Rockerbraves Posted November 6, 2006 Share Posted November 6, 2006 (edited) Let's see the Saints are 6-2 while the Steelers are 2-6, yet the opening line for this upcoming weekend has Pittsburgh a whopping 5 1/2 point home favorite over New Orleans. I'll admit, prior to the start of the season any Pittsburgh, New Orleans or any NFL fan for that matter would have penciled in a win for the defending Superbowl Champions Steelers this upcoming Sunday, however the Saints have been playing really well while the Steelers haven't. Is the AFC just that much better than the NFC? Or is New Orleans just not that good? Edited November 6, 2006 by Rockerbraves Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rajncajn Posted November 6, 2006 Share Posted November 6, 2006 New Orleans just doesn't get the credit, which is fine with me. If teams won't respect them then they will make them. Go Saints! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted November 6, 2006 Share Posted November 6, 2006 Don't let it bother you. DEN was a 3 point dog at PIT & looked at what happened. The bookies try to balance the line if they can, but they also have to take into account the public's perception when they set the lines. There are a lot of people that still feel PIT is a good team just waiting to bust out. Another loss or two ought to take care of that... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockerbraves Posted November 6, 2006 Author Share Posted November 6, 2006 Don't let it bother you. DEN was a 3 point dog at PIT & looked at what happened. The bookies try to balance the line if they can, but they also have to take into account the public's perception when they set the lines. There are a lot of people that still feel PIT is a good team just waiting to bust out. Another loss or two ought to take care of that... Didn't know Denver was getting 3 points this past weekend. Personally I think it's more of an NFC vs. AFC thing. NFC isn't getting much respect other than the Bears and now many are thinking the Bears will tank for the next couple of weeks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T_bone65 Posted November 6, 2006 Share Posted November 6, 2006 Maybe it has something to do with the way the Ravens easily beat New Orleans last weekend at home What that would have to do with Pittsburgh though does baffle me, they have been downright aweful this season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junebugz Posted November 6, 2006 Share Posted November 6, 2006 I just find it interesting that the Steelers are currently behind the Browns in the Standings ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theeohiostate Posted November 6, 2006 Share Posted November 6, 2006 don't complain, just take the bet and show up the Vegas idiots. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bushwacked Posted November 6, 2006 Share Posted November 6, 2006 Is the AFC just that much better than the NFC? Or is New Orleans just not that good? Keep in mind that bookies set the line for an uneducated betting public. The fact that the Steelers have a lot of fans (who are undoubtedly biased) nationwide, effects the line. Denver +3 was an easy moneymaker yesterday. That said, I don't know if I'd take the Saints and the points. Don't know if the Saints are that good, and not sure how bad the Steelers are yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Menudo Posted November 6, 2006 Share Posted November 6, 2006 Well, the reason the Steelers are still getting good odds is that they haven't been getting dominated. They have been turning the ball over and giving away games. Total Net Yards Jags-Steelers 362-153 Bengals-Steelers 246-365 Chargers-Steelers 341-265 Falcons-Steelers 399-473 Raiders-Steelers 98-360 Broncos-Steelers 366-499 In the Steelers six losses, they have outgained their opponents in yardage 2,115 to 1,812. Their were only two games where they were outgained (JAX & SD). So, it isn't like the Steelers don't have the talent and are being blown out of the building. They are as talented, they just aren't a very good football team right now. They turn the ball over and essentially give games away, which is the definition of a bad football team, and it makes them difficult to watch. If they were losing to teams that were clearly more talented it might be a little easier to take. I guess Vegas is counting on the give-aways to stop at some point, but, I'm not so sure that is going to happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelerMurf Posted November 7, 2006 Share Posted November 7, 2006 (edited) It is really easy for casual football fans to put a blanket over a 2-6 record and assume they just get crushed every week. The poster above me has pointed out exactly what I wanted to say. Steelers have actaully played great on offense up and down the field but turn the ball over at the worst possible time. And Ben is throwing some very bad passes when he should just