NCAA Tournament

[Gopher]

I would like to add that there is no right or wrong answer to this, obviously. I don't feel strongly enough about Illinois to say that they are definitely deserving, and that Virginia Tech is not. If I had to make a choice, though, I would SLIGHTLY lean towards the Illini. Like I said, if it were up to me, teams who have proven they can compete with the top 50 would get my vote. Illinois hasn't been spectacular against the top 50, but they've been better than Virginia Tech, and Utah State for that matter.

 

I've seen too many tournament games where mid-major gets into the dance based on what they did in their conference, only to get dismantled by a more tested team. Granted, there have been plenty of worthy mid-major teams who made an impact in the tournament. But, for the most part, those are teams who proved themselves during the regular season, out of conference, as well. Utah State did so just once this year, by beating BYU. Illinois has proven themselves against the top 50, as well as out of conference, on several occasions.

 

Don't get me wrong... I would have loved to have seen Utah State win their conference tournament, and get to the dance. I think it would have been exciting to see them possibly play a team from a major conference. But, they didnt do that (win their tournament)... NMSU did. So, NMSU gets that privilege (as an automatic bid), not Utah State.

 

Of course, now that I've said my piece, one of two things will happen... Illinois will get in and get blown out, or Utah State will make the Elite Eight. Really, this is too close to call... The irony in all of this is that we are talking about a handful of teams that would be in the NIT last year. The field is definitely weaker this year, but I think that also makes things more exciting, in a sense. Any of the 1 or 2-seeds could make the Final Four, realistically. On the other hand, I wouldn't be THAT surprised if none of them did, either. Should be a fun tournament to watch... But, first, let's hope the Gophers can pull off their third big upset in a row.

[Gopher]

I need to correct myself on one thing... Virginia Tech only lost to Miami in the ACC tournament by 5 (not 20+). Wake was the team that was blown out by Miami in the first round, not Virginia Tech. I still maintain my stance on Illinois vs. Virginia Tech, however.

[Gopher]

My final projected field of 65 (conference winners in bold):

 

1-seeds: Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky, Duke

 

2-seeds: West Virginia, Ohio State, Kansas State, Georgetown

 

3-seeds: Temple, Villanova, New Mexico, Baylor

 

4-seeds: Michigan State, Pittsburgh, Vanderbilt, Purdue

 

5-seeds: Wisconsin, Butler, Maryland, Tennessee

 

6-seeds: BYU, Xavier, Texas A&M, Richmond

 

7-seeds: Marquette, Gonzaga, Texas, Florida State

 

8-seeds: Georgia Tech, Oklahoma State, San Diego State, Clemson

 

9-seeds: UNLV, Northern Iowa, St. Mary's, Missouri

 

10-seeds: Notre Dame, Wake Forest, Louisville, Cornell

 

11-seeds: Old Dominion, Siena, California, Minnesota

 

12-seeds: Washington, UTEP, Illinois, Utah State,

 

13-seeds: Houston, Oakland, New Mexico State, Ohio

 

14-seeds: Murray State, Montana, Wofford, Sam Houston

 

15-seeds: Vermont, North Texas, Santa Barbara, Morgan State

 

16-seeds (+1): Winthrop, East Tennessee State, Robert Morris, Lehigh, AR-Pine Bluff

 

Last 5 in: California, Minnesota, UTEP, Illinois, Utah State

First 4 out: Virginia Tech, Mississippi State, Seton Hall, Florida

Next 4 out: Rhode Island, Mississippi, Cincinnati, Memphis

Edited March 14, 2010 by Gopher

[Gopher]

Gophers have absolutely no answer for Turner.

