Economic Panel

[bushwacked]

 

The longest recession the country has endured since World War II ended in June 2009, a group that dates the beginning and end of recessions declared Monday.

 

In President George W. Bush's eight years in office, the United States fell into two recessions. The first started in March 2001 and ended that November. The second one started in December 2007.

[SEC=UGA]

 

WOOT!!! We're outta the woods... Time to increase spending and RAISE TAXES!!!! Yeeeee-Haaaw!!! (or should I just throw up a hand sign so that the community organizer in charge better understands what I was emoting above?)

[evil_gop_liars]

 

:AZZ: Read this :AZZ

[Azazello1313]

I think everyone's known that for quite a while. the problem is that the "recovery" is complete garbage. the economy should be recovering -- coming out of a recession the economy usually grows above trend -- but it is stagnant. why do we still have 10% unemployment 15 months after the recession "ended"?

[TimC]

At least the weatherman has been right the past few days.

[bushwacked]

:AZZ: Read this :AZZ

 

 

WOOT!!! We're outta the woods... Time to increase spending and RAISE TAXES!!!! Yeeeee-Haaaw!!! (or should I just throw up a hand sign so that the community organizer in charge better understands what I was emoting above?)

 

I don't think we're out of the woods, but I think it's rather humorous how you guys don't acknowledge any positive economic news. Your guy's disdain for Obama's policies creates a Pavlovian sky is falling chicken little mentality no matter what the issue, to the point it's obvious many of you don't want the economy to improve under his watch.

[dmarc117]

[Perchoutofwater]

 

 

 

I don't think we're out of the woods, but I think it's rather humorous how you guys don't acknowledge any positive economic news. Your guy's disdain for Obama's policies creates a Pavlovian sky is falling chicken little mentality no matter what the issue, to the point it's obvious many of you don't want the economy to improve under his watch.

 

See Az's response. We are currently in a very weak recovery, that in many was is weaker than it should be largely impart to the uncertainty created by legislative agenda of Obama, Pelosi and Reid. We should be seeing much stronger gains, and unemployment dropping quickly but the uncertainty created by the legislation shoved down our throats has severely hampered the recovery.

[SEC=UGA]

 

 

 

I don't think we're out of the woods, but I think it's rather humorous how you guys don't acknowledge any positive economic news. Your guy's disdain for Obama's policies creates a Pavlovian sky is falling chicken little mentality no matter what the issue, to the point it's obvious many of you don't want the economy to improve under his watch.

 

Bush, with all do respect, the positive economic news has totally evaded my industry and has led to a number of people being unemployed and huge losses for businesses like mine, small businesses that are the economic engine of this country.

 

We are not seeing positive signs, we are out there everyday looking for positive signs. We talk to bankers who tell us that they can not, will not originate commercial loans until something gets worked out with regard to reserve requirements. We have developers and their investors telling us everyday that they can not commit to projects because they do not have certainty as to what the tax consequences are going to be relating to their investments in the near future. We have developers and their investors telling us that they can not move right now because they need to keep their cash liquid for the near term. We can not keep a quote valid for more than 30 days due to volatility in the steel market.

 

You don't have to take my word on this as a conservative whom you attempt to lampoon as being out of touch or trying to make a point simply to make the president look bad... But take my word as a small business owner, there is not a solid recovery in place and the uncertainty with regard to economic and bank policy that this admin and legislature is embarking upon has stifled business growth.

 

Out of the sheer kindness of my heart I am still employing about 6 too many people, the revenue is not here to support them right now. I can not hire, because I don't know what is going to transpire over the next 6 to 12 months. I have to sit on my hands and basically do nothing, hoarding what money I have, until I see a glimmer of hope, a spark of any type. That has not happened and until I see something, hell, even hear something that indicates near term growth I am going to do nothing.

 

So, go ahead, raise taxes, raise my capital gains rate, keep a closer eye on banks and raise the reserve requirement, increase the personal income tax rates, continue to tell me who I will offer insurance to and what type of insurance I must offer, I'll be happy to not provide any new jobs and possibly shut down my business if I begin to feel that I'm not going to be able to recover my losses in a modest amount of time.

 

Do me a favor, pick up the Sept issue of 'Free Enterprise" form the US Chamber of Commerce and read it, this is what businesses are thinking about and what is stymieing growth. The current economic and social policies are turning business in the US upside down. Hell, just read the latest interview with Bernie Marcus, he sums it up pretty nicely.

 

And with regard to us not wanting the economy improve under his watch, that is a complete and total load of sh*t. You think i enjoy sitting here and losing damn near $160K a month? You're wrong.

