What is the foolishness?

[Team Archer]

I stumbled across this article about a zero-rb draft strategy and i wonder what everyone thinks about it. Basically its saying if you load up on elite recievers with a pretty good TE, you can surprise people in your league with how well you do by getting away with RBs such as Matthews, Ivory, abdullah, Martin, etc. What yall think? I admit i will be doing mock drafts to see how my team looks.

[Wubammer]

Cool...post your results

[Big Country]

If you are lucky enough to hit on the very few RBs that way outperform their draft position, and the WRs you draft early perform as expected, it can work wonders.

 

No different than loading up on RBs early and drafting high upside WRs later - if you hit on the few WRs that outperform their draft position and those RBs perform as expected, you will do well.

[Zooty]

Lot of luck needed for this strategy IMO. Even more than more common strategies. You need to guess lucky, grab the next Forsett or CJ Anderson early in the year to really have a shot.

 

I think this gets a bit more play in best ball leagues since you don't need to set a line-up but otherwise it's just use a shotgun and hope you hut the right ones

[darin3]

I've done it before - with success - and have been doing it again this year... and will likely do it again.

 

But, as with all "strategies", you need not only a lot of luck (meaning not only avoiding killer injuries, but having a good number of your players outperform their ADP).

Edited August 27, 2015 by darin3

[Team Archer]

I've done it before - with success - and have been doing it again this year... and will likely do it again.

 

But, as with all "strategies", you need not only a lot of luck (meaning not only avoiding killer injuries, but having a good number of your players outperform their ADP).

So are the chances higher drafting the so called traditional way in say a 10 man standard? (RB,RB,RB or RB,RB,WR) or is zero RB strategy more luck than anything?

[Big Country]

Look at it this way.

 

 

Let's say on average 5-6 of the top 10 RBs at the end of the season were preseason ranked in the top 10. Another 2-4 were ranked in the 11-20 range. Then you get 0-2 from outside the top 20 that finish top 10.

 

By skipping RB early, you are relying on finding that 1 or 2 RBs out of every RB not ranked in the top 20 that performs that well. Let's say that we even limit the pool to RBs that are generally ranked in the top 50 (though we know that sometimes the guy that does this literally seems to come out of nowhere), this means we now have 1-2 RBs out of 30 that may perform at this level. That's at most a 5% hit rate by waiting until after the top 20 RBs are gone to try and find your RBs. It's a gamble to say the least in a 1 RB league, slightly nuts in a 2 RB league.

 

One of the reasons that I think it is gaining popularity is survivorship bias - at the end of the year we hear all about how this guy won his league with CJ Anderson (last year), or Arian Foster (several years ago) etc., but we are not hearing the stories from the thousands of guys that swung and missed - it's not like they jump on the boards saying I went 3-10 this year because I loaded up on WR/TE or went QB early and gambled on Bilal Powell and Danny Woodhead to lead me to the promised land.

 

 

So, can it work - definitely, but like any strategy it takes a level of luck in finding the right guys late that outperform their ADP and it also takes a level of luck on taking the guys early that perform relatively close to their ADP (and of course avoiding the injury bug)

[darin3]

So are the chances higher drafting the so called traditional way in say a 10 man standard? (RB,RB,RB or RB,RB,WR) or is zero RB strategy more luck than anything?

 

I'm not sure what you're asking, but in my opinion going RB, RB, RB in any league is pretty much recipe for disaster. Heck, the only way I'd go RB, RB, WR would be if I had a top-3 pick and someone like Forte fell to the end of the 2nd, which just won't ever happen.

 

Zero RB strategy, like any "strategy", involves some luck. But more than anything, it (and other strategies) require you weigh risk against upside, and charges you with mitigating risk.

[Grits and Shins]

I never really enter a draft with a preset "strategy" other than generally I take the best player available.

 

Having said that ...

 

I rarely take a QB before the middle rounds because the relative drop from the top QB to the 12th QB is not that significant -AND- it is incredibly difficult to predict from year to year which QBs will be the top 3 that might have been worth consideration for an earlier than normal pick.

 

I rarely take a DF before later in the draft for the same reason ... but it is even harder to predict defenses and easier to find defenses on the waiver wire.

 

Place kickers are late in the draft as well ... for the same reasons.

 

That leaves me looking to draft all my starting RBs, WRs, and TEs in general before the other positions. I want to draft players that will make a difference more than I am looking to draft a specific position. So if that means I go WR-WR-WR then so be it (I have done this). There really aren't enough RBs that I would ever start out RB-RB-RB.

