Belmont Stakes

[spain]

It's simply that he has already reached a peak performace and is due to regress.

 

Could be. And there isnt much value in betting him. Tiago at 10-1 might be a good horse to bet across at 10-1. RTR, HS, and Curlin dont give much value at this point. What do you think Gil?

[Sir Loins of Beef]

will watch the race--but just don't usually bet races with seven or less horses--to many times went empty because of prices--tend to key on one horse in smaller fields

[HowboutthemCowboys]

Could be. And there isnt much value in betting him. Tiago at 10-1 might be a good horse to bet across at 10-1. RTR, HS, and Curlin dont give much value at this point. What do you think Gil?

 

John Sherriffs, who is 5 for his last 24 (21%) in graded stakes (which covers the last 365 days), with 12 in the money finishes (50%) and his ROI is an outstanding $4.33. Also in the last year, when he brings his graded stakes runners back in 33 to 37 days his record is 3 wins from 6 starters (50%) with a ROI of $13.47. One of those starters was Tiago in his SA Derby. Over the last 5 years using the same parameters, 33-37 days, if you want a larger sample, he's had 6 winners from 20 graded stake starters (30%), 11 in the money (55%) with an ROI of $4.84.

 

drf.com

ROI= return on investment

 

If you want to take a shot at some value Spain, this is probly where you want to be IMO. Don't think you'll get 10-1 though.

[gilthorp]

Could be. And there isnt much value in betting him. Tiago at 10-1 might be a good horse to bet across at 10-1. RTR, HS, and Curlin dont give much value at this point. What do you think Gil?

 

 

I liked Tiago several weeks ago. I still like him and am rooting for him.

 

I've learned several years ago that I do not construct my bets when the best thing I like about the horse is "his odds". I've lost a lot of money on doing what I thought was smart.

 

I think we'll see Tiago go off at about 8/1 today. There are a lot of people on him. Haskins' on the Bloodhorse was writing about how wonderful he looked and how much flesh he's put on since the Derby.

 

 

To answer your question: I think the best valued horses that have a chance to hit the board at longer odds are Tiago and CP West.

 

Spain, putting money ATB on Tiago is not a bad play, so good luck with it.

[gilthorp]

7th race: Woody Stephens BC

 

I've loved Stormello this year and thought he was on to big things, and it's been a hard lesson to learn in the past. If I like a horse enough at the start of his 3 year old campaign, you have to show patience and stick with him, so I am.

 

This is a juicy race--lots of three year olds that are all maturing on a week to week basis.

 

Outside of Stormello, I'm really liking the #6, Most Distinguished. Zito has him sharp and ready, and I think the best is yet to come with this one. However, take a look at his line, and you'll see it took him 8 races to break his maiden. This is not a horse to play to win, but he is a horse you can key in your exotics, because outside of the Tampa Bay Derby, he's never been off the board.

 

So, putting Stormello in a top spot and keying Most Distinguished, the rest of the finishers should be Sports Town, Street Magician, and Teuflesburg. This is a race that has just about every single runner with the same style, and it's going to be a calvary charge to the first turn, so I'm going to throw out the #1 and #2, assuming they are going to get pinched and will have nowhere to run. Also tossing the two outside posts, and that would leave any Pick 3 players with the 3-8 horses if they want to go deep here.

 

But, I think Stormello and Sports Town are the most likely winners of this.

 

 

 

Sports Town scratched out of the 7th

[gilthorp]

Gil, if you don't mind sharing I'd be interested. If you do mind, that's cool...

 

 

I know you mentioned the Manhattan earlier, so let me know if you like this approach.

 

Not seeing this race clearly, so I'll swing for the fences.

 

I believe Kiss The Kid is going to control the pace, and in a 1 1/4 race like this, that's important on the turf. I could go crazy and just throw it all at him, but I'm going to shoot for a large exacta in this one, and take all the big names and throw them out of the top two spots.

 

I think KTD has a great chance to hit the board, but the one I love for the win is Cosmonaut. He had mega trouble in his last and was still fighting at the end. What do these two horses have in common? Both out of Lemon Drop Kid, and I like that.

 

The other that could shock is Shakis, who oozes class and is a square price.

 

Also, there are a lot of astute handicappers that I know that really like Steppenwolfer to run a big race today. I can't say I have the conviction that all of them have, but I'm going to include him in my exacta box as I try to hit a big one.

 

So, it's a 5-6-8-9 exacta box for me in the Manhattan.

[gilthorp]

Current Belmont Odds

 

Hard Spun creating great value, Tiago, not so much.