Edited September 20, 2010 by SEC=UGA

[Azazello1313]

I don't think we're out of the woods, but I think it's rather humorous how you guys don't acknowledge any positive economic news.

 

not quite as humorous as your desperate, yet feeble attempt to portray the NBER's predictable dating of the recession's technical bottom to 15 months ago as "positive economic news".

[Ursa Majoris]

I think everyone's known that for quite a while. the problem is that the "recovery" is complete garbage. the economy should be recovering -- coming out of a recession the economy usually grows above trend -- but it is stagnant. why do we still have 10% unemployment 15 months after the recession "ended"?

I think "recession" should be redefined, particularly what defines the "end". It's all fine and dandy to have a technical "end" that a bunch of desk jockeys can agree on but is it really reflective of the real world? No - and if it isn't, what's the point of it?

[Yukon Cornelius]

:AZZ: Read this :AZZ

[Perchoutofwater]

Bush, with all do respect, the positive economic news has totally evaded my industry and has led to a number of people being unemployed and huge losses for businesses like mine, small businesses that are the economic engine of this country.

 

We are not seeing positive signs, we are out there everyday looking for positive signs. We talk to bankers who tell us that they can not, will not originate commercial loans until something gets worked out with regard to reserve requirements. We have developers and their investors telling us everyday that they can not commit to projects because they do not have certainty as to what the tax consequences are going to be relating to their investments in the near future. We have developers and their investors telling us that they can not move right now because they need to keep their cash liquid for the near term. We can not keep a quote valid for more than 30 days due to volatility in the steel market.

 

You don't have to take my word on this as a conservative whom you attempt to lampoon as being out of touch or trying to make a point simply to make the president look bad... But take my word as a small business owner, there is not a solid recovery in place and the uncertainty with regard to economic and bank policy that this admin and legislature is embarking upon has stifled business growth.

 

Out of the sheer kindness of my heart I am still employing about 6 too many people, the revenue is not here to support them right now. I can not hire, because I don't know what is going to transpire over the next 6 to 12 months. I have to sit on my hands and basically do nothing, hoarding what money I have, until I see a glimmer of hope, a spark of any type. That has not happened and until I see something, hell, even hear something that indicates near term growth I am going to do nothing.

 

So, go ahead, raise taxes, raise my capital gains rate, keep a closer eye on banks and raise the reserve requirement, increase the personal income tax rates, continue to tell me who I will offer insurance to and what type of insurance I must offer, I'll be happy to not provide any new jobs and possibly shut down my business if I begin to feel that I'm not going to be able to recover my losses in a modest amount of time.

 

Do me a favor, pick up the Sept issue of 'Free Enterprise" form the US Chamber of Commerce and read it, this is what businesses are thinking about and what is stymieing growth. The current economic and social policies are turning business in the US upside down. Hell, just read the latest interview with Bernie Marcus, he sums it up pretty nicely.

 

And with regard to us not wanting the economy improve under his watch, that is a complete and total load of sh*t. You think i enjoy sitting here and losing damn near $160K a month? You're wrong.

 

I'm seeing exactly the same thing on all fronts, only I'm not as nice as you and have trimmed by payroll by 10% in the last week or two. Private work is almost dead due to uncertainty over future tax liability. The one sector that should be bright is medical, but it doesn't know which way to go until the courts get through with Obamacare. The only thing left is schools, and the likelihood of them passing bonds this fall is not very good. I've said it since before Obama took office, the best thing he could have done was to extend the tax cuts and freeze all spending until unemployment was back around 6%. If he had done that instead of pushing his health care, cap and tax, and stimulus bills we would already be well on our way to a robust recovery. Unfortunately, now everyone is sitting on their hands and their money trying to figure out how all the passed and proposed legislation will affect them with regards to taxation, regulation and force employee benefits, and energy costs.

[wiegie]

the best picture of the recession that I have:

 

http://picasaweb.google.com/lh/photo/1-iwz...feat=directlink

 

note 3 things:

1) the recent up-and-down blip is due to temporary census workers

2) it's not clear at all that the recovery from this recession is worse than the recovery from the 1990 and 2001 recessions (in terms of the upward slopes of the curves relative to the initial downturns

3) the labor market is going to take years to recover no matter what happens

[Pope Flick]

I'm as skeptical of this proclaimed 'recovery' as I was when we had 5% unemployment, but it included part-time jobs, perpetual temp status and the erosion of benefits along the way as normal 'employment' - this recovery is wafer thin at best and I don't see how you can realistically argue against that. Part of the reason, of course is because we've had years of part-time jobs, perpetual temp status and the erosion of benefits along the way...

