ABearWithFurniture Posted July 30, 2008 Share Posted July 30, 2008 Here's the 1st 3 rounds of one of my 12 team redraft money leagues that we are doing right now (non-PPR)...very strange. 1. RB - LT 24. QB - PManning 25. WR - Fitz 2. RB - AD 23. RB - JLewis 26. WR - Colston 3. QB - Tom Brady 22. RB - WParker 27. WR - SSmith 4. RB - SJackson 21. WR- Housh 28. WR - ABoldin 5. RB - Westbrook 20. QB - TRomo 29. RB - DMcFadden 6. RB - Addai 19. WR - BEdwards 30. RB - RBrown 7. RB - Gore 18. RB - RGrant 31. QB - DBrees 8. WR - RMoss 17. RB - WMcGahee 32. RB - EGraham 9. RB - Lynch 16. WR - AJohnson 33. RB - BJacobs 10. WR - TO 15. RB - LJ 34. TE - JWitten 11. RB - Portis 14. RB - MJD 35. RB - RBush 12. RB - Barber 13. WR - RWayne 36. WR - THolt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted July 30, 2008 Share Posted July 30, 2008 Bottom line you are not invested in the team you draft in a mock other than the desire that you drafted the best team. You don't have to live with your draft. You draft and it is over. You can even declare yourself the winner of the mock draft and nobody can prove you wrong ... just as you can't prove you are right. Furthermore the dynamics of every draft is different and the group of owners at each draft have different tendencies making the mock even more irrelevant. If you are basing your draft strategy on mock drafts then you IMO you do have to get lucky to win. Additionally where players are drafted shifts and changes the closer we get to the first game ... with players getting injured, players getting demoted and a variety of other things that change the percieved value of more than a fiew players. I think it's rather safe to say that anyone doing several mock drafts before Aug 1 is likely basing their draft strategy on more than mock drafts. As for you first bit. I don't really care if anyone else thinks I "won" the mock draft. I'll either feel good about who I ended up with or feel like I put myself in a position where I was always having to settle based on my early choices. That's why I do them. Besides, why is it so bad that guys are trying things out? Mind you, I doubt it's as random as what you mentioned with the 1st round TE example you used. For example, In my first 3 mocks, Peyton Manning fell to my 2nd pick. I'm inclined to say he's good value there and took him the first two times. The 3rd, however, I decided I'd see how it would pan out if I passed on him there and went with the best RB/WR. Of course, he was taken with the very next pick, so it's not like I completely changed the thing. Obviously you think these are a waste of time. Good for you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted July 30, 2008 Share Posted July 30, 2008 (edited) Here's the 1st 3 rounds of one of my 12 team redraft money leagues that we are doing right now (non-PPR)...very strange. 1. RB - LT 24. QB - PManning 25. WR - Fitz 2. RB - AD 23. RB - JLewis 26. WR - Colston 3. QB - Tom Brady 22. RB - WParker 27. WR - SSmith 4. RB - SJackson 21. WR- Housh 28. WR - ABoldin 5. RB - Westbrook 20. QB - TRomo 29. RB - DMcFadden 6. RB - Addai 19. WR - BEdwards 30. RB - RBrown 7. RB - Gore 18. RB - RGrant 31. QB - DBrees 8. WR - RMoss 17. RB - WMcGahee 32. RB - EGraham 9. RB - Lynch 16. WR - AJohnson 33. RB - BJacobs 10. WR - TO 15. RB - LJ 34. TE - JWitten 11. RB - Portis 14. RB - MJD 35. RB - RBush 12. RB - Barber 13. WR - RWayne 36. WR - THolt I don't see anyone being taken more than a few spots earlier or later than I've been seeing in anything I've done. That honestly doesn't seem that strange. Edit to Add: Actually, I didn't see Willie Parker the first time I looked at it, that's pretty strange and I have to agree with Scourge, Manning might have slipped a bit as well. Especially with Romo going ahead of him. Edited July 30, 2008 by detlef Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scourge Posted July 30, 2008 Share Posted July 30, 2008 Here's the 1st 3 rounds of one of my 12 team redraft money leagues that we are doing right now (non-PPR)...very strange. 