BS Miscreant Posted July 29, 2008 Share Posted July 29, 2008 Trends from your draft spots... What players are you getting? Do you love/like/hate what you're seeing? Is it pretty stable? All over the place? Surprises? In particular, the 11 spot in a 12 team league w/PPR. I'm not getting any kind of a decent feel for the quality of the teams I've been able to put together, which is probably not a good sign. Or I have yet to educate myself thoroughly this season, which is not good either but that can be fixed. Who knows. Thoughts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted July 29, 2008 Share Posted July 29, 2008 Not sure how much this helps because most of you scoff at 8 team leagues, but that's what my local is, so that's what I've been drafting on FF Calculator (which, FWIW, has been pretty solid). I've got the 1st pick and have been downright pissed off at the fact that nobody I hope to fall to me does. Well, not entirely. I did 4 this am and only once did one of my top 15 guys make it to me at 16/17. I typically wait on QB, but Manning was there for me in 3 of the 4. I took him twice and didn't the 3rd time just to see what I'd end up with. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LayLow Posted July 29, 2008 Share Posted July 29, 2008 QB's going early, Wr's going faster, alot of RBBC, rookie backs, and possible bounce-back RB's (Rudi, parker, etc) going later then they should. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BS Miscreant Posted July 29, 2008 Author Share Posted July 29, 2008 (edited) QB's going early, Wr's going faster, alot of RBBC, rookie backs, and possible bounce-back RB's (Rudi, parker, etc) going later then they should. I'm seeing the same with QBs and WRs. Not unusual to see Brady, Manning(also seeing Romo going early) and the top 5 WRs gone in the first and by mid-second. Not sure how you're seeing alot of RBBC in mock drafts though. Can you explain that? Edited July 29, 2008 by BS Miscreant Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted July 29, 2008 Share Posted July 29, 2008 Larry Johnson is lasting until 15 or so usually and Jamal Lewis can be had whenever you want him Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted July 29, 2008 Share Posted July 29, 2008 Is there something about Ronnie Brown I don't know about? Is he progressing crazy fast? Because he's off the board by pick 30 in pretty much every draft I do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BS Miscreant Posted July 29, 2008 Author Share Posted July 29, 2008 (edited) Larry Johnson is lasting until 15 or so usually and Jamal Lewis can be had whenever you want him See this is the kind of stuff that's getting to me right now. I wouldn't want to take either of those guys any earlier than that but who do you take instead when you're sitting at 11 or 12. I've picked out of the 9-11 spots before and have never been so uncomfortable with what I'm getting there or in the later rounds. That's the point of this. I'm hoping someone out there is seeing something differet than I am or can offer up some info that'll make feel better about my perceived conundrum. Edited July 29, 2008 by BS Miscreant Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grits and Shins Posted July 29, 2008 Share Posted July 29, 2008 Personally I don't place a lot of value in mock drafts. People who participate in them are not invested in their resulting teams and are simply participating in an excercise. It is almost a certainty that at least several of the participants are "testing out a draft strategy" that they wouldn't normally employ at their own drafts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted July 29, 2008 Share Posted July 29, 2008 Personally I don't place a lot of value in mock drafts. People who participate in them are not invested in their resulting teams and are simply participating in an excercise. It is almost a certainty that at least several of the participants are "testing out a draft strategy" that they wouldn't normally employ at their own drafts. I'm sure that's true, but I don't think that completely discounts their value. At least if you do enough of them. Back to miscreant's point. I see LJ as this year's Ronnie Brown. The guy that you absolutely have to take if you're sitting in the mid teens and he's there. Not somebody that you're stoked about on draft day, but somebody you have to take. The good news is, chances are, you'll be happy you did. He's a tough pill to swallow at 8-10 where he's you're RB1, but you can live with it at 15 where he's either RB2 or you've got Randy Moss in the stable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted July 29, 2008 Share Posted July 29, 2008 See this is the kind of stuff that's getting to me right now. I wouldn't want to take either of those guys any earlier than that but who do you take instead when you're sitting at 11 or 12. I've picked out of the 9-11 spots before and have never been so uncomfortable with what I'm getting there or in the later rounds. That's the point of this. I'm hoping someone out there is seeing something differet than I am or can offer up some info that'll make feel better about my perceived conundrum. The best draft I ever had was out of the 11 spot a few years ago and I didn't get anyone I really wanted. I really wanted T Henry, but had to settle on A Green. I really wanted K Robinson but had to settle on T Holt at 30 something. I really wanted J Porter, but had to settle on Chad Johnson the next time around. Long story short, all three of those picks were money. Green had his best year ever and those were the real break out years for Holt and Ocho. Keep your chin up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted July 29, 2008 Share Posted July 29, 2008 (edited) I am loving the 11/12 slots this year...when you can wait til round 5/6 to nab a rudi johnson it really allows you to be ahead of the curve at WR 3 mocks I have done: 11slot: http://www.thehuddle.com/x8/pre/mock_draft_02_12perf.php 11slot: http://www.thehuddle.com/x8/pre/mock_draft_06_12perf.php 12slot(currently going on....WCOFF RULES) http://football30.myfantasyleague.com/2008...