keggerz Posted August 18, 2006 Share Posted August 18, 2006 (edited) In this thread Brentastic wanted me to do Wayne/Harrison but I said that Jax would be a bit easier to do....hard to figure for how age will effect marvin this yr coupled with edge leaving town... Ok so here goes how I broke down and came up with the projections for the Jax WRs I again looked at the previous 3 yrs Offensive Plays Ran: 2003:1024(plays were exactly 50% run vs pass) 2004: 991(51.8% were passing plays) 2005:1021(47.4% were passing plays) 3yrAVG: 1012(49.7% were passing plays) I am using 1000 plays for my 2006 projections so if anything you can add a smidge to my projections I am also going to use 50% passing to rushing plays...2005 was the 1st time in 3yrs there was a less then balanced attack on offense...with Fred Taylor a yr older and no true replacement I am going to use 50% as a baseline but I thin that this yr it could swing to 52% on passing plays) PASSING STATS: 2003: 302/512 3389yds compl%58.9% 2004: 305/513 3315yds compl%59.5% 2005: 281/484 3340yds compl%58.1% going to use 59% as a completion% for the projections RECVNG STATS: 2003: WR1=72/1073*(23.8% of completions/31.7% of yds) WR2=35/487(11.6% of completions/14.4% of yds) 3rd best recvr was a RB(Freddy) *Jimmy was suspended for the 1st 4 games so I extrapolated out his season to a full 16 games) 2004: WR1=74/1172(24.3% of completions/35.4% of yds) WR2=50/533(16.4% of completions/16.1% of yds) 3rd best recvr was a RB(Freddy) 2005: WR1=70/1023(24.9% of completions/30.6% of yds) WR2=41/681(14.6% of completions/20.4% of yds) WR3=35/445(12.5% of completions/13.3% of yds) OK so those are the stats that I used to come up with the projections There are a couple of variable that I factored in(my opinion of course): 1. The Jags werent very deep at Recvr in 03 & 04 2. Jimmy Smith passing the torch and all the other WRs are starting to step up but just as much as Freddy is getting old too...a key player that could change the WR3 numbers would be Drew but I am going to assume that the #3 WR is actually the 3rd best recvr again in 2006. 2006 Projections: 1000 offensive plays(split 50/50 run/pass) PASSING 59% Completion % 295 Completions 500 Attempts 3400 Passing Yards(since Smith is gone and the Recvng corp has a better RAC ability I am giving an uptick in passing yards...but note this would be a team high for the last 4 yrs..the 3yr avg is 3348yds) RECVNG WR1 stats will =24% of completions and 33% of passing yards WR2 stats will =15% of completions and 18% of passing yards WR3 stats will =13% of completions and 13% of passing yards(this was the hardest to guage) So that means that the JAX Recvng stats will be: WR1=72/1122 WR2=45/612 WR3=39/442 as for who is WR1, 2 or 3 well that is for you to figure out...if a true #1 doesnt step up then the numbers could very well even out more between the 3 WRs.... hope someone finds that this helps if not Edited August 18, 2006 by keggerz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonorator Posted August 18, 2006 Share Posted August 18, 2006 from jaguars.com ... The most high-profile evaluations will occur at wide receiver, where the big story going into training camp was the quest to develop a young receiving corps and identify a number one receiver to replace the departed Jimmy Smith. Now, the question is: Should the Jaguars trade for a veteran wide receiver? “I think it would be a mistake to do anything but continue to develop our guys right now,” Del Rio said, giving his young wide receivers a vote of confidence. “The group is showing progress. We have an explosive quality. They are talented young players that need time to develop.” What about a number one receiver? “I can't anoint a guy in week two of the preseason. Somebody is going to get the ball and we will have developed that guy,” Del Rio said. “You're talking about who's your go-to guy? We don't have a proven go-to guy on this team so there's going to be angst. We believe in the process of bringing in talented people and driving them through competition,” he added. so there is no help whatsoever for you ... jones seems to be consistently going over wilford in most drafts i've seen, despite the huddle projections. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted August 18, 2006 Author Share Posted August 18, 2006 from jaguars.com ... so there is no help whatsoever for you ... jones seems to be consistently going over wilford in most drafts i've seen, despite the huddle projections. i have NO CLUE who is going to be their #1 WR but if you get lucky and your dart lands on the right one then you should have a very solid WR. So GOOD LUCK with that dart Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxfactor Posted August 18, 2006 Share Posted August 18, 2006 I think Mercedes Lewis could have been the #3 WR stats, but a high ankle sprain(sometimes worse than a broken ankle) ended that. I may take a flyer on Matt Jones or Ernest Wilford, but pretty much am thinking of staying away from this. Thanks for the work you put into this though keggerz. