yo mama Posted September 10, 2005 Share Posted September 10, 2005 (edited) There has been much consternation about whether or not to start Jamal Lewis in Week 1, versus the Colts, in lieu of the news that Chestor Taylor will receive an "equitable" number of carries in this game. That revelation sent Lewis owners, such as myself, into a tizzy about whether or not to bench him in favor of a RB we likely drafted much later. (I had to decide between Thomas Jones and JJ Arrington, myself). It's easy to shoot from the hip. But with the kiddos napping, I figured I'd do some research, attach some thoughts, and throw it all out there for some discussion. Here's what I've digested thus far. The Man - First off, no one said there would be a "50/50" split. Equitable means fair, but not necissarily equal. Given that Lewis is the starter and that the Ravens fully intend for him to become the unquestioned featured back by Week 4 (they've said as much) "equitable" in this case should, IMO, mean no less than a 3:2 ratio, in favor of Lewis. That's my conservative estimate, as Lewis could get more. - The Ravens ran the ball an average of 26.5 times per game last year, which was surprisingly the 7th lowest average for all NFL teams in 2004. A conservative 3:2 split of an average number of Ravens' carries would thus result in Lewis running the ball 15-16 times, at a minimum. - Lewis' lifetime average yards per carry is 4.7. However, that number is inflated by a stellar 2003 season. Every other season, such as last season, he as consistantly hovered around 4.3 ypc. Thus, applying a 4.3 average ypc to my minimum 16-carry assumption would result in about 70 rushing yards. - Lewis has scored 33 TDs in 60 games, giving him a slightly better than 50% chance to score a rushing TD in every game he plays, if you forecast those stats out. - Bottom line: based on Lewis' stand-alone averages, he should produce at least 70 yards and has a pretty good chance to notch at least 1 rushing TD. That's not too bad, but certainly not spectacular. The Match Up How could the Colts' DEF affect Lewis? Beneficially, IMO. - The Colts allowed the 9th most rushing yards last year (2,037). - Perhaps more telling is that the Colts allowed opposing RBs to average 4.6 ypc, which was the 2nd highest average ypc allowed by any NFL team last year. - Oppossing teams ran the ball on the Colts an average of 27.5 times per game, which was the 4th most rushing attempts defended by any NFL team last year. - The Colts' allowed a fairly middle of the road 12 rushing TDs, which averages out to a 75% chance of a rushing TD in any game. - Bottom line: the Colts' average stats versus the run exceed the Ravens' average stats when running the ball. That's a good thing, because it strongly suggests the Colts could allow the Ravens' running game to perform at a level that exceeds the Ravens' average production. Translation: Lewis' 70 yards and better than 50/50 shot at a rushing TD (projected above) should be bumped up a bit given the opposing DEF. Prior History - When the Colts and Ravens met last year Lewis put 130 rushing yards, 17 receiving yards, and 0 TDs on the Colts over the course of 20 carries and 2 receptions. - Lewis' ypc was amazing: 6.5. - The Ravens' RBs ran the ball 28 times; Chestor Taylor received 7 of those carries and pocketed 2 receptions of his own. - Bottom line: if we again assume a 3:2 split and apply that assumption to the number of Ravens' carries seen in last year's tilt with the Colts, Lewis should see at least 16-17 carries and his ypc should be a lot higher than his 2004 average. Thus, given recent history, I think its fair to bump up expectations for Lewis a little bit, once again. Something in the neighborhood of 100 combined yards. And that's being conservative; plus a good shot at a TD. Intangibles - The Ravens' coaching staff stated earlier this year they wanted to involved Lewis in the passing game more. Super. That could mean a few more receptions (which is relevant if you get ppr), yards, and potentially more work around the goal line. - Kyle Boller's preseason was horrible. It is highly unlikely the Ravens are going to lean on the passing game to win. (Although, Boller did throw the ball 40 times against the Colts last year. But given that he connected on less than half, hopefully the Ravens learned a lesson there). - The Ravens lost the game last year to the Colts, 10-20. If they have any hope of winning, it will be through ball control offense and strong DEF. (Big surprise). However, that means two things: first, Lewis and the Ravens' running game should be very, very involved. Probably more so, relative to last year's game. *Hopefully* that means Chestor Taylor's added carries will come at least partly through more total rushing attempts, rather than from Lewis' plate. Second, the Ravens probably are not going to establish an early lead against the Colts. That means it should be unlikely that they will be able to afford to sit Lewis in the 3rd or 4th quarter and milk the clock. Yes, they are going to protect him (which I'm happy about). But he should be active in each of the 4 quarters, unless the Colts put up an insurmountable lead early. - Bottom line: The Ravens cannot afford to moth ball Lewis in this game. He'll still be active, and could see even more action in the passing game than usual. Edited September 10, 2005 by yo mama Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spain Posted September 10, 2005 Share Posted September 10, 2005 Very nice analysis. I kept Jamal in my lineups... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butkus Posted September 10, 2005 Share Posted September 10, 2005 Nice read yo. I have been kicking myself a bit for drafting Jamal ahead of Dillon, but I don't really have a choice as to whether or not to play him (besides putting Lee Evans in instead as a flex - not) and here's hoping you are correct in your analysis come Sunday night. My take is Jamal will likely get 15-20 carries but his YPC may be down a bit if his ankle and feet are bothering him. I just hope they have a couple of shots goalline on 1st and 2nd down...then Jamal should produce. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rhippens Posted September 10, 2005 Share Posted September 10, 2005 very nice. i'm also leaving lewis in my lineup, i'm not scared. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loaf Posted September 10, 2005 Share Posted September 10, 2005 nicely done. I've never questioned whether he should be removed from my lineups. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yo mama Posted September 10, 2005 Author Share Posted September 10, 2005 (edited) nicely done. I've never questioned whether he should be removed from my lineups. 980544[/snapback] I sure have. And if Thomas Jones had a more favorable match up (the Redskins are understatedly brutal on opposing rushers) I'd have benched Lewis for him. Edited September 10, 2005 by yo mama Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
admtahoe Posted September 11, 2005 Share Posted September 11, 2005 I still haven't decided if I want to bench Lewis since i Have Tiki and Parker on the bench behind him. Im thinking Parker could get close to teh same numbers as Lewis, but I also feel there is too much hype out there about Parker. I like Tiki, but I dont think he could any more yards than Lewis or Parker. I'll probably go Lewis, but Parker looks tempting because Tenn is so horrid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bonehand Posted September 11, 2005 Share Posted September 11, 2005 Yet an other example of why you are THE MAN, Yo! One X factor that I didn't see you address: Corey Simon Has he been in the lineup long enough to be effective, and what are your thoughts on how this improves the Indy Run Defense? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted September 11, 2005 Share Posted September 11, 2005 Yet an other example of why you are THE MAN, Yo! One X factor that I didn't see you address: Corey Simon Has he been in the lineup long enough to be effective, and what are your thoughts on how this improves the Indy Run Defense? 980941[/snapback] he's not a run stuffing DT, though....he's a pass rushing DT.... at times, he was a liability against the run... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bonehand Posted September 11, 2005 Share Posted September 11, 2005 he's not a run stuffing DT, though....he's a pass rushing DT.... at times, he was a liability against the run... 980947[/snapback] Cool! Didn't know that. Thanks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Posted September 11, 2005 Share Posted September 11, 2005 (edited) Nice. Last year the Colts tried scoring often to help their defense because they are better at pass rushing, so against a good D like the Ravens even 16 carries an be decent. Last year against them he ran 20 times for 130 yds, but no TD. He also had 2 catches for 17. Taylor had 7 runs for 22. Game link. Edited September 11, 2005 by Randall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Puddy Posted September 11, 2005 Share Posted September 11, 2005 Wow. Nice work. I don't even have Jamal Lewis on any team and I want to start him (hello MVP Challenge ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadgerBacker Posted September 11, 2005 Share Posted September 11, 2005 Jamal Lewis can be productive with just 15-20 carries and be a worthy start. However, if I were a Lewis owner it wouldn't be the reduced touchs that concerned me, but the reason for the reduced load. If he isn't in shape yet, will his per carry productivity be in line with career norms? And if is the case that his ankle is bad, will he even get 15-20 carries? I don't have enough information to feel like I have an accurate assessment of either his conditioning or his ankle, but that is the big question. I agree with Yo Mama that typical Jamal is plenty good even in limited action. But will we see the typical Jamal Lewis? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yo mama Posted September 11, 2005 Author Share Posted September 11, 2005 I don't have enough information to feel like I have an accurate assessment of either his conditioning or his ankle, but that is the big question. 980987[/snapback] Yeah, that's the great unknown. *He* swears up and down that he's ready. And the coaches are being cautious, IMO, because they know they can afford to be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junta Posted September 11, 2005 Share Posted September 11, 2005 yo- that was awesome... i fully agree-- from everything i have heard he is in no real pain- they will shoot him up with cortizone so he can run into the endzone... i have dillon also-- auction league... i was stressing on thursday after that abysmal first half--- and then he gets the points-- i bet we will have a similar situation with lewis-- we will see him in and out-- not getting the yards we would like--- but then he'll pop in a TD and maybe another... i think the game could get really out of hand... peyton is in for a rude awakening... i am a lifetime eagle fan and my favorite years were the buddy ryan years--- the 46 defense will remind manning what it feels like to be sacked --and hard.... i bet boller surprises.... thanks again for the great analysis... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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