NCAA Tournament

[buddahj]

The Huddle has it's own Joe Lunardi! Tremendous job Gopher!

+1 Awesome insight!!!

[Chief Dick]

The Huddle has it's own Joe Lunardi! Tremendous job Gopher!

 

No.

 

ESPN has their own Gopher.

[Gopher]

Interesting week so far... Not a lot of surprises in the smaller conferences, which means the bubble isn't really shrinking. In other words, no bids have been "stolen" by lesser teams winning their tournaments, so far. The one exception is Ohio beating Kent State today, but that probably has no impact on the field, either... I don't think Kent State was deserving of an at-large bid, even prior to their 17-point loss today.

 

What's funny, though, is that several of the bubble teams have failed to take advantage of what has happened... South Florida and Seton Hall both lost by double-digits in the 2nd round of the Big East, Memphis and UAB (badly) in C-USA, Wake (although they're probably in anyway) lost by 21 to Miami in the ACC, and Charlotte to UMass in the Atlantic 10. Really, the only teams who appear to be taking advantage, and possibly securing their bids, are Notre Dame (they leave no doubt after today's win against Pitt), Cincinnati (may still need to win tonight against WV), San Diego State (and they BARELY got by Colorado State), and Florida (who beat Auburn today).

 

By the time this is all said and done, I'm hoping we see at least a couple of surprises play their way in... Otherwise, the way things are going, the committee is going to have a hard time finding 65 teams worthy of getting in. Instead of having to pick which teams (that are playing well) don't get in, they may be doing just the opposite... picking the teams that ended their season on a sour note, but not as sour as some of the others.

 

The other thing that may happen, as a result of all of this parity, is this... Teams that were written off a week ago, like Georgia Tech and Minnesota, could likely make their way into the field by beating a higher-seeded team in their respective tournaments. All they've done so far is win games that they SHOULD have won, against lower seeded teams, so I think they both need to win tomorrow to solidify their chances. But, considering the experts were saying that they both needed to win their tournaments to get in, a week ago, a lot has changed. Due to an increasingly weak field/bubble this year, winning just one upset tournament game might be all that it takes, considering a lot of the original bubble teams couldn't even do that. It won't be easy... Georgia Tech would have to beat Maryland, and Minnesota takes on Michigan State, but stranger things have happened.

 

As crazy as it sounds, another team that may be in a similar position is St. Louis. Originally, it was thought that there was absolutely no way that St. Louis would make the field, short of winning the A-10 tourney. What's unusual about the Billikens is that their in-conference performance was significantly better than their record out of conference. They're the #4 seed in their tournament, and teams seeded below them (Rhode Island, Dayton, and Charlotte) are considered bubble teams. Yet, St. Louis is not in the conversation. Why? Their RPI is high (currently 83), strength of schedule is weak (109), and they have a number of bad losses (four against teams with triple-digit RPI's).

 

What is interesting, though, is that St. Louis not only performed well in their conference, they performed well against the BEST teams in their conference including those bubble teams. St. Louis swept Dayton, beat Rhode Island in their only meeting, and split with Richmond, who is already considered in the tournament. Although they lost to Temple and Xavier, the top two teams in the conference, they were losses by margins of six and two points, respectively. They also lost by two on the road to Charlotte in their only meeting, so St. Louis finished 4-4 against those other five teams. The only reason they weren't considered a bubble team was because of their high RPI. If they can beat Rhode Island again tomorrow, not only would the Billikens' RPI improve, they would also start to generate some conversation as a possible bubble team. Taking it one step further, if they were to beat #1 seed Temple in the semi-finals, I think they would be in the tournament, whether they go on to win the final or not.

 

The other big story from today is Syracuse not only losing to Georgetown, but also potentially losing starting big man Arinze Onuaku. I personally don't think this loss will take a #1 seed away from the Orange. Arinze is a good player, but he's not the star or team leader that Robbie Hummel was to Purdue. Syracuse is still almost a lock for a #1... Several things would have to go wrong for them to not get one. The bigger question is whether or not they are still a contender for the national championship. I think it's too early to say... somebody else will have to step up from their bench, as they only went seven deep to begin with. Super sixth-man Kris Joseph will more than likely move into the starting lineup, which means both he and star forward Wes Johnson will have to take a bigger role in rebounding, due to Arinze's absence.

Edited March 12, 2010 by Gopher

[Gopher]

Interesting week so far... Not a lot of surprises in the smaller conferences, which means the bubble isn't really shrinking. In other words, no bids have been "stolen" by lesser teams winning their tournaments, so far. The one exception is Ohio beating Kent State today, but that probably has no impact on the field, either... I don't think Kent State was deserving of an at-large bid, even prior to their 17-point loss today.

 

What's funny, though, is that several of the bubble teams have failed to take advantage of what has happened... South Florida and Seton Hall both lost by double-digits in the 2nd round of the Big East, Memphis and UAB (badly) in C-USA, Wake (although they're probably in anyway) lost by 21 to Miami in the ACC, and Charlotte to UMass in the Atlantic 10. Really, the only teams who appear to be taking advantage, and possibly securing their bids, are Notre Dame (they leave no doubt after today's win against Pitt), Cincinnati (may still need to win tonight against WV), San Diego State (and they BARELY got by Colorado State), and Florida (who beat Auburn today).

