What the Hell? Good news on the economy?

[cre8tiff]

Jobless claims drop to two-month low

The number of people requesting unemployment benefits declined for the third straight week as companies resist making even deeper cuts to their work forces.

 

Yeah, it's on msnbc, but it's an AP article, Fauxheads.

 

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U.S. trade deficit narrowed sharply in July

The U.S. trade deficit narrowed sharply in July as exports rose to the highest level in nearly two years, new data show.

 

Anothe AP article...

 

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What the hell? I thought we were on our way to playing "Road Warrior" for real by next spring?

[Perchoutofwater]

We reduced our workforce by 10% yesterday. We informed the employees that unless we pick up a significant amount of work between now an the first of the year, everyone will probably be getting a pay cut. What we didn't come right out and tell them, is that unless the a bunch of school bonds pass in November, we will probably have to reduce our payroll by another 10-15% prior to the first of the year. Still doing all of that we are looking at high 6 figure possibly low 7 figure losses next year. Yep, the economy is great. All the manufactured uncertainty caused by new regulations, regulations currently being considered, new benefit requirements, and looming tax increases is really putting the hurt on me and my industry. Yesterday was not a fun day for me. I knew back an March that this was going to be a very real possibility, but was hoping we could avoid it. I'm hopeful that I can avoid repeating it in a few months, but I'm really not very optimistic. The only good news is we are doing a lot better than most of our competitors and when it does turn around we should be in a better position financially and have a higher bonding capacity that most of our competitors. There is a ton of money out there to be spent, there is more money sitting on the sidelines than I can ever recall, and at some point it has to bust loose. Only problem is it probably won't until Washington stops making wholesale changes that negatively impact business and investment.

Edited September 9, 2010 by Perchoutofwater

[dmarc117]

Yeah, it's on msnbc, but it's an AP article, Fauxheads.

 

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Anothe AP article...

 

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What the hell? I thought we were on our way to playing "Road Warrior" for real by next spring?

 

 

if you truly think we are out of the woods, lets talk

[Ursa Majoris]

if you truly think we are out of the woods, lets talk

You wouldn't think we were doing well if it began raining gold bars.

[dmarc117]

You wouldn't think we were doing well if it began raining gold bars.

 

 

lol.....but it isnt. and im a realist, not an optimist. i see things as they really are, not how i hope they are or will be. we are in for dark days. end of the world, no, but definitely hard times ahead.

 

its like this......our economy was like baseball on steroids. you take away the steroids(credit, easy money) and we arent hittin homeruns anymore. still playing sure, but more no hitters, more perfect games.

Edited September 9, 2010 by dmarc117

[The Irish Doggy]

There's been plenty of mixed news on the economy. Around here, you usually only hear about the downside and the double dip. From what I've seen, I continue to think there is more reason for guarded optimism than rampant pessimism.

[cre8tiff]

if you truly think we are out of the woods, lets talk

 

Did I say we are out of the woods? I'm just sick and tired of everything posted that is related to the economy being the seventh sign of the apocalypse. Sure there are still bad things happening (Perch's layoffs, Defense sector layoffs, etc.), but how about we also give credit for positive signs?

 

To use the baseball example, how about we report that despite steroids being taken away, the game is still going, and perfect games are just as valid for fans as home run derbys.

[Duchess Jack]

There's been plenty of mixed news on the economy. Around here, you usually only hear about the downside and the double dip. From what I've seen, I continue to think there is more reason for guarded optimism than rampant pessimism.

if more people felt like you - companies wouldn't be hoarding so much money and blaming everyone else for why the economy is so sluggish.

[dmarc117]

Did I say we are out of the woods? I'm just sick and tired of everything posted that is related to the economy being the seventh sign of the apocalypse. Sure there are still bad things happening (Perch's layoffs, Defense sector layoffs, etc.), but how about we also give credit for positive signs?

 

To use the baseball example, how about we report that despite steroids being taken away, the game is still going, and perfect games are just as valid for fans as home run derbys.

 

 

i guess thats the difference between us. i see no positive signs yet. sure there will be blips here and there. but we are in no way in good health as an economy. and the more people that see that, maybe we will get out of it faster.

[Duchess Jack]

i guess thats the difference between us. i see no positive signs yet. sure there will be blips here and there. but we are in no way in good health as an economy. and the more people that see that, maybe we will get out of it faster.

or - the more that people focus on the bad - the less they will likely be to spend.

