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Brentastic

The Economy and Stock Market

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So you guys must think the worst is behind us?

 

Well, I pulled out late last week, so maybe it will continue to climb now. :wacko:

 

I don't know if 14k or 11k is next.

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So you guys must think the worst is behind us?

 

Well, define worst.... If you mean equities losing half their value in less than a year, yes I do for the near future.

 

I continue to think that the evidence suggests a long, slow, messy recovery which is exactly what we've experienced. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see the market pull back 10-15% this spring/summer either. For now, I will continue my strategy staying in the market for the long haul and buying the periodic fear-based dip.

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For the record, I'm still adamant that we're in the early stages of a depression and I still believe the stock market will reach lower levels than we saw in 2008-2009. Unlike the Great Depression, however, I think this depression is going to be long and drawn out, possibly lasting several decades, and I think the globality of it is the reason for such a drawn-out process.

 

I still think we'll see DOW 5k and possibly lower in the coming years. When will this all unfold? Well, I think it's been a slow trickle and since stocks are the investment tool for amateurs, I think the stock market will be the last to show it's true value. The stock market could stay afloat for another year or two (or 3) but I still think the downside risk is MUCH greater than the upside potential and I wouldn't buy any stock at this time simply because the bottom could fall out at any moment without warning. If you study the times when the market has large corrections - it happens fast and furiously without warning. The stock market is basically net sideways for the last 10 years and I don't see much more upside in the near future.

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The stock market is basically net sideways for the last 10 years and I don't see much more upside in the near future.

 

The Dow has gained about 3,100 points since Feruary 2002 - more than a 30% increase over the last 10 years.

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The Dow has gained about 3,100 points since Feruary 2002 - more than a 30% increase over the last 10 years.

 

 

Thank you George Bush.

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I'm still willing to bet Brent or anyone either $1500 or one ounce of gold (your choice) that the Dow won't hit 5000 between now and 2017.

 

Step up.

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I'm still willing to bet Brent or anyone either $1500 or one ounce of gold (your choice) that the Dow won't hit 5000 between now and 2017.

 

Step up.

 

That is a damn enticing bet :wacko:

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I read somewhere that over 100 top managers, officers, and board members have resigned from top banks around the world over the past six months. 20 of which did so in the past few weeks.

 

If that's true, what's up with that?

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That is a damn enticing bet :wacko:

 

 

And the best part is, if it gets close (say, dow 5500), you can sell puts on the SPY and hedge the crap out of it.

So is it a bet?

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30% over 10 years is only about 2.75% CAGR. Thank you George Bush.

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And the best part is, if it gets close (say, dow 5500), you can sell puts on the SPY and hedge the crap out of it.

So is it a bet?

 

So is the deadline Dec 31, 2017?

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So is the deadline Dec 31, 2017?

 

I was thinking March 1st to make it a 5 year bet, but if you like, we can split the difference and make it September 1st, 2017.

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If we saw the dow hit 5000 then I would think the dow:gold ratio would be somewhere around 1:1 due to the circumstances which I just don't see happening and I would expect a whole new monetary system before that even happens...

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dow wont tank until after elections, but it will tank in the sooner rather than later.

 

id invest heavily for the next 10-12 months and cash up after they stop inflating the market

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dow wont tank until after elections, but it will tank in the sooner rather than later.

 

id invest heavily for the next 10-12 months and cash up after they stop inflating the market

 

Although I'm no longer in the business of trying to predict when the market will tank, I tend to agree here.

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If we saw the dow hit 5000 then I would think the dow:gold ratio would be somewhere around 1:1 due to the circumstances which I just don't see happening and I would expect a whole new monetary system before that even happens...

 

At the 2009 lows we weren't too far from DOW 5000. It can certainly get there if we see another crash which I think we will. Once everyone sees the reality of deflation setting in, it will fall hard and fast.

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At the 2009 lows we weren't too far from DOW 5000. It can certainly get there if we see another crash which I think we will. Once everyone sees the reality of deflation setting in, it will fall hard and fast.

 

 

And yet you won't bet me on it. C'mon dude. Book my bet.

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I have to say a bet that won't be realized for 5 years is a first for me. I think the wager should be made a part of each parties estate plan. Just in case Brentastic's yarn beard get's caught in a door of the "L" and he gets decapitated or something.

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And yet you won't bet me on it. C'mon dude. Book my bet.

 

Well it's a tough and pointless bet to make. First of all, I already have bets in the market. Secondly, if I win that means we're in a depression which means nobody really wins and you might not be able to pay. If I lose, I lose twice since I have long-term bets against the market. As much as I want to make the bet, it would be for all the wrong reasons.

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Well it's a tough and pointless bet to make. First of all, I already have bets in the market. Secondly, if I win that means we're in a depression which means nobody really wins and you might not be able to pay. If I lose, I lose twice since I have long-term bets against the market. As much as I want to make the bet, it would be for all the wrong reasons.

 

 

I assure you my side of the bet would never have been the problem. As to your other points, I respect them, and mirror them from the other side. I also have bets on the market, in that I'm (for the most part) long. So, I withdraw my offer. But if you ever change your mind. . .

 

And I hope you haven't been short since last October. . .that would be a world of pain.

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Not sure what's up with the font of my last post. . . :oldunsure:

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I assure you my side of the bet would never have been the problem. As to your other points, I respect them, and mirror them from the other side. I also have bets on the market, in that I'm (for the most part) long. So, I withdraw my offer. But if you ever change your mind. . .

 

And I hope you haven't been short since last October. . .that would be a world of pain.

 

Sounds good. Like I said, as a gambling man, it's tempting but also stupid. Stupid bets are not profitable in the long-run. Glad you understand, I'll keep the bet in mind for future consideration.

 

I have been short off and on for nearly a year but I've been in and out and nimble like a cheetah, so I haven't lost any money. I keep trying to pick a top but am very cautious about my entry points and always have tight stops.

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Stock market is at its highest point in four years. Thank you, quantiative easing!

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Stock market is at its highest point in four years. Thank you, quantiative easing!

 

 

:rofl:

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