 

By the time this is all said and done, I'm hoping we see at least a couple of surprises play their way in... Otherwise, the way things are going, the committee is going to have a hard time finding 65 teams worthy of getting in. Instead of having to pick which teams (that are playing well) don't get in, they may be doing just the opposite... picking the teams that ended their season on a sour note, but not as sour as some of the others.

It gets worse... Arizona State loses to Stanford, Clemson to N.C. State, and Washington trails Oregon State by double-digits in the first half. The term "playing their way into the tournament" is starting to take on a new meaning... No longer do you have to pull off an upset, or string of upsets. Just beat SOMEBODY... ANYBODY!! Maybe the committee should just make it the Field of 60 this year, instead of 65, since the 16-seeds never win anyway. Just seed 1-15 and give the top four a bye. At least, that way, they'll be able to find enough worthy squads.

 

Some late games tonight, so I'll wait until the AM to update my projected seeds.

[Scooby's Hubby]

Notre Dame and probably Louisville get in...look out for those guys if they are 11 or 12 seeds

[Chief Dick]

It gets worse... Arizona State loses to Stanford, Clemson to N.C. State, and Washington trails Oregon State by double-digits in the first half. The term "playing their way into the tournament" is starting to take on a new meaning... No longer do you have to pull off an upset, or string of upsets. Just beat SOMEBODY... ANYBODY!! Maybe the committee should just make it the Field of 60 this year, instead of 65, since the 16-seeds never win anyway. Just seed 1-15 and give the top four a bye. At least, that way, they'll be able to find enough worthy squads.

 

Some late games tonight, so I'll wait until the AM to update my projected seeds.

 

Wait until they expand to 96 teams.

[Bonedaddies]

So Gopher,

 

What are your thoughts on the Big 12 vs. the Big East, the Big 12 hold seed perfectly and the Big East has only one of the top 4 seeds left.

 

Does this mean anything in your opinion? Is the Big East that much deeper, or is the top of the Big 12 that much better than the rest?

[Gopher]

So Gopher,

 

What are your thoughts on the Big 12 vs. the Big East, the Big 12 hold seed perfectly and the Big East has only one of the top 4 seeds left.

 

Does this mean anything in your opinion? Is the Big East that much deeper, or is the top of the Big 12 that much better than the rest?

Yes, I think the Big East is deeper than the Big 12. They have more teams in the top 10 (3 to 2). in the top 25 (5 to 4), and more in the RPI top 50 (8 to 7). Comparing the two conferences' top seven teams, though, it is fairly close. Syracuse, Nova, West Virginia, Pitt, Georgetown, Marquette, and Louisville, as a group, compare very similarly to KU, KSU, Baylor, Texas, A&M, Mizzou, and OSU. It's after the top seven that the Big East has significantly more depth than the Big 12... Notre Dame, Seton Hall (59), Cincinnati (60), UConn (63), and South Florida (70) are the 8-12 teams in the Big East, at least in terms of RPI. The Big 12's 8th best team is Texas Tech, whose RPI is 69. After that, though, there is a significant drop-off in quality... Oklahoma (116), Colorado (119), Iowa State (122), and Nebraska (145) are all 50-70 spots behind their Big East counterparts.

 

But, you have to remember that the Big East basically took some of the top programs from Conference USA when they expanded in 2003... Louisville, Cincinnati, South Florida, and Marquette are four of the top ten teams in the Big East this year (and Marquette, Louisville, and Cincinnati have historically been much more significant players, on a national level, than they are this year). Take those four teams out, and the conferences are pretty even, in terms of talent, teams in the top 25, etc. Just for kicks, if we take those four out of the equation, and look at the 12 that are left, in comparison to the Big 12 (in order of seedings this year, with RPI in parentheses), here is what we have:

 

1-seeds: Syracuse (5) - Kansas (1)

2-seeds: Pitt (16) - KSU (6)

3-seeds: West Virginia (4) - Baylor (7)

4-seeds: Nova (10) - Texas A&M (11)

5-seeds: Notre Dame (46) - Missouri (43)

6-seeds: Georgetown (9 ) - Texas (28)

7-seeds: Seton Hall (59) - OSU (29)

8-seeds: UConn (63) - Colorado (119)

9-seeds: St. John's (82) - Texas Tech (69)

10-seeds: Rutgers (159) - Oklahoma (116)

11-seeds: Providence (135) - Iowa State (122)

12-seeds DePaul (211) - Nebraska (145)

 

Big East total (adding all twelve RPI numbers together): 799

Big 12 total: 696

 

So, one could make the argument that, without the 2003 expansion teams, the Big 12 would be the stronger conference of the two this year. The 103 point gap is somewhat misleading, though, since DePaul and Rutgers' RPI numbers are so bad that they account for nearly all of the 103-point difference. I actually think the two lists above are very even this year, top to bottom. Still, I would probably give the edge in the top half (1-6) to the Big East, while the bottom half (7-12) is better in the Big 12.

 

The Big East is a brutal conference... Cincinnati, for example, was on the verge of being in the top 25, prior to entering conference play. Then, they just got beat up in conference, and are now most likely an NIT team as a result. Georgetown is another good example... A legitimate top 15-20 team in the country, they ended up as the 8-SEED in their conference tournament. That's crazy. Too many good teams in one conference can sometimes be a bad thing... teams who would otherwise get in the tournament easily, get left out due to a ridiculously hard conference schedule. There is no "night off" in Big East play, except for maybe DePaul this year. That's why you're seeing the top four struggle in their tournament. The top four, in terms of conference record, might not be the best four teams, on any given night. Is Georgetown the 8th best team in that conference? Doubtful. But, they had the 8th best record.

