detlef Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I'd be extremely interested to know what the odds of the Giants winning the SB (going into the 2008 playoff's) were. I'm sure they were a "suckers bet" too! Or the myriad other teams who have run the table from the wildcard seed? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CEO of the Barefoots Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Love hearing the love for the Giants... I tossed $200 on them to win the NFC at 15-1 about 3 weeks ago. Go GMen Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CEO of the Barefoots Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Best on-line sites to play one of those lines??? Suggestions, good experiences? Any to avoid? Thx in advance. I use www.pinnaclesports.com Always quick payouts sportsinteraction.com is another good site. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rajncajn Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 So you're saying there's still a chance? This won't be the same Lions team that played us earlier in the season. I see a lot less mistakes & a lot more scoring. Nothing like the game against Green Bay, but I do think Detroit will make it very competitive and could easily pull an upset. They're a much better team than Seattle was last year & we saw how that went. The biggest thing you have going against you though is you have to play in the Superdome and that place is going to be insanely loud. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 This won't be the same Lions team that played us earlier in the season. I see a lot less mistakes & a lot more scoring. Nothing like the game against Green Bay, but I do think Detroit will make it very competitive and could easily pull an upset. They're a much better team than Seattle was last year & we saw how that went. The biggest thing you have going against you though is you have to play in the Superdome and that place is going to be insanely loud. This. As a straight up bet, I'm taking the Saints everyday on this one, but it's not going to be the shocker of the century if the Lions manage to win this one. And, considering I think the Saints are the team to beat in the whole tourney, well... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Menudo Posted January 4, 2012 Author Share Posted January 4, 2012 Or the myriad other teams who have run the table from the wildcard seed? Packer last year Steelers in 2005 Any others ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I'd be extremely interested to know what the odds of the Giants winning the SB (going into the 2008 playoff's) were. I'm sure they were a "suckers bet" too! I wouldn't call any team with a top 5 D, the best rushing O in the NFL, and a starting QB with a better than 2:1 TD/INT ratio and almost 7 ypa a sucker bet. Plus the Giants started with a relatively weak TB team in round 1 that year, then caught Romo's Cowboys in Rd 2 - and we all know how well Romo plays in the playoffs. The Lions this year are 23rd in the NFL in total D, and have a one dimensional O with their running game ranked the 4th worst in the NFL. They're catching NO & Brees in NO, where they are extremely tough, and then if they get through that likely have to travel to SF and deal with that D and rushing game, and if they somehow manage to get through that have to make a January visit outside to Lambeau field, where GB's 2nd string QB just torched their D for almost 500 passing yds and 6 passing TDs. To make any kind of meaningful comparison between the Giants in '07-'08 and this Lions' team and path through the playoffs is a hugh reach to say the least and doesn't really make a hell of a lot of sense, to be honest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Packer last yearSteelers in 2005 Any others ? 97 Broncos 2000 Ravens Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I wouldn't call any team with a top 5 D, the best rushing O in the NFL, and a starting QB with a better than 2:1 TD/INT ratio and almost 7 ypa a sucker bet. Plus the Giants started with a relatively weak TB team in round 1 that year, then caught Romo's Cowboys in Rd 2 - and we all know how well Romo plays in the playoffs. The Lions this year are 23rd in the NFL in total D, and have a one dimensional O with their running game ranked the 4th worst in the NFL. They're catching NO & Brees in NO, where they are extremely tough, and then if they get through that likely have to travel to SF and deal with that D and rushing game, and if they somehow manage to get through that have to make a January visit outside to Lambeau field, where GB's 2nd string QB just torched their D for almost 500 passing yds and 6 passing TDs. To make any kind of meaningful comparison between the Giants in '07-'08 and this Lions' team and path through the playoffs is a hugh reach to say the least and doesn't really make a hell of a lot of sense, to be honest. It's a lot easier to look back at the reasons why the Giants ran the table now than it was at the time. They lost 2 of their last 3 regular season games, including a 12 point loss to a Washington team that ended up 6-7 at the time. Hindsight is 20/20. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 (edited) It's a lot easier to look back at the reasons why the Giants ran the table now than it was at the time. They lost 2 of their last 3 regular season games, including a 12 point loss to a Washington team that ended up 6-7 at the time. Hindsight is 20/20. Hindsight might be but stats aren't, nor was the Giants' D-line and running game. Those numbers and their rankings in the NFL are irrefutable, as were the capabilities and weakneses of their first 2 playoff opponents. The Giants' team/playoff situation in '07-'08 and this Lions team/playoff situation aren't even remotely comparable. If you want to make some kind of closer comparison, I'd say the Lions are in a similar situation to last year's Packers team - but the DET D isn't nearly as opportunistic, DET doesn't have a Starks emerging, and Stafford while very good isn't Rodgers. Plus DET's immaturity can take them off their game in a heartbeat. I can't see a scenario of how DET can get through NO, SF, and GB on the road. That's a murderer's row this season. There'd need to be a couple of substantial playoff upsets besides DET beating NO in NO, and I can't foresee both SF and GB losing in thier first playoff game after the byes, which is what it would take IMO. The odds are way too long given the quality of the top teams. Edited January 4, 2012 by Bronco Billy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SecondString Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I use www.pinnaclesports.com Always quick payouts sportsinteraction.com is another good site. Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevegrab Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 97 Broncos2000 Ravens So counting the Giants and the two Menudo posted that is 5 times in the last 15 years, or about 20%. Not a myriad of teams, but not really such a long shot to be a WC team and go on to win the SB. Parity, being hot at the right time, and all that jazz. Of this years 4 WC I think PIT has best chance to succeed, then DET. Of the division winners I think DEN has the least chance to succeed followed by HOU (too young and untested in the playoffs, I think every AFC team can give them some trouble). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 (edited) So counting the Giants and the two Menudo posted that is 5 times in the last 15 years, or about 20%. Not a myriad of teams, but not really such a long shot to be a WC team and go on to win the SB. Parity, being hot at the right time, and all that jazz. Of this years 4 WC I think PIT has best chance to succeed, then DET. Of the division winners I think DEN has the least chance to succeed followed by HOU (too young and untested in the playoffs, I think every AFC team can give them some trouble). Actually, 5 goes into 15 three times. Exactly as many time as 4 goes into 12. Four being the number of wild card teams and 12 being the total number of teams in the play-offs. In other words, wild card teams win the whole thing exactly as often as division winners do. At least over the last 15 years. Edited January 4, 2012 by detlef Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delusions of grandeur Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I can't see a scenario of how DET can get through NO, SF, and GB on the road. That's a murderer's row this season. There'd need to be a couple of substantial playoff upsets besides DET beating NO in NO, and I can't foresee both SF and GB losing in thier first playoff game after the byes, which is what it would take IMO. The odds are way too long given the quality of the top teams. I know this only helps your point, but if the Lions win versus the Saints, they would face GB in round 2, being the 6th seed. It's definitely a long shot, but that's why I'd take more than 1 team at those odds, and still come out way ahead if one of them hits. I mean, you can lay 5 bucks down on a few teams that aren't totally sucker bets, and have a chance to walk away with 80, 200, 250? The point is, you're taking them for the tremendous odds (better than you can get for a playoff contender in preseason/regular season in most cases), and double or triple up on decent fliers, and you still come out WAY ahead of picking one of the "obvious" ones, where the likelihood is heavily priced into the odds... That's all we're saying... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I know this only helps your point, but if the Lions win versus the Saints, they would face GB in round 2, being the 6th seed. Yup, that's right and my mistake. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delusions of grandeur Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 (edited) It definitely looks like the paths are priced in for both the Falcons and the Lions, with the Falcons being the one with potential for an easier path (but still much chance for a tough one). The Lions will face the toughest path regardless, but the Falcons path will be influenced by what the Lions do. If the Saints beat the Lions, then it would then be the Falcons having to face the Pack, and of course makes for a good chance the Falcons would have to face the Saints in the NFCC after that. Ouch! But if the Lions knock off the Saints, then I think you see the Falcons odds shoot up, as ATL would then only have to face the Giants and Niners, and even potentially the Lions at home if they somehow knock off the Packers too... Still by no means an easy route, but Atlanta's playoff path is a big wildcard in whether they have to face one or both of the big 2 (Packers and Saints), or if it gets considerably easier. Edited January 4, 2012 by delusions of granduer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevegrab Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Actually, 5 goes into 15 three times. Exactly as many time as 4 goes into 12. Four being the number of wild card teams and 12 being the total number of teams in the play-offs. In other words, wild card teams win the whole thing exactly as often as division winners do. At least over the last 15 years. Good catch on the bad math. The fact that WC teams have won as often (relative to their numbers in playoffs) over the last 15 years is pretty amazing. Weren't the 97 Broncos the first WC to win, or had the Raiders done that before (I thought I saw that, or at least were first WC to be in SB). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Good catch on the bad math. The fact that WC teams have won as often (relative to their numbers in playoffs) over the last 15 years is pretty amazing. Weren't the 97 Broncos the first WC to win, or had the Raiders done that before (I thought I saw that, or at least were first WC to be in SB). Raiders won out of the 5 seed (when there were three division champs and 2 wild card teams that played for the right to face off against the #1 seed). Prior to that, I think only KC did in the late 60s but then there were 3 division winners and 1 wild card so they didn't have to play an extra game or anything. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cunning Runt Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Thanks. I had no idea how odds work. You can bet $10 to win $1,000,000 and all you are doing is wasting $10 if the likelihood of the event coming to pass is extreme. The Lions being a dome team and beating NO, SF, and GB all on the road is just that - hence the long odds to draw the suckers. I dunno. I was visiting my in-laws in Tampa last week and we found ourselves at the horse track just for something different to do. I let my 10yr old son put $2 on a horse to win and he chose one with 68 to 1 odds at post time. $136 in our pocket later and methinks it's worth taking a shot on long odds now and again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I dunno. I was visiting my in-laws in Tampa last week and we found ourselves at the horse track just for something different to do. I let my 10yr old son put $2 on a horse to win and he chose one with 68 to 1 odds at post time. $136 in our pocket later and methinks it's worth taking a shot on long odds now and again. Let me know when that same horse wins 4 in a row after moving up a class - because that would be the equivalent of what DET is likely going to have to do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeeR Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 97 Broncos2000 Ravens 80 Raiders I like Falcs and Saints. IMO Saints or NE are taking this and 5-1 is good fn odds for IMO the best team out there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delusions of grandeur Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Thinking about it, you have to be getting much worse odds for the Giants than Falcons because it's such a big market team (hence they don't have to give great odds for people to take them). The reason I say this is that the Giants need the exact same thing as the Falcons do to avoid an ultra tough path to the Superbowl. In fact the only percievable edge they have on them is that they get the first round at home. From there, they need a Lions win just the same to avoid having to go to Lambeau and potentially New Orleans the next week. Perhaps still worth a flier bet at 20 to 1, but other than round 1, their path is in no way any easier than the Falcons. There's no other reason besides being a big market why they should get a line double what the Falcons do, even if you like them a bit more than ATL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeeR Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Perhaps still worth a flier bet at 20 to 1, That's all I was saying. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Thinking about it, you have to be getting much worse odds for the Giants than Falcons because it's such a big market team (hence they don't have to give great odds for people to take them). The reason I say this is that the Giants need the exact same thing as the Falcons do to avoid an ultra tough path to the Superbowl. In fact the only percievable edge they have on them is that they get the first round at home. From there, they need a Lions win just the same to avoid having to go to Lambeau and potentially New Orleans the next week. Perhaps still worth a flier bet at 20 to 1, but other than round 1, their path is in no way any easier than the Falcons. There's no other reason besides being a big market why they should get a line double what the Falcons do, even if you like them a bit more than ATL. Pretty sound logic here. Both teams are roughly equivalent offensively and in turnover margin. ATL plays much better D than the Giants, but have a history of collapsing in the playoffs. NY has the home field and a better playoff resume. Pretty well balanced overall - if you have a hankering to take either ATL of NYG on a longshot flier, the odds of twice the payout for ATL would dictate that should be your play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isleseeya Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 (edited) hate to say it as a Giants fan but i see a Gb or Nola vs Pats SB so i think the odds make sense for the most part I think Vegas knows this as well and is hoping / trying to help alot of people take teams like Giants , Falcons , Lions ,etc Edited January 5, 2012 by isleseeya Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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