What's the knock on Marshawn Lynch?

[CardinalEmpire.com]

It seems like the guy has really slipped this year in the mock drafts I am doing. I'm picking him late 4th round in the ones I have been fiddling with of late. I know he's going to miss the first three games with the drug suspension, but after that what's not to like? If you can get a late-round sleeper to hold the fort for those first three weeks, isn't Lynch a real prospect for a good season now that TO and Evans SHOULD keep defenses honest?

[piratesownninjas]

*Three Week suspension

*Looked average in pre season so far

*Has a history of being a knucklehead and is a prime candidate to get himself suspended again

*Fred Jackson and Dominic Rhodes are going to get touches when he comes back. I don't think he gets the 20-25 touches a game we've seen in the past.

[CardinalEmpire.com]

I'll give you the first point, but the second and third points seem pretty weak. Rhodes may be a 3rd-down pass-catching back and Jackson makes a nice change of pace, but neither is going to significantly cut into Lynch's carries. I've read, in fact, that Buffalo is spreading it out more and looking to involve Marshawn in the passing game.

 

Here's the way I see it. If I can sneak through the 4th round and grab Lynch there, while getting MJD at #2 and a couple of stud WR's in rounds 2 and 3 (Jennings, Wayne, White), I like my chances with Lynch. Add in a sleeper like Ray Rice or even take a flyer on Larry Johnson as backup later on in the draft and I think the roster could work out pretty nicely. Here's a mock I did a couple nights ago... 10-teamer, standard scoring (no PPR).

 

R1 - MJD

R2 - Greg Jennings

R3 - Reggie Wayne

R4 - Marshawn Lynch

R5 - Tony Romo

R6 - Ray Rice

R7 - DeSean Jackson

R8 - Matt Hasselbeck

R9 - Donald Brown

R10 - Ted Ginn, Jr.

R11 - Derrick Mason

R12 - John Carlson

R13 - Schiancoe

R14 - Pat D/ST

R15 - Chris Henry (CIN WR)

R16 - Kris Brown

 

Seems pretty solid to me...

[DMD]

What bothers me most is that Lynch has just not seemed to step up to his potential. And he had one of the easiest schedules in the league last year and did little with it.

[BearBroncos]

*Three Week suspension

*Looked average in pre season so far

*Has a history of being a knucklehead and is a prime candidate to get himself suspended again

*Fred Jackson and Dominic Rhodes are going to get touches when he comes back. I don't think he gets the 20-25 touches a game we've seen in the past.

 

I think Lynch should be very concerned with the acquisition of Rhodes. To me, this is a move to mentor Jackson to take that role if Lynch continues to have marginal games and an arrogant attitude.

[Bronco Billy]

I'll give you the first point, but the second and third points seem pretty weak. Rhodes may be a 3rd-down pass-catching back and Jackson makes a nice change of pace, but neither is going to significantly cut into Lynch's carries.

 

Well, let's see. Lynch will miss 25% of the FF regular season for starters. He has 2 RBs on the roster who have proven themselves to be capable in a starting role as NFL RBs, both rushing the football and catching the football - in fact, Jackson has proven himself to be more productive than Lynch and Rhodes is on about an equal plane as Lynch. Both competing RBs can absorb 200+ touches easily. Lynch has not proven himself to be anything other than an average starting RB at the NFL level. Lynch has a penchant for trouble, is extremely immature, and is petulant. Lynch can get himself in a position where he is suspended for multiple games again this season.

 

Your question ought to be, why would BUF want to go with Lynch as the featured RB given the risk he presents, his average performance so far in his career, and the other viable and credible options that BUF has?

 

There's no way he justifies burning a 4th rounder to bring his risk of decreased workload/average performance/suspension-benching risk on board a FF roster.

[Belushi]

Let's not forget the state of the Bill's O-line. Maybe the worst in the league. I'd say that's a pretty big knock against a guy that did very little with a much better line last year, aside from the numerous other points listed above.

[CardinalEmpire.com]

What bothers me most is that Lynch has just not seemed to step up to his potential. And he had one of the easiest schedules in the league last year and did little with it.

 

When he was a 2nd round pick (even borderline 1st-rounder in a lot of cases), I agree. But as a 4th-rounder, a 2nd or 3rd back on your team, I think he's going to be solid even with the suspension. The guy has finished Top 15 every year he's played and I'm just not buying Jackson/Rhodes taking his job. He'll get to rest for the first three weeks and maybe even have stronger legs at the end of the year when your playoffs roll around.

[Bronco Billy]

When he was a 2nd round pick (even borderline 1st-rounder in a lot of cases), I agree. But as a 4th-rounder, a 2nd or 3rd back on your team, I think he's going to be solid even with the suspension. The guy has finished Top 15 every year he's played and I'm just not buying Jackson/Rhodes taking his job. He'll get to rest for the first three weeks and maybe even have stronger legs at the end of the year when your playoffs roll around.