 

As for the Big 12, I think you have to split the conference into tiers. The conference, as a whole, is split into two tiers... the seven teams that have been locks to get in the tournament for about three weeks now, and the bottom five (all of which have been out of the picture for a month or more). If you want to take it one step further, there are "tiers" within those two tiers.

 

Tier 5 - Iowa State and Nebraska are not good (although ISU played well enough to beat KSU last week)

Tier 4 - OU, TTech, and Colorado... Not as bad as the two above. In fact, at times, these teams (particularly OU and Tech) haven't been bad at all. But, none of them have been consistent enough to put themselves in the tournament conversation. One could make the argument that Colorado should be in Tier 5.

Tier 3 - Texas and OSU - Teams that are good enough to make the dance, but probably not good enough to win more than one game. Texas has been horribly inconsistent. I've only seen bits and pieces of the Cowboys this year, but I'm grouping them in with Texas, based on their record/ranking.

Tier 2 - I really like Baylor a lot. KSU, other than in the Iowa State loss, has proven that they're legit. Texas A&M is good enough that I lean towards grouping them with Baylor and KSU, rather than Texas and OSU. I think these Tier 2 teams have a real chance at making a 2-3 win run in the tournament, particularly KSU and Baylor. I could see A&M getting to the Sweet 16, but probably not much further.

Tier 1 - I have to put KU in a class of their own, as I think they're probably the one team in this conference that can win it all. I think Baylor could reach a Final Four, if they play well enough and catch a few breaks, but Kansas is in a class by themselves, as the 2 total losses all season indicates.

 

Lastly, you have to somewhat take the conference tournaments with a grain of salt. How many times have we seen a team win their tournament in dominating fashion, only to come out flat and lose in the opening round of the NCAA's? Conversely, it's not uncommon to see a team that loses in the opening round of their conference tournament, make a run deep into March or early April. So, I'm not reading too much into teams like Nova, Syracuse, and Pitt losing. Obviously, they have the talent (and certainly the proven coaches) to turn things around and play well next week. Whether they will or not is a different story. What teams like Kansas, KSU, and Baylor need to be careful of is falling into a state of complacency. It's one thing to win games against conference opponents, who you're familiar with (and have already beaten this year). It's another to face a team who has dominated their own conference, and comes in to the tournament hungry. For as many coaches who will tell you that it's a good thing to enter the tournament on a win streak, there are just as many who would say that they would rather start the tournament coming off a bad loss, just to get their players re-focused.

[Gopher]

Unbelievable... Evan Turner hits a 35-footer at the buzzer to beat Michigan by one, and keep OSU's hopes alive for a #1 seed. Michigan played a great game today, but I think they handled those last 2.2 seconds very poorly... Not putting anybody in the backcourt to pressure the ball allowed Turner to grab the inbounds pass, take two easy dribbles, and shoot the shot basically uncontested. If they pressure the inbounds passer, or at least pressure Turner as he brings the ball up-court, OSU gets a desperation half-court heave at best. Instead, he gets a very good look, although it was a long shot, and drains it.

 

On a side-note, what the hell was Thad Motta doing after that play? He ran to the middle of the sideline, and appeared to be either shouting obsceneties at the Michigan bench, at press row, or at the score-keeper. Maybe he was just trying to emphasize that the basket should count, since it left Turner's hand 1-2 tenths of a second before the buzzer, but Motta's lucky he didn't get T'd up.

 

Great shot by POY Evan Turner.

[major-tom]

San Diego St. is a lock now that they beat New Mexico. If UNLV can hold on against BYU they should be in as well.

[budlitebrad]

Unbelievable... Evan Turner hits a 35-footer at the buzzer to beat Michigan by one, and keep OSU's hopes alive for a #1 seed. Michigan played a great game today, but I think they handled those last 2.2 seconds very poorly... Not putting anybody in the backcourt to pressure the ball allowed Turner to grab the inbounds pass, take two easy dribbles, and shoot the shot basically uncontested. If they pressure the inbounds passer, or at least pressure Turner as he brings the ball up-court, OSU gets a desperation half-court heave at best. Instead, he gets a very good look, although it was a long shot, and drains it.

 

On a side-note, what the hell was Thad Motta doing after that play? He ran to the middle of the sideline, and appeared to be either shouting obsceneties at the Michigan bench, at press row, or at the score-keeper. Maybe he was just trying to emphasize that the basket should count, since it left Turner's hand 1-2 tenths of a second before the buzzer, but Motta's lucky he didn't get T'd up.

 

Great shot by POY Evan Turner.

 

I don't know what the hell Beilein was thinking letting Turner run down the floor, but I'll take it.

 

I think Matta was just screaming at the refs, saying the shot counted. He doesn't seem like the trash talking type.

[Bonedaddies]

Thanks for the take Gopher!

 

This will be a nice one-stop shop b/f I finalize my bracket. There are some scary teams that will be a 6 seed or higher, I would bet they are careful with who gets a 8/9 seed otherwise the # 1's could get tested quick! Can't wait until Sunday night!!