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt770 Posted August 18, 2006 Share Posted August 18, 2006 i have NO CLUE who is going to be their #1 WR but if you get lucky and your dart lands on the right one then you should have a very solid WR. So GOOD LUCK with that dart In our keeper league this one guy was allowed to keep one rookie and he kept Matt Jones over Marion Barber. I found that surprising but this guy is really, really smart so I think Jones is going to be the #1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted August 19, 2006 Share Posted August 19, 2006 Thanks Keggerz! I kept M. Jones in my both league and used my 16th round pick to keep him I'll take 1100/8+. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
major-tom Posted August 19, 2006 Share Posted August 19, 2006 I'll take 1100/8+. I like the under on that prediction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy Neutron Posted August 19, 2006 Share Posted August 19, 2006 Thanks Keggerz! I kept M. Jones in my both league and used my 16th round pick to keep him I'll take 1100/8+. Wilford will hit those numbers before Jones does. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted August 19, 2006 Share Posted August 19, 2006 Wilford will hit those numbers before Jones does. We'll see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donutrun Jellies Posted August 19, 2006 Share Posted August 19, 2006 i have NO CLUE who is going to be their #1 WR but if you get lucky and your dart lands on the right one then you should have a very solid WR. So GOOD LUCK with that dart The dart came up Wilford in my first redraft league (start 3, he's my 5th behind DDriver, DMason, DBennett, AToomer) ... I'd take 1100 and 8 ... I think Matt Jones is a year away from the 1000 yard level. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted October 12, 2006 Author Share Posted October 12, 2006 (edited) In this thread Brentastic wanted me to do Wayne/Harrison but I said that Jax would be a bit easier to do....hard to figure for how age will effect marvin this yr coupled with edge leaving town... Ok so here goes how I broke down and came up with the projections for the Jax WRs I again looked at the previous 3 yrs Offensive Plays Ran: 2003:1024(plays were exactly 50% run vs pass) 2004: 991(51.8% were passing plays) 2005:1021(47.4% were passing plays) 3yrAVG: 1012(49.7% were passing plays) I am using 1000 plays for my 2006 projections so if anything you can add a smidge to my projections I am also going to use 50% passing to rushing plays...2005 was the 1st time in 3yrs there was a less then balanced attack on offense...with Fred Taylor a yr older and no true replacement I am going to use 50% as a baseline but I thin that this yr it could swing to 52% on passing plays) PASSING STATS: 2003: 302/512 3389yds compl%58.9% 2004: 305/513 3315yds compl%59.5% 2005: 281/484 3340yds compl%58.1% going to use 59% as a completion% for the projections RECVNG STATS: 2003: WR1=72/1073*(23.8% of completions/31.7% of yds) WR2=35/487(11.6% of completions/14.4% of yds) 3rd best recvr was a RB(Freddy) *Jimmy was suspended for the 1st 4 games so I extrapolated out his season to a full 16 games) 2004: WR1=74/1172(24.3% of completions/35.4% of yds) WR2=50/533(16.4% of completions/16.1% of yds) 3rd best recvr was a RB(Freddy) 2005: WR1=70/1023(24.9% of completions/30.6% of yds) WR2=41/681(14.6% of completions/20.4% of yds) WR3=35/445(12.5% of completions/13.3% of yds) OK so those are the stats that I used to come up with the projections There are a couple of variable that I factored in(my opinion of course): 1. The Jags werent very deep at Recvr in 03 & 04 2. Jimmy Smith passing the torch and all the other WRs are starting to step up but just as much as Freddy is getting old too...a key player that could change the WR3 numbers would be Drew but I am going to assume that the #3 WR is actually the 3rd best recvr again in 2006. 