 

If this thread was created to make you feel better about picking Lynch in the 4th round, I think you came to the wrong place. I can't justify using anything before a 6th rounder on him given all the circumstances - and personally I wouldn't go that high.

 

And lol at stronger legs. He'll also have 3 weeks - where he can not practice with the team - to get out of football shape. That could mean diminished returns of another couple of weeks before he's even up to full speed.

[loaf]

I took him in the 7th Round (10 Teams) as a potential RB3. I wouldn't trust him to be a 2...

[NAUgrad]

What bothers me most is that Lynch has just not seemed to step up to his potential. And he had one of the easiest schedules in the league last year and did little with it.

This is a good point. However, the oline I believe was banged up last year. Not sure if there is much improvement, but it did seem like the oline was improved from game 1 to game 2.

[CardinalEmpire.com]

Not looking for anyone to make me feel better... I haven't even done an official draft yet (this is all based on mocks). I'm stating my case and seeing what the case against him is. I've been swayed to go another route by this thread, maybe choosing Derrick Ward instead. Heck, I may even play it safe and take Rice in the 4th round and avoid any chance someone snipes him.

[Bronco Billy]

I've been swayed to go another route by this thread, maybe choosing Derrick Ward instead. Heck, I may even play it safe and take Rice in the 4th round and avoid any chance someone snipes him.

 

 

Is this a 24 team league?

[CardinalEmpire.com]

No, is there a reason you are trying to be such a d-bag in this thead?

[Bronco Billy]

No, is there a reason you are trying to be such a d-bag in this thead?

 

No, there's 2 reasons: because it's my nature and because you're not making sense.

[CardinalEmpire.com]

As long as you are aware, I guess. And since I'm not making sense, how about you suggest a good RB2 to take in the 35-45 range.

[Bronco Billy]

As long as you are aware, I guess. And since I'm not making sense, how about you suggest a good RB2 to take in the 35-45 range.

 

Ryan Grant

Ronnie Brown

Pierre Thomas

Reggie Bush (in a ppr)

Kevin Smith

 

They are all dropping into that range in drafts - you'll see at least 2 of them available. They are all better options than Lynch (or Rice or Ward).

Edited August 26, 2009 by Bronco Billy

[CardinalEmpire.com]

Ryan Grant

Ronnie Brown

Pierre Thomas

Reggie Bush (in a ppr)

Kevin Smith

 

They are all dropping into that range in drafts - you'll see at least 2 of them available. They are all better options than Lynch (or Rice or Ward).

 

So do you play in an 8-team league? Other than Bush, I have yet to see any of those guys fall to the end of the 4th round. If they do, I'll take them. But none of my mocks have indicated that those guys will be available at pick 39. Since I'm not in a PPR, I don't think Bush is better than Rice/Ward.

[Bronco Billy]

So do you play in an 8-team league? Other than Bush, I have yet to see any of those guys fall to the end of the 4th round. If they do, I'll take them. But none of my mocks have indicated that those guys will be available at pick 39. Since I'm not in a PPR, I don't think Bush is better than Rice/Ward.

 

I'll be happy to link you to real 12 team drafts with very good FFers where at least some of those guys are dropping into the 35-45 range. Draft philosophy has changed dramatically. You must not be following a lot of drafts.

 

And agreed if not a ppr that Bush doesn't belong. But then Rice clearly doesn't either and falls below Bush..

Edited August 26, 2009 by Bronco Billy

[Caveman_Nick]

I took Marshawn Lynch at 4.11. When I look back (draft is in the 7th round now), I don't particularly regret it.

 

Lynch has a fair shot at being a solid #2 when he gets back. I will figure out how to limp through the first 3 weeks.

 

The thing is that by not taking a back in rounds 2 and 3 I have managed to collect Calvin Johnson (a gift at 2.11) and Steve Smith for a WR tandem, so I will take Lynch to pair with AD at RB. I have a choice of Braylon Edwards and Brandon Marshall at Flex.

 

I think it just depends on how the draft is looking. Some folks would rather have Cedric Benson, Thomas Jones, Larry Johnson, Knowshon Moreno, or several others for a later selected RB2. I think Lynch has the upside to be better than any of those guys once he returns.

[CardinalEmpire.com]

I'll be happy to link you to real 12 team drafts with very good FFers where at least some of those guys are dropping into the 35-45 range. Draft philosophy has changed dramatically. You must not be following a lot of drafts.

 

And agreed if not a ppr that Bush doesn't belong. But then Rice clearly doesn't either and falls below Bush..

 

An exception does not prove the rule, just FYI. I'm sure there are good 12-team leagues where Ryan Grant fell to 40. That doesn't mean I should expect him to be there. If he is, fantastic... I'll be dancing my way to the playoffs. But saying I should count on two of those guys you listed seems a little wishful. It isn't happening on average (as shown by the ADP's). They are close and maybe they do fall to me, but right now it looks like they are early to mid-4th rounders, not late 4th/early 5th rounders.