[dmarc117]

or - the more that people focus on the bad - the less they will likely be to spend.

 

 

and people need to start saving more. thats what got us into this mess, spend spend spend with no cosequences. there needs to be a good balance. we spent with no thought of paying off that debt. no rainy day funds. thats bad planning imo. and i think that cash will be king in the coming years, so yes i am saving.

Edited September 9, 2010 by dmarc117

[dmarc117]

and here is why i believe nothing good...........

 

"For the latest reporting week, nine states didn’t file claims data to the Labor Department in Washington because of the Labor Day holiday earlier this week, a department official told reporters. California and Virginia estimated their figures and the U.S. government estimated the other seven."

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-09/j...-last-week.html

[Ursa Majoris]

and people need to start saving more. thats what got us into this mess, spend spend spend with no cosequences. there needs to be a good balance. we spent with no thought of paying off that debt. no rainy day funds. thats bad planning imo. and i think that cash will be king in the coming years, so yes i am saving.

The savings rate turned positive a while back and continues to grow. You are right that this needs to happen. The previous so-called prosperity was built on the fantasy of wealth accumulated through house equity so we never were anywhere close to as rich as some thought.

 

All that said, there is absolutely no excuse for the volatility displayed on a daily basis by the exchanges. They are completely ignoring fundamentals in favor of reacting to any ephemeral piece of so-called "news". It is this that is the bigger problem for savings, not overall economic performance. Until these idiots get a grip of themselves, people will be put off investing as a savings vehicle.

[dmarc117]

The savings rate turned positive a while back and continues to grow. You are right that this needs to happen. The previous so-called prosperity was built on the fantasy of wealth accumulated through house equity so we never were anywhere close to as rich as some thought.

 

All that said, there is absolutely no excuse for the volatility displayed on a daily basis by the exchanges. They are completely ignoring fundamentals in favor of reacting to any ephemeral piece of so-called "news". It is this that is the bigger problem for savings, not overall economic performance. Until these idiots get a grip of themselves, people will be put off investing as a savings vehicle.

 

 

the stk market is no longer a good barometer for the economy. no volume and hf traders make for very volatile markets. people are afraid to invest in the ponzi scheme. the sec needs to clean things up and make for a more transparent stk market. plus, people are in capital preservation mode. they arent looking for returns on their cash, just making sure the cash they have doesnt disappear. so they could care less if stock xyz nets them 8%.

[dmarc117]

This is getting really ridiculous. In the week ended September 1, domestic equity mutual funds saw a near record $9.5 billion in outflows: the biggest one week outflow in 2010 since the $13.4 billion redeemed in the Flash Crash week. The trend developing is simple: retail investors withdraw increasingly greater numbers in weeks in which the market is down even a little, and withdraw just a little in weeks in which the low-volume melt up presents them with an opportunity to get out at a better price level. Of course, the common thread is that as we have said for 18 consecutive weeks, retail just wants out. And now that, courtesy of Mary Schapiro, retail has finally put two and two together, and knows that even the regulators are concerned about redemptions, which are perceived by the SEC as being a function of distrust in market structure, we now fully expect more and more redemptions. Year to Date the total pulled out is a whopping $64 billion, incidentally with both inflows and the market having peaked at the same time in April. On thr other hand, if the market were tracking mutual fund redemptions (whose net liquidity is now down to just 3.5% of assets and getting worse by the day), the S&P would be in the 900 range. Once the destructive impact of the Fed's daily meddling in the stock market is eliminated, it will get there. The longer stocks are artificially held up at current artificial levels, the greater the crash when reality and anti-gravity finally meet.

[tbimm]

the stk market is no longer a good barometer for the economy. no volume and hf traders make for very volatile markets. people are afraid to invest in the ponzi scheme. the sec needs to clean things up and make for a more transparent stk market. plus, people are in capital preservation mode. they arent looking for returns on their cash, just making sure the cash they have doesnt disappear. so they could care less if stock xyz nets them 8%.

I rarely agree with your opinion but you have made valid points in this thread. Many of the same things that I say on a regular basis. However I do hold the guarded optimism. The derailment of our economy started a long time ago. The mistakes made along the way will not be fixed overnight!

[dmarc117]

I rarely agree with your opinion but you have made valid points in this thread. Many of the same things that I say on a regular basis. However I do hold the guarded optimism. The derailment of our economy started a long time ago. The mistakes made along the way will not be fixed overnight!