[Avernus]

I never really enter a draft with a preset "strategy" other than generally I take the best player available.

 

Having said that ...

 

I rarely take a QB before the middle rounds because the relative drop from the top QB to the 12th QB is not that significant -AND- it is incredibly difficult to predict from year to year which QBs will be the top 3 that might have been worth consideration for an earlier than normal pick.

 

I rarely take a DF before later in the draft for the same reason ... but it is even harder to predict defenses and easier to find defenses on the waiver wire.

 

Place kickers are late in the draft as well ... for the same reasons.

 

That leaves me looking to draft all my starting RBs, WRs, and TEs in general before the other positions. I want to draft players that will make a difference more than I am looking to draft a specific position. So if that means I go WR-WR-WR then so be it (I have done this). There really aren't enough RBs that I would ever start out RB-RB-RB.

Exactly...and I have started rb-rb-rb before, with success....but that was like 8 years ago and more...

[ReturnToSender]

WR/QB/WR/WR/RB thats what I may do out of the 1 hole!!

 

Of course that means going Brown, then having Luck or Rodgers fall to me, other wise it's out the window!

Edited August 27, 2015 by ReturnToSender

[Richard1233]

I love the strategy. Finished last year's regular season with all 4 money leagues in first place and won 3 championships using the 0 rb strategy. I did it again this year, here is the link to my team.

http://forums.thehuddle.com/index.php?/topic/441393-0rb-theory-worked-last-year-did-it-again/#entry4083539

[ChampSampson]

I love the strategy. Finished last year's regular season with all 4 money leagues in first place and won 3 championships using the 0 rb strategy. I did it again this year, here is the link to my team.

http://forums.thehuddle.com/index.php?/topic/441393-0rb-theory-worked-last-year-did-it-again/#entry4083539

 

1) It can work better in 10-man leagues

2) Good luck with: Foster, Gurley, Tevin Coleman, Joique Bell, Ryan Matthews, and Duke Johnson

[ChampSampson]

i think of it as a pendulum. Several years ago when everybody was still going RB-RB out of habit, there was a HUGE edge going WR-WR in counter drafting. However; the pendulum is going heavy the other way, so I fin myself going RB-WR-RB quite a bit. Better speculative plays at WR to fill in a roster.

 

love Calvin Johnson this year as a WR in the 2nd round. Larry Fitz screams value at 6-7th round. Guys like Matthews, Mike Evans, Kennan Allen, Terrance Williams, etc, etc are all around and I have Stud/2RB by then.

 

It's pretty slim pickings at RB the other way around.

 

As mentioned before, the best draft strategy is an adaptive one. Draft what the other guys aren't; get value.

[Shorttynaz]

I've tried going WR heavy early these past few years and I haven't had much luck. Last year I had Megatron, D Thomas, TY Hilton, M Sanu, R Randle, & A Luck (I traded J Hill and V Cruz for TY Hilton in like week 4 or 5 - whatever week it was prior to Cruz going down for the remainder of the season). I traded for Hilton as Megatron was hurt and not sure on what his return timetable was.

 

The entire season I was nearly just streaming RBs with no luck. I made the playoffs - but was one and done. My RBs (that I can remember) were Sproles, Hill (traded away), Spiller, Asiata, B Oliver, D Herron. It was bru-tal.

 

All a matter of luck I suppose - but so far this year in 4 drafts I've tried my damnedest to make sure I have balance - not really giving me the warm and fuzzies so far..

Edited August 27, 2015 by Shorttynaz

[sksmith]

Wouldn't draft position play a sizable role? If you're in the back third of the draft chances are most of the 3-down RBs are gone and you're left w/ teams that run a split or full on RBBC. In that situation, I think considering going the WR-WR route more beneficial

[Richard1233]

 

1) It can work better in 10-man leagues

2) Good luck with: Foster, Gurley, Tevin Coleman, Joique Bell, Ryan Matthews, and Duke Johnson

Yeah I agree it works better in 10 man leagues but I also did really well in 3 12 man leagues last year 2 of 3 championships, 3rd place in the other. I wouldn't try it if I were in a 14 man league though. That's stretching it too thin at that point for rbs. Thanks, i am gonna need that luck with these rbs. I just hope one hits and maybe make a trade for a rb later in the season or hope foster comes back healthy sooner then expected. Last year I was stacked at wr an was able to trade cobb for forsett at the deadline and it worked out great, cobb had only 1 more td through our superbowl and forsett did just enough at rb for me to win it all in this league. Any strategy is a risky strategy however I choose this one cuz it works well for me.

