Poker Question

[Easy n Dirty]

6-man Sit-n-Go tournament, $30 buy-in paying $126 for first place and $54 for second place (70/30). Down to 3 players as follows:

 

You - 3,500

SB - 800

BB - 4,500

 

Blinds are 200/400. You open UTG for 1,400 with A-J suited. SB folds, and BB shoves all in. BB has gone all in several times before since play has been down to three players, as have all 3 remaining players, as each of you has been the short stack at one time or another in what has been a bit of a roller coaster.

 

Call or fold?

[wildcat2334]

3 way? you bet I am liking my AJ- I call here every time.

 

He is making a move on you, especially since he has been shoving all in, and since it is bubble time -

[KevinL]

I vote call.

[geeteebee]

For this amount of money I call, but if more money was on the line I probably fold. But, I don't think I make that preflop raise unless I was prepared to go all in since I know BB has been playing pretty loose (or getting good cards).

 

Since you are asking, my guess is you called and he flipped over QQ and nothing hit for you.

[cre8tiff]

That's what you get for playing poker with Bronco Billy

[Big Country]

You fold. Harrington had a long section on these types of situations. Essentially, you have to fold just about anything but aces and kings in this given situation because of the bump in pay from $0 to $54 for just moving up. IN SNGs, contrary to popular belief, your first goal has to be to make the money.

 

Not a fun fold, but, with one player having 2 bets left, you lay it down, hope the 800 stack is knocked out soon and get to heads up, even if it is as an approximately 6500-2500 chip dog. Say you call. What are you hoping to see? Obviously a smaller ace or a KQ are good. But any pocket pair is ahead of you, with JJ and AA dominating you, as are AK and AQ. Given that range, and even giving this player credit for being a loose raiser, your EV by playing this hand is going to be a lot lower than your EV of folding this hand and given your self a grater chance of making the money.

 

Let's say that if you go all in and win the hand you win the tourney 70% of the time, 2nd place 25% and 3rd place 5%. If you lose the hand, you get $0. Let's say that you are in a situation that is essentially a coin flip, like he has pocket 6s. Your EV is then (.7*126+.25*54+.05*0)*.5=(88.2+13.5+0)*.5=101.7=.5=50.85 (Obviously I am oversimplifying as really you have to estimate out how often he dominates you and EV that, how often you dominate him and EV that and blend the 3 numbers, but this is close enough for the example).

 

On the flip side, let's say you fold and now you win 25%, 2nd 45% and 3rd 30%, your EV is (.25*126+.45*54+.3*0)=(31.5+24.3+0)=55.8

 

So, EV of playing the hand is 50.85 and EV of folding is 55.8. Clearly folding the hand is the better play.

 

Obviouslt I just pulled these numbers out of the air, but I don't think they are very far from the actual scenario.

Edited October 3, 2007 by Big Country

[Kansas State 2000]

If it paid three spots I would call but since it pays only two you FOLD.

[T_bone65]

I would of called

[cre8tiff]

Your EV is then (.7*126+.25*54*.05*0)*.5=(88.2+13.5+0)*.5=101.7=.5=50.85 (Obviously I am oversimplifying as really you have to estimate out how often he dominates you and EV that, how often you dominate him and EV that and blend the 3 numbers, but this is close enough for the example).

 

[Easy n Dirty]

You fold. Harrington had a long section on these types of situations. Essentially, you have to fold just about anything but aces and kings in this given situation because of the bump in pay from $0 to $54 for just moving up. IN SNGs, contrary to popular belief, your first goal has to be to make the money.

 

Not a fun fold, but, with one player having 2 bets left, you lay it down, hope the 800 stack is knocked out soon and get to heads up, even if it is as an approximately 6500-2500 chip dog. Say you call. What are you hoping to see? Obviously a smaller ace or a KQ are good. But any pocket pair is ahead of you, with JJ and AA dominating you, as are AK and AQ. Given that range, and even giving this player credit for being a loose raiser, your EV by playing this hand is going to be a lot lower than your EV of folding this hand and given your self a grater chance of making the money.

 

Let's say that if you go all in and win the hand you win the tourney 70% of the time, 2nd place 25% and 3rd place 5%. If you lose the hand, you get $0. Let's say that you are in a situation that is essentially a coin flip, like he has pocket 6s. Your EV is then (.7*126+.25*54*.05*0)*.5=(88.2+13.5+0)*.5=101.7=.5=50.85 (Obviously I am oversimplifying as really you have to estimate out how often he dominates you and EV that, how often you dominate him and EV that and blend the 3 numbers, but this is close enough for the example).