 

And how can you dismiss Rice when the same "good FFers" are saying the guy isn't dropping below the 4th round in their drafts? Is he a PPR back, too, and I just am not aware? Watching him at Rutgers, he sure looked like an every-down guy.

[CardinalEmpire.com]

And that has been my philosophy this year as well, Nick. I'd rather get two really solid WR's in R2/R3, then see what RB I can snag in the 4th. Choosing among Lynch/Rice/LJ seems to be a better move than going MJD/Portis/Roddy White, then being stuck choosing between Vincent Jackson, DeSean Jackson, OchoCinco, and Roy Williams.

[Bronco Billy]

An exception does not prove the rule, just FYI. I'm sure there are good 12-team leagues where Ryan Grant fell to 40. That doesn't mean I should expect him to be there. If he is, fantastic... I'll be dancing my way to the playoffs. But saying I should count on two of those guys you listed seems a little wishful. It isn't happening on average (as shown by the ADP's). They are close and maybe they do fall to me, but right now it looks like they are early to mid-4th rounders, not late 4th/early 5th rounders.

 

And how can you dismiss Rice when the same "good FFers" are saying the guy isn't dropping below the 4th round in their drafts? Is he a PPR back, too, and I just am not aware? Watching him at Rutgers, he sure looked like an every-down guy.

 

You aren't listening.

 

That's fine - it's your team and you can do as you please. Good luck.

[Bronco Billy]

I'll make one last attempt.

 

Here are ADP rankings from mfl.com from after August 15th (meaning most probably real drafts instead of mock drafts):

 

link

 

12 team leagues, redraft

 

23 2.11 Portis, Clinton WAS RB

24 2.12 Smith, Steve CAR WR

25 3.01 White, Roddy ATL WR

26 3.02 Boldin, Anquan ARI WR

27 3.03 Colston, Marques NOS WR

28 3.04 Brown, Ronnie MIA RB

29 3.05 Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB

30 3.06 Welker, Wes NEP WR

31 3.07 Thomas, Pierre NOS RB

32 3.08 Owens, Terrell BUF WR

33 3.09 Smith, Kevin DET RB

34 3.10 Grant, Ryan GBP RB

35 3.11 Bowe, Dwayne KCC WR

36 3.12 Rivers, Philip SDC QB

37 4.01 Witten, Jason DAL TE

38 4.02 Houshmandzadeh, T.J. SEA WR

39 4.03 Bush, Reggie NOS RB

40 4.04 McFadden, Darren OAK RB

41 4.05 Warner, Kurt ARI QB

42 4.06 Ochocinco, Chad CIN WR

43 4.07 Romo, Tony DAL QB

44 4.08 Williams, Roy DAL WR

45 4.09 Gates, Antonio SDC TE

46 4.1 Marshall, Brandon DEN WR

47 4.11 Lynch, Marshawn BUF RB

48 4.12 Gonzalez, Tony ATL TE

49 5.01 Jackson, Vincent SDC WR

50 5.02 Addai, Joseph IND RB

51 5.03 McNabb, Donovan PHI QB

52 5.04 Edwards, Braylon CLE WR

53 5.05 Gonzalez, Anthony IND WR

54 5.06 Jackson, DeSean PHI WR

55 5.07 Moreno, Knowshon DEN RB

56 5.08 Clark, Dallas IND TE

57 5.09 Jones, Thomas NYJ RB

58 5.1 Royal, Eddie DEN WR

59 5.11 Ward, Derrick TBB RB

60 5.12 Johnson, Larry KCC RB

61 6.01 Ryan, Matt ATL QB

62 6.02 Holmes, Santonio PIT WR

63 6.03 Schaub, Matt HOU QB

64 6.04 Parker, Willie PIT RB

65 6.05 Cutler, Jay CHI QB

66 6.06 Rice, Ray BAL RB

 

Look at where Brown, Thomas, Smith, Grant, and Bush are going. These are average rankings - chances are at least a couple of them slip further in your draft.

 

Hell, even Portis is lasting until #23. That's absurd!

 

Now look at the guys you are targeting: Lynch, Ward, and Rice. You don't think taking them in the 4th round is a bit early?

[CardinalEmpire.com]

Now look at the guys you are targeting: Lynch, Ward, and Rice. You don't think taking them in the 4th round is a bit early?

 

Early, yes. But I don't mind reaching a little for a guy who I think is going to jump out and become a Top 15 back (Ray Rice). Especially since there's a good chance Rice won't be there at pick 59 (based on his ascension so far). The alternative is you telling me I can choose players who won't even be there for the taking. As I said, if the guys you listed fall there, it's a no-brainer. But I don't buy that those guys are going to fall from early 30's all the way to the 39th pick. With that premise, I'll take a guy like Rice over a TE (I think there is value late this year), a 3rd WR (like OchoCinco or Roy Williams), or a QB (I think I can get Romo on the turn in R5 and then grab Hasselbeck really late as a backup).