Larry Johnson Bust

[Bronco Billy]

CuMar turned in how many consecutive 1000 yard seasons?

 

10. You'll find 2 other RBs, in the history of the game that have done that: Emmitt & Barry Sanders.

 

LJ, while certainly talented, hasn't yet shown he is capable of that. Yet - but he has a way to go. He is not in the class of CuMar, Emmitt, Sanders, Payton etc. To say he is after said 9 game stretch - though impressive - it to diminish their accomplishments against something that needs to be done again, and again and again and again and again and again and again and again and again and one more time to be in that category.

 

Which, of course, he won't.

 

 

Apples & oranges. I asked one set of questions based upon the games he started last year & you turn it into a debate about who had the better career. That's a pretty blatant strawman. Of course CuMar & Emmitt & Sanders & Payton & J Brown & Dorsett & ...&... have had better careers that LJ so far - LJ has had very limited starting opportunites in his very short career so far.

 

Now, could you answer my questions regarding LJ please since you seem to want to debate? How many RBs in NFL history had a 9 game stretch or better like Johnson had last year? And since you know that LJ won't be able to match those numbers, Kreskin, why don't you tell the class exactly what his career numbers will be? Obviously you have the advantage of being able to see into the future.

Edited August 21, 2006 by Bronco Billy

[Azazello1313]

No offense to Priest and LJ, who are both very talented backs. But we've seen dominant O-lines make stars out of mediocre backs and studs out of very good backs in Denver before. The situation in KC is no different.

 

 

exactly, and with big-time changes in coaching and personnel, if LJ shines this year like he did last, it will have to be on pure talent. we know LT can do that, he's done it before, playing behind a crappy o-line, with a rookie QB, and kicking ass. whether LJ can remains to be seen.

 

still, i wouldn't take him lower than 3rd with portis being dinged.

[Perchoutofwater]

Hello to all - My first post here.

 

We just held our FF Draft yesterday. I pulled the #3 slot and the first 2 picks were S.Alexnder & LaDT. I have some of the same reservations about KC's OL etc..., but I felt taht I had no choice but to take LJ with that next (#3) pick - so I did! I just couldn't see his production falling so much that he'd be worse than anybody else I had the choice of at that point.

 

My team drafted as follows:

 

1-LJ (RB), 2-R.Johnson(RB), 3-T.Holt (WR), 4-T.Green (QB), 5-D.Driver (WR), 6-B.Watson (TE), 7-Indy (D/ST), 8-D.Rhodes (RB), 9-R.Brown (WR), 10-S.Graham (K), 11-J.Kitna (QB), 12-St.Loo (D/ST), 13-M.Clayton (WR), 14-E.Kinney (TE), 15-M.Bryant (K), & 16-G.Jones (RB)

 

Should I have drafted someone other than LJ in the #3 slot?

 

Thanks!

BLitzinBill

 

 

No, LJ at #3 is a no brainer. You did screw up taking Trent Green in the 4th, Ben Watson int he 6th and IND in the 7th though. I have Trent Green in 3 leagues, and the earliest I've taken him has been the 8th round. Watson in the 6th is a reach. Unless you get one of the top 4 or 5 TE's you should wait until the later rounds. And frankly IND isn't that good, and could have been had later.

 

PS go to the fantasy advice forums when you want your team rated.

[Pope Flick]

Apples & oranges. I asked one set of questions based upon the games he started last year & you turn it into a debate about who had the better career. That's a pretty blatant strawman. Of course CuMar & Emmitt & Sanders & Payton & J Brown & Dorsett & ...&... have had better careers that LJ so far - LJ has had very limited starting opportunites in his very short career so far.

 

Now, could you answer my questions regarding LJ please since you seem to want to debate? How many RBs in NFL history had a 9 game stretch or better like Johnson had last year? And since you know that LJ won't be able to match those numbers, Kreskin, why don't you tell the class exactly what his career numbers will be? Obviously you have the advantage of being able to see into the future.

 

 

 

The strawman is YOU: you were asked how LJ compares to CuMar in terms of raw talent and you trot out the 9 game stretch as your answer. Fine. The rubuttal to said 9 game stretch, in relation to the question at hand which is: how LJ compare to CuMar in terms of raw talent is answered by the 10 year stretch. He has more than LJ has shown at this point, even by comparable points in their career, at which point CuMar was getting ready to start his 4th 1000 yard season. Is LJ getting ready to start his 2nd? We're about to find out.