[Gopher]

Updated (including RPI rankings) on 3/13:

 

GREEN = OFFICIALLY IN

BLUE = IN (my opinion)

RED = ON THE BUBBLE

ORANGE = Teams that steal a bid by winning their tournament, that would otherwise not have made it

 

ACC

America East - Vermont (25-9)

Atlantic Sun - East Tennessee State (20-14)

Atlantic 10

Big 12 - Kansas (32-2)

Big East West Virginia (27-6)

Big Sky - Montana (22-9)

Big South - Winthrop (19-13)

Big Ten

Big West - UC-Santa Barbara (20-9)

Colonial Athletic - Old Dominion (26-8)

Conference USA - Houston (19-15)

Horizon - Butler (28-4)

Ivy - Cornell (27-4)

MAC - Ohio (21-14)

MAAC - Siena (27-6)

MEAC - Morgan State (27-9)

Missouri Valley - Northern Iowa (28-4)

Mountain West - San Diego State (25-8)

Northeast - Robert Morris (23-11)

Ohio Valley - Murray State (30-4)

Pac-10 - Washington

Patriot - Lehigh (22-10)

Southeastern

Southern - Wofford (26-8)

Southland - Sam Houston State (25-7)

Summit - Oakland (26-8)

Sun Belt - North Texas (24-8)

SWAC - AR-Pine Bluff (17-15)

West Coast - St. Mary's (26-6)

Western Athletic - New Mexico State (22-11)

 

Western Athletic - Utah State (26)

Big Ten - Ohio State (27), Purdue (10), Michigan State (29), Wisconsin (21), Minnesota (68), Illinois (69)

ACC - Duke (2), Maryland (23), Clemson (34), Florida State (41), Virginia Tech (56), Wake Forest (37), Georgia Tech (35)

Atlantic 10 - Temple (15), Xavier (18), Richmond (25), Rhode Island (38)

Big East - Syracuse (5), Villanova (13), Pittsburgh (16), Georgetown (7), Marquette (50), Louisville (39), Notre Dame (48), Seton Hall (60), Cincinnati (61)

Big 12 - Kansas (1), Kansas State (6), Baylor (8), Missouri (44), Texas A&M (14), Texas (30), Oklahoma State (31)

Conference USA - UTEP (33)

Mountain West - New Mexico (9), BYU (22), UNLV (42)

Pac-10 - California (19)

Southeastern - Kentucky (3), Vanderbilt (20), Tennessee (11), Florida (54), Mississippi State (63), Mississippi (59)

West Coast - Gonzaga (40)

 

OUT:

Wichita State

Kent State

Connecticut

Charlotte

Arizona State

UAB

Memphis

St. Louis

South Florida

Dayton

Edited March 14, 2010 by Gopher

[Gopher]

Houston Cougars with the first stolen bid of the tournament, knocking off UTEP for the C-USA title. Great game between two exciting teams to watch. Coach Tom Penders has certainly been around the block... He has now taken Rhode Island, Texas, GW, and Houston to the NCAA tournament.

 

UTEP will still get an at-large bid, which means one of the other bubble teams just got knocked out... too early to tell which one, but teams like Seton Hall, Mississippi State, and Minnesota had to have been cheering for the UTEP Miners today.

[Gopher]

Instant classic in the Big Ten... Illinois has taken Ohio State to a second overtime. Unfortunately for the Illini, they failed to get a shot off before the buzzer, at the end of regulation as well as the first OT. Still, a great game, and Illinois has definitely secured their invite to the big dance over the past 36 hours.

[budlitebrad]

Instant classic in the Big Ten... Illinois has taken Ohio State to a second overtime. Unfortunately for the Illini, they failed to get a shot off before the buzzer, at the end of regulation as well as the first OT. Still, a great game, and Illinois has definitely secured their invite to the big dance over the past 36 hours.

 

+1 Awesome game.

 

Illinois let OSU back in and then couldn't win it at the end of the regulation and the first OT, but they should be in.

[Gopher]

Bubble teams playing today (Saturday):

 

Illinois - Probably in with their win over Wisconsin yesterday, but a 2OT loss today to OSU certainly didn't hurt them. Should be in.

 

Rhode Island - 13-point loss to top seed Temple... Not exactly what they needed to solidify a spot, but not the worst loss, either. If this had been a close game, I'd like their chances a lot more than I do. The Rams will probably be on the bubble right up until the last minute... could go either way.

 

Georgia Tech - Like Illinois, probably played their way in yesterday. Still, a loss against an inferior N.C. State team is not what they need, so it would be in their best interest to win today. Currently leading late in the first half... I like the Yellow Jackets' chances, at this point.

 

Mississippi State - Leading Vanderbilt at the half, in a game the Bulldogs probably need to make the tournament. MSU is lacking big wins, and this would be one of their best all season, if they can hold on.

 

Pac-10 Final: Cal vs. Washington - Both teams could definitely use this win to cement their chances. Washington, though, needs it more than Cal. Best-case scenario for Pac-10 fans would be Washington winning a close game. That would essentially eliminate any argument against both teams making the tournament.

 

Mountain West Final: UNLV vs. San Diego State - I think both of these teams may have played their way in yesterday, by beating top seeds BYU and New Mexico. Still, it would be in the best interest of both teams to not get blown out, which I think would be the only way either gets eliminated. If it's close, either way, I think the Mountain West is a four-bid conference, given how closely all four have played each other all season.

 

WAC Final: New Mexico State vs. Utah State - Critical game because it could be another potential bid-stealer. Utah State is arguably an at-large candidate if they lose. Best-case scenario for teams like Rhode Island, Minnesota, and Mississippi State is for Utah State to hold serve and eliminate their fellow Aggies from NMSU.

