ABearWithFurniture

Dynasty/rookie drafts

101 posts in this topic

 

Howard over Dixon and Coleman? Weird.

 

I don't know...Langford is more of a 3rd down back IMO. Howard's skill set is more 1st and 2nd down move the chains...and the limited work he's had in the passing game has looked pretty solid in the past. Still, think they could have waited as he looks to be going around the 20's in most of the drafts I have seen. I think he's the David Johnson of this year's draft though...got sleeper and upside written all over him, with not that much in front of him for carries. Think he will definitely be given opportunities from the get-go.

Edited by ABearWithFurniture

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I don't know...Langford is more of a 3rd down back IMO. Howard's skill set is more 1st and 2nd down move the chains...and the limited work he's had in the passing game has looked pretty solid in the past. Still, think they could have waited as he looks to be going around the 20's in most of the drafts I have seen. I think he's the David Johnson of this year's draft though...got sleeper and upside written all over him, with not that much in front of him for carries. Think he will definitely be given opportunities from the get-go.

 

Agreed that the Bears are not exactly blown away by Langford but I wouldn't call him exclusively a 3rd down back. He's a back that would probably operate best in a timeshare, which is exactly why they opted to draft Howard.... who, himself, is a back that needs to be in a timeshare. This is a situation I'll totally avoid in redraft and chose to ignore in dynasty formats too.

 

DIS-agree, however, that Howard is this year's David Johnson. David Johnson is capable of playing all three downs and came in backing up a 30-ish year old Chris Johnson.

 

If, by some miracle, Howard is able to add some wiggle and pass-catching to his game, he may overtake Langford. For right now, at least from this Bear fan's angle, it doesn't look likely.

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You could be right...Howard did struggle with pass-protection and picking up blitzes in college, but that is something most rookies have to get better at anyways.

 

Johnson came in backing up Ellington...think Chris came in later.

Edited by ABearWithFurniture

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I took Howard because I had Langford. Will probably stash both on taxi and let it shake itself out.

 

I dynasty like I go to the dentist. Angst and pain.

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Here are some stats from reddit(credit to ice1wiz for compiling) concerning Langford vs Matt Jones as the dynasty community seems to love Jones a whole lot more. I don't understand the Langford hate and I feel like he passed my eye test


  • They were selected 9 choices apart in the 2015 draft.
  • Both are projected starters whose teams selected late round competition with talent (Marshall in the 7th for Jones, Howard in the 5th for Langford).
  • Jones averaged 3.4 ypc on 144 totes; Langford 3.6 ypc on 146 carries
  • One complaint of Langford is that he averaged only 3.0 ypc vs "standard" fronts. While I don't have those stats, do see that he averaged 3.4 ypc on 1st down. Jones averaged 2.7 ypc on 1st down.
  • Jones averaged 2.7 ypc over his last 5 games on 59 carries; Langford 4.1 ypc over his last 5 on 58 carries.
  • Jones had 94 yards receiving his last 5 games; Langford 47.
  • Jones caught 19/25 targets for 305 yards (16 ypc); Langford 22/42 targets for 279 yards (14 ypc). Langford was dreadful turning targets into production while Jones was very efficient.
  • Jones scored 3 TDs; Langford 6 TDs.
  • Jones fumbled 5 times; Langford didn't fumble.
  • Jones was last in Football Outsiders efficiency for qualifiers with DVOA of -24% (gained 482 yards but only 382 expected yards); Langford was #10 with a DVOA of 12.2% (gained 537 actual yards but 690 effective yards)
  • Jones turned 10 "and goal" carries into -3 yards and no TDs. Langford turned 10 "and goal" carries into 22 yards and 5 TDs

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Yeah, here's all I need to know:

 

- Bears rumored to take RB as high as mid-1st (Zeke), and reports are they want to get Ka'Deem Carey more touches

- Bears select a RB that fits the John Fox offense to a tee

- Redskins take a flier on a workout wonder in the second-to-last round

 

Thanks, reddit, for continuing to be a consortium of near-useless factoids! :tup:

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Im not sure how its useless lol while we're at it lets pretend like 5th/6th/7th rounders become starters very often and nfl rumors are always true. Im not saying Howard won't have a chance to compete for touches but as of right now he's behind Langford and Carey who are entering their 2nd and 3rd year. Barring an injury, I just dont see the reps being there for a 5th rounder but if you do then you should probably draft Keith Marshall too.

