Rotoworld Experts Mock

[delusions of grandeur]

I would agree he is just a RB2 guy. He has really never been much else. In the last 6 seasons, in a PPR league, he has ranked 15th, 15th, 7th, 12th, 10th and 17th on a team that had nearly no other offensive weapons. Now he is 30 years old in a new system with more tread on his tires than any active RB.

 

 

I can definitely see being wary of older workhorse RBs, though I think we tend to want to predict RB declines and breakout players too early some times. Most were a year early on Turner a couple years ago. It's understandable, since no one wants to be the one left holding the bag when they fall off the cliff, but I see more reason for optimism with Jackson.

 

For one thing, Turners decline was much easier to predict because he was always showing up to camp fat, whereas Jackson has an incredible work ethic and drive, even moreso it seems now that he's finally getting a chance to play for a contender.

 

Now consider that Turner didn't have an entirely horrible season, despite the fact that he'd definitely lost a step, the O-line didn't create big holes, and it was predictable that they'd be running when he was in there.

 

The O-line also struggled in pass protection with injuries, which led to them relying heavily on the screen game to counteract and slow the pass rush. Falcons RBs caught 103 passes last year. So particularly early on this year with a new O-line, there will be struggles that they'll want to offset by relying heavily on the running and screen games. Yes, they might still have trouble making big holes to run through, but Jackson has much better vision to make his own yards.

 

His pass catching ability should also help to keep him fresh. I'm expecting that his receiving and TD numbers will be up, while his carries and rushing yards go down. To me, this means that his floor is still very high barring a major injury or complete breakdown, with a very high ceiling if he still plays at the level he did in St. Louis.

 

And you can't discount that he suffered even more from predictability as the Ram's lone weapon. They will not be able to stack the box on him now with all of the weapons around him, and of course with his ability to catch passes too. He is exactly what the Falcons need to move away from the old predictable Mularkey days. Defenses will just have so many poisons to pick from, that I can see Jackson being used heavily to exploit it.

[delusions of grandeur]

Edit: will make a new thread regarding the Falcons passing game instead of derailing this thread.

Edited June 8, 2013 by delusions of grandeur

[keggerz]

Remember last year when Redman was being drafted so high like 4th-6th rounds in drafts ? I am worried Ivory will be another Redman a guy who has never done much gets thrown into a starting roll then tanks. I just could never take a guy like Ivory over the 3 WR's that you passed up for him in Harvin, Cruz and White...I get that you need a RB but I still think you lost a lot of value at that pick. You also drafted in the fantasy index one last year I was just looking at it that had to be a rough season your 1st 2 picks were Mathews, Nicks. TC Cannon took only 3 RB's in that draft and they were Murray, Best and Gerhart not sure how anyone can just draft those 3 backs he must have been getting double 0s for half the season at RB he could not have finished well.

 

It was, it was also my first non-idp league in I don't remember how long. The draft was also pretty early (pre-Matthews injury of course). As for passing on Harvin, Cruz and White...I did give each a look but this is a best-ball league and I don't think I'll have any issue finding WR3 numbers that overall will be very similar to that trio...As for Ivory, it might seem like a need pick but I don't draft that way...it was a calculated pick that I know being best-ball will help with his value...it's still early so lots can happen from now until the end of the draft, and don't forget that there are IDPs to fill out the roster with too. Last year in the SOFA IDP draft I finished the draft with my RB2 as Matthews, RB3 Jaquizz and RB4 was Hillman...finished reg. season with 200+ pts more than the 2nd best team and had an all-play record of 101-42 (.706). Like I said, a long way to go still.

[keggerz]

I would much rather have Forte and White or Cruz in a PPR league than Marshall and Ivory. By a mile. And I'm high on the Ivory sleeper idea. Even Wilson is too much risk for my blood. That guy wasn't just in the doghouse last year, he was dead, buried, and the earth salted on his grave. It's way early still and they could easily bring another guy in - and Ryan Torain could even steal some thunder.

 

The more I prepare for the season, the more I think you can't afford to go WR/WR. RB's are too steep a dropoff this year. I've done it many times in the past, and always felt better about it, but that's just scary stuff right there. Maybe the RB's will develop as the preseason goes along, but I don't see the reward that outweighs the risk.

 

edit: good lord I didn't even notice Harvin was available too. No question, I want at least one RB in the 1/2 swing. There's nothing stopping you from taking two more if great ones are available, but you're almost forced to go RB there when the BPA are clearly at other positions. Not sure what Olinger is trying to accomplish going 4xRB, but his potential was Richardson and Morris with Harvin and Cruz. Wow.

 

I like Harvin but not 100% sure what to expect with the move to SEA...plus added risk with his migraines. The Cruz holdout pushes him down a bit for me, and as solid as Roddy has been and will be with this being a best-ball format I think I can easily replicate his numbers by streaming WR3-5.

[Caveman_Nick]

I don't love the ivory pick. I think Gore would have been the guy there. Jmo...not saying it won't turn out right, but there is more to my not likening ivory than injury history. The QB situation being up in the air is one, and the fact that he's not entrenched as the feature back. I know they traded for him, but they didn't give up that much. He's no lock for a ton of carries.

 

I just would have preferred Gore and gone after his handcuffs later.