[Bonedaddies]

Here are mine:

 

1-seeds: Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky, Duke

 

2-seeds: West Virginia, Ohio State, Kansas State, Georgetown

 

3-seeds: Temple, Villanova, PURDUE, Baylor

 

4-seeds: Michigan State, Pittsburgh, NEW MEXICO, WISC

 

5-seeds: TAM, Butler, Maryland, XAVIER

 

6-seeds: BYU, TENN, GONZAGA, Richmond

 

7-seeds: ST. MARYS, VANDY, Texas, OSU

 

8-seeds: ND, MARQ, UNI, CAL

 

9-seeds: UNLV, MIZZOU, WAKE, SD ST

 

10-seeds: VA TECH, FSU, GT, CLEMSON

 

11-seeds: MINN, Siena, LOUISVILLE, Washington

 

12-seeds: OLD DOM, Illinois, Utah State, New Mexico State

 

13-seeds: MONTANA, CORNELL, WOFFORD, OAKLAND

 

14-seeds: Murray State, OHIO, HOUSTON, Sam Houston

 

15-seeds: Vermont, North Texas, Santa Barbara, Morgan State

 

16-seeds (+1): Winthrop, East Tennessee State, Robert Morris, Lehigh, AR-Pine Bluff

 

Vandy as a 7 is too low, but i was tired of jacking with it on the CBS Selection Sunday challenge to make all of the conferences and matchups past the "pick evaluator".

I gave Purdue more credit for the body of work during the season vs. their last game.

[Gopher]

Yeah, everything I've seen has Vandy much lower than where I've got them. I guess my thing is, if Tennessee is a 5-seed, Vanderbilt should be that high or higher, since they finished higher in conference and swept the Vols.

[Gopher]

Playing in the last game of the season, essentially, the last thing Minnesota needs is a 20+ point loss. Very frustrating to watch... As much as I love watching/cheering for the Gophers, this has to be the most frustrating squad I can ever remember. Too many turnovers, and just bad decisions in general... it's been that way all season long. They've got the talent to hang with OSU or anybody else in the conference (as they've shown the last two days, as well as beating OSU earlier this year), and WAY more depth than OSU, but they have basically played right into the Buckeyes' hands here today, giving up too many open shots to their best shooters.

 

By the way, I normally enjoy Clark Kellogg's commentary, but his bias towards the Buckeyes in this tournament has been way overboard. Not only bias, but just incorrect statements in general. Yesterday, he commented that Minnesota had beaten Ohio State earlier this year, without Evan Turner. The funny thing, Clark, is that I remember that game, and Turner PLAYED in it. Granted, it was one of his first couple of games back from injury, but he did play the entire game. Kellogg is quickly becoming Billy Packer-like with some of his BS.

 

Can the Buckeyes please just miss a three... Eight minutes and counting without missing a shot.

 

Edit: I've dropped Minnesota to an 11-seed... I still think they're in, but like I said, this is the worst time of the year to get blown out. Now, I'm going to have to sweat out the next hour or so.

Edited March 14, 2010 by Gopher

[Gopher]

Great game by the Buckeyes... definitely the best team in the Big Ten. In fact, they make a pretty strong argument for a #1 seed. I think Duke, West Virginia, and OSU all do.

 

Somebody is going to have to get the Buckeyes in foul trouble, or catch them on a very bad shooting night, to knock them out. Their starting five may be the best in the country, although I'm sure Kansas, Kentucky, and Syracuse would have something to say about that.

[budlitebrad]

Lighty was on fire in the second half.

 

Big Ten champs!

[muck]

13-seeds: Houston, Oakland, Murray State, Ohio

 

14-seeds: Murray State, Montana, Wofford, Sam Houston

 

Two points of order:

 

1) You have Murray State in there twice.

2) You do not have Missouri in there at all.

[Gopher]

Two points of order:

 

1) You have Murray State in there twice.

2) You do not have Missouri in there at all.

Fixed. In all of my copying/pasting from my original projections a week ago, I missed that. I plugged Missouri in, moved a couple of teams down, and deleted the second Murray State.

 

Good catch.

[Gopher]

Not many surprises in the Midwest... Not sure how UNLV is an 8-seed, while SDSU is an 11, considering they had nearly identical resumes, and SDSU beat UNLV (in Las Vegas) for the Mountain West Final.

[Gopher]

West:

 

Wow... Gonzaga drops all the way to an 8-seed. Brutal.

 

Butler- UTEP should be a great matchup in the first round.

 

Looks like my Vandy call (as a #4) was a good one.

 

First big surprise of the day... Florida is in. That means somebody (likely Illinois or Utah State) is out.

 

Minnesota goes East to play in the West... first-round matchup with Xavier, in Milwaukee.