2006 Projections: 1000 offensive plays(split 50/50 run/pass) PASSING 59% Completion % 295 Completions 500 Attempts 3400 Passing Yards(since Smith is gone and the Recvng corp has a better RAC ability I am giving an uptick in passing yards...but note this would be a team high for the last 4 yrs..the 3yr avg is 3348yds) RECVNG WR1 stats will =24% of completions and 33% of passing yards WR2 stats will =15% of completions and 18% of passing yards WR3 stats will =13% of completions and 13% of passing yards(this was the hardest to guage) So that means that the JAX Recvng stats will be: WR1=72/1122 WR2=45/612 WR3=39/442 as for who is WR1, 2 or 3 well that is for you to figure out...if a true #1 doesnt step up then the numbers could very well even out more between the 3 WRs.... hope someone finds that this helps if not well thru 5 games for the jags: they are on pace to have 14 less offensive plays then their 3 yr avg. they are on pace to: pass for 49.7 of their offensive plays rush for 50.3 of their offensive plays exactly what their 3 yr avg is! Leftwich is on pace for: 308 comp.(i projected 295) 496 attempts(i projected 500) 3309 yards (I projected 3400, ck out the bolded above) 22TDs(I did not project TDs, not sure why) now in my projections I didnt commit to who would be #1, #2 or #3 but looking at how they are thru 5 games: Reggie is #1 Willford #2(most due to injury of Matt) Matt #3 How those 3 project out using the 1st 5games as a trend and extrapolating from it: Reggie 77 catches(i projected 72 for the #1) 950 yards(i projected 1122 for the #1) Wilford 45 catches(i projected 45 for the #2) 598 yards(i projected 612 for the #2) Matt Jones 42 catches(i projected 39 for the #3) 502 yards(i projected 442 for the #3) I do think that come the end of the year if Matt Jones can get healthy he will be the one with the #2 WR stats also dont over look the 2 games with less then 140 yards passing in them in the 1st 5, I think there is still room for Lefty to meet my projections and even possibly surpass them a bit....if that happens then the WRs will most likely all improve upon my projections too. Edited October 12, 2006 by keggerz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crispirons Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 good info and good work keg. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooknladder Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 well thru 5 games for the jags: they are on pace to have 14 less offensive plays then their 3 yr avg. they are on pace to: pass for 49.7 of their offensive plays rush for 50.3 of their offensive plays exactly what their 3 yr avg is! Leftwich is on pace for: 308 comp.(i projected 295) 496 attempts(i projected 500) 3309 yards (I projected 3400, ck out the bolded above) 22TDs(I did not project TDs, not sure why) now in my projections I didnt commit to who would be #1, #2 or #3 but looking at how they are thru 5 games: Reggie is #1 Willford #2(most due to injury of Matt) Matt #3 How those 3 project out using the 1st 5games as a trend and extrapolating from it: Reggie 77 catches(i projected 72 for the #1) 950 yards(i projected 1122 for the #1) Wilford 45 catches(i projected 45 for the #2) 598 yards(i projected 612 for the #2) Matt Jones 42 catches(i projected 39 for the #3) 502 yards(i projected 442 for the #3) I do think that come the end of the year if Matt Jones can get healthy he will be the one with the #2 WR stats also dont over look the 2 games with less then 140 yards passing in them in the 1st 5, I think there is still room for Lefty to meet my projections and even possibly surpass them a bit....if that happens then the WRs will most likely all improve upon my projections too. Do you work or have any hobbies? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooknladder Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted October 12, 2006 Author Share Posted October 12, 2006 Do you work or have any hobbies? I own my own business and this and golf are my hobbies...cant very well swing a golf club in my store...and fwiw it doesnt really take much time to bust out something like that...fwiw typing up that follow up and doing the research took about 15-20mins tops Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooknladder Posted October 13, 2006 Share Posted October 13, 2006 I own my own business and this and golf are my hobbies...cant very well swing a golf club in my store...and fwiw it doesnt really take much time to bust out something like that...fwiw typing up that follow up and doing the research took about 15-20mins tops yeah, but it only takes 1-2 seconnds to type- Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted November 6, 2006 Author Share Posted November 6, 2006 (edited) well thru 5 games for the jags: they are on pace to have 14 less offensive plays then their 3 yr avg. they are on pace to: pass for 49.7 of their offensive plays rush for 50.3 of their offensive plays exactly what their 3 yr avg is! Leftwich is on pace for: 308 comp.