 

Edit: Forgot about Minnesota... Beat Purdue and they're in. Lose badly, and they're probably out. Lose a close one, and it will be too close to call. I think their resume is better than somebody like Mississippi State, but if they lose and MSU wins, it might be enough to keep the Gophers out.

Edited March 13, 2010 by Gopher

[budlitebrad]

Wow, Purdue may drop a couple seeds after that debacle.

 

Looking forward to the OSU-Minn matchup. Both teams are already in, but it should be a great game nonetheless.

[budlitebrad]

Hey Gopher,

 

Do you think it's one or the other with Minnesota and Illinois? Does the Gophers' win over Purdue hurt the Illini or have both teams done enough?

[Gopher]

Hey Gopher,

 

Do you think it's one or the other with Minnesota and Illinois? Does the Gophers' win over Purdue hurt the Illini or have both teams done enough?

I think Illinois played it's way in, officially, yesterday (by beating Wisconsin for the second time this year). The way they played OSU today certainly helped as well, even though they lost. Minnesota was on the fence going into today... I think they're now in as well. That means the Big Ten should get six bids.

 

Teams that could potentially be hurt by this would include Seton Hall, Mississippi State, Rhode Island, and Ole Miss... all of which have less quality wins (quality and quantity) than both Illinois and Minnesota.

 

What bothers me a little bit is that the CBS prognosticators (Clark Kellogg, Greg Anthony and Seth-what's-his-name) seem to think that today's result has everything to do with Purdue being so much worse without Hummel, and nothing to do with how well Minnesota played today. What they forget is that Purdue just beat Minnesota, without Hummel, after being down by double-digits (at Minnesota a week ago). The Gophers come back and absolutely destroy them today, and all of the sudden Purdue is terrible without Hummel. Sorry, I'm not buying that at all. Purdue may not be a #1 seed candidate any longer, but they are still one of the best defensive teams in the country, much less the Big Ten. I think they'll probably fall to a 3 or 4-seed, at the worst, based on how they finished the season (and moreso due to the fact that they won't have Hummel for the tournament). Mark my words, though... they're still talented enough, and definitely well-coached enough, to give anybody in the country trouble on a neutral court.

 

Two other things I'd like to mention... I still think Cal is in, no matter what happens today against Washington. If the Huskies win, the Pac-10 is a two-bid league. No way does Cal not make it in... they're a top 30 team in the country. For them to get snubbed would be the biggest travesty in ten years, in terms of NCAA selections.

 

Secondly, why is the Mountain West Final not on TV? The semi's were on last night, on the CBS College channel or whatever. Now, that channel has the Lehigh-American women's game. It's too bad, because UNLV and SDSU are both quality clubs that both just knocked off top-20 teams to get to the final. They deserve some recognition, and considering EVERY other conference final has been televised nationally, this one should be too.

[Gopher]

26 automatic bids have been claimed... five to go:

 

Western Athletic - Utah State vs. New Mexico State (under way as I type this) - Only game left this evening that could produce a surprise bid... If NMSU wins, the bubble will likely shrink by one spot, as Utah State would probably be awarded an at-large big tomorrow.

 

Sunday's games:

 

ACC - Georgia Tech vs. Duke (1 PM EST) - Georgia Tech is likely in either way, but a victory for them would officially reduce the number of available "bubble bids" by one.

 

Atlantic 10 - Richmond vs. Temple (1 PM EST) - Both are in, so this game only matters in terms of seedings for the two teams.

 

Big Ten - Minnesota vs. Ohio State (3:30 PM EST) - Similar to Georgia Tech/Duke game in that both are likely in, but a win for Minnesota would make it official. However, for argument's sake (and so I don't get accused of having bias towards MN), let's say they're on the bubble. In that case, they are in the same situation as New Mexico State... A MN win reduces the number of available spots.

 

Southeastern - Kentucky vs. Mississippi State (1 PM EST) - The key game that everyone involved will be watching tomorrow. Mississippi State has a weaker resume than Georgia Tech and Minnesota, so if anybody NEEDS to win tomorrow, it's the Bulldogs. The other teams on the bubble will be cheering hard for Kentucky.

 

Breakdown of all 65 spots:

 

26 automatics already clinched

5 winners of the conference finals above

28 at-large bids already decided (listed below)

 

Big Ten - Purdue, Michigan State, Wisconsin - 3

ACC - Maryland, Clemson, Florida State - 3

Atlantic 10 - Xavier, Richmond/Temple loser - 2

Big East - Syracuse, Villanova, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Louisville, Notre Dame, West Virginia/Georgetown loser - 7

Big 12 - Kansas State, Baylor, Missouri, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma State - 6

Conference USA - UTEP - 1

Mountain West - New Mexico, BYU - 2

Pac-10 - California - 1

Southeastern - Vanderbilt, Tennessee - 2

West Coast - Gonzaga - 1

 

26 + 5 + 28 = 59... That leaves six at-large bids left for all of the following teams... Obviously, if Minnesota or Mississippi State win tomorrow, they would get automatic bids, and the number of bids remaining for the other teams below would shrink. Either way, at least six of the following twelve teams will be left out. There is one last scenario... If New Mexico State wins tonight, Utah State would be thrown into the mix as a possible/likely at-large bid, increasing the number of teams below to 13 (and increasing the number of teams left out to seven):

 

Minnesota, Illinois

Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech

Seton Hall, Cincinnati

Rhode Island

UNLV

Florida, Mississippi State, Mississippi

 

Edit: Utah State loses to New Mexico State, adding another bubble team to the mix... That makes 13 teams, and only seven spots available.