 

Also, look at rushing attempts for the NYJ under Herm. With the exception of the rushing title year, he was generally in the bottom half in the league.

[Bill Swerski]

Apples & oranges. I asked one set of questions based upon the games he started last year & you turn it into a debate about who had the better career. That's a pretty blatant strawman. Of course CuMar & Emmitt & Sanders & Payton & J Brown & Dorsett & ...&... have had better careers that LJ so far - LJ has had very limited starting opportunites in his very short career so far.

 

Now, could you answer my questions regarding LJ please since you seem to want to debate? How many RBs in NFL history had a 9 game stretch or better like Johnson had last year? And since you know that LJ won't be able to match those numbers, Kreskin, why don't you tell the class exactly what his career numbers will be? Obviously you have the advantage of being able to see into the future.

 

 

A better question might be: How many RBs in NFL history have played behind a line that dominated like KC's did from 2002-2005? Those who bothered to watch the games would've noticed that one could've driven an 18-wheeler through some of the gaps that Shields and Roaf opened up.

 

And an even better question might be: When a major component of that line retires and another is in his mid-30's and fighting nagging injuries, how much longer will the system allow LJ to dominate?

[Bronco Billy]

The strawman is YOU: you were asked how LJ compares to CuMar in terms of raw talent and you trot out the 9 game stretch as your answer. Fine. The rubuttal to said 9 game stretch, in relation to the question at hand which is: how LJ compare to CuMar in terms of raw talent is answered by the 10 year stretch. He has more than LJ has shown at this point, even by comparable points in their career, at which point CuMar was getting ready to start his 4th 1000 yard season. Is LJ getting ready to start his 2nd? We're about to find out.

 

 

 

So you refuse to debate, I guess, and fall back onto career numbers instead. Tell me, did CuMar have a RB like Priest Holmes in his way in NE or NY? You and I both know the answer is no. So you continue to make comparisons that have no validity, since LJ has not played for at least 10 years and had to sit behind a RB who put up phenominal numbers in Holmes. Now, could you answer my questions please, since I have answered yours.

 

A RB can only put up starting numbers when he's given an opportunity to start. Here are LJ's numbers in the 12 games he has started in his career:

 

151 total yds 2 TDs

122 total yds 2 TDs

161 total yds 1 TD

151 total yds 2 TDs

178 total yds 0 TD

217 total yds 2 TDs

172 total yds 1 TD

149 total yds 2 TDs

171 total yds 3 TDs

184 total yds 2 TDs

179 total yds 2 TDs

222 total yds 3 TDs

 

Can you find a RB who had better numbers in the first 12 starts in their careers? Any RB - pick one throughout the history of the NFL. No one is denying that CuMar was a great RB. But what Johnson has done with the very limited starting time he has had is eye popping: 2057 total yards & 22 TDs in 12 starts. Couldn't you just admit that CuMar has never had a stretch in 12 consecutive starts where he has had stats remotely similar to this?

 

 

Also, look at rushing attempts for the NYJ under Herm. With the exception of the rushing title year, he was generally in the bottom half in the league.

 

 

You do know that in 5 years that Edwards coached in NY and of those the 4 that Martin was healthy that he was no lower than 8th in rushing attempts among all NFL RBs 3 of those 4 years, right? That includes #4 in 2001 when CuMar finished 2nd in the NFL in rushing and #1 in 2004 when CuMar lead the league in rushing. And that's being a RB whose size would not be considered condusive to taking a heavy work load.

Edited August 21, 2006 by Bronco Billy

[Savage Beatings]

With the #1 pick (knowing there are 22 other picks before you get your 2nd and 3rd picks) you obviously have to try to get that RB that will hopefully end the season having scored the most FF points of any other RB. Goes without saying really (but I just did).

 

Could somebody here (DMD) look back and see how many times the #1 ranked RB in the pre-season ends up being the highest FF scoring RB by the end of that season?

 

I'd also be curious to see what that highest FF scoring RB for each year was ranked in the pre-season of that particular year.

 

I'm guessing that the #1 ranked RB hardly ever ends up being the correct pick. Pure speculation on my part though.

[Bronco Billy]

A better question might be: How many RBs in NFL history have played behind a line that dominated like KC's did from 2002-2005? Those who bothered to watch the games would've noticed that one could've driven an 18-wheeler through some of the gaps that Shields and Roaf opened up.