be taking a sack or throwing it out of bounds. Steelers have been either leading, or trailing by only one posession in each loss mid to late in the 4th quarter. And I almost forgot all the personal foul penalties each week. I mean back to back sometimes. Too many unforced errors, sloppy, sloppy football. But in between all that is good football that keeps the games close despite 5 turnover games week in and week out. Maybe Vegas is just playing the odds....I mean can Pitt really turn it over another 6 times this week to lose? Edited November 7, 2006 by SteelerMurf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skippy Posted November 7, 2006 Share Posted November 7, 2006 While I agree with Menudo and SteelerMurf, I still can't see how they can set this line like this. I know all about public opinion but public opinion should not be pushing the line like this. IMHO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trots Posted November 7, 2006 Share Posted November 7, 2006 Looks like a sucker-bet, begging you to take the Saints. If it looks to good to be true, it probably is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockerbraves Posted November 7, 2006 Author Share Posted November 7, 2006 (edited) Looks like a sucker-bet, begging you to take the Saints. If it looks to good to be true, it probably is. I recall just a few weeks ago when the Rams were getting 10 points vs. the Chargers. No one understood that line either. Would imagine most took the points. Chargers covered that spread winning 38-24. This one looks just as strange. I could see making the Steelers a slight favorite at home but 5 1/2 seems abit high. Edited November 7, 2006 by Rockerbraves Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bushwacked Posted November 7, 2006 Share Posted November 7, 2006 Looks like a sucker-bet, begging you to take the Saints. If it looks to good to be true, it probably is. The Denver +3 bet looked to good to be true last week. Personally, I'll stay away fro this bet, because if the The only 6 time Super Bowl Winners and YOUR DADDY figure out how to stop turning the ball over, they can win very easily. But, there is no reason to believe that Big Ben won't fumble and throw at least one int....especially if the Saints get up early. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
myhousekey Posted November 7, 2006 Share Posted November 7, 2006 (edited) Looks like allot of the lines have moved down to Pit -4 after it opened at Pit -6.. http://covers.usatoday.com/data/odds.aspx#nfl I'm content with the general public keeping the Saints as the underdog that is playing over their heads. That image should keep the team focused. Edited November 7, 2006 by myhousekey Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted November 7, 2006 Share Posted November 7, 2006 Keep in mind that bookies set the line for an uneducated betting public. The fact that the Steelers have a lot of fans (who are undoubtedly biased) nationwide, effects the line. Denver +3 was an easy moneymaker yesterday. First of all, let's not talk about the "opening line" since that's not the line right now. While the opening line was even -6 at some outlets, in about 18 hours it dropped to -4, which is where it is now for the majority of the popular books. So obviously many felt the same way some of you did and brought the line down by taking the Saints. The oddsmakers do use perception. But typically the "uneducated betting public" does not move lines like this. I'd venture to say that in % of money that comes in on games, 40% are sharps, 40% are the EDUCATED betting public, and 20% tops is "uneducated betting public". Mainly because uneducated gamblers as well as Steelers fans, are not going to be wagering nearly the amount of money as the sharps and the EDUCATED betting public. Your typical Joe (Educated or Uneducated) who puts 20 or 50 on the Saints doesn't affect the line most times. To move the line down by 2 points in 18 hours, you are taking in lopsided action from the heavy betters. Last week I bought the Den +2.5 up to Den +3 and also took them ML. But that line didn't see any movement for the underdog like we are seeing this week. In fact, the line opened Pitt -1 and closed Pitt -3. Here, the exact opposite. It really has little to do w/ a Steelers fan or the small percentage of small time uneducated betters. The majority of the public saw that Den Pitt game. They saw Ben turn the ball over in the red zone time after time. They saw the Steelers march up and down the field on a great Denver D. They saw countless fumbles (6 in fact) by the Steelers resulting in 3 turnovers. Plus the 3 ints, you have 6 turnovers. And despite all that, they saw the Steelers down by only 1TD and a 2 pt conversion w/ 5 minutes left in the game. They also saw the Steelers down by that same margin plus a FG w/ just over 2 mins left in the game, on Denver's 11, w/ Hines Ward running the ball in for a TD, only to fumble on