 

 

i know my doom and gloom can go overboard a bit. but its something that i never want to see. people need to know how bad things are and how bad they can get. the govt is the last place that i want to get my info from these days. they are in the business of keeping the masses calm. i get that. what are the chances that society fails imo, 5%. what are chances that our standard of living goes down a bit, 100%. we need to adapt and get prepared for the worse so when/if it doesnt happen, we are that much better off.

[Caveman_Nick]

We reduced our workforce by 10% yesterday. We informed the employees that unless we pick up a significant amount of work between now an the first of the year, everyone will probably be getting a pay cut. What we didn't come right out and tell them, is that unless the a bunch of school bonds pass in November, we will probably have to reduce our payroll by another 10-15% prior to the first of the year. Still doing all of that we are looking at high 6 figure possibly low 7 figure losses next year. Yep, the economy is great. All the manufactured uncertainty caused by new regulations, regulations currently being considered, new benefit requirements, and looming tax increases is really putting the hurt on me and my industry. Yesterday was not a fun day for me. I knew back an March that this was going to be a very real possibility, but was hoping we could avoid it. I'm hopeful that I can avoid repeating it in a few months, but I'm really not very optimistic. The only good news is we are doing a lot better than most of our competitors and when it does turn around we should be in a better position financially and have a higher bonding capacity that most of our competitors. There is a ton of money out there to be spent, there is more money sitting on the sidelines than I can ever recall, and at some point it has to bust loose. Only problem is it probably won't until Washington stops making wholesale changes that negatively impact business and investment.

 

 

Dude....is was on the AP! It's got to be true....

[Ramhock]

We reduced our workforce by 10% yesterday. We informed the employees that unless we pick up a significant amount of work between now an the first of the year, everyone will probably be getting a pay cut. What we didn't come right out and tell them, is that unless the a bunch of school bonds pass in November, we will probably have to reduce our payroll by another 10-15% prior to the first of the year. Still doing all of that we are looking at high 6 figure possibly low 7 figure losses next year. Yep, the economy is great. All the manufactured uncertainty caused by new regulations, regulations currently being considered, new benefit requirements, and looming tax increases is really putting the hurt on me and my industry. Yesterday was not a fun day for me. I knew back an March that this was going to be a very real possibility, but was hoping we could avoid it. I'm hopeful that I can avoid repeating it in a few months, but I'm really not very optimistic. The only good news is we are doing a lot better than most of our competitors and when it does turn around we should be in a better position financially and have a higher bonding capacity that most of our competitors. There is a ton of money out there to be spent, there is more money sitting on the sidelines than I can ever recall, and at some point it has to bust loose. Only problem is it probably won't until Washington stops making wholesale changes that negatively impact business and investment.

 

LOL

[Perchoutofwater]

Talked to an architect with a big firm we do a lot of work with yesterday. He informed me that they have laid off 35 people in the last month. My industry sucks right now.

[Duchess Jack]

 

Dude....is was on the AP! It's got to be true....

 

so, where do you list the 'AP' on your credibility list? what new outlets might he list that won't be questioned just for who they are?

[Caveman_Nick]

so, where do you list the 'AP' on your credibility list? what new outlets might he list that won't be questioned just for who they are?

 

 

Apparently the reference isn't as obvious as I though.

[Duchess Jack]

 

Apparently the reference isn't as obvious as I though.

yeah... I completely missed it.

[westvirginia]

yeah... I completely missed it.

 

I'm still missing it I guess. Maybe that was the whooshing sound I heard as it buzzed right over my head?

[SEC=UGA]

Talked to an architect with a big firm we do a lot of work with yesterday. He informed me that they have laid off 35 people in the last month. My industry sucks right now.

 

Ha, Ha.... Wait, the same thing is happening to me, except we have lost 7 figures in the last 12 months (I absolutely realize some of it is our fault and some the fault of competition drastically reducing markups and merely shuffling money around.)

 

A smaller architect we work with (3 man shop) has not issued payroll since March, they are hanging on. We will probably have to layoff a couple to 3 people in the next two or so months if even one of the 6 jobs we look good on right now doesn't come through.

 

The money isn't out there right now. It is a double edged sword, those with money, people who invest in these projects, aren't turning loose of cash and in many cases when they do turn loose the banks aren't willing to make the loan on the projects. I have about 11 contracts that are all pending funding, some have been waiting for over 16 months.