The Economy and Stock Market

[wiegie]

If 2 people make a similar prediction, especially a prediction that 99% don't agree with, and that prediction comes true - who are you to say one method of deriving said prediction is flawed over the other? There are many ways to solve a problem - mathematically speaking, there are several ways to solve a problem but if the correct answer is derived accross various methods, who are you to denounce one method while praising another?

I mark students wrong all of the time who ended up with the right answer but derived it via incorrect methods.

 

Example: x = 2*2 - 3. What is x?

 

student A: 2*2 = 4; 4-3 = 1; hence x=1

student B: 2*2=17; 17-3 = 1; hence x=1

 

Both got the right answer, but only one of the students knows what the hell he is talking about..

 

And especially if you don't even understand the method you are discrediting?!?!?

For the love of God, man, I understand the idea behind Elliot Wave Hypothesis. Quit acting that the only reason why people don't agree with you is because they aren't smart enough to understand what you are saying. We get it--it's just we think it is garbage

 

I do know what I'm talking about, I've been talking about deflation since last year and finally we are starting to hear deflation rumblings by 'experts'.

uh, do a search and see which people here were talking about the possibility of deflation LONG before you said anything about it.

[Azazello1313]

One final comment - I find it annoying that Azz, who maybe has 2 posts out of the entire 18 pages, comes in here at the end of all the fireworks and tries to spark more flames - THAT is immature, self-serving and way too easy. Azz, you try so hard to be the staple of all-knowingness here at the huddle but your game is predictible and boring. The only thing you've proven to me is that you were probably on the debate team in high school and that you gain strength and ingratiate yourself through other's weaknesses - these are traits of a coward. Out of all the 'bigger voices' here, you are the king of belittlement.

 

it's belittling and cowardly to call you out on a gutless accusation randomly aimed at everyone who doesn't agree with your kookoo bullmanure? suit yourself, brent.

[Atlanta Cracker]

Brent, I don't think you see that most everyone agrees with most of your predictions to some extent. Maybe not quite the depths and definitely not the methods of arriving at them. So if it's as you say and it doesn't matter the method for achieving the answer what's the point of arguing over the method?

[wiegie]

Especially if you did not get the answer right yourself?!?!

uh, for what reason can you say that I did not get the answer right myself?

 

I'll submit the following for you to peruse (note the date and go back and take a look at what other people were saying at the time--I'lso note that at the time of my post the unemployment rate was still 6.6%):

I'm not claiming to be smarter than anybody by a long-shot, but I am very worried about the overall labor market. I would be very happily surprised if unemployment rates topped out at under 8% and I would not be overly shocked if they actually went above 10%. And I think the poor labor market is going to be around for at least a year if not longer. (I am somewhat of a pessimist at heart, but I have told my siblings, who are in procyclical industries, that they really need to be prepared for the worst.)

[Brentastic]

I find it very ironic that this topic was started the day of the lowest point for the dow this year. Could we see a new low point sometime next week? Sure it could. But from 2/8 to 4/26, the Dow gained almost 1300 points. That is a 1300 point gain that was realized or a 1300 point gain that you didn't accept in a risky market. That is a jump of 13% in less than three months. Now the Dow has found its way back down to the 2/8 level of under 10K again. Maybe the Markets climb a bit again or maybe they descend a bit more.

 

That's how the market works when it's reaching the apex of it's extreme (in this case bullish behavior) - the price quickly accelerates to new highs. The exact same thing happened in gold late last week - gold had a overly-ambitious climb to new highs the last few days of last week. I even pointed out the possibility of a top in gold last Friday when gold was near 1250. Right now, gold is trading at 1177, down about 70 points from then.