[Richard1233]

Wouldn't draft position play a sizable role? If you're in the back third of the draft chances are most of the 3-down RBs are gone and you're left w/ teams that run a split or full on RBBC. In that situation, I think considering going the WR-WR route more beneficial

For most people it would matter. I drafted 5th and took gronk. I would have taken him #1 had I had the first pick. I was hoping 7 or 8, that would have been ideal but either way this year I am going gronk with my first pick in every league.

[keggerz]

WR/QBRB/WR/WR/RB thats what I may do out of the 1 hole!!

 

Of course that means going Brown, then having Luck or Rodgers fall to me, other wise it's out the window!

Fixed but even then I'd go RB at 1.1 and then hit WR/WR or RB/WR at the turn. QB can wait.

[keggerz]

For most people it would matter. I drafted 5th and took gronk. I would have taken him #1 had I had the first pick. I was hoping 7 or 8, that would have been ideal but either way this year I am going gronk with my first pick in every league.

If you have the ability to trade down in the those leagues you should look into it because you don't have to take Gronk 1.1 to own him.

[Grits and Shins]

I've tried going WR heavy early these past few years and I haven't had much luck. Last year I had Megatron, D Thomas, TY Hilton, M Sanu, R Randle, & A Luck (I traded J Hill and V Cruz for TY Hilton in like week 4 or 5 - whatever week it was prior to Cruz going down for the remainder of the season). I traded for Hilton as Megatron was hurt and not sure on what his return timetable was.

 

The entire season I was nearly just streaming RBs with no luck. I made the playoffs - but was one and done. My RBs (that I can remember) were Sproles, Hill (traded away), Spiller, Asiata, B Oliver, D Herron. It was bru-tal.

 

All a matter of luck I suppose - but so far this year in 4 drafts I've tried my damnedest to make sure I have balance - not really giving me the warm and fuzzies so far..

 

Last year I went WR-WR-RB-WR-TE-TE-QB

 

2nd round WR was a bust (Pierre Garcon)

4th round WR was a bust (Michael Crabtree)

6th round TE missed most of the year with injury (Dennis Pita)

 

I managed to win the Superbowl ... I can think of a couple of reasons:

1) My 1st round WR had a great year (Antonio Brown)

2) My 16th round WR had a great year (Odell Beckham)

3) My 11th round RB had a pretty decent year (Jeremy Hill)

4) My 5th round TE had a pretty decent year (Greg Olsen)

 

I also worked the waiver wire, like normal.

Edited August 27, 2015 by Grits and Shins

[Richard1233]

If you have the ability to trade down in the those leagues you should look into it because you don't have to take Gronk 1.1 to own him.

I don't have that option in any leagues or else I would trade down to 7 or 8. I think that's where I would prefer to be so I could get gronk later and get a better 2nd rd pick.

[Richard1233]

 

Last year I went WR-WR-RB-WR-TE-TE-QB

 

2nd round WR was a bust (Pierre Garcon)

4th round WR was a bust (Michael Crabtree)

6th round TE missed most of the year with injury (Dennis Pita)

 

I managed to win the Superbowl ... I can think of a couple of reasons:

1) My 1st round WR had a great year (Antonio Brown)

2) My 16th round WR had a great year (Odell Beckham)

3) My 11th round RB had a pretty decent year (Jeremy Hill)

4) My 5th round TE had a pretty decent year (Greg Olsen)

 

I also worked the waiver wire, like normal.

Sounds about right, I don't think anyone wins their league from their top 3 or top 5 picks. U win ur league when u have success drafting in the middle to late rounds and have a couple good waiver pick ups. Everyone is getting top talent with their top 3-5 picks. It's then up to whether or not they get hurt or stay healthy and how u work ur mid round picks and waiver claims.

[BA Baracus]

Paging Muto...

[InTomWeTrust]

I've done it before - with success - and have been doing it again this year... and will likely do it again.

 

But, as with all "strategies", you need not only a lot of luck (meaning not only avoiding killer injuries, but having a good number of your players outperform their ADP).

Agreed 100% Darin - keep your eye on Josh robinson man, I watched all his games as missisppi state and hes the third best running back in that draft , no joke.