 

Curlin 8/5

Rags To Riches 7/2

Tiago 9/2

Hard Spun 6

Imawildandcrazyguy 6

C P West 9

Slew's Tizzy 15

 

Totally failed in the 5th.

[crispirons]

pick 4 starting in race 8. take the 2 horse in race 8 deadly dealer, with the 1-4-6 in the 9th and hope for boca grande (6) the longshot to win, with english channel in the 10th the 2 horse, and curlin and hard spun in the belmont. should look like this:

 

the 2 horse race 8

the 1-4-6 in the 9th

the 2 horse in race 10th

and the 3,6 in the 11th

 

 

i also like parlaying for 20 bucks deadly dealer and english channel. take the winnings on deadly dealer and let it ride on english channel.

[gilthorp]

Here's my play for the Belmont, after cashing big on Will He Shine in the 6th.

 

$20 Exacta Box 3-6

$5 Tri 3,6/3,6/ALL

$2 Tri 3/2,4/1,2,4,7

$20 WP 4

[gilthorp]

Paceless race in the 7th...Miss Shop had no chance.

[gilthorp]

Yuck

 

Congrats to the filly!

[HowboutthemCowboys]

Well, with a bigger bankroll I'd have won over $400,000 today. I hit the pic 3 race 6,7,8 for $692 ($1 wager), and the pic 3 races 9,10 and 11 for $234 ($1 wager). That's the pick 6 boys. The first one cost $18, 3x2x3. After I won I spread out alot more in the 2nd, that one cost $60. 3x4x5. I had every horse in the Belmont except Slew's Tizzy and Hard Spun. The pick 6 with the horses I played would have cost $2160.

[HowboutthemCowboys]

I know you mentioned the Manhattan earlier, so let me know if you like this approach.

 

Not seeing this race clearly, so I'll swing for the fences.

 

I believe Kiss The Kid is going to control the pace, and in a 1 1/4 race like this, that's important on the turf. I could go crazy and just throw it all at him, but I'm going to shoot for a large exacta in this one, and take all the big names and throw them out of the top two spots.

 

I think KTD has a great chance to hit the board, but the one I love for the win is Cosmonaut. He had mega trouble in his last and was still fighting at the end. What do these two horses have in common? Both out of Lemon Drop Kid, and I like that.

 

The other that could shock is Shakis, who oozes class and is a square price.

 

Also, there are a lot of astute handicappers that I know that really like Steppenwolfer to run a big race today. I can't say I have the conviction that all of them have, but I'm going to include him in my exacta box as I try to hit a big one.

 

So, it's a 5-6-8-9 exacta box for me in the Manhattan.

 

Missed this post as I left around 11 this morning, sorry.

 

I had 2,6,7,8 in that leg of the pic 3.I had to include English Channel and Better Talk Now even with the low odds. That was a great finish. I loved Shakis also and was screaming for him at the end.

[godtomsatan]

Yuck

 

Congrats to the filly!

 

 

Fun race to watch. All the chicks at Emerald were screaming as if equality among the genders had actually been achieved. Tiago cashed in on the show nowhere near what I spent on him, but such are the races.

 

It was pouring buckets all afternoon, so the crowd was hard core at the track, with most leaving after the big race. Got to see a fistfight over a DQ'd horse in the 6th @ Hollywood. Someone cheered a little too loud, a push, a push back and some fists flew. The guys were separated from each other rather quickly, and the guy who did the initial pushing left quickly. The one who got pushed was excited at having the 18-1 horse who finished 2nd bumped up to first. Didn't hear how much his payout was, but probably a nice one with those numbers.

 

Edgar Prado's collapse on Cosmonaut in the Manhattan prompted the kind of meltdown you can only see at a racetrack. Beginning with the horse taking command at the stretch, then fading as the race ends. The bettor standing in front of me mutters something about god damned Prado, turns around saying "the worst jockey in the country". Begins screaming "THE ENTIRE COUNTRY! THE WORST JOCKEY IN THE ENTIRE COUNTRY!". Asking everyone and no one at the same time, "Did you see that? Can you believe what he did?". Then the muttering continues as his back turns and he stammers away from the televisions and betting windows, until he gets to a garbage bin and kicks it over, turns around screaming "THE ENTIRE COUNTRY!" one last time before disappearing.

 

No meltdowns from me today. Only cashed one reasonable 7-1 winner and a $13 Tri that kept my loses around tolerable for the day. It's been fun doing this Triple Crown stuff this year, and I hope we can keep up some dialogue when some of the bigger races happen this summer, or the when the Breeders Cup races come up.

