baracus]

I'd say that that less practice favors the offense. The offense has the initiative and knows what it wants to do, the defense has to react. DB's need a lot of time together to make zone coverage work. For the defenders to all read the offensive formations the same way and end up on the same page takes a lot of repetition. Granted, offenses that do a lot of play changing at the line or exotic o-line schemes would be hurt by the lockout, but the teams that do that (think pats, packers, and giants) had most of their key players returning last year and really just needed to shake off the rust. Just my opinion.

 

That said, I think hat the rule changes and the broad based shift to more pass vs run means that QB stats will stay high. Just how high remains to be seen, but I'd think that we'll see at least a couple of guys hit 4500 yards and one guy sniffing 40 td's.

[Ditkaless Wonders]

I'm more on leftout's side here - maybe, with the increased (verging on obnoxious) rule slants towards offenses, the field has tilted where less practice time goes in favor of offense, as opposed to the traditional "less preparation favors the defense" conventional wisdom.

 

After all, these days, defenders need to know complex coverage/blitz schemes, pass-blocking is more liberalized than ever, and defenders need to tread lightly when hitting ANY offensive player, not just QBs. It all may contribute to uncertainty falling more on the defenders side than that of the...uh, offenders*

 

Looking at it statistically, last year good-to-solid defenses on SEVERAL playoff teams fell off a complete cliff during the regular season (Giants, Jets, Pats, Packers, I'd even lump the Lions in there, as their D totally went to hell from '10 even though they were record-wise a "better" team)....that's too big a chunk of the league having SIGNIFICANT falloff, with most of them having no major personnel or coaching changes, for me to say it was just 5 or 6 individual hiccups.

 

* - hey, that's how it works out linguistically

 

 

Food for thought here.

[Ditkaless Wonders]

Offenses have to coordinate blocking, get recievers and Q.B's to read coverage the same way, and that takes time as well.

[Chavez]

 

 

Food for thought here.

 

 

...which could all be total crap once the season starts and 6 QBs are on pace for 6000 yds through the first 4 weeks.

[Ice1]

Sure looks like the new normal with the tier 1 QB's. Rodgers, Brady, Brees, & Stafford are in full time beast mode. Newton is on their heels although a much different type of player so a higher risk selection in my view.

 

Stafford has the best chance to fall late 2nd but could easily be top 3 with Calvin on the receiving end.

 

All 5 should be gone by the end of round 2 in 12 team leagues this year.

Edited August 23, 2012 by Ice1

[keggerz]

Honestly I think this debate is like the Chicken or the egg debate.

[keggerz]

Just wait until RG3 becomes the 1st QB to run for 1000 and pass for 4000...don't think it happens this year, but I do think it happens. When that was first said to me I was like "no way" but since have warmed up to it.

[Grits and Shins]

The problem with taking a QB early is if you do you really have to land one of those guys that distinguishes himself from the others. That can be tricky - as you said just because one does it last year doesn't mean he will this year. And even if you DO land one of the right guys if it turns out that the top 4 or 5 don't really distinguish themselves from the others then it may not pay off either.

 

The never ending debate because only 12 of them will start in your league and the drop off from the 1st QB to the 12th QB has to be considered in relation to the other players you could draft - ESPECIALLY in this new world of RBBC.

[keggerz]

The problem with taking a QB early is if you do you really have to land one of those guys that distinguishes himself from the others. That can be tricky - as you said just because one does it last year doesn't mean he will this year. And even if you DO land one of the right guys if it turns out that the top 4 or 5 don't really distinguish themselves from the others then it may not pay off either.

 

The never ending debate because only 12 of them will start in your league and the drop off from the 1st QB to the 12th QB has to be considered in relation to the other players you could draft - ESPECIALLY in this new world of RBBC.

 

Look who it is, hope things are going well...oh and I created a league that you would absolutely hate...the response "start the player that scores the most points" doesn't always hold water here you go http://forums.thehuddle.com/index.php?/topic/376111-the-evolution-of-fantasy-football/page__hl__%2Bfull+%2Bimpact

 

/hijack

[Grits and Shins]

Look who it is, hope things are going well...oh and I created a league that you would absolutely hate...the response "start the player that scores the most points" doesn't always hold water here you go http://forums.thehud...__+full +impact

 

/hijack

 

 

LOL ... that is funny. It still holds water in all leagues except any leagues that may be structured like that one!

[Papajohn]

Isn't the common knowledge that without practice the Defense is always ahead of the Offense? Don't we see that borne out every year in the first preseason games?

 

 

That was the assumption going into last season but it changed along the way. Now nobody knows.

[Big Country]

Here is the main stat that I have seen that is the main reason why I think that perhaps the defenses were well behind, especially at the start of last season:

 

2009 - Passing YPG increased from weeks 1-9 to 10-17 by 10% (from 452-497 ypg)

2010 - Passing YPG increased from weeks 1-9 to 10-17 by 5.8% (from 449-475 ypg)

 

so, if we consider this a baseline of what to expect in a normal year, we would expect to see a similar trend of increasing passing yards over the season, and, I would think we could probably expect the numbers to be a bit lower initially due to the lack of an offseason.

 

But, what we got was this:

 

2011 - Passing YPG decreased from weeks 1-9 to 10-17 by 3.6% (from 497-479 ypg)

 

 

What this indicates to me is that the offense actually started out well ahead of the defense and then the balance regressed to the norm towards the end of the season.

 

One theory I have seen for this is that a lot of the QBs were running passing clinics, etc. with their receivers during the lockout so perhaps they came to the start of the season much more prepared than any other facet of the teams.

 

(Disclosure - I didn't crunch these numbers myself, I've seen them presented elsewhere and think they could be telling. Certainly not definitive, but definitely implies that perhaps last year was an anomaly.)

[Bronco Billy]

Offenses have to coordinate blocking, get recievers and Q.B's to read coverage the same way, and that takes time as well.

 

 

True, but I think the uberstud QBs can take advantage of underprepared Ds much better than the rest of the league - even moreso with the rules skewed in favor of the O.

 

As Ds get more group work and film study with coaching, they can find ways to take a few things away from those guys.

 

Hence the uberstuds put up massive numbers.