Henry Muto

FTSA Experts Draft

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https://www.rtsports.com/football/draft-board.php?LID=106430&UID=fantasyfootball&CONF=0&X=1529442835895

 

14 of the greatest fantasy football experts in the land do battle in the FTSA Experts league.

 

Tom and Greg from the NFFC are the defending champs.

 

This is a straight 1 PPR all positions league.  Some very interesting strategies and picks in this.

 

The great Mike Clay goes zero RB and lands Lynch as his 1st RB.

 

The Huddle's Bonini brothers drew the 12 slot of this 14 team draft and started off with WR/WR with Michael Thomas and Davante Adams.

 

Discuss.

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I like Michael Thomas and Davante Adams at 12 and 17.  They both have virtually a zero percent chance of busting.

 

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By the time they picked, there were 8 RBs already taken. And Brown, Hopkins and Beckham were gone. Not a great spot. WR had the best value IMO and I think going Henry, Guice and Michel in R3, R4 and R5 weren't too bad. At least there is some upside in each RB. Risk too as rookies.

 

The back end of R1 isn't as advantageous this year.  I think there are 6 RB and 3 WR that offer proven elite stats. By pick ten, the risk just starts to rise.

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Just now, DMD said:

 

I think going Henry, Guice and Michel in R3, R4 and R5 weren't too bad. At least there is some upside in each RB. Risk too as rookies.

 

 

Derrick Henry at #40 is not a good pick.  A running back who doesn't get receptions has a ceiling of RB2.  Henry has had 11 and 13 receptions the last two seasons.  But he probably won't even be a RB2 because he will likely play second fiddle to Dion Lewis.  The Titans didn't give Lewis $8.25 million guaranteed to be a complimentary player.  Unless Lewis gets hurt, Henry will probably gets stats similar to last year when he played 39.92% of snaps and was the 37th highest scoring fantasy running back.

 

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9 hours ago, michaelredd9 said:

 

Derrick Henry at #40 is not a good pick.  A running back who doesn't get receptions has a ceiling of RB2.  Henry has had 11 and 13 receptions the last two seasons.  But he probably won't even be a RB2 because he will likely play second fiddle to Dion Lewis.  The Titans didn't give Lewis $8.25 million guaranteed to be a complimentary player.  Unless Lewis gets hurt, Henry will probably gets stats similar to last year when he played 39.92% of snaps and was the 37th highest scoring fantasy running back.

 

 

Ya but who you picking at that point?  Can't really fault the thinking there too much as you're staring at depleted options and a glaring whole on the roster.  Anything drafted at this point is probably at best an RB2 anyways.  May help to know the starting reqs for the league, if it requires 2 RB than Henry is not a bad call. 

 

And just to note, looking at last year stats and PFF rankings is all well and good but they're better helping forecast consistent situations.  With unknowns such as Vrabel and LaFleur now in charge, predicating anything with Henry based on last years numbers is murky at best.  

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Posted (edited)
20 hours ago, Def. said:

 

Ya but who you picking at that point?  Can't really fault the thinking there too much as you're staring at depleted options and a glaring whole on the roster.  Anything drafted at this point is probably at best an RB2 anyways.  May help to know the starting reqs for the league, if it requires 2 RB than Henry is not a bad call. 

 

And just to note, looking at last year stats and PFF rankings is all well and good but they're better helping forecast consistent situations.  With unknowns such as Vrabel and LaFleur now in charge, predicating anything with Henry based on last years numbers is murky at best.  

 

RB2 is Henry's best case scenario in the event Dion Lewis gets hurt.  Henry projects as a RB3 or less.  And the Vrabel factor does not work in Henry's favor.  Vrabel might have even asked for Jon Robinson to sign Dion Lewis.  I wouldn't pick Derrick Henry in the seventh round.  Fortunately, Dion is a small guy so Henry will probably keep his receptionless 40% of snaps.

 

Edited by michaelredd9

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6 hours ago, michaelredd9 said:

 

RB2 is Henry's best case scenario in the event Dion Lewis gets hurt.  Henry projects as a RB3 or less.  And the Vrabel factor does not work in Henry's favor.  Vrabel might have even asked for Jon Robinson to sign Dion Lewis.  I wouldn't pick Derrick Henry in the seventh round.  Fortunately, Dion is a small guy so Henry will probably keep his receptionless 40% of snaps.