 

My point is this, unless you cashed out after that 1300 point rally, it doesn't mean anything to investors because that full 1300 point move was wiped out in 2 weeks. Investors who were long weren't anticipating a down move - if they were, they would be cashing out. So what does that 1300 point move do for you the investor? Again, nothing unless you cashed out for a profit. Trying to predict the exact top or bottom is a tough game to play. The more important thing to do is determine if we're in a bull market or a bear market - then act accordingly. If by next year this time, the dow is trading at 5k or 6k - do you think I'm going to look back at my post on 2/8/2010 and be upset that I didn't call the top at that time? Of course not, the important thing is that I prepared myself for a bigger more important move.

[Chief Dick]

Bought my Busch Light today.

 

It was surprisingly easy, much like the smooth refreshing flavor.

 

Beer > Economics Talk

[MikesVikes]

I cashed out for a profit at the end of April.

[Brentastic]

uh, for what reason can you say that I did not get the answer right myself?

 

I'll submit the following for you to peruse (note the date and go back and take a look at what other people were saying at the time--I'lso note that at the time of my post the unemployment rate was still 6.6%):

Wait, you're trying to compare what you and others said in the fall of 2008, during the HEART of the panic - to what I said last summer during the HEART of the rally, a rally where everyone was convinced that the worst was behind us?!?!? Even more, you've done nothing but criticize my calls for deflation over the last 3 months but now that the market is showing it's true colors, you suddenly have evidence that you've been calling it all along?!?! That's bold.

[Chief Dick]

That's bold.

 

Like the flavor of a smooth, easy drinking Busch Light.

[Brentastic]

I cashed out for a profit at the end of April.

GREAT timing. So what are you arguing with me about then

[CaP'N GRuNGe]

Like the flavor of a smooth, easy drinking Busch Light.

 

[Azazello1313]

Wait, you're trying to compare what you and others said in the fall of 2008, during the HEART of the panic - to what I said last summer during the HEART of the rally, a rally where everyone was convinced that the worst was behind us?!?!?

 

the dow is still up four figures since last summer. you sure called it!

[Brentastic]

it's belittling and cowardly to call you out on a gutless accusation randomly aimed at everyone who doesn't agree with your kookoo bullmanure? suit yourself, brent.

Anybody who can read understands nothing was aimed at people who simply don't agree with me. Your game is over-played and boring. Hit me up when you become more inventive. Posting 1/2 truths and buzz words is easy to do and reeks of cowardliness.

[bushwacked]

Like the flavor of a smooth, easy drinking Busch Light.

 

[Duchess Jack]

Anybody who can read understands nothing was aimed at people who simply don't agree with me. Your game is over-played and boring. Hit me up when you become more inventive. Posting 1/2 truths and buzz words is easy to do and reeks of cowardliness.

 

• It's nice to know that more than 2 people on these boards have the balls to contradict the herd.

• As you have noticed, most keep silent or pile on to gain favoritism from the 'majority' of the huddle.

• Most on here are the type of people who stand around and do nothing while someone is getting raped or robbed.

 

 

okay... throw me a bone. It is clear to me that you were not going after just the people who disagreed with you because 'most' of the huddle has not posted in this thread. what I am unclear on is what your criteria is for attacking the 'majority' of the huddle - or - if my reading comprehension doesn't fail me - potentially all but 3 huddlers.

[dmarc117]

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_YOa1xSkWscM/ReMt...s1092318449.jpg

[Brentastic]

the dow is still up four figures since last summer. you sure called it!

There you go with 1/2 truths again. Reading comprehension is your friend, use it. Please point out where I said the market would begin it's decline last year (post from last May)? Hint: read the bolded part below and keep in mind at the time of the post below, the dow was around 8200 and climbing.

 

I agree with that assesment. Which is why I said earlier that I think the DOW could go below 1,000 sometime in the next 10 years. I think we are entering a deflationary depression. No one ever points the finger at the Federal Reserve - but I think Greenspan has as much to do with all of this than anybody. You can't continually 'band-aid' the economy by lowering rates and forcing money supply everytime the economy slips. Sometimes you just need to let the free market work itself out. Boom and busts are a direct result of forced demand (by forcing an increase in money supply) and over-valuation of markets. The economy has yet to really collapse and the recent uptrend in the markets the last few months is the calm before the storm. I think the DOW could reach 10,000 and then it will absolutely tank. It might not go all the way down below 1,000 but I bet it gets close.