[HowboutthemCowboys]

 

 

Edgar Prado's collapse on Cosmonaut in the Manhattan prompted the kind of meltdown you can only see at a racetrack. Beginning with the horse taking command at the stretch, then fading as the race ends. The bettor standing in front of me mutters something about god damned Prado, turns around saying "the worst jockey in the country". Begins screaming "THE ENTIRE COUNTRY! THE WORST JOCKEY IN THE ENTIRE COUNTRY!". Asking everyone and no one at the same time, "Did you see that? Can you believe what he did?". Then the muttering continues as his back turns and he stammers away from the televisions and betting windows, until he gets to a garbage bin and kicks it over, turns around screaming "THE ENTIRE COUNTRY!" one last time before disappearing.

 

 

 

 

It's been fun doing this Triple Crown stuff this year, and I hope we can keep up some dialogue when some of the bigger races happen this summer, or the when the Breeders Cup races come up.

 

agreed.

[spain]

Congrats to you guys who did well. I was a loser on the day but had fun betting on the ponies!

[Ramhock]

What about the Hambo or the Breeder's Crown?

[Disfunction Junction]

It seems alot of you folks in this thread are handicapping the odds rather then the horses. The same type that will pick 5 winners and still lose money. A winner is a winner. There is no short prices in this game. It dosen't matter where your betting at. Favorites win about 31 to 32 percent of the time. If you take that and dig even more you would be suprised that favorites in cheaper races win twice more then in stakes races. Bet 10 and get back 13? Whats so bad about that? Three bucks out of nothing but most of you are cursed because its betting. Money isn't made on the Kentucky derby or the Million. Its the hog races and claiming ones. The 6, 7, and 8 year old horses that have been around and run true to form. I could go on and on but I'm not. Don't be the guy who stuffs his pockets every morning with dynamite and spends the rest of the day running around blowing out matches.

[spain]

Don't be the guy who stuffs his pockets every morning with dynamite and spends the rest of the day running around blowing out matches.

 

Uh, that would be me!!

[gilthorp]

It seems alot of you folks in this thread are handicapping the odds rather then the horses. The same type that will pick 5 winners and still lose money. A winner is a winner. There is no short prices in this game. It dosen't matter where your betting at. Favorites win about 31 to 32 percent of the time. If you take that and dig even more you would be suprised that favorites in cheaper races win twice more then in stakes races. Bet 10 and get back 13? Whats so bad about that? Three bucks out of nothing but most of you are cursed because its betting. Money isn't made on the Kentucky derby or the Million. Its the hog races and claiming ones. The 6, 7, and 8 year old horses that have been around and run true to form. I could go on and on but I'm not. Don't be the guy who stuffs his pockets every morning with dynamite and spends the rest of the day running around blowing out matches.

 

 

 

Let me know when you are off your soap box.

 

Money is made on the Derby and the Million and the undercard of the Belmont because it's called parimutual betting, and there's guppies like you in that pool betting on horses that become big time underlays because of the stupid money and your approach. So, the handicappers can identify a horse that is ready to run a big race that's an overlay, and you make your money. The handicappers also know when there's a real favorite in the race, and in the case of Bordonaro yesterday, it still requires a clean trip to win a race.

 

Two winners yesterday for me, and I played 6 races. 33%. I'll take that any day, and they didn't return $3 on my $10.

 

22.80

14.60

 

Those weren't favorites. Not one favorite won any of the graded stakes yesterday. With your aproach, you'll fit right in with the old ladies and the bridge club you'll belong to in Niles in a few years.

[HowboutthemCowboys]

 

Let me know when you are off your soap box.

 

Money is made on the Derby and the Million and the undercard of the Belmont because it's called parimutual betting, and there's guppies like you in that pool betting on horses that become big time underlays because of the stupid money and your approach. So, the handicappers can identify a horse that is ready to run a big race that's an overlay, and you make your money. The handicappers also know when there's a real favorite in the race, and in the case of Bordonaro yesterday, it still requires a clean trip to win a race.

 

 

 

Exactly. When I'm handicapping I'm looking for value. I'm usually trying to beat the favorite which is usually easier on a day like yesterday. The reason for that is that there's alot of people betting that don't know their ass from a hole in the ground and are listening to the dolts on NBC tell them that so and so can't lose b/c of his connections, or b/c he ran so well his last two races. If I can't find a horse, at a price I like, that I feel does'nt have a great chance to win I skip the race...there's no money in it for me.

By all means DF, keep throwing money at chalk....PLEASE!!