[Gopher]

East:

 

Temple should have been higher than a 5-seed... I had them at a 3, 4 at worst. To make it worse for them, Cornell matches up against them in the first round as a 12. Many had Cornell as high as 10-11. Tough first-round matchup for a top-15 team in the country, that dominated the A-10 during the regular-season, as well as their tournament.

[Gopher]

South:

 

Utah State is in... Not good for Illinois or Virginia Tech.

 

Notre Dame... A 6-seed?

 

Cal was a lock, like I said all along.

[Gopher]

Can't really argue with any of it too much... I would have sent Illinois over either Florida or Utah State, but it was too close to call, really. I am a bit surprised that Florida is a 10, so they weren't even really on the bubble.

 

Teams that got screwed:

Temple - Should have been a 4, at worst.

San Diego State - No way their three lines worse than UNLV, who they just beat in Vegas for the conference title.

Gonzaga - (not as much as the other two, though)

 

Teams that were seeded too high, IMO:

Notre Dame - Played their way in over the past two weeks, but I thought they'd be in the 8-10 range.

Florida - Thought they were on the bubble.

Marquette - I think they're a dangerous team, just surprised that they're a 6-seed.

[bushwacked]

Wow... Gonzaga drops all the way to an 8-seed. Brutal.

 

 

Yea, so much for taking the season on a whole, that's a pretty good butt raping for losing the last game of a conference tourney.

 

Good work on here Gopher!

[gilthorp]

Once I saw Florida in, I knew it was not looking good for my Illini.

 

Mississippi State must be hurting big time tonight.

[Gopher]

Yea, so much for taking the season on a whole, that's a pretty good butt raping for losing the last game of a conference tourney.

 

Mississippi State must be hurting big time tonight.

It's these types of inconsistencies from the committee that bother me most about some of the selections/seedings. Gonzaga gets judged big-time on the way they played in their final game. Probably dropped from a 5 or 6-seed to an 8, all as the result of their bad loss to St. Mary's. Meanwhile, Mississippi State plays the #2 team in the country tough, and loses in overtime. According to the Gonzaga line of thinking, that should get them in, right? Nope, because MSU didn't do enough throughout the rest of the season to justify the bid. Don't get me wrong... that's the way it should be. That's also probably why Illinois didn't make it... too many spots during their season where they struggled. The committee didn't reward them for pushing Ohio State to the limit yesterday, which is probably the correct thing to do.

 

But, you can't tell me that Illinois and MSU's games this weekend didn't do enough to get them in, and then turn around and drop Gonzaga TEN SPOTS in the field, as a result of one loss. Doesn't make sense.

 

What is really unfortunate, for teams like Gonzaga and Temple, is that they don't have much of an opportunity to prove the committee wrong. Gonzaga plays the 8-9 game, then gets to play a #1 seed. So, more than likely, they're capped out at winning one game. Not saying it's impossible for an 8/9 to beat a 1 (as it happens pretty regularly), but it's unlikely that Gonzaga is the one to do it. The statistics show that they have less than a 10% chance at making the Sweet 16. So, the committee makes a mistake, but their mistake is going to be wrongly justified through the results, in a sense.

 

Same for Temple... They're the 5, which means they would meet the #1 seed a round earlier than they SHOULD, if they were the 3 seed. I realize I'm thinking a couple of rounds ahead here, and it probably won't pan out like that in every region (4 vs 5, 3 vs 6, etc.), but not only did those two teams get bad breaks, they are going to have a hard time proving the committee wrong, if that makes sense.

 

Meanwhile, ironically, San Diego State MIGHT be better off as an 11-seed than they would an 8 or 9 (where I thought they should be)... Better potential matchup in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, if things play out as they should (on paper, anyway).

 

But, like Bob Knight always says, once the games start, those numbers (seeds) next to your name mean absolutely nothing. Everybody has the same chance to win each game. Should be an exciting tournament... no clear-cut favorite, and there are certainly a long list of teams that could potentially win 2-3 games, or maybe even make the Final Four.

[gilthorp]

I believe this is as wide open as ever this year. IMO, only one of the #1 seeds is rock solid to make it through.