Edited March 14, 2010 by Gopher

[budlitebrad]

NM State is in, so the bubble gets that much smaller. Wouldn't be shocked to see the Big 10 only get 5 bids. Tomorrow will be very interesting with Miss St and Minnesota on the bubble.

Edited March 14, 2010 by budlitebrad

[Gopher]

A closer look at the 13 teams that I believe are (or could be) on the bubble tomorrow... I have them ranked in order, according to how strong of a case I believe they can make for an at-large bid (prior to tomorrow's games). RPI rankings are as of 11:30 EST on Saturday morning, and could change Sunday morning, as a result of Saturday's games. I've also "tweaked" my definition of bad losses to include any home loss against teams above 50 (RPI), as well as any road/neutral loss against teams with an RPI of 100 or higher. I've broken the 13 teams below into three groups:

 

Updated RPI rankings, as of 3/14

 

Group A - Teams that I believe are currently in the field:

 

Wake Forest 19-10 (9-7)

RPI: 37

SOS: 27

Last 10: 5-5

Record against top 50: 6-4

Record against top 50 (out of conference): 3-1 (Beat Xavier, Richmond, Gonzaga; Lost to Purdue)

Wins vs. top 50: Xavier (18), Maryland (23), Richmond (25), Clemson (34), Georgia Tech (35), @Gonzaga (40) - 6 total (1 road/neutral)

Bad losses: North Carolina (93), William & Mary (58) - 2 total

HTH Record against other bubble teams: 1-2 (Split with Georgia Tech, lost to Virginia Tech)

 

When you look at the entire resume, Wake has the best of this entire group. Of the 13 teams, they won the most games against the top 50, were two games above .500 against the top 50, went 3-1 out of conference against the top 50, and their worst two losses were really not that bad... UNC is still very talented, and William & Mary was an "almost" tournament team that beat multiple teams that are in the tournament. If there is anything bad about Wake's resume, it's that they're only 5-5 in their last 10, and have actually lost 5 of their last 6 games. But, the chairman of the selection committee, in an interview Saturday morning, stated that the last 10 games is no longer an item on the "sheet" that they look at... it is only used as a "tipping point" if two teams are dead-even in all other criteria.

 

Georgia Tech 22-11 (7-9)

RPI: 33

SOS: 16

Last 10: 5-5

Record against top 50: 5-6

Record against top 50 (out of conference): 1-0 (Beat Siena)

Wins vs. top 50: Duke (2), (N)Maryland (23), Siena (32), Clemson (34), Wake Forest (37) - 5 total (1 road/neutral)

Bad losses: @Virginia (125), @Georgia (106), Virginia Tech (56) - 3 total

HTH Record against other bubble teams: 1-1 (Split with Wake Forest)

 

Another strong resume from the ACC... Georgia Tech has a very good strength of schedule, a number of solid wins, and their losses are not that bad. Only weaknesses are a 7-9 conference record, and a lack of road/neutral wins in top 50 (only 1).

 

UNLV 25-8 (11-5)

RPI: 46

SOS: 100

Last 10: 6-4

Record against top 50: 5-5

Record against top 50 (out of conference): 1-1 (Beat Louisville; Lost to Kansas State)

Wins vs. top 50: @New Mexico (9), BYU (22), (N)BYU (22), SDSU (24), Louisville (39) - 5 total (2 road/neutral)

Bad losses: @Utah (157), Utah (157), (N)USC (111) - 3 total

HTH Record against other bubble teams: 0-0

 

More good wins than bad losses, and a .500 record against the top 50... UNLV is in as the 4th MWC team.

 

Group B - Teams that could go either way:

 

Minnesota 21-12 (9-9)

RPI: 60

SOS: 54

Last 10: 7-3

Record against top 50: 5-6

Record against top 50 (out of conference): 1-1 (Beat Butler; Lost to Texas A&M)

Wins vs. top 50: (N)Purdue (10), (N)Butler (12), Wisconsin (27), Ohio State (27), (N)Michigan State (29) - 5 total (3 road/neutral)

Bad losses: @Northwestern (115), Michigan (131), @Michigan (131), @Indiana (221) - 4 total

HTH Record against other bubble teams: 1-0 (Beat Illinois)

I almost put Minny in Group A, but I think they could still go either way. I don't think they have to win tomorrow against OSU, to be in, but an ugly loss might be damaging enough to push them back out. Record against the top 50 is solid, including road/neutral wins. Most importantly, they beat Illinois head-to-head, in their only meeting, at Illinois, which gives them a distinct advantage over the Illini.

 

Virginia Tech 23-8 (10-6)

RPI: 59

SOS: 132

Last 10: 6-4

Record against top 50: 3-4

Record against top 50 (out of conference): 0-1 (Lost to Temple)

Wins vs. top 50: Clemson (34), @Georgia Tech (35), Wake Forest (37) - 3 total (1 road/neutral)

Bad losses: @Boston College (120) - 1 total

HTH Record against other bubble teams: 3-0 (Beat Seton Hall, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech)

Strength of schedule is really the only thing keeping them on the bubble. Record against the top 50 is OK... they just didn't play that many games, compared to the teams above. They did, however, beat all three of the teams that they played, from this list of 13. Virginia Tech is right on the edge, and very easily could be the team that gets pushed out, if in fact Mississippi State wins tomorrow.