[bpwallace49]

\. Azz, you try so hard to be the staple of all-knowingness here at the huddle but your game is predictible and boring. The only thing you've proven to me is that you were probably on the debate team in high school and that you gain strength and ingratiate yourself through other's weaknesses - these are traits of a coward. Out of all the 'bigger voices' here, you are the king of belittlement.

 

Brent . . . you have convinced me of your correctnes based on this post alone. I <3 Brent . . .

 

[Azazello1313]

There you go with 1/2 truths again. Reading comprehension is your friend, use it. Please point out where I said the market would begin it's decline last year (post from last May)? Hint: read the bolded part below and keep in mind at the time of the post below, the dow was around 8200 and climbing.

QUOTE (Brentastic @ 5/15/09 2:14pm)

I agree with that assesment. Which is why I said earlier that I think the DOW could go below 1,000 sometime in the next 10 years. I think we are entering a deflationary depression. No one ever points the finger at the Federal Reserve - but I think Greenspan has as much to do with all of this than anybody. You can't continually 'band-aid' the economy by lowering rates and forcing money supply everytime the economy slips. Sometimes you just need to let the free market work itself out. Boom and busts are a direct result of forced demand (by forcing an increase in money supply) and over-valuation of markets. The economy has yet to really collapse and the recent uptrend in the markets the last few months is the calm before the storm. I think the DOW could reach 10,000 and then it will absolutely tank. It might not go all the way down below 1,000 but I bet it gets close.

 

 

and it's still above 10,000. you know, you might want to wait until some of your predictions actually come to fruition before you start trumpeting how right you were. because so far, even with yesterday, you're completely dead f'ing wrong. close to 1000, huh...I'd ask if you want to put your money where your mouth is on that, but I already know the answer.

[MikesVikes]

GREAT timing. So what are you arguing with me about then

 

Because I can?

 

I think that the world, including the USA, would have to be a lawless, out of control, day in and day out full-blown rioting earth before the markets could crash as severe as you say that it will or can be. Year 2K is come and gone and most of us lived to tell about it. That's how I roll.

[wiegie]

Wait, you're trying to compare what you and others said in the fall of 2008,

I note that very few other people were suggesting that double-digit unemployment was possible even in the midst of the crisis. (For example, the median forecast of participants at a November 2008 economic outlook symposium at the Chicao Fed for 2009 was 7.8%.) (I'll also note that I am on public record at a panel discussion on the economy held six weeks earlier than that saying that unemployment could hit double-digits--and this was at a time that many people weren't even acknowledging that we were in a recession.)

 

Even more, you've done nothing but criticize my calls for deflation over the last 3 months but now that the market is showing it's true colors, you suddenly have evidence that you've been calling it all along?!?! That's bold.

Show me where I have criticized anyone's concerns about deflation. I have definitely criticized your predictions of a market collapse (as well as your use of the Elliot Wave Hypothesis), but I have never said that deflation wasn't a concern.

Edited May 21, 2010 by wiegie

[wiegie]

I still say Silver is the stronger play between the two,

time to give credit where credit is due:

 

http://www.woodtv.com/dpps/news/strange/17...ion-jgr_3370250

[Avernus]

time to give credit where credit is due:

 

http://www.woodtv.com/dpps/news/strange/17...ion-jgr_3370250

 

numismatic value, I'll take what I can get from these boards

[wiegie]

numismatic value, I'll take what I can get from these boards

I was hoping you'd find it amusing.

[TimC]

Like the flavor of a smooth, easy drinking Busch Light.

 

There's nothing like a cold, smooth Busch Light after walking away from a rape and/or robbery.