[Gopher]

I believe this is as wide open as ever this year. IMO, only one of the #1 seeds is rock solid to make it through.

Agreed. Of all the network analysts, I really enjoy what Bob Knight has to say the most. He makes some really interesting points, including the fact that the committee as a whole has very little basketball IQ. They're a bunch of people crunching numbers, comparing resumes, etc. But, in terms of knowing the game or being able to identify a good team or good defense through an "eye test," they're no more qualified to do so than you or I. In fact, I'm guessing they're less qualified, due to the fact that they don't have to have any sort of basketball background to be on the committee.

[bushwacked]

It's these types of inconsistencies from the committee that bother me most about some of the selections/seedings. Gonzaga gets judged big-time on the way they played in their final game.

 

As a homer, I'm more pissed now than during the selection. Gonzaga hung on yesterday but they dominated more than the final score indicated. Now onto a #1 seed for a 2nd round matchup as a reward for playing a tough outta conference schedule and winning 2 outta 3 games against a team that just advanced to the Sweet 16. I was happy to see St. Mary's win, but I'd hope the Selection Committee would admit behind closed doors how they screwed the pooch.

 

Of course, the beauty of it is that Gonzaga just has to win tomorrow and it's all moot.

[theprofessor]

How bout' the BIG LEAST?

 

2 1/2 days in and the Big East has lost 5 teams? Louisville, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Marquette and Villanova. Looks like all the hype wasn't deserved while the Pac-10 only got in 2 and their both in. Go Dawgs!!

Edited March 20, 2010 by theprofessor

[Gopher]

How bout' the BIG LEAST?

 

2 1/2 days in and the Big East has lost 5 teams? Louisville, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Marquette and Villanova. Looks like all the hype wasn't deserved while the Pac-10 only got in 2 and their both in. Go Dawgs!!

Happens nearly every year, though. Teams/conferences that play the best during the regular season don't necessarily dominate the NCAA tournament. As much as I defended the Pac-10, saying that Cal was a lock and that the conference should get two bids, the teams in the Pac-10 weren't impressive enough, out of conference, to warrant any MORE than two bids. Meanwhile, I don't think there was a single Big East team that made it, that anyone could argue should NOT have made the tournament. Louisville was the conference's last team in, and as much as they stunk it up early last night, the Cardinals still made a game of it, against the Pac-10's best (regular-season best, anyway).

 

It all has to do with who's hot at the right time... Teams that win in November/December, then fizzle down the stretch, are usually early outs. Nova is a prime example... I could see that coming from a mile away, and bet on St. Mary's to win straight up today. Meanwhile, teams like Washington took three months to start to gel (and win games), but now they're as dangerous as any other team still remaining. I am putting some money down on them, as well, today... And it looks like a lot of others are as well, as they are now 1.5 to 2 point favorites. Every year, I find myself wishing that I could fill out my bracket a little bit differently, once I get a chance to see which teams come to play, and which ones don't.

 

I agree, though... the West coast teams are representing well, for the most part... None of them have had a bad showing, even the teams that lost (UNLV, SDSU). I think they have a very good chance of getting three, maybe even four, teams to the Sweet 16, between Washington, Cal, BYU, Gonzaga, and obviously St. Mary's.

 

Some very intriguing match-ups coming up, even in the 1 vs. 8/9 games... I will not be surprised at all if at least one of the #1 seeds loses over the next 36 hours. I'm not going to call any one game in particular, between the four... just wouldn't surprise me if somebody like Cal or Wake Forest pulls off the upset. Not to mention, Gonzaga and NIU will makes things "uncomfortable" for 'Cuse and Kansas, to say the least. I do think a #1 will lose in the third round, if none of them do sooner. The most likely, in my opinion, would be Texas A&M to beat Duke. Of course, the Blue Devils need to get by Cal first. I think the Aggies will be too much for Purdue, and are more talented, top to bottom, than Duke as well.

[Gopher]

Well, I guess I called it, sort of... but definitely NOT the #1 that I thought might fall this weekend. Brutal choke-job by the Jayhawks. Hats off to Northern Iowa... they had nothing to lose, and simply outplayed Kansas for 40 minutes today.