 

And an even better question might be: When a major component of that line retires and another is in his mid-30's and fighting nagging injuries, how much longer will the system allow LJ to dominate?

 

 

Even if LJ gets 75% of the numbers that he has accumulated in his 12 starts the past 2 years - given that his line won't be as great, he'd still have 2057 total yards & 22 TDs in 16 games. What kind of fall are you predicting for him? 60% of his previous starting averages? That puts him at 1647 total yds & 18 TDs. I could live with that from my #1 RB, even if I did draft him in the top 3. Are you perhaps predicting an even more dire downfall than 60% of his previous starting averages?

[The Wolf]

I'm guessing that the #1 ranked RB hardly ever ends up being the correct pick. Pure speculation on my part though.

 

 

That would mean the number one overall pick, since RB's are by far the most valuable of all FF players. Having said that, I do disagree with you. If the RB stayed healthy, I can't recall one being the wrong pick.

[Pope Flick]

So you refuse to debate, I guess, and fall back onto career numbers instead. Tell me, did CuMar have a RB like Priest Holmes in his way in NE or NY? You and I both know the answer is no. So you continue to make comparisons that have no validity, since LJ has not played for at least 10 years and had to sit behind a RB who put up phenominal numbers in Holmes. Now, could you answer my questions please, since I have answered yours.

 

A RB can only put up starting numbers when he's given an opportunity to start. Here are LJ's numbers in the 12 games he has started in his career:

 

151 total yds 2 TDs

122 total yds 2 TDs

161 total yds 1 TD

151 total yds 2 TDs

178 total yds 0 TD

217 total yds 2 TDs

172 total yds 1 TD

149 total yds 2 TDs

171 total yds 3 TDs

184 total yds 2 TDs

179 total yds 2 TDs

222 total yds 3 TDs

 

Can you find a RB who had better numbers in the first 12 starts in their careers? Any RB - pick one throughout the history of the NFL. No one is denying that CuMar was a great RB. But what Johnson has done with the very limited starting time he has had is eye popping: 2057 total yards & 22 TDs in 12 starts. Couldn't you just admit that CuMar has never had a stretch in 12 consecutive starts where he has had stats remotely similar to this?

You do know that in 3 of the 4 years that Edwards coached in NY and Martin was healthy that he was no lower than 8th in rushing attempts among all NFL RBs 3 of those years, right? That includes #4 in 2001 when CuMar finished 2nd in the NFL in rushing and #1 in 2004 when CuMar lead the league in rushing. And that's being a RB whose size would not be considered condusive to taking a heavy work load.

 

 

I'm not denying those are solid numbers, but looking that (1st 12 career starts) up is impossible to do, as you well know. If you know of a site that allows you to pick stretches of parts of a season, by all means link me to it. I'm jsut saying 12 games doesn't make him better than CuMar. Not at all. Not. Even. Close. It might make him the best back playing today, then again it might not.

 

I am NOT of the opinion that because of that blistering start he is more talented than any one of the top5 RB's in history, which seems to be what you're saying. I'm not avoiding a debate, but you're disengenously trying to stack legit stats in your favor by focusing on a potential flash in the pan accomplishment and discounting years and years of accomplishments. CuMar has more talent than LJ. If that isn't true, than I expect LJ to be pushing into the top ten in rushing in 7 seasons or so. We won't know until then, but for the moment that's my opinion.

 

 

Also, as for that last part according to football-reference.com you seem off.

 

Herm coached the Jets 5 years with Martin, not 4, and Martin was the team's leading rusher all 5 years.

 

The NYJ team ranking in rushing attempts, not yards, was 14, 27, 29, 3 & 27.

Team rushing yardage rankings during that 5 year span are: 4, 22, 25, 3 & 31.

 

I'm not sure how that bodes for LJ, as I think the NYJ OL in 2001 was better than the KC line will be this year (they're just getting old) but it doesn't show that Herm's as willing to run as I once thought.

 

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nyjindex.htm

 

BTW - He started 12 (Games 2-4, 6-8 and 11-16), and was the third leading rusher in the AFC (4th NFL) with a franchise rookie-record 1,487 yards (4th best season in franchise history and tied for 5th best by a rookie in NFL history) and 15 touchdowns on 297 carries (5.0), with a long of 80. He also caught 23 passes for 169 yards (7.3) to give him a franchise rookie-record 1,656 total yards from scrimmage, seventh most in the AFC (12th NFL).