[spain]

Hey Disfunction Junction: I dont know "sic em" from "come here" about horse racing and never claimed to. But I like to gamble. And for the triple crown race day, breeders cup, etc. I will usually have a little fun playing the ponies. I dont study the sport and am purely in it for fun those few days a year that I bet. That said, there are some guys on this site who know ALOT about gambling on horses. You can definitely learn a thing or two just reading these threads as they are kind enough to share their thoughts with the board here. So, DF, I have never seen you post 1 single time in any of these horse threads and then come out spewing some crap. Methinks you have no clue whatsoever. I am going to side with these guys who have always been very helpful to me on raceday, and have always advised me against betting chalk.

[Disfunction Junction]

Hey Disfunction Junction: I dont know "sic em" from "come here" about horse racing and never claimed to. But I like to gamble. And for the triple crown race day, breeders cup, etc. I will usually have a little fun playing the ponies. I dont study the sport and am purely in it for fun those few days a year that I bet. That said, there are some guys on this site who know ALOT about gambling on horses. You can definitely learn a thing or two just reading these threads as they are kind enough to share their thoughts with the board here. So, DF, I have never seen you post 1 single time in any of these horse threads and then come out spewing some crap. Methinks you have no clue whatsoever. I am going to side with these guys who have always been very helpful to me on raceday, and have always advised me against betting chalk.

 

 

 

I like to gamble to Spain. I was just stating that the Derby and other stake races isn't were the money is made if your a regular player. I also stated that favorites win twice as much in the cheaper races then compared to the stakes races. Thats all, and I received a bunch salty posts in reply to my post from some that felt there ego got stepped on or something. I didn't mean any harm. Just trying to help as I did in this post http://forums.thehuddle.com/index.php?showtopic=198321&hl=.

 

Theres alot of posters here but its hard to believe that you claim to have never seen one post from me. I was the one who started the Kentucky Derby thread. You remember that thread don't you? http://forums.thehuddle.com/index.php?show...c=197840&st=125. I enjoyed your tale about your derby experiece by the way.

 

I'd like to shut up right here and just say that you owe me a beer at rib fest but I can't. You and your huddle friends tried to make me feel as if i know nothing about horse racing and i can't let it slide. I'd like to know how many of you that replied to my post has ever pet a pony or better yet a throughbred? Come on... raise your hands! I grew up around the track and have my father who trained race horses for over 30 years to thank for sharing his knowledge and the chance to be a part of something known as the King Of Sports. This still might sound like crap that I'm spewing but being a gambler like yourself I'm open and call any bets offered. I'd like to hear more on how i could learn something from you rail jockeys?!? Are you kidding? Don't test me. Save your money for rib fest... it will be cheaper.

[spain]

I like to gamble to Spain. I was just stating that the Derby and other stake races isn't were the money is made if your a regular player. I also stated that favorites win twice as much in the cheaper races then compared to the stakes races. Thats all, and I received a bunch salty posts in reply to my post from some that felt there ego got stepped on or something. I didn't mean any harm. Just trying to help as I did in this post http://forums.thehuddle.com/index.php?showtopic=198321&hl=.

 

Theres alot of posters here but its hard to believe that you claim to have never seen one post from me. I was the one who started the Kentucky Derby thread. You remember that thread don't you? http://forums.thehuddle.com/index.php?show...c=197840&st=125. I enjoyed your tale about your derby experiece by the way.

 

I'd like to shut up right here and just say that you owe me a beer at rib fest but I can't. You and your huddle friends tried to make me feel as if i know nothing about horse racing and i can't let it slide. I'd like to know how many of you that replied to my post has ever pet a pony or better yet a throughbred? Come on... raise your hands! I grew up around the track and have my father who trained race horses for over 30 years to thank for sharing his knowledge and the chance to be a part of something known as the King Of Sports. This still might sound like crap that I'm spewing but being a gambler like yourself I'm open and call any bets offered. I'd like to hear more on how i could learn something from you rail jockeys?!? Are you kidding? Don't test me. Save your money for rib fest... it will be cheaper.

 

I did not grow up around horses. Ive ridden horses plenty of times(not thoroughbreds obviously) but I have never owned any. I grew up in Tennessee where paramutual betting is illegal due to the high number of blue-haired Baptists we have here. We dont have any racetracks at all unless your are talking about nascar. I have petted some roosters and been to some cockfights if that counts. So, I know not of what I speak and never claimed to know. But I do know some folks on this board who are knowlegeable. I didnt mean to imply that you werent too as I have no idea.

 

BTW, do you live in the Chicagoland area?

[Big John]

BTW, do you live in the Chicagoland area?

 

He moved there last year.