1. RB - LT 24. QB - PManning 25. WR - Fitz 2. RB - AD 23. RB - JLewis 26. WR - Colston 3. QB - Tom Brady 22. RB - WParker 27. WR - SSmith 4. RB - SJackson 21. WR- Housh 28. WR - ABoldin 5. RB - Westbrook 20. QB - TRomo 29. RB - DMcFadden 6. RB - Addai 19. WR - BEdwards 30. RB - RBrown 7. RB - Gore 18. RB - RGrant 31. QB - DBrees 8. WR - RMoss 17. RB - WMcGahee 32. RB - EGraham 9. RB - Lynch 16. WR - AJohnson 33. RB - BJacobs 10. WR - TO 15. RB - LJ 34. TE - JWitten 11. RB - Portis 14. RB - MJD 35. RB - RBush 12. RB - Barber 13. WR - RWayne 36. WR - THolt This is a great thread.. Aside from Manning slipping down to 24 overall, I don't see anything too out of the ordinary from anything else I have seen. LT, Manning and Fitz is a great start for that team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MTSuper7 Posted July 30, 2008 Share Posted July 30, 2008 I've done a few mocks and reviewed some mocks, and here are just a couple of observations on my end: 1) Drew Brees seems to be falling farther than I thought he would. I have the #2 pick in one 12-team league and the #3 pick in another 12-team league, and I am hopeful he'll be there at 4.02 or 4.03 based on what I've seen. 2) It seems like more people are jumping on rookie running backs earlier than I've seen in the past. Stewart and McFadden (and sometimes Forte) are generally going earlier than guys like Julius Jones, Edge, Rudi. More upside I guess? 3) There is real inconsistency in mock drafts on certain players. Examples: Donte Stallworth, Lee Evans, Ronnie Brown, Jamal Lewis... Tough to get a read on what round they'll go in. 4) Ricky Williams is going in the 10th-11th round in most mocks, and he's a bargain there despite whatever risk he may hold. Chances seem pretty good that he'll see a lot of action, and he may end up with a decent workload considering Ronnie Brown's shaky injury status. 5) Chris Johnson and Ryan Torain seem to be going around the 12th round in a lot of mocks. That looks like good value to me, especially with Johnson since LenDale is out of shape and hurt already. They'll likely find a number of ways to get the rook touches. Torain is decent value with the Denver offense, especially when you look at the RBs in front of him on the depth chart (Selvin Young not seen as an every down back, Pittman older than dirt). It'll be interesting to see how training camp and preseason games impact the value of these two. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LayLow Posted July 30, 2008 Share Posted July 30, 2008 I'm seeing the same with QBs and WRs. Not unusual to see Brady, Manning(also seeing Romo going early) and the top 5 WRs gone in the first and by mid-second. Not sure how you're seeing alot of RBBC in mock drafts though. Can you explain that? I am seeing alot of Running Back By Committee backs going later on in the draft. (Fred taylor, Felix jones, Wille Parker, etc,etc,etc) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LayLow Posted July 30, 2008 Share Posted July 30, 2008 sometimes in a mock if I am curious if I can land a player at a particular spot and he makes it to that spot I will actually pass on him and take the next highest rated at the same position to see just how much farther he will fall Agreed, me too. When I mock draft with people I know, I INTENTIONALLY don't pick guys I want to see how far they actually will fall before being picked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TDFFFreak Posted July 30, 2008 Share Posted July 30, 2008 Agreed, me too. When I mock draft with people I know, I INTENTIONALLY don't pick guys I want to see how far they actually will fall before being picked. If even a few take this approach in a mock draft, I think it can completely invalidate the resutls. That's why mocks can be tricky to disect. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hat Trick Posted July 30, 2008 Share Posted July 30, 2008 I am loving the 11/12 slots this year...when you can wait til round 5/6 to nab a rudi johnson it really allows you to be ahead of the curve at WR 3 mocks I have done: 11slot: http://www.thehuddle.com/x8/pre/mock_draft_02_12perf.php 11slot: http://www.thehuddle.com/x8/pre/mock_draft_06_12perf.php 12slot(currently going on....WCOFF RULES) http://football30.myfantasyleague.com/2008...=15576&O=17 Thank you, you just saved me some time! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted July 31, 2008 Share Posted July 31, 2008 (edited) Thank you, you just saved me some time! np, but i should also add that the WCOFF rules one is a "Best Ball" format too Edited July 31, 2008 by keggerz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted July 31, 2008 Share Posted July 31, 2008 OK, the trend is far too apparent to ignore. Whether or you agree or not with the Huddle top 200, there's simply no reason at all to take RBs off the board as soon as it suggests. Guys like Graham and J Stewart are almost never coming off the board before pick 40 or so and guys like Edge, Forte, C Johnson, Rick Will, and others DMD's got in the top 50 or so are being taken as late round fillers. I'm not saying that the top 200 isn't accurate, well, considering that scarcity must be a determining factor for rankings, perhaps it is off a bit. None the less, you can afford to pass up on Graham and Co. in the 20s in favor of a top WR and be pretty confident that there'll be more to choose from the next time it comes around to you. In every draft that I've gone RB heavy to start, I've ended up being pissed because there continues to be decent RB options late and my WRs end up being all interchangable WR3 level guys. When I've grabbed 1 tier 1/2 RB and then gone back to back WR with a tier 1 and 2 WR, I've been able to end up grabbing enough promising RBs later that it's safe at least one of them should emerge as a decent RB2. Much better IMO, than having 4 really good RBs and Hines Ward/Dwayne Bowe as my top 2 WRs. Now, grain of salt and all, but I was sick the past few days and have done a bunch of real time drafts and it just keeps happening over and over. Guys who grab QBs and WRs early are simply not being penalized. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MustOfBeenDrunk Posted July 31, 2008 Share Posted July 31, 2008 the biggest trend i have seen & surprise is how early rookies are being drafted this year !! not only in Dynasty but re-drafts too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted July 31, 2008 Share Posted July 31, 2008 the biggest trend i have seen & surprise is how early rookies are being drafted this year !!not only in Dynasty but re-drafts too Really? I recall AP and Lynch coming off the board much earlier than Stewart and McFadden. Now, I will agree about the volume of rookies going off the board as maybe 6 or so are being picked and it's usually 2 or maybe 3. Mind you, this might have more to do with an inordinate amount of rookies being taken in the 1st round of the NFL draft or, as in Forte's case, being nearly handed the starting role due to an untimely exit of the incumbent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grits and Shins Posted August 1, 2008 Share Posted August 1, 2008 Where is Favre going in your mocks? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted August 1, 2008 Share Posted August 1, 2008 Where is Favre going in your mocks? Why do you care? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grits and Shins Posted August 1, 2008 Share Posted August 1, 2008 Why do you care? I don't ... my point is I am sure he is being drafted in mocks right now despite the fact that his status is entirely unknown at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted August 1, 2008 Share Posted August 1, 2008 I don't ... my point is I am sure he is being drafted in mocks right now despite the fact that his status is entirely unknown at this point. Well, truth be told, he hasn't been taken in any of mine. Sorry to burst your bubble. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hat Trick Posted August 1, 2008 Share Posted August 1, 2008 Where is Favre going in your mocks? 16 team IDP, 32 spots, Club drafted him 9.03 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawks21 Posted August 1, 2008 Share Posted August 1, 2008 Everybody knows what I'm going to say before I say it. McFadden and Julius Jones are going way too late IMO and appear to be absolute steals in the 3rd/4th. Deangelo Williams is the biggest value I keep seeing. I think he has a legit shot at a really big year. The WR run from 2-8 is always in a different order. I would advise waiting until the end of this run and grabbing which ever one falls the farthest. Take Fitz/Holt at the end of the 3rd rather than TO in the 2nd. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted August 1, 2008 Share Posted August 1, 2008 (edited) Everybody knows what I'm going to say before I say it. McFadden and Julius Jones are going way too late IMO and appear to be absolute steals in the 3rd/4th. Deangelo Williams is the biggest value I keep seeing. I think he has a legit shot at a really big year. The WR run from 2-8 is always in a different order. I would advise waiting until the end of this run and grabbing which ever one falls the farthest. Take Fitz/Holt at the end of the 3rd rather than TO in the 2nd. Wow, one of us is going to be really right or really wrong. I see DeAngelo as a complete throw away pick. J Stew is exactly the back they've been looking for and if Williams couldn't crack the lineup ahead of the fragile Foster, I can't see why he could now. I mean, you don't use a mid 1st round pick on a position if you feel like you're all set. Obviously they didn't feel they're all set. McFadden and Jones? maybe, but I hardly see them as a "steal" in the top 40. I'll give you the Fitz/Holt at the end of 3 over TO in the 2nd call but, like I said before, I'm all about grabbing top WRs at 2/3 because the back are still there later than they "should be" Edited August 1, 2008 by detlef Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikesVikes Posted August 1, 2008 Share Posted August 1, 2008 OK, the trend is far too apparent to ignore. Whether or you agree or not with the Huddle top 200, there's simply no reason at all to take RBs off the board as soon as it suggests. Guys like Graham and J Stewart are almost never coming off the board before pick 40 or so and guys like Edge, Forte, C Johnson, Rick Will, and others DMD's got in the top 50 or so are being taken as late round fillers. I'm not saying that the top 200 isn't accurate, well, considering that scarcity must be a determining factor for rankings, perhaps it is off a bit. None the less, you can afford to pass up on Graham and Co. in the 20s in favor of a top WR and be pretty confident that there'll be more to choose from the next time it comes around to you. But that isn't new for this year. That's always been the case, even before considering if a league is a PPR or not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawks21 Posted August 1, 2008 Share Posted August 1, 2008 Wow, one of us is going to be really right or really wrong. I see DeAngelo as a complete throw away pick. J Stew is exactly the back they've been looking for and if Williams couldn't crack the lineup ahead of the fragile Foster, I can't see why he could now. I mean, you don't use a mid 1st round pick on a position if you feel like you're all set. Obviously they didn't feel they're all set. McFadden and Jones? maybe, but I hardly see them as a "steal" in the top 40. I'll give you the Fitz/Holt at the end of 3 over TO in the 2nd call but, like I said before, I'm all about grabbing top WRs at 2/3 because the back are still there later than they "should be" Stewart looks great on paper but everybody is conveniently failing to mention that he has had to carry the stigma of being soft throughout his college career. Especially at his size. Your reasoning behind why they won't play Williams is sound. My thinking is that Stewart will struggle, and Deangelo will play well with his chances. The guy is just so talented, he is gonna explode in a big way at some point. He is a very good risk worth taking where he is being drafted. McFadden to me of course is the biggest. Top 10 back this year. Going 40th? Come on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kcmast Posted August 1, 2008 Share Posted August 1, 2008 -Top 5-6 WRs going early -A big gap between selection of top 5 QBs (Brady, Manning, Brees, Romo, Palmer) and the 6th QB -Marvin Harrison is going early -Roy Williams going late (later than CJ, Holt, Housh, Plaxico) -RBs that are slipping significantly past their Huddle ranking: Jamal Lewis, Lendale White, Ernest Graham, Julius Lones -No rookie RBs going early (maybe due to people wanting to see how far they'll slide) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HowboutthemCowboys Posted August 2, 2008 Share Posted August 2, 2008 Everybody knows what I'm going to say before I say it. McFadden and Julius Jones are going way too late IMO and appear to be absolute steals in the 3rd/4th. Everyone knows what I'm gonna say too. Anyone that drafts Julios Jones in the 3rd/4th will kick themselves in the ass about halfway through the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoungBob Posted August 2, 2008 Share Posted August 2, 2008 Where is Favre going in your mocks? ...back to Mississippi. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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