[WaterMan]

Where's Clinton when you need him?

[CaP'N GRuNGe]

I think everyone's known that for quite a while. the problem is that the "recovery" is complete garbage. the economy should be recovering -- coming out of a recession the economy usually grows above trend -- but it is stagnant. why do we still have 10% unemployment 15 months after the recession "ended"?

 

Because technology has allowed business to embrace running leaner and meaner as they had become bloated with too large of a workforce. That and its cheaper to get more work out of employees that are afraid to lose their job in down economic times. The unemployment leading to lower consumer demand and a downward deflationary cycle that self reinforces itself.

 

But I suppose you were looking for an answer that you could use to hang the blame directly on the Obamessiah's shoulders.

Edited September 20, 2010 by CaP'N GRuNGe

[tosberg34]

Because technology has allowed business to embrace running leaner and meaner as they had become bloated with too large of a workforce. That and its cheaper to get more work out of employees that are afraid to lose their job in down economic times. The unemployment leading to lower consumer demand and a downward deflationary cycle that self reinforces itself.

 

But I suppose you were looking for an answer that you could use to hang the blame directly on the Obamessiah's shoulders.

 

You're right. Obama has nothing to do with this mess whatsoever. Good point.

[bpwallace49]

You're right. Obama has nothing to do with this mess whatsoever. Good point.

 

Blaming all of this on Obama is beyond stupid. Try and look beyond you petty vendetta against Obama. All that hate'll burn you up son . . .

 

 

PS- No way the recession is over . . . when people start crawling out of their bank accounts and start spending again, THEN we might see some real growth. Until then, no way in hell.

 

Aside: I am in an industry that caters to the rich of the rich and is purely run on discretionary dollars. We have no reason to exist as a company without the "idle rich" spending a LOT of money every year to play golf. We are GROWING in membership right now, as clubs that cater to the middle class around me are have major financial issues.

[tosberg34]

Blaming all of this on Obama is beyond stupid. Try and look beyond you petty vendetta against Obama. All that hate'll burn you up son . . .

 

 

PS- No way the recession is over . . . when people start crawling out of their bank accounts and start spending again, THEN we might see some real growth. Until then, no way in hell.

 

Aside: I am in an industry that caters to the rich of the rich and is purely run on discretionary dollars. We have no reason to exist as a company without the "idle rich" spending a LOT of money every year to play golf. We are GROWING in membership right now, as clubs that cater to the middle class around me are have major financial issues.

 

For the record, I wasn't blaming ALL of this on Obama. However, It's just as disingenuous to also say (or imply) that he has NOTHING to do with the current situation.

[bpwallace49]

For the record, I wasn't blaming ALL of this on Obama. However, It's just as disingenuous to also say (or imply) that he has NOTHING to do with the current situation.

 

What you quoted was not absolving Obama one iota, but was merely pointing out that the excuse du jour is to blame everything on the "Obamamessiah" and not stick to facts or reason.

 

I am sure that people get all warm and fuzzy inside when they can pin the blame on one person (Bush, Obama), but it would be nice if people looked beyond the rhetoric and realize that NONE OF THIS lies with one person.

 

You are trying to start a partisan pissing contest when there really isnt one to be started . . . . but dont let that fact stop you.

[tosberg34]

What you quoted was not absolving Obama one iota, but was merely pointing out that the excuse du jour is to blame everything on the "Obamamessiah" and not stick to facts or reason.

 

I am sure that people get all warm and fuzzy inside when they can pin the blame on one person (Bush, Obama), but it would be nice if people looked beyond the rhetoric and realize that NONE OF THIS lies with one person.

 

You are trying to start a partisan pissing contest when there really isnt one to be started . . . . but dont let that fact stop you.

 

I think you're reading too much into it. I wasn't trying to absolve Obama nor blame him for everything. Who's trying to start the pissing contest? Let it lie dude and stop trying to find something that isn't there.

Edited September 21, 2010 by tosberg34

[Perchoutofwater]

"I'm exhausted defending you!"

 

Too bad some here can't be as honest.

[evil_gop_liars]

Too bad some here can't be as honest.

 

[CaP'N GRuNGe]

What policies has Obama put in place specifically that have caused the economy not to snap back into place as you'd expect after a serious recession? And don't give me all this "uncertainty" nonsense.

 

I still posit that we live in a new world, global economy, technology, etc and you simply can't expect the system to work like it used to. Business has become more efficient and doesn't need the labor force it used to. Depressed demand has lead everyone to run a tighter ship and figure out ways to do things with less people. IMO the problem is more of a systemic natural outcome of the very nature of how our economic relationships have evolved.