 

Utah State 27-7 (14-2)

RPI: 31

SOS: 103

Last 10: 9-1

Record against top 50: 2-1

Record against top 50 (out of conference): 1-1 (Beat BYU; Lost to St. Mary's)

Wins vs. top 50: BYU (22), Wichita State (43) - 2 total (None road/neutral)

Bad losses: @Utah (157), @Long Beach State (108) - 2 total

HTH Record against other bubble teams: 0-0

 

The Aggies needed to win on Saturday night to be assured of a spot. Still, the committee has generally given at-large bids to teams with an RPI inside the top 30, so they have a good shot. My only problem with this team is that they only played 3 games against the top 50... Usually, for a mid-major conference to get an at-large, the team has to win more big games. I guess we will see, but I certainly would not be surprised if Utah State was one of the last couple of teams in, or the first couple out, on Sunday.

 

Illinois 19-14 (10-8)

RPI: 74

SOS: 39

Last 10: 5-5

Record against top 50: 5-9

Record against top 50 (out of conference): 2-2 (Beat Vanderbilt, Clemson; Lost to Gonzaga, Missouri)

Wins vs. top 50: Vanderbilt (20), @Wisconsin (21), (N)Wisconsin (21), Michigan State (29), @Clemson (34) - 5 total (3 road/neutral)

Bad losses: Minnesota (68), @Northwestern (115), @Georgia (106), (N)Bradley (105) - 4 total

HTH Record against other bubble teams: 0-1

Not only does Illinois need Kentucky to beat Mississippi State, they also need to convince the committee that either Virginia Tech or Utah State belongs below them, on the priority list. Not much they can do now, except wait and hope. What they do have going for them is that they played 14 games against teams in the top 50... but they only won 5. It also would have been nice if they had gotten to 20 wins.

 

Group C - Teams that are officially out:

Everybody listed below didn't win enough games vs. the top 50, compared to how many they played. Mississippi State is the only one on the list that can not only still play their way in, but also throw a wrench in somebody else's plans.

 

Seton Hall 19-12 (9-9)

RPI: 61

SOS: 32

Last 10: 7-3

Record against top 50: 4-9

Record against top 50 (out of conference): 1-1 (Beat Cornell; Lost to Temple)

Wins vs. top 50: Pittsburgh (16), Louisville (39), Notre Dame (48), @Cornell (49) - 4 total (1 road/neutral)

Bad losses: None

HTH Record against other bubble teams: 1-1 (Beat Cincinnati, lost to Virginia Tech)

 

Mississippi State 23-10 (9-7)

RPI: 54

SOS: 106

Last 10: 7-3

Record against top 50: 2-4

Record against top 50 (out of conference): 1-1 (Beat Old Dominion; Lost to Richmond)

Wins vs. top 50: (N)Vanderbilt (20), (N)Old Dominion (28) - 2 total (2 road/neutral)

Bad losses: @Arkansas (157), @Auburn (153), Rider (140), @Western Kentucky (133) - 4 total

HTH Record against other bubble teams: 3-1 (Split with Florida, swept Mississippi)

 

Florida 21-12 (9-7)

RPI: 56

SOS: 33

Last 10: 4-6

Record against top 50: 3-8

Record against top 50 (out of conference): 2-3 (Beat Michigan State, Florida State; Lost to Richmond, Xavier, Syracuse)

Wins vs. top 50: Tennessee (11), (N)Michigan State (29), Florida State (41) - 3 total (1 road/neutral)

Bad losses: South Alabama (212), @Georgia (106) - 2 total

HTH Record against other bubble teams: 2-1 (Split with Mississippi State, beat Mississippi)

 

Cincinnati 18-15 (7-11)

RPI: 64

SOS: 8

Last 10: 4-6

Record against top 50: 4-12

Record against top 50 (out of conference): 2-3 (Beat Maryland, Vanderbilt; Lost to Xavier, Gonzaga, UAB)

Wins vs. top 50: (N)Vanderbilt (20), (N)Maryland (23), (N)Louisville (39), Notre Dame (48) - 4 total (3 road/neutral)

Bad losses: None

HTH Record against other bubble teams: 0-1 (Lost to Seton Hall)

 

Mississippi 21-10 (9-7)

RPI: 62

SOS: 64

Last 10: 5-5

Record against top 50: 2-6

Record against top 50 (out of conference): 2-2 (Beat UTEP, Kansas State; Lost to West Virginia, Villanova)

Wins vs. top 50: (N)Kansas State (6), (N)UTEP (33) - 2 total (2 road/neutral)

Bad losses: Arkansas (157), Mississippi State (63), Florida (54) - 3 total

HTH Record against other bubble teams: 0-3 (Swept by Mississippi State, lost to Florida)

 

Rhode Island 23-10 (9-7)

RPI: 40

SOS: 88

Last 10: 4-6

Record against top 50: 1-5

Record against top 50 (out of conference): 1-0 (Beat Oklahoma State)

Wins vs. top 50: (N)Oklahoma State (31) - 1 total (1 road/neutral)

Bad losses: @UMass (174), @St. Bonaventure (155) - 2 total

HTH Record against other bubble teams: 0-0

Edited March 14, 2010 by Gopher

[wildcat2334]

great game last night for the Pac 10 title as Washington gets it done in back and forth battle. Amazing to me they struggled like they did all year- very talented and deep team- good to see them peaking at the right time. Cal is in as well, the Pac gets 2 in it looks like- woohoooo