(i projected 295) 496 attempts(i projected 500) 3309 yards (I projected 3400, ck out the bolded above) 22TDs(I did not project TDs, not sure why) now in my projections I didnt commit to who would be #1, #2 or #3 but looking at how they are thru 5 games: Reggie is #1 Willford #2(most due to injury of Matt) Matt #3 How those 3 project out using the 1st 5games as a trend and extrapolating from it: Reggie 77 catches(i projected 72 for the #1) 950 yards(i projected 1122 for the #1) Wilford 45 catches(i projected 45 for the #2) 598 yards(i projected 612 for the #2) Matt Jones 42 catches(i projected 39 for the #3) 502 yards(i projected 442 for the #3) I do think that come the end of the year if Matt Jones can get healthy he will be the one with the #2 WR stats also dont over look the 2 games with less then 140 yards passing in them in the 1st 5, I think there is still room for Lefty to meet my projections and even possibly surpass them a bit....if that happens then the WRs will most likely all improve upon my projections too. Halfway thru the season i wanted to see how things are projecting out in Jax. update coming in a bit Reggie is at 26/323 projects out to 52/646 Wilford is at 20/273 projects out to 40/546 MJones is at 18/255 projecta out to 36/510 blech...the WR 2 and 3 projections arent far off but Reggie is laying an egg on the #1 projections Edited November 6, 2006 by keggerz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MonkeyOne Posted November 7, 2006 Share Posted November 7, 2006 blech...the WR 2 and 3 projections arent far off but Reggie is laying an egg on the #1 projections Still awesome work on your part. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted February 18, 2009 Author Share Posted February 18, 2009 (edited) This bump is due to the Fred Taylor getting cut and MJD discussions to show how consistent things can be. Since this post was made to try and figure out the production for the Jags passing game here is what I projected and how the top 3 pass catchers did in 2006. 2006 Projections:1000 offensive plays(split 50/50 run/pass) PASSING 59% Completion % 295 Completions 500 Attempts 3400 Passing Yards(since Smith is gone and the Recvng corp has a better RAC ability I am giving an uptick in passing yards...but note this would be a team high for the last 4 yrs..the 3yr avg is 3348yds) RECVNG WR1 stats will =24% of completions and 33% of passing yards WR2 stats will =15% of completions and 18% of passing yards WR3 stats will =13% of completions and 13% of passing yards(this was the hardest to guage) So that means that the JAX Recvng stats will be: WR1=72/1122 WR2=45/612 WR3=39/442 as for who is WR1, 2 or 3 well that is for you to figure out...if a true #1 doesnt step up then the numbers could very well even out more between the 3 WRs.... 1st I projected the passing stats so here is what actually happened in 2006 versus what I projected above: Passing Yards 3060 (projected 3400 & missed by 21.25yards/game) Completions 266 (projected 295 & missed by 1.8/game) Completion % 59.6% (projected 59% happy with this projection ) Attempts 446 (projected 500 & missed by 3.4 passes/game) Leading Reciever caught 20% of completions (projected 24%) 2nd leading receiver caught 17% of completions (projected 15%) 3rd leading receiver caught 15% of completions (projected 13%) Leading reciever caught 20% of passing yards (projected 33%) 2nd leading reciever caught 14% of passing yards (projected 18%) 3rd leading reciever caught 21% of passing yards (projected 13%) 2006 Leading receivers stats Reggie Williams 52 / 616 11.8ypc 4 TDs Maurice Jones 46 / 436 9.5ypc 2 TDs Matt Jone 41 / 643 15.7ypc 4 TDs I sure wasn't correct on my projections but i think there is enough to look at to see just how things can change yet still for the most part stay eerily similar. Edited February 18, 2009 by keggerz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted February 18, 2009 Share Posted February 18, 2009 I would argue that Matt Jones was the #2 pass catcher and MJD was the #3 pass catcher in JAX in 2006...fwiw... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted February 18, 2009 Author Share Posted February 18, 2009 I would argue that Matt Jones was the #2 pass catcher and MJD was the #3 pass catcher in JAX in 2006...fwiw... and i wouldnt argue if you were putting them in order by yards ...i just happened to put them in order by receptions since that was the main factor in coming up with the projections Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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