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Chicago tried very hard to get cj Anderson. Their offer was a little better than Miami's.

 

what a team does in the draft doesn't change how the feel about a veteran, for better or worse

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I tend to grade rookies on three things...talent, team, and opportunity. Howard has shown he has talent and is a hard runner, and with the Bears he gets a team that loves to run the ball and do the short-to-intermediate roll-outs and screens. Plus, the players ahead of him all have, at least, a few issues, thus opportunity. Not saying he's a definite lock but the circumstances are right for him to get playing time.

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I tend to grade rookies on three things...talent, team, and opportunity. Howard has shown he has talent and is a hard runner, and with the Bears he gets a team that loves to run the ball and do the short-to-intermediate roll-outs and screens. Plus, the players ahead of him all have, at least, a few issues, thus opportunity. Not saying he's a definite lock but the circumstances are right for him to get playing time.

 

I think you're right for the most part, but I would add a fourth (and perhaps most critical) construct: how the player fits today's NFL landscape.

 

In Howard's case, he has shown complete absence from the bolded in your post. In that regard, it limits his effectiveness as fantasy asset. If nothing else, he is a Stephen Davis clone - who of course John Fox absolutely made a name for in Carolina - but the game has changed. If you can't catch the ball, your snaps are going to be reduced.

 

Maybe Howard is a fast learner and not only picks up pass protection, but has sneaky good hands and is able to catch the ball out of the backfield and turn-and-go. To me, though, with less-than-fluid hips and not much wiggle, the possibility of this being the case is negligible.

 

That all said, he may prove useful as a RB3 or perhaps even a RB2 if he's given enough carries and is a TD machine.

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Langford > Jones in all formats IMO

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Langford > Jones in all formats IMO

and Fox does heavily prefer veterans over rookies.

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I still have a few zealots dynasty leagues in my cache of dynasties, one of the guys there, puts this together. Zealots has about 70 leagues 12 team dynasties running, with half being ppr, but otherwise fairly standard scoring, Although they tend to be rb lovers (see my previous draft link) the listing below is an availability probability utility from all their rookie drafts that automatically updates hourly from all drafts (some of the leagues have yet to start

 

http://dev.nflprophet.com/zf_chart.htm

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That'd be cool if I weren't color blind

 

First I couldn't be a fighter pilot, now I can't improve my FF draft strategy!

 

*curses the gods*

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That'd be cool if I weren't color blind

 

First I couldn't be a fighter pilot, now I can't improve my FF draft strategy!

 

*curses the gods*

 

 

Its in black and white for me too and I'm normal. ;)

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I thought that was a rorschach test...

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That'd be cool if I weren't color blind

 

First I couldn't be a fighter pilot, now I can't improve my FF draft strategy!

 

*curses the gods*

 

If you scroll over the name and pick, it will tell you the chances of that player being available at any given draft spot ie : pick 2 zeke 0% chance

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*curses the gods again for Zeke's 0% chance availability at my 1.02 spot*

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*curses the gods again for Zeke's 0% chance availability at my 1.02 spot*

 

In those particular leagues. I think on MFL's ADP I saw that there was a 0.00000000000001% chance. :woot:

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I actually did see one draft where Henry went 1.01. Maybe the league multiplies score by weight? :thinking:

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I actually did see one draft where Henry went 1.01. Maybe the league multiplies score by weight? :thinking:

In that draft the same owner had both the 1.01 and the 1.02 and decided to screw with everyone's ADP.

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In those particular leagues. I think on MFL's ADP I saw that there was a 0.00000000000001% chance. :woot:

 

Lloyd Christmas likes this.

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