 

Utah St losing throws a big wrench into somebodies plans - I think Gopher Lunardi is right on the mark and I see the last few teams IN as:

 

Minny, VTech and Utah State

[Gopher]

great game last night for the Pac 10 title as Washington gets it done in back and forth battle. Amazing to me they struggled like they did all year- very talented and deep team- good to see them peaking at the right time. Cal is in as well, the Pac gets 2 in it looks like- woohoooo

 

Utah St losing throws a big wrench into somebodies plans - I think Gopher Lunardi is right on the mark and I see the last few teams IN as:

 

Minny, VTech and Utah State

I agree... Pac-10 gets two. Even if Cal had won yesterday, I think they still would have deserved two bids. Not sure if the committee would agree, though.

 

I think Lunardi is right on, as well, although I would not be surprised to see Virginia Tech or Utah State get left out, in favor of Illinois... or maybe even Florida or Seton Hall. The big question is what is the most important criteria on "the sheet" that the committee chairman referred to, when he talked about what they look at in determining who is in, and who is out.

 

Illinois played 14 games against the top 50. They only won five, but that's nearly as many as Virginia Tech played total against the top 50 (seven), and far MORE than Utah State played against the top 50 (three). So, is it more important to play stiffer competition throughout the season, or just play a couple of tough games, as long as you win more than you lose?

 

Another key indicator of whether or not a team belongs in the field, in my opinion, is how did a team fare against top non-conference opponents. Illinois beat Vanderbilt and Clemson (at Clemson), while losing to Gonzaga and Missouri. Virginia Tech only played one non-conference game against the top 50 (Temple), which they lost. They did, however, beat Seton Hall (RPI of 61). Utah State beat BYU, but lost to St. Mary's. So, again, does it impress more to have played more tough non-conference games in general, or is it more important that you win more than you lose? Either way, Illinois is better than both Virginia Tech and Utah State in this category.

 

It's too close to call... of course, if Mississippi State wins today, we'll most likely be looking at two of the above teams getting left out, instead of just one. I lean towards Illinois being in for the reasons stated above, as well as the following... Going into the conference tournament week, Illinois was considered to be probably in, but needing to beat Wisconsin to solidify their chances. They did that... beating Wisconsin handily, and then pushing Ohio State to two overtimes, a game which Illinois actually dominated for about the first 30-35 minutes. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech came out and lost to last-place Miami by 20 points, if I remember correctly. Now, the committee is no longer supposed to consider the way a team finished (or, specifically, their last 10 games), but if they do use this as a "tipping point", as the chairman indicated they would, I don't see how losing to a last-place team by 20 is anywhere close to what Illinois did in the Big Ten tournament. Meanwhile, Utah State failed to close the deal. They're in a far weaker conference, obviously, and in my opinion, are the definition of a team that needed to win their tournament to secure a bid. They don't have the impressive wins that a team like Old Dominion has, their conference is not as strong as a team like Northern Iowa... Basically, all of the factors involved simply don't point towards Utah State being a "lock" as an at-large team. I'm not saying they won't be... I'm just not sure they will be, either.

 

If I'm on the committee, it all comes down to this... Do one of two things to get into the tournament. Either win your conference, which essentially takes you out of the bubble conversation, or do enough during the ENTIRE season to prove that you belong in the tournament. By doing enough, I simply mean this... play competition that is going to be in the tournament, and beat enough of those opponents to prove that you belong, in conference as well as out of conference. Illinois did that. Virginia Tech proved they can beat the likes of Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, and Clemson in the ACC. Whether or not they can do it out of conference, we'll never know, because they played NOBODY out of their conference of any significance. Utah State is in a tough spot... they dominated their conference all year, right up until the point where it really matters. At that point, they just didn't get the job done. As far as playing tournament-level competition during the season, they simply didn't do it. They lost two of three games against New Mexico State, who is obviously in by winning the WAC. Other than that, as previously mentioned, they beat one quality non-conference opponent in BYU, and lost to another (St. Mary's). Utah State may be good enough to make the field, but I think they could have done a little bit more, in terms of non-conference quality wins/competition, to make themselves a lock.

 

Ultimately, of these three teams, I have Virginia Tech out... I just think their 20-point loss to Miami is a glaring enough way to end the season, that the other two teams will get the nod before they do. If Mississippi State wins today, I think it should push Utah State off the bubble, with Illinois then becoming the "last team in." Of course, this is just what I think... the committee may see things differently. ESPN has Illinois out, and the other two in. CBS has Florida and Utah State in, and VTech and Illinois out. We'll find out what the "real" answer is in about 4-5 hours. Can't wait....

 

Edit: And before anybody thinks that I'm leaning towards Illinois because they're a Big Ten team, know this... I HATE Illinois, probably more than any other Big Ten team, including Wisconsin. This has nothing to do with the Big Ten, and I could honestly not care less whether the Big Ten gets five teams or six. That is irrelevant. I just think Illinois has the better resume, and has proven throughout the season that they can compete with (and beat) some of the top teams in the country. In my opinion, Virginia Tech and Utah State have not proven that, at least not to the extent that Illinois has. I think the committee should take this into consideration... whether they will or not, or whether they will look at other factors, has yet to be seen.

Edited March 14, 2010 by Gopher