[Grogansghost]

I gave consideration to AJ Green, Marshall and Dez as the WRs I wanted to get 2 of based on how I expected the draft to break...in digging a bit deeper is when I realized that Dez, had four games with 4 or fewer catches to close the season out...that and I wasn't overly impressed with his target numbers

 

 

Now that you mentioned that - I remember being frustrated a lot with how Dallas seemed to have games where they just went away from Dez in terms of targets. I never understood why they were doing that. A lot of his games were based on big plays instead of being fed a steady number of targets. Based on how he improved, and the fact that Garrett lost his play calling -- I'd assume he'll be a focus from the start this year. On the one hand - you worry if his type of production is sustainable on the number of targets - on the other hand, what could he do if they actually give him more targets.

 

The obvious argument for Marshall is that we already know he's getting the targets no matter what - and maybe the new coach helps the offense open up.

[Henry Muto]

Wow Bradshaw pick 55...

[Tripleshot]

Wow Bradshaw pick 55...

 

 

Yeah, I choked on my beer when I saw that too. I heard he was in Indy last week hoping to get a change of pace jobshare spot with Vic Ballard. For what, 5 games before his foot falls off?

[Caveman_Nick]

I don't love the ivory pick. I think Gore would have been the guy there. Jmo...not saying it won't turn out right, but there is more to my not likening ivory than injury history. The QB situation being up in the air is one, and the fact that he's not entrenched as the feature back. I know they traded for him, but they didn't give up that much. He's no lock for a ton of carries.

 

I just would have preferred Gore and gone after his handcuffs later.

 

 

I love it less seeing Ryan Matthews go off the board at 5.05. I could say that about a lot of picks before Matthews. Very interesting draft, for sure.

[tazinib1]

Wow Bradshaw pick 55...

 

 

Some value RB picks still out there too.

[keggerz]

Added Torrey Smith as WR3...best-ball format makes Smith -- imo -- a great WR3. I fully expect 2 WRs to come off the board back to back at the turn....fwiw, I gave two other WRs consideration but in the end liked Smith just a bit more due to fewer question marks...I'll explain once those WRs come off the board.

[tazinib1]

Added Torrey Smith as WR3...best-ball format makes Smith -- imo -- a great WR3. I fully expect 2 WRs to come off the board back to back at the turn....fwiw, I gave two other WRs consideration but in the end liked Smith just a bit more due to fewer question marks...I'll explain once those WRs come off the board.

 

 

you did well IMO. I consider T.Smith a low end WR2 with upside.

[Henry Muto]

I am not a huge Smith fan though best ball helps his value there is another WR I would have gone with a few others before him though that are still on board.

[Henry Muto]

QB value has sure fallen this year. Rodgers and Brees were late 1st, early 2nds last year both going mid 3rd here - that is where they have gone in my leagues as well for 4 pts TD pass though -2 for INT makes them a little more valuable don't like -2 INT that's too much in my opinion. Anyway still a lot of stud QBs out there for it being the 6th round. In my leagues usually Brady, Newton, Peyton go in the 5th they all fell out of the 5th here some teams will get great value at QB while others are going to just miss out. I think you get a significant advantage for the teams that land the true top studs left in the 6th round while the other teams end up taking the next tier of QBs in the 7th round.

[keggerz]

QB value has sure fallen this year. Rodgers and Brees were late 1st, early 2nds last year both going mid 3rd here - that is where they have gone in my leagues as well for 4 pts TD pass though -2 for INT makes them a little more valuable don't like -2 INT that's too much in my opinion. Anyway still a lot of stud QBs out there for it being the 6th round. In my leagues usually Brady, Newton, Peyton go in the 5th they all fell out of the 5th here some teams will get great value at QB while others are going to just miss out. I think you get a significant advantage for the teams that land the true top studs left in the 6th round while the other teams end up taking the next tier of QBs in the 7th round.

 

Seems that people are finally starting to realize that QB value is far behind the other positions...I've been teasing this all year but I have some research that will make you look at the QB position much differently...I'll be posting it in an article soon, not soon enough, but soon. Edited June 9, 2013 by keggerz

[Henry Muto]

Seems that people are finally starting to realize that QB value is far behind the other positions...I've been teasing this all year but I have some research that will make you look at the QB position much differently...I'll be posting it in an article soon, not soon enough, but soon.

 

Except when the QB you pick (Like a Vick last year) ends up sucking and you were wondering why in the heck did I take Ryan Mathews over a sure fire guy like Rodgers and you struggle at QB. When a lot of these RBs end up busts in rounds 1-5 people will be saying why did they pass on elite QB for a stiff RB happens every year. I took Tom Brady at the 1.7 last year won a $100,000 beat 1871 other teams so I guess that worked out ok and I never take a QB early (6 pts per TD pass)

Edited June 9, 2013 by Henry Muto

[stethant]

Seems that people are finally starting to realize that QB value is far behind the other positions...

 

 

Possible, but more likely they're 1) freaking out at what they perceive is a shallow RB pool and 2) think the QB position is deep enough they can wait on one without losing much. I didn't win $100K doing anything last year, let alone FFL, but would agree that a stud QB falling into rounds 3-5 is an absolute gift if you're positioned to take advantage of it.

[Henry Muto]

Peyton Manning in the 7th drafted after studs like Stewart and Andre Brown.

[Henry Muto]

The thing about this year it seems there are 12 guys that are QB 1 worthy so as long as someone doesn't grab a 2nd QB before you get your 1st and you feel RG3 is going to be fine then you can wait until the cows come home to grab your QB.

[keggerz]

Possible, but more likely they're 1) freaking out at what they perceive is a shallow RB pool and 2) think the QB position is deep enough they can wait on one without losing much. I didn't win $100K doing anything last year, let alone FFL, but would agree that a stud QB falling into rounds 3-5 is an absolute gift if you're positioned