 

On the flip side, let's say you fold and now you win 25%, 2nd 45% and 3rd 30%, your EV is (.25*126+.45*54+.3*0)=(31.5+24.3+0)=55.8

 

So, EV of playing the hand is 50.85 and EV of folding is 55.8. Clearly folding the hand is the better play.

 

Obviouslt I just pulled these numbers out of the air, but I don't think they are very far from the actual scenario.

 

Yeah, I've read Harrington, and while I didn't do the math at the table, I did take the prize structure into account - with a 70/30 payout, my inclination is to go for the win. FWIW - if I call and win, I then have over 7,000 chips to 1,000 for the BB and 600 for the SB (after he posted his SB), and with blinds at 200/400. I'd like to think I close the deal in that situation more than 70% of the time, but who knows...

 

I viewed it much like wildcat did, given the situation I think you gotta' open up his hand range quite a bit here as it is at least very possible that he's making a bubble move. Dude ended up having A-9 and hit his 9 on the river - it happens, I understand that, but then afterwards in chat he started carrying on that I never shoulda' called him, mostly for the reasons BC mentions, although without getting that specific. It irked me to lose the hand that way, and even more to then have the guy who sucked out on me start lecturing me on how to play poker, ugh. I took the high road and just left the table, but now I've been thinking about the hand all day and what the right play is there. Clearly in this particular instance the call was the right play as I got all my chips in as a heavy heavy favorite, but yeah he could just as easily have had A-Q or worse too.

 

I kinda' think that with a 70/30 payout, the spread between first and second is big enough to justify calling here, but I could be wrong. As BC notes, his math is oversimplified because to truly do an EV analysis we'd have to make an estimation of what his raising range is here and then proceed accordingly. Suffice it to say that given the circumstances as well as the way he'd been playing, I thought his range here was pretty wide.

[Big Country]

Yeah, I've read Harrington, and while I didn't do the math at the table, I did take the prize structure into account - with a 70/30 payout, my inclination is to go for the win. FWIW - if I call and win, I then have over 7,000 chips to 1,000 for the BB and 600 for the SB (after he posted his SB), and with blinds at 200/400. I'd like to think I close the deal in that situation more than 70% of the time, but who knows...

 

I viewed it much like wildcat did, given the situation I think you gotta' open up his hand range quite a bit here as it is at least very possible that he's making a bubble move. Dude ended up having A-9 and hit his 9 on the river - it happens, I understand that, but then afterwards in chat he started carrying on that I never shoulda' called him, mostly for the reasons BC mentions, although without getting that specific. It irked me to lose the hand that way, and even more to then have the guy who sucked out on me start lecturing me on how to play poker, ugh. I took the high road and just left the table, but now I've been thinking about the hand all day and what the right play is there. Clearly in this particular instance the call was the right play as I got all my chips in as a heavy heavy favorite, but yeah he could just as easily have had A-Q or worse too.

 

I kinda' think that with a 70/30 payout, the spread between first and second is big enough to justify calling here, but I could be wrong. As BC notes, his math is oversimplified because to truly do an EV analysis we'd have to make an estimation of what his raising range is here and then proceed accordingly. Suffice it to say that given the circumstances as well as the way he'd been playing, I thought his range here was pretty wide.

 

I can't fault the call. And I would guess that by opening up his range of hands, then coming up with the probability of him having the various ranges the math would come out a lot closer to being a true coin flip situation. But, you got the money in with the best hand and got sucked out on. I can't completely fault his play, but, with the extreme short stack and you showing aggression (granted, no word on your image at that point), I may well have let the A9 go if I felt Iwas as good as if not better than you and could head into heads up play with similar stacks. If I felt you were a much better player than I, then I probably push the A9 as I would rather gamble at that point.

[wildcat2334]

Yeah, I've read Harrington, and while I didn't do the math at the table, I did take the prize structure into account - with a 70/30 payout, my inclination is to go for the win. FWIW - if I call and win, I then have over 7,000 chips to 1,000 for the BB and 600 for the SB (after he posted his SB), and with blinds at 200/400. I'd like to think I close the deal in that situation more than 70% of the time, but who knows...

 

I viewed it much like wildcat did, given the situation I think you gotta' open up his hand range quite a bit here as it is at least very possible that he's making a bubble move. Dude ended up having A-9 and hit his 9 on the river - it happens, I understand that, but then afterwards in chat he started carrying on that I never shoulda' called him, mostly for the reasons BC mentions, although without getting that specific. It irked me to lose the hand that way, and even more to then have the guy who sucked out on me start lecturing me on how to play poker, ugh. I took the high road and just left the table, but now I've been thinking about the hand all day and what the right play is there. Clearly in this particular instance the call was the right play as I got all my chips in as a heavy heavy favorite, but yeah he could just as easily have had A-Q or worse too.

