Steeltown Dre Posted September 9, 2008 Share Posted September 9, 2008 Feel free to post anything in here about Picks, Advice, Critique or Info. The more accurate information we have at our fingertips, the better off we are. Back for week 2, I hope many of you did well in Week 1. My plays went 7-1, and I think several others had quite a good week as well. Some players here and elsewhere I've seen had a pretty tough week, so the goal this week will be to bring every out on top after this week! It will take a combined effort w/ info and critical thinking but I think we can get the job done. I haven't made any plays yet but I'll be looking at things and will let you guys know what I see. Good luck to us all this week! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildcat2334 Posted September 12, 2008 Share Posted September 12, 2008 (edited) gotta bump this baby........... games I am liking right now- thoughts and input appreciated!! Strong College play for me tonight- Baylor -3. line opened at WSU -2.5 MIN +1 CAR -3 OAK +3.5 SF +7.5 Edited September 12, 2008 by wildcat2334 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted September 12, 2008 Share Posted September 12, 2008 gotta bump this baby........... games I am liking right now- thoughts and input appreciated!! Strong College play for me tonight- Baylor -3. line opened at WSU -2.5 MIN +1 CAR -3 OAK +3.5 SF +7.5 I'm only with you on Carolina. I wouldn't touch that Minnesota game. My play of the week is Tenn +1. Yeah, I know. It seems like a trap. The Titans should be 4 point favorites in this game. But they are a plus 1. Wow. Okay, I'll take the bait. After watching both of these teams last week it is clear to me that the Bengals have no idea the ash whipping they are about to get. No way they can hang with the Titans physical style of play. I don't know anything about the situational numbers on a play like this, all I know is that the Titans are a much better more physical team (and maybe even more so with Kerry Colins). If the Titans hang onto the ball, it's going to get ugly. Titans +1. I think it would be great if everyone could weigh in on the Ohio St./ USC game. I think USC's depth, and homefield advantage, and the absence of Wells is too much for THE Oh St. Looks like a 14 point USC win to me. No play. Just watch and enjoy. Well, maybe a 1st half play. We'll see how the day goes... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HowboutthemCowboys Posted September 12, 2008 Share Posted September 12, 2008 Not sure of the current line but if New England is still getting points this week, count me in. No way they lose to the Jets. They may falter without the Golden Boy but not this week. This week they rally around Cassel and prove they can win with Brady. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildcat2334 Posted September 12, 2008 Share Posted September 12, 2008 Not sure of the current line but if New England is still getting points this week, count me in. No way they lose to the Jets. They may falter without the Golden Boy but not this week. This week they rally around Cassel and prove they can win with Brady. I agree with this. ratt - I am on USC -11.5 already - I see something like 37-13 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HowboutthemCowboys Posted September 13, 2008 Share Posted September 13, 2008 I like Cleveland this week too. I don't think they're as bad as last week and I don't think Pittsburgh is as good as they were last week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stduke Posted September 13, 2008 Share Posted September 13, 2008 (edited) Rat I'm totally with you on the Titans this week. I'm dropping a load on this. The Titans will win this game easily! With Collins in there he will spread the field with Gage and Johnson will have a field day running the ball. The Titans Def. will also stuff Cincy's anemic offense. I see the Titans winning by 10. Good luck to all just my 2 cents. More 2 cents...USC 55 Oh. St. 21 Edited September 13, 2008 by stduke Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted September 13, 2008 Author Share Posted September 13, 2008 I think you guys are on the right track w/ Ten *wink wink* Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whomper Posted September 13, 2008 Share Posted September 13, 2008 (edited) gotta bump this baby........... games I am liking right now- thoughts and input appreciated!! Strong College play for me tonight- Baylor -3. line opened at WSU -2.5 MIN +1 CAR -3 OAK +3.5 SF +7.5 Nice call. I dont know college at all so I usually