QB Tiers Blurring

[msaint]

Sgt. Ryan's post in the Writers' League thread got me wondering how you guys are ranking QBs these days. Daunte without Moss, McNabb without T.O.: does this move e.g. Bulger/Green up into a "2nd tier"/move Daunte & McNabb down into the "3rd tier"? Peyton is clearly in a tier of his own.

 

Seems to me -- and I might be stating the obvious here; probably am -- that, assuming you don't get Peyton in the first, you might as well wait even longer thhan usual for your QB, as they're all pretty much alike now, i.e. the gap e between Green/Bulger and Daunte/Mcnabb has been closed...also meaning that the gap between Green/Bulger and the former "3rd tier" now won't be as great, value-wise. In other words, load up on RBs & WRs (or a Gates/Gonzo) and then nail a Hasselbeck/Collins/Palmer/Favre/Plummer-level QB in the 6th/7th/8th, rather than going for Daunte/McNabb in the 2nd/3rd or Bulger/Green in the 4th/5th.

 

Thoughts?

[Coffeeman]

Seems to me -- and I might be stating the obvious here; probably am -- that, assuming you don't get Peyton in the first, you might as well wait even longer thhan usual for your QB, as they're all pretty much alike now, i.e. the gap e between Green/Bulger and Daunte/Mcnabb has been closed...also meaning that the gap between Green/Bulger and the former "3rd tier" now won't be as great, value-wise. In other words, load up on RBs & WRs (or a Gates/Gonzo) and then nail a Hasselbeck/Collins/Palmer/Favre/Plummer-level QB in the 6th/7th/8th, rather than going for Daunte/McNabb in the 2nd/3rd or Bulger/Green in the 4th/5th.

 

930269[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

Don't forget what tiering starts with - points predictions. Whether you use DMD's or your own or someone else's, you're looking for the big dropoffs. Assuming you're thinking of the T.O. debacle, the only change lately is McNabb - the other guys' predictions have not moved!

 

Mine show Peyton and C-Pep are still in T1, (a gap is definitely there between PM and C-Pep) with McNabb dropping down just behind Bulger/Green, then Favre, Hasselbeck, etc. If T.O. doesn't get back in the fold on Wed., McNabb will drop a bit further, but he still had some decent numbers before T.O., and he will after also.

 

C-Pep had 3 games without Moss last year, and had 7 TDs and something like 700-800 yds, and Bennett/Moore are looking like a decent RB duo to take some pressure off him.

 

The only way this affects early rounds draft strategy is I can't justify take Manning early - even in my QB-friendly scoring system - due to the lack of stud RBs that will be around late in Rd2 for the 'turn'. Which is in turn due to McNabb/T.O.'s absence in Rd 2 now. Everything else is still in tact on my war room strategy board.

 

Stay the course, stay the course...

[Egret]

I took Manning third overall in a 12 team redraft league. I got lucky that C-Pep, Moss, and McNabb were also taken in the first round. I was able to nab Steven Jackson and Chad Johnson with my next two picks. As long as one of my "backups" can nail the second spot in my lineup, I'm set. I was able to get: Arrington, Ronnie Brown, Chris Brown, and Frank Gore.

 

I haven't ever taken a QB early before. It's hard to see my lineup without two bonafide stud RBs. I let the league know that Manning is on the trade block for a stud WR and RB. So far no takers.

[The Irish Doggy]

Manning is in his own tier.

 

Culpepper should be fine IMO. He did OK without Moss last year and there's enough talent at WR for the production to be there with his added rushing ability. He and Bulger are sort of tier 1B in my view. I think they will have elite numbers, but there's no good reason to think they will be better than Peyton's.

[Bender Rodriguez]

I totally agree with you about waiting until the middle rounds for a QB if you don't get Manning. The only exception would be if I got to the late 3rd/early 4th and Bulger was somehow still there. Other than that, there's about 8-9 guys in my estimation that will have pretty similar years. Of course, some have more upside or risk than others. Here's what I have for the first 2 tiers so far.

 

12 Team Perf. (Pass TD=4, Comp=1)

 

Tier 1

Manning - Undisputed #1.

Cpep - #1b even w\o Moss.

Bulger - Should be a lock for no worse than top 5.

 

Tier 2

Green

Favre

Collins - This may seem like a stretch, but I really like the Moss/Porter/Jordan trio.

Palmer - Primed for his coming out party, IMHO.

Hasselback - I'm still not sure if he should be this high.

Brees

Brady

Griese - Again, maybe a stretch but he had a great 2nd half last year.

 

???

McNabb - If TO plays he's in Tier 1 just after CPep. If not, probably somewhere in Tier 3.

[mhayhurst]

I have them ranked:

 

Manning (1st rd)

C-Pep (late 2nd)

Bulger (Late 3rd/early 4th)

Green (4th)

Farve and McNabb tied for 5th (late 4th/early 5th)

[kraftykraft]

Yes, I think there is a bit more of a falloff at QB at this point than in the past. McNabb is a casualty of the current T.O. mess, and quite frankly that situation is not looking like it will improve enough to get McNabb back into tier 1--even if T.O. swallows his pride, shuts up and comes back.