 

I kinda' think that with a 70/30 payout, the spread between first and second is big enough to justify calling here, but I could be wrong. As BC notes, his math is oversimplified because to truly do an EV analysis we'd have to make an estimation of what his raising range is here and then proceed accordingly. Suffice it to say that given the circumstances as well as the way he'd been playing, I thought his range here was pretty wide.

 

 

I see both sides, and BC's point- in that situation, 3 way- on the bubble- I am loving AJ there a couple reasons- first being AJ is a STRONG hand 3 way- this guy has been pushing like crazy, and you are on the bubble, and in position - people either tighten up way too much on the bubble, or they make moves like the BB did - you made the right call- and I make the same call every time.

 

and yeah- the chat you get from morons after they suck out on you is priceless. He made the wrong play and got lucky-

[Big Country]

and yeah- the chat you get from morons after they suck out on you is priceless. He made the wrong play and got lucky-

 

Care to elaborate on how he made the wrong play?

 

3 handed A9 is a strong hand. 3 handed, the button has a wide range of raising hands, and given a short stack and being on the bubble, this may well be a very good time to reraise to collect the blinds and the button raisers money as well. Not knowing how EnD has been playing when it was 3 handed thus far, what he has shown, etc., the SB may well have though his hand had a very good chance of being good if EnD called, and that EnD could/would lay down a lot of hands that he would raise with, even hands that beat his A9 such as smaller pocket pairs. He pushes, and IMO was obviously hoping for a fold, but if he got called could easily be in a race against a small pocket pair, be a 60/40 dog to a middling pair, or get lucky and see KQ or something. He got the worst case scenarion with a bigger ace calling (well, AA would have been worse) and got lucky.

 

SO, I don;t think it is very clear cut that the SB made the wrong play by pushing. He got lucky and made an idiot of himself with the chat.

[wildcat2334]

BC- wrong may have not been the best choice of words, cetainly make a case for pushing.

 

I meant more the wrong play in terms of being able to talk chit following the hand

 

- I can certainly see calling with the A9 there.....

[alexgaddis]

bah, Joey Harrington can't even play football, I ain't gonna listen to him when it comes to cards...

 

I would re-raise the all in...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Big Country]

BC- wrong may have not been the best choice of words, cetainly make a case for pushing.

 

I meant more the wrong play in terms of being able to talk chit following the hand

 

- I can certainly see calling with the A9 there.....

 

okay.. so we are seeing eye to eye.. remind me to avoid sitting at your tables then.

[Grits and Shins]

I only go all in with pocket deuces

 

 

Having said that ... my action is going to depend a LOT on my feel for the table, the players and the cards that night. My first reaction is that A-J is strong enough three handed to move all in with but a lot less palatable to call an all in. It is likely that when I call the all in I am either behind in the hand or in a race ... neither of which is palatable at the bubble. With an extreme short stack and play being at the bubble I fold.

[TimC]

I only go all in with pocket deuces

 

You are a favorite against A-J then.

 

With the small stack having 2 BB's left, I fold everything but pocket aces if the 2nd stack shoves pre-flop. I don't even think twice about it.

[Easy n Dirty]

You are a favorite against A-J then.

 

With the small stack having 2 BB's left, I fold everything but pocket aces if the 2nd stack shoves pre-flop. I don't even think twice about it.

 

You gotta' consider the prize structure before making a blanket statement like that - if the prize pool was paid out 90%/10%, then that would be a very foolish way to play.

 

In this case, I felt the difference between first and secondplace money was enough to justify a call, given all of the other circumstances.

[TimC]

I respectfully disagree. It only pays 2 places. If the 3rd person is so short as to only have 2 BB's left, I can wait two orbits 3-handed for him to be blinded off (unless I have a premium hand). A-J offsuit may not really be a favorite against much. A coin flip at best. And killed by A-K, A-Q.

 

It's a good enough hand to push with, but not call off 9x the big blind and the rest of my chips, especially with the 3rd place person being so short IMO.

Edited October 3, 2007 by TimC

[wildcat2334]

I respectfully disagree. It only pays 2 places. If the 3rd person is so short as to only have 2 BB's left, I can wait two orbits 3-handed for him to be blinded off (unless I have a premium hand). A-J offsuit may not really be a favorite against much. A coin flip at best. And killed by A-K, A-Q.