 

 

- Mike Anderson. If you had said about him what you are now saying about LJ you wouldn't be tooting LJ as much right now. That's mildly comparable, but what he has accomplished since in no way reflects how he started. Hot starts don't mean much.

 

 

LJ's good. He's just not reinventing the position or anything like that.

[Bronco Billy]

 

I am NOT of the opinion that because of that blistering start he is more talented than any one of the top5 RB's in history, which seems to be what you're saying. I'm not avoiding a debate, but you're disengenously trying to stack legit stats in your favor by focusing on a potential flash in the pan accomplishment and discounting years and years of accomplishments.

 

 

That is absolutely NOT what I'm saying. What I am saying is that his history so far makes him easily worthy of a top 3 pick in a FF draft this year, and to think otherwise seems foolhardy. That's my only argument in this thread.

Edited August 21, 2006 by Bronco Billy

[Bill Swerski]

Even if LJ gets 75% of the numbers that he has accumulated in his 12 starts the past 2 years - given that his line won't be as great, he'd still have 2057 total yards & 22 TDs in 16 games. What kind of fall are you predicting for him? 60% of his previous starting averages? That puts him at 1647 total yds & 18 TDs. I could live with that from my #1 RB, even if I did draft him in the top 3. Are you perhaps predicting an even more dire downfall than 60% of his previous starting averages?

 

 

No, I think that somewhere around 65-70% of his previous production (the loss would impact TDs more than yardage) would be reasonable without Roaf, given that Roaf was the one who transformed Priest from above-average back to stud. That also factors into account the loss of Richardson, one of the better blocking FBs in the league. Of course, that 70% is assuming that Sheilds is healthy (he wasn't in the game against the Giants last week and that line couldn't block for crap). An injury to Trent (age 35) or an injury/loss of performance from Kennison (their 33-year-old speed guy and only established WR) would also signficantly impact LJ's performance.

 

You are correct that even at 60%, LJ would still have a pretty freaking good season. In a redraft league, I'd probably take him at #1. But his supporting cast is going downhill quickly and I don't necessarily see him being a Top 3 back after this season.

[Bronco Billy]

 

 

The NYJ team ranking in rushing attempts, not yards, was 14, 27, 29, 3 & 27.

Team rushing yardage rankings during that 5 year span are: 4, 22, 25, 3 & 31.

 

I'm not sure how that bodes for LJ, as I think the NYJ OL in 2001 was better than the KC line will be this year (they're just getting old) but it doesn't show that Herm's as willing to run as I once thought.

 

 

 

I don't care what the rushing attempts were for the team, as long as my #1 RB gets the number of carries he needs to get the FF numbers that I need from him. Edwards' history is to get his #1 RB his carries, despite the low team numbers.

[Bronco Billy]

 

 

You are correct that even at 60%, LJ would still have a pretty freaking good season. In a redraft league, I'd probably take him at #1. But his supporting cast is going downhill quickly and I don't necessarily see him being a Top 3 back after this season.

 

 

Hence my point, and to think LJ is just going to fall into being a mediocre RB would a surprise of immense magnitude, while performance worthy of a top 3 pick is much more likely.

 

I do happen to agree that Johnson is going to need more help in the coming years, but it seems like FA O-linemen are easier to obtain than other positions. I would think the biggest worry in KC is at QB & WR.

[Azazello1313]

roaf has been mentioned about a hundred times in this thread...but don't forget welbourn, the other starting tackle, is gone now too. the chefs clearly ran a lot more to roaf's side, but losing BOTH starting tackles affects the overall offense in a lot of ways (like down and distance scenarios) none of which are too promising for LJ.

 

expecting the same sort of production (or even 85% of it) this year as LJ gave us for 9 games last season is an absolute pipe dream.

Edited August 21, 2006 by Azazello1313

[Bill Swerski]

but it seems like FA O-linemen are easier to obtain than other positions. I would think the biggest worry in KC is at QB & WR.

 

 

There's no way that the Chiefs are going to be able to find 10-time Pro Bowler OTs and OGs on the free agent market. Shields is probably the most-doninant OG of his generation (considernig that Larry Allen has fallen off big-time). Outside of Orlando Pace and Walter Jones (Ogden is overrated), Roaf is head-and-shoulders above his peers as well.

 

If KC succeedes in replacing Green and supplying that replacement with adequate receiving talent, KC's offense will be in decent shape for foreseeable future. But the days of free agent and late-first-rounder halfbacks putting up 20+ rushing TDs in KC are likely over.