 

I have Culpepper relatively close to Manning in points production, because of CPep's running ability. After that, there is a big dropoff.

[The Misfit]

Tiers are a tool to help you draft -- as such, I think its best not to take things too literally in terms of stat projections.

 

Because I absolutely believe Manning to be a tier unto himself this year, and that's no help as a drafting tool, I've gone the other way and added a couple of QBs to Tier 1. My Tier 1 now represents "QBs whom I will not draft because they will be taken too soon for my tastes."

 

So, my Tier 1 is Manning, C-Pep, McNabb, Bulger and Favre. (I could probably add Green, Brady and Vick to this list of "undraftables," but I don't want to get confused.)

 

My Tier 2 is made up of 12 QBs I want to target for a starter and backup: Green, Palmer, Hasselbeck, Brady, Plummer, Delhomme, Brees, Brooks, Griese, Collins, Vick, Pennington. To me, the dropoff happens around the Leftwich/Carr line.

 

Obviously, if Manning fell to me at the 11th pick, or if Bulger is still around in the 5th round, I'll take him. But it won't happen. As a drafting tool, I find this division of tiers helps me best this year.

[Skrappy1]

I absolutely agree that there is now Peyton in Tier 1, and then a bunch of similar guys in Tier 2, some slightly better than others, but no one that truly stands out that far above the rest. I really don't think that the loss of a WR like Randy Moss or Terrell Owens can be overstated as far as their fantasy value to a QB goes.

 

I talked about this in the advice forum in off-season when Moss was first traded. I had thought that should be enough to push McNabb above Culpepper in this year's QB rankings, but of course I wasn't anticipating the whole Owens fiasco this year.

 

Anyway, some quick numbers to gnaw on that illustrate the huge difference an elite WR can make to a QB:

 

McNabb 2003 (16 games w/o T.O) - 3216 PAYDs w/ 16 PATDs

McNabb 2004 (15 games w/ T.O.) - 3875 PAYDs w/ 31 PATDs

 

McNabb increased his per game averages by almost 60 passing yards and a full TD with T.O.'s presence last season.

 

Culpepper 2004 (11 games w/ Randy Moss) - 3528 PAYDs w/ 30 PATDs

Culpepper 2003 *(5 games w/o Randy Moss) - 1179 PAYDs w/ 9 PATDs

 

The only time in Culpepper's career that he has been without Randy Moss, and it amounted to a huge statistical loss of over 85 passing yards a game and almost a full passing TD (.8). The .8 of a PATD would amount to almost 13 TDs over the course of a 16 game season, which runs closely in line with McNabb's increase for the year with T.O.

 

*There were only actually 2 games that Moss didn't officially play in, but there were 5 consecutive games in which he didn't catch a ball...he was injured and only on the field for a snap or two those games presumably to keep his consecutive games played streak alive, so for statistical purposes I counted them as without Moss.

 

Also worth noting is that the Vikings played collectively awful passing defenses while Moss was "out", so that can't in any way be blamed for Culpepper's struggles (relatively speaking of course). The teams faced with their defensive rankings against the pass in parentheses: TEN(26), NYG(8), @IND(28), @GB(25), DET(20).

 

I realize that any statistical comparison here isn't perfect as other outside factors come into play as well, but I don't think that these numbers can be ignored, and are very relevant in my opinion.

 

Let's also not forget the huge statistical revivals that Randall Cunninham and Jeff George both had in their first seasons playing with Randy Moss, and furthermore how a seemingly ordinary QB like Jeff Garcia prospered in 2000 and 2001 when he had T.O. as his primary receiver.

 

I think Culpepper and McNabb are still both solidly in the 2nd tier, but they are probably being overvalued upon last year's statistics in my opinion...stats that they won't be able to come close to duplicating without Moss and T.O.

Edited August 17, 2005 by Skrappy1

[Rovers]

I have Manning alone in T1, CPep alnoe in T2. The QB's are deep this year. I'll wait till very late in my drafts to pick one up.

[tomfin2000]

I have Manning alone in T1, CPep alnoe in T2.

 

 

Same here.

 

Before Owen's antics, I had McNabb in T2 along with Culpepper. Now I have him alone in T3. He was tearing it up in 2002 before he got injured, and I think that injury is a big reason why his 2003 campaign was so disapointing, especially since he was starting to put up solid stats again by the end of that season. He's been a stud in the past without Owens and I think he can be one again, even with an inexperienced group of WRs. Take away that first interception, and he put up very solid stats against one of the best defenses in the league last night.

 

I have Trent Green, Farve, and Bulger in T4. I'd give Green a slight advantage over Farve and Bulger because of his O-line, but I'd be happy with any one of the three. At least one of them should fall to the late fourth or early fifth round of a 12 team draft.

 

After that, I have 6 to 8 guys in T5, and they're more or less interchangable in my eyes. Any one of them would make a servicable starter, but I do think there's a significant dropoff after the T4 QBs are off the board.

 

I pick 2nd in a 12 team league this season, so if one of the T4 QBs are still available at the 4/5 swing, I'll probably take him. Otherwise, I'll wait and take whoever's left at the 6/7 swing.

Edited August 17, 2005 by tomfin2000