 

 

Listen, I'm not trying to defend Henry but if you want conversation about it I can only reiterate what I've stated above.  Who would you be picking at that point?  What good is basing this 40% rate off statistics from different coaching systems?  How are you coming up with these projections?  If you're just doubling down on the position that's all well and good then too though. 

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22 minutes ago, Def. said:

 

Listen, I'm not trying to defend Henry but if you want conversation about it I can only reiterate what I've stated above.  Who would you be picking at that point?  What good is basing this 40% rate off statistics from different coaching systems?  How are you coming up with these projections?  If you're just doubling down on the position that's all well and good then too though. 

 

I would select Brandin Cooks.  They would have not signed Dion Lewis to a lucrative contract if the new coaching regime was planning on featuring Derrick Henry.

 

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I don't think people know what TEN plans to do exactly with the Dion Lewis and Derrick Henry split. It is interesting that Lewis seems to be going a couple of rounds later than Henry pretty consistently. For that reason, I love Lewis' value a lot more.

 

As for the rest of the Huddle team, it's pretty solid. I really like pairing ASJ and Clay at TE. I think they probably would have been better off passing on Jordy Nelson and drafting their QB of choice instead (Brady, Wentz, etc.). Love Cameron Meredith in the 10th. He could have standalone value but is kind of a Michael Thomas handcuff. The Mike Williams pick seems optimistic to me, but maybe he does emerge. Overall, nice job!

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Amari Cooper in the 2nd, and Fuller in the 4th were head scratchers for me personally.

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David Johnson and Kamara before Barkley. I see Johnson and Barkley as a tossup but not with Kamara.

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Glad to see my local team should have four 1st/2nd round players this year. :tu:

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Ooops, one only drafted Winston as their QB.  

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2 hours ago, MikesVikes said:

Good Value with Matt Ryan pick.

 

How so?  Even if he went in the 8th last year that was a complete bust pick.  I don't think we see Shanny's Matt Ryan from 2016 again.

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3 hours ago, kdko said:

 

How so?  Even if he went in the 8th last year that was a complete bust pick.  I don't think we see Shanny's Matt Ryan from 2016 again.

Well it definitely looks like a good year to wait on a QB after looking at it again. There are some decent QBs still available after Ryan was taken.

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4 hours ago, MikesVikes said:

Well it definitely looks like a good year to wait on a QB after looking at it again. There are some decent QBs still available after Ryan was taken.

It's always a good year to wait on QB. 

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The top quarterbacks are good value in this draft.  Aaron Rodgers at pick 55 and Russell Wilson at pick 57 are great value.  The legitimate tier 1 and tier 2 running backs and wide receivers are gone at that point in the draft.  I'll gladly take a top 2 quarterback over a tier 3 running back or wide receiver.  But if I miss out on Rodgers or Wilson, I can't see drafting a quarterback before round 11 or 12.  There are about 15 tier 2 and tier 3 quarterbacks without much value difference between them.  I'll take whoever is left over.  In this draft, Ben Roethlisberger in round 11 and Marcus Mariota in round 13 would have been good options.

 

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8 hours ago, michaelredd9 said:

In this draft, Ben Roethlisberger in round 11 and Marcus Mariota in round 13 would have been good options.

 

 

Mariota has real upside this year. He didn't seem fully healthy last year (early on for sure), and he gets a new coach and scheme (Mularkey's offense was too vanilla) along with another year of maturity for the young duo of Davis and Taylor at WR. And Dion Lewis. I wouldn't be surprised if he finished as a lower end QB1, though I think his ceiling is maybe 8th overall. His running/scrambling is going to make a difference. He is currently falling around the #17 QB taken in PPR 12-team mocks.

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Posted (edited)

i like the bonini team alot...although i agree with others....while i like henrys potential i think id have felt better if he had gone penny there...and ended up with penny, guice and michel......some people might be scared by that but not me...im not afraid or rookie rbs ...in fact last year in a high stakes ppr league i went julio, cmac, dalvin with my first 3 picks...also took kamara in the 13th and cohen in the 15th(with a different coaching staff that would have been a good pick too)...had a good team even though julio underwhelmed and i lost cook early...could have maybe been a league winning team

 

i also like rotowires first 8 rounds!

Edited by forever in debt to mo lewis

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