the 1 foot from the endzone. The line was released just before 8pm EST, about 45 mins after that game. By 8am the next morning it was -5 and by 2pm Monday it was -4. We'll see what happens on Sunday. I think like many, the Steelers will not give up, they are a proud bunch, and they will try to not force turnovers. We'll see what happens. Highest % public plays so far (has nothing to do w/ $, only individual picks): New Orleans +4 64.91% Dallas -7 67.72% Baltimore -7.5 70.81% Kansas City -1 74.41% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rajncajn Posted November 7, 2006 Share Posted November 7, 2006 I'm content with the general public keeping the Saints as the underdog that is playing over their heads. That image should keep the team focused. That's pretty much the way I see it. The bigger the spread the better it is for us because it gives the team that much more reason to prove everybody wrong. I see this game as 50/50. If the Saints can bring the pressure then they can cause a lot of 3 & outs. I'm not really expecting the turnovers in this game because the Saints are one of the worst teams for making interceptions. I think Pitt will try to run the ball more in this game also to help with that & I think that plays well for our defense. The big key for us offensively will be if we can get our running game moving or not. Hopefully Pitt hasn't caught on yet & they spy Bush just like everyone else has. If they do then Brees is going to burn them badly. If not then hopefully this will be the game where Bush finally finds his wheels. At any rate I think it's going to be a much better game than most people anticipate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trots Posted November 8, 2006 Share Posted November 8, 2006 At any rate I think it's going to be a much better game than most people anticipate. Who anticipates a bad game? It's pure entertainment. One trainwreck versus another. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjpro11 Posted November 8, 2006 Share Posted November 8, 2006 I'm not really expecting the turnovers in this game because the Saints are one of the worst teams for making interceptions. we have this bad habit of just giving the ball away.. i am hoping this stops sunday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockerbraves Posted November 8, 2006 Author Share Posted November 8, 2006 Who anticipates a bad game? It's pure entertainment. One trainwreck versus another. Good one. Saints have a history of trainwrecks. Can't see the Steelers packing it in for the season. Now if the Saints come in there and take this one comfortably then it's officially a Steelers trainwreck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rajncajn Posted November 8, 2006 Share Posted November 8, 2006 Who anticipates a bad game? It's pure entertainment. One trainwreck versus another. It's nice to have a chance every now & again to be able to divert the negative attention , isn't it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Menudo Posted November 8, 2006 Share Posted November 8, 2006 Well, at least Lynn Swann is our new Goven............wait, nevermind........... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted November 8, 2006 Share Posted November 8, 2006 (edited) This IS a trap game. The Denver game looked like one, but wasn't. They are begging you to take the Saints. But the fact is that there is little difference between the abilitites of these two teams. The Steelers need only to stop turning the ball over a few dozen times a game to put forth a nice effort. Odds are they won't put up turd performances two weeks in a row at home. But I see this as one of those typical "leveling" type games. 2-6 v. 6-2. One has had lots of breaks go against themand have underachieved, the other has got some breaks and maybe played a bit over their heads at times. I think the Saints could very well win the game or cover the spread. But to me it just doesn't strike me as a good bet on either side. Oh yeah, and when it comes to betting.....THE SAINTS WILL BREAK YOUR HEART!!!! Edited November 8, 2006 by rattsass Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
myhousekey Posted November 8, 2006 Share Posted November 8, 2006 Oh yeah, and when it comes to betting.....THE SAINTS WILL BREAK YOUR HEART!!!! I don't bet on my own team but these are the recent trends... NO are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 10. NO are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted November 8, 2006 Share Posted November 8, 2006 I don't bet on my own team but these are the recent trends... NO are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 10. NO are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Recent trends are great. But I was talking like, over the last 20 years. If you beat this dog enough, he will stay off the porch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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