tail guys I know in here. I wasnt sure if this was posted today (Saturday) so I went and looked for the game only to find out it was played last night. Nice work though Edited September 13, 2008 by whomper Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MustOfBeenDrunk Posted September 13, 2008 Share Posted September 13, 2008 9470 Saints -1 110 100 9471 Giants / Rams over 41.5 55 50 9472 Falcons 7.5 55 50 9616 Auburn -10 22 20 9617 Western Michigan -9 22 20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SheikYerbuti Posted September 13, 2008 Share Posted September 13, 2008 Anyone think the Saints at Washington line is a little ? It's within one point of a pick'em depending on where you look. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MustOfBeenDrunk Posted September 13, 2008 Share Posted September 13, 2008 Anyone think the Saints at Washington line is a little ? It's within one point of a pick'em depending on where you look. i did when it came out but it has not moved more 1/2 point ? i believe that is because of Colstons injury ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted September 14, 2008 Author Share Posted September 14, 2008 A reminder prior to the plays: My system has not kicked in, so all plays are based on my own handicapping methods. As good or bad as these plays may turn out, I anticipate stronger results as the season progresses and my system syncs up more and more. Season to date record for Sharp Football Analysis plays: 7-1 Week 2 Plays: Chi +3.5 Ten +1 Was going to make Pit/Cle O 44.5 but due to Ike in Cle tomorrow night, not likely going to make this play. May actually play Under, will see tomorrow AM. Week 2 Comment: Typically have a short list and from it, my plays. Usually 50-70% of my short list makes my plays. I am very selective from the jump and very focused. This week, my short list is about the same size, but only ~40% of my short list plays have made official play status so far. I still have several plays which I am leaning on, but have not been able to officially release tonight due to a variety of situations surrounding the plays. They don't have my full confidence level. Therefore, you can expect to see at least one, or likely two plays released on Sunday AM. So please do not be disappointed by the small number of plays thus far. Sometimes weeks are like this, and that's all I can tell you about that. Writeups: Chi +3.5 I know the only saying about taking a team off a Primetime, Nationally televised win such as SNF or MNF and playing them the following week. People, including some "sharps" are commenting on it. But what is the truth? The truth is, teams coming off a game such as this who won as a road dog and are now the favorites have gone 12-20 ATS since 2002. Including 2-3 ATS last season. Not so hot. But that's not what we have here. Here we have an undervalued dog who is a dog again for the second week in a row. Teams who played SNF or MNF and won as a road dog and are dogs for a 2nd straight week are actually 6-2 ATS since 2002 and 2-0 ATS last season. That stat isn't necessarily a REASON to take Chi, it's more the "truth" behind some of the numbers you may have seen. As you may know from my style, I'm always one to investigate a stat/trend and find the answer for myself. The fact is, if Chi became a favorite for Sunday's game simply because they looked great on SNF, I wouldn't like them as much. But Car pulled off a "stunner" to many (remember, I had Car + points last week) out in SD, and now are returning home a town hero. And they've been crowned the 3.5 point favorite on Sunday. I like Chi in this spot to cover the 3.5, and a couple of reasons I can share are: * As good as Carolina is as a road dog at pulling off upsets, when they get back home they lose gas and are just 1-4 ATS (since 2002) in games following a road dog victory towards the 1st half of the season. * Carolina is 1-5 SU and 1-5 ATS in their home openers under John Fox, including 0-5 SU as a favorite. Chicago, meanwhile, is 4-0 SU in week 2 games under Lovie Smith. Ten +1 Since 2002, Tennessee has faced the following teams in Week 2: Indy 3 times, SD once, Dal once, Bal once. Which week 2 was not like the others? If you guessed Bal, you would be right. Ten won that game 25-10 on a +3.5 line. Ten is going to be glad to face this Cincy team in week 2 as opposed to a NFL power like they have in prior seasons. * After winning at home as an underdog, then hitting the road as a dog the following week, Ten is 5-1 ATS including 3-0 since 2002. * Cincy on the other hand is merely mediocre when following up a road loss back at home. They are 3-3-3 ATS under Marvin Lewis after losing on the road and returning home as a fav. * The game after facing Jacksonville and getting a win, Tennessee is 6-1 ATS since 2002. * Bengals are 0-2-1 ATS under Marvin Lewis following a loss to the Ravens. (Remember, Marvin Lewis coached for Baltimore and those matchups vs. the Ravens are big games for him). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whomper Posted September 14, 2008 Share Posted September 14, 2008 I think the Pats +1 is the way I am going to go. The Jets vs Miami was in question until 1 minute left in the game. I know the Pats /KC was too but they had the burden of losing Brady that day. I think Bellicheck has them ready and the win this game Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildcat2334 Posted September 14, 2008 Share Posted September 14, 2008 aight fells -lets win some dough today!! early OAK +3.5 Tenn pk Minn/Ind U43.5 Car -3 ( saw Dre's play- already bet it and I like Car here.....we shall see) MInn & GB parlay - just b/c I like action............ later NE pk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted September 14, 2008 Share Posted September 14, 2008 no time for my thoughts on each game, so here are my plays this week: Rams +8.5 NYJ/NE over 37 Green Bay -3 Buffalo +4 Cleveland +6.5 tonight.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildcat2334 Posted September 14, 2008 Share Posted September 14, 2008 (edited) fellas - a little food for thought since 4 of these haven't kicked yet. Below are the consensus top 5 picks in the NFL Hilton contest - the top 5 have usually been pretty solid plays - just thought I would throw em out for comparing.... NE BUFF SF DEN PITT Edited September 14, 2008 by wildcat2334 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted September 14, 2008 Author Share Posted September 14, 2008 Hope you guys have been tailing. 3-0 in my posted plays today. Huge dog winners on Oak and Ten, and got the win on Chi +3.5. Brings the record to 10-1 to start the season! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildcat2334 Posted September 14, 2008 Share Posted September 14, 2008 aight fells -lets win some dough today!! early OAK +3.5 Tenn pk Minn/Ind U43.5 Car -3 ( saw Dre's play- already bet it and I like Car here.....we shall see) MInn & GB parlay - just b/c I like action............ later NE pk nice start only L was my parlay which should have been a W - Minny blew that game badly afternoon: Den -1.5 NE -1 strong Dre- that hook on Chi treated ya nice- push here. good luck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SheikYerbuti Posted September 14, 2008 Share Posted September 14, 2008 Loaded up on TENN! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trots Posted September 14, 2008 Share Posted September 14, 2008 Hope you guys have been tailing. 3-0 in my posted plays today. Huge dog winners on Oak and Ten, and got the win on Chi +3.5. Brings the record to 10-1 to start the season! I tailed but never saw Oakland. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted September 14, 2008 Share Posted September 14, 2008 I tailed but never saw Oakland. Didn't see it either...I am keeping a spreadsheet to keep track of plays to get a feeling of who is trending well, and I only had Dre for CHI & TEN. Can't find a mention of OAK anywhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MustOfBeenDrunk Posted September 14, 2008 Share Posted September 14, 2008 Didn't see it either...I am keeping a spreadsheet to keep track of plays to get a feeling of who is trending well, and I only had Dre for CHI & TEN. Can't find a mention of OAK anywhere i know i wish i would of paid more attention to your ( swammi ) on the Saints play that was my play of the week Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SheikYerbuti Posted September 14, 2008 Share Posted September 14, 2008 i know i wish i would of paid more attention to your ( swammi ) on the Saints play that was my play of the week I think that was me ?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MustOfBeenDrunk Posted September 14, 2008 Share Posted September 14, 2008 I think that was me ?? my bad ,, it was you and i still should of listened and backed off a little !! i played three other winners not posted here but not going to claim them ( be cause i didn't post them ) would of been a wash anyways because i doubled up on my Saints wager Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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