[Bronco Billy]

 

 

expecting the same sort of production (or even 85% of it) this year as LJ gave us for 9 games last season is an absolute pipe dream.

 

 

Okay, but in his first 12 starts, he gained 2057 total yds & 22 TDs.

 

If you use .1 ppy & 6 PPTD FF scoring, to qualify for a top 3 RB over the past 4 years, a RB would have to accumulate at least 313.3 FF pts on average (the average of the 3rd best FF RB from 2002 to 2005).

 

If you extrapolate his 2057 yds/22 TDs from 12 starts to 16 starts, and then figure what he's need to be a top 3 RB based upon the average, he'd have to gain at least 69.6% of the extrapolated numbers listed above.

 

In other words, to not be worthy of a top 3 pick in a FF draft using the scoring listed above, he'd have to have his previous starting performance drop by more than 30%. 30% is a massive drop in numbers, even with the loses on the line. A decent portion of those historical starting numbers have to be attributed to Johnson's ability - those numbers are outrageous even given how great the KC line was last year. You have to give Johnson some credit for them, don't you?

 

If you do give Johnson some credit for the FF numbers he has put up in his starts, then the 30+% drop seems just too much to reasonably expect. That makes Johnson an unquestioned top 3 FF pick, IMO.

[Chavez]

it seems like FA O-linemen are easier to obtain than other positions. I would think the biggest worry in KC is at QB & WR.

*cough* wahleandrivera *cough*

[Chavez]

 

expecting the same sort of production (or even 85% of it) this year as LJ gave us for 9 games last season is an absolute pipe dream.

Then the question is what % of his production should we expect? Heck, 50% of his production from those 9 games over a full season still makes him a solid #1 back - if a disappointing one to lots of people.

[BlitzinBill]

Sorry, John (and to anyone else that had a problem with my post.)

 

I said that I was brand new to the forum, so I didn't know that the topics had to be catagorized as such. Since LJ was my first pick at#3, I thought there was some sort of revelence to this thread. I guess I should've just said that even if LJ didn't make the numbers that everyone's expecting of him (interpolating his 2005 #'s over a full 16 games,) I thought he would still be better than almost any other back available after Alexander & LaDT were already gone at picks 1 and 2.

 

BlitzinBill

[cliaz]

Sorry, John (and to anyone else that had a problem with my post.)

 

I said that I was brand new to the forum, so I didn't know that the topics had to be catagorized as such. Since LJ was my first pick at#3, I thought there was some sort of revelence to this thread. I guess I should've just said that even if LJ didn't make the numbers that everyone's expecting of him (interpolating his 2005 #'s over a full 16 games,) I thought he would still be better than almost any other back available after Alexander & LaDT were already gone at picks 1 and 2.

 

BlitzinBill

 

 

 

Don't listen to them, they are just jealous. Well, cept Big John. It would benefit you to listen to him, he is the man around here. Head on over to the tailgate. Did you get a dikz fer when you signed up?

Edited August 21, 2006 by cliaz

[Venus]

I hope that LJ has a huge season, BUT he is a Penn State RB. It's kinda like the Madden Curse. PSU RB's find a way of getting hurt when they have so much potential and this is coming from an alum who loved watching him run all over the place. I'm keeping my fingers crossed for him to have a long and productive career.

[Chavez]

- Mike Anderson. If you had said about him what you are now saying about LJ you wouldn't be tooting LJ as much right now. That's mildly comparable, but what he has accomplished since in no way reflects how he started. Hot starts don't mean much.

 

Anderson also NEVER got a fair shot at being the horse again. The next time he got more than 11 carries a game was 5 years down the road.

 

IMO, any failure on Anderson's part was as much to do with the coach taking the ball out of his hands than him flat-out proving he couldn't do the job on the field. Herm ain't taking the ball out of LJ's hands.

[Chavez]

I hope that LJ has a huge season, BUT he is a Penn State RB. It's kinda like the Madden Curse. PSU RB's find a way of getting hurt when they have so much potential and this is coming from an alum who loved watching him run all over the place.

 

You can't judge one player by others. All BYU QBs sucked in the pros - well, except for Steve Young. Big Ten RBs struggle in the NFL as a rule - well, not counting Eddie George.

[BlitzinBill]

Thanx, Chavez! I appreciate the support. - BB