 

It's a good enough hand to push with, but not call off 9x the big blind and the rest of my chips, especially with the 3rd place person being so short IMO.

 

 

this is curious to me. So, you guys are folding AJ in position because you are going into stall-mode until the SS is blinded off or knocked out? way too passive. I just don't get it- at the very least you are raising here with AJ and forcing the SB to possibly call hoping to double up- and being a major favorite.

 

How do you figure AJ is not a favorite against much 3 way?

 

especially on the bubble- the initial raise is an EVEN better play IMO, as peeps fold like tents. Not many scenarios where I am folding AJ in position- especially 3 handed.

 

END got his money in as a hugh favorite- and got sucked out on-

[TimC]

I push with A-J, but wouldn't call with it when someone is that short stack. He'll be gone in a matter of a couple of hands and I could care less if I have a 10-1 lead going heads up or a 2-1 disadvantage. Unless I have a great read on the guy, A-J offsuit IS marginal to call off your stack with. I wouldn't do it. If the short stack has more chips and I have a good read, then it's possible (although unlikely) I call and hope to get lucky. I don't think it's passive. I'm not here to gamble pre-flop like is the rage nowadays. I'll wait for a better opportunity.

 

The results of the hand aren't relevant. The call with A-J offsuit for 9 times the big blind with such a short stack in 3rd (and out of the money) is an error IMO.

Edited October 3, 2007 by TimC

[Easy n Dirty]

...I could care less if I have a 10-1 lead going heads up or a 2-1 disadvantage...

 

I guess this is where we differ. I hear what you're saying and you might very well be correct in that A-J (they were suited, but so what) is a weak hand to call off all chips with, but again with a 70/30 payout structure I definitely do care how many chips I bring into the HU portion of the match.

 

But your post made me think of something else - as you point out, it may be a hand that's strong enough to push with, but not strong enough to call with. Given that, and given that I was willing to call off all of my chips with the hand eventually, perhaps my initial play should have been to shove rather than to raise to 1400 (3.5x BB). I really wasn't hoping for a call anyway when I raised with that hand UTG (except from the SB, and it was an all in bet as far as he was concerned even at 1400), I just wanted to take the 600 in blinds already out there. In this instance, going all in initially certainly would have worked better as the BB in that case would have folded his A-9 I think.

[Big Country]

Well, I was just coming back to this thread to post that in retrospect, I think you should have open pushed. I only analyzed the hand based on the action you had taken and the question posed about calling at that point or not, and didn't even start thinking about your first preflop decision.

 

You have 9 bets and an M of just under 6. Not surprising as in these things everyone is shortstacked at the end.

 

AJ is certainly playable. But I really dont want to take a flop with it, on the bubble, against the only player that can bust me. I'll try and find the quotes in HOH (forget if it was in volume 2 or 3, but I think it was also brought up in some of the SNG strategy that was posted here not too long ago), about how important it is to first make the money.

 

I think by open pushing you only get called by the stack that is bigger than you if you are beat, but you also get a lot of the lower pairs to fold. If you were willing to call all in with the hand, as you were, then it is a clear time to open push. The blinds by themselves represent about 7% of the chips in play, and an 18% boost to your stack. That is hugh, and you want to take that down immediately, putting the maximum amount of pressure on your opponent with the big stack. If he wakes up with a big hand, that's poker. If he calls off with a mediocre hand or one you beat and beats you, that's poker. Granted, if he calls off his chips the result is the same, but you made him make a big mistake in so doing, whereas, I think mathematically given the payouts and EV, you made a small mistake in calling even though you had the best hand and were really in about as good of a situation as you could expect.

[Easy n Dirty]

I think by open pushing you only get called by the stack that is bigger than you if you are beat, but you also get a lot of the lower pairs to fold. If you were willing to call all in with the hand, as you were, then it is a clear time to open push. The blinds by themselves represent about 7% of the chips in play, and an 18% boost to your stack. That is hugh, and you want to take that down immediately, putting the maximum amount of pressure on your opponent with the big stack. If he wakes up with a big hand, that's poker. If he calls off with a mediocre hand or one you beat and beats you, that's poker. Granted, if he calls off his chips the result is the same, but you made him make a big mistake in so doing, whereas, I think mathematically given the payouts and EV, you made a small mistake in calling even though you had the best hand and were really in about as good of a situation as you could expect.

 

Yeah, that's the point I was making in my previous post - you just said it a lot better.