=15576&O=17 Edited July 29, 2008 by keggerz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TDFFFreak Posted July 29, 2008 Share Posted July 29, 2008 Moss going in the mid-first round. I thought we'd be looking at the end of the first round, earliest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted July 29, 2008 Share Posted July 29, 2008 Moss going in the mid-first round. I thought we'd be looking at the end of the first round, earliest. I know I am going to be in the minority here but even if Moss made it to 12 I would not be taking him over a few other WRs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yo mama Posted July 29, 2008 Share Posted July 29, 2008 - People are reaching for Berrian. - Too many people continue to draft Coles over Cotchery when they're about the same in value - People haven't figured out where the heck to draft defenses yet this year - QBs are flying off the board earlier than ever - starting RBs can be had in the 4-6th rounds more often than ever - Fewer people are going RB/RB with the first two picks, and low risk/high reward WRs are much harder to come by after you get outside the 3rd round - Nobody likes Jon Kitna this year - Marshall is being drafted to high, relative to lower risk guys like Santanio Holmes. - Reggie Bush is routinely falling into the 3rd round. - Lots of good #3 WR value to be had in the 7th round and later: not seeing any reason to reach sooner, unless the value is spectacular - people still don't know what to do with Marvin Harrison. Routinely available at 5.1. - After the top 5 TEs people don't really know what to do. Guys like Owen Daniels and Vernon aren't getting much love and make a decent case for waiting at that position, if you can load up with more value at other positions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grits and Shins Posted July 30, 2008 Share Posted July 30, 2008 I'm sure that's true, but I don't think that completely discounts their value. At least if you do enough of them. How exactly does the number of mock drafts participated in change the value in them? When you are not draft YOUR team it is just an intellectual exercise with no rewards for a good draft or penalties for a bad draft. There is no pressure. No matter how many times you play Monopoly the money is still fake and you don't learn how to become a businessman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted July 30, 2008 Share Posted July 30, 2008 How exactly does the number of mock drafts participated in change the value in them? When you are not draft YOUR team it is just an intellectual exercise with no rewards for a good draft or penalties for a bad draft. There is no pressure. No matter how many times you play Monopoly the money is still fake and you don't learn how to become a businessman. The simple fact is that most people who play fantasy football, do so with disposable money as a form of entertainment. As a result, the comparison to monopoly vs real life business is silly. My point is simply this. Plenty of people who enter mocks still want to "win". That is, end up with the best team out there. Some may be trying to see what happens if they take a QB earlier than usual or what not, but they're still trying to get the best team they can. So, maybe the 1st TE goes off the board before you might expect, but that doesn't mean that everyone's going to grab a TE in the 3rd round. Over all, plenty are trying to see how good a team they can get. Thus, if you join several from the same spot, you'll get a pretty decent idea of who's going to be available where. I have a handful of guys that I targeted at specific spots and I've done some mocks to see if I'm expecting them to fall too far or not. It seems like a few I'm going to have to get lucky on, others, not so much. This has been useful. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peepinmofo Posted July 30, 2008 Share Posted July 30, 2008 See this is the kind of stuff that's getting to me right now. I wouldn't want to take either of those guys any earlier than that but who do you take instead when you're sitting at 11 or 12. I've picked out of the 9-11 spots before and have never been so uncomfortable with what I'm getting there or in the later rounds. That's the point of this. I'm hoping someone out there is seeing something differet than I am or can offer up some info that'll make feel better about my perceived conundrum. Huddle Ladder I got the 11 spot, and I couldnt be happier. Lynch, Wayne, Brees with my 1st 3 picks. Ive seen Lynch last to that spot in several drafts actually. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksu70 Posted July 30, 2008 Share Posted July 30, 2008 - People are reaching for Berrian.- Too many people continue to draft Coles over Cotchery when they're about the same in value - People haven't figured out where the heck to draft defenses yet this year - QBs are flying off the board earlier than ever - starting RBs can be had in the 4-6th rounds more often than ever - Fewer people are going RB/RB with the first two picks, and low risk/high reward WRs are much harder to come by after you get outside the 3rd round - Nobody likes Jon Kitna this year - Marshall is being drafted to high, relative to lower risk guys like Santanio Holmes. - Reggie Bush is routinely falling into the 3rd round. - Lots of good #3 WR value to be had in the 7th round and later: not seeing any reason to reach sooner, unless the value is spectacular - people still don't know what to do with Marvin Harrison. Routinely available at 5.1. - After the top 5 TEs people don't really know what to do. Guys like Owen Daniels and Vernon aren't getting much love and make a decent case for waiting at that position, if you can load up with more value at other positions. Well put and noted for the Empire draft... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grits and Shins Posted July 30, 2008 Share Posted July 30, 2008 (edited) The simple fact is that most people who play fantasy football, do so with disposable money as a form of entertainment. As a result, the comparison to monopoly vs real life business is silly. My point is simply this. Plenty of people who enter mocks still want to "win". That is, end up with the best team out there. Some may be trying to see what happens if they take a QB earlier than usual or what not, but they're still trying to get the best team they can. So, maybe the 1st TE goes off the board before you might expect, but that doesn't mean that everyone's going to grab a TE in the 3rd round. Over all, plenty are trying to see how good a team they can get. Thus, if you join several from the same spot, you'll get a pretty decent idea of who's going to be available where. I have a handful of guys that I targeted at specific spots and I've done some mocks to see if I'm expecting them to fall too far or not. It seems like a few I'm going to have to get lucky on, others, not so much. This has been useful. Bottom line you are not invested in the team you draft in a mock other than the desire that you drafted the best team. You don't have to live with your draft. You draft and it is over. You can even declare yourself the winner of the mock draft and nobody can prove you wrong ... just as you can't prove you are right. Furthermore the dynamics of every draft is different and the group of owners at each draft have different tendencies making the mock even more irrelevant. If you are basing your draft strategy on mock drafts then you IMO you do have to get lucky to win. Additionally where players are drafted shifts and changes the closer we get to the first game ... with players getting injured, players getting demoted and a variety of other things that change the percieved value of more than a fiew players. Edited July 30, 2008 by Grits and Shins Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yo mama Posted July 30, 2008 Share Posted July 30, 2008 Well put and noted for the Empire draft... (note to self: plan to disseminate disinformation prior to draft is working on the less intelligent Empire members. However, may need to dumb things down even further for the Cowboys fans). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Square Posted July 30, 2008 Share Posted July 30, 2008 I am loving the 11/12 slots this year...when you can wait til round 5/6 to nab a rudi johnson it really allows you to be ahead of the curve at WR 3 mocks I have done: 11slot: http://www.thehuddle.com/x8/pre/mock_draft_02_12perf.php 11slot: http://www.thehuddle.com/x8/pre/mock_draft_06_12perf.php 12slot(currently going on....WCOFF RULES) http://football30.myfantasyleague.com/2008...=15576&O=17 Somewhat similiar to the last link in Keggerz post...I've drafted from the eleven spot in a few mocks and started out with the following a few times: Portis Lynch R. WIlliams / sometimes W. Welker S. Holmes / sometimes B/. Marshall J. Stewart / sometimes R. White or T. Jones Lendale White / sometimes M. Harrison / and so on... I'm not saying those are perfect rounds but Portis, Lynch, R. Williams, and S. Holmes sounds like a solid start to me (at this point at least...we'll see if anything develops in preseason). I don't mind grabbing RB/RB if the right guys fall to me at 11. You could always see if you could get Portis / Barber / Lynch as a RB1 and see if R. Wayne or TO are there at 2.02. Grab another WR in 3.11 and go for 2 RBs in the next 3 rounds. Taking the best available of T. Jones / Rudi / Stewart / White in rounds 4, 5, or 6 (depending on what WRs are available). There is a lot of personal choice depending on how much risk or upside / value you see in the later picks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
General Itals Posted July 30, 2008 Share Posted July 30, 2008 (edited) :cowboysfan: Taking notes. :cowboysfan: Edited July 30, 2008 by General Itals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capostatus Posted July 30, 2008 Share Posted July 30, 2008 i am NOT liking the fact that WRs are going so fast in every mock draft. with the 24th and 25th picks it seems like i cant even land ONE top 10 receiver ......i was hoping i could at least get colston but even hes gone by 20. this puts me in a tough spot because im left with guys like plax/holt/ocho cinco/marshall to choose from in a PPR league. i need some of these guys to fall or else im lookin at average receivers at best. thats not gonna get it done Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted July 30, 2008 Share Posted July 30, 2008 The simple fact is that most people who play fantasy football, do so with disposable money as a form of entertainment. As a result, the comparison to monopoly vs real life business is silly. My point is simply this. Plenty of people who enter mocks still want to "win". That is, end up with the best team out there. Some may be trying to see what happens if they take a QB earlier than usual or what not, but they're still trying to get the best team they can. So, maybe the 1st TE goes off the board before you might expect, but that doesn't mean that everyone's going to grab a TE in the 3rd round. Over all, plenty are trying to see how good a team they can get. Thus, if you join several from the same spot, you'll get a pretty decent idea of who's going to be available where. I have a handful of guys that I targeted at specific spots and I've done some mocks to see if I'm expecting them to fall too far or not. It seems like a few I'm going to have to get lucky on, others, not so much. This has been useful. sometimes in a mock if I am curious if I can land a player at a particular spot and he makes it to that spot I will actually pass on him and take the next highest rated at the same position to see just how much farther he will fall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yo mama Posted July 30, 2008 Share Posted July 30, 2008 sometimes in a mock if I am curious if I can land a player at a particular spot and he makes it to that spot I will actually pass on him and take the next highest rated at the same position to see just how much farther he will fall Yeah, I'll do that too, once I'm comfortable that I can draft him at a certain position. It's only natural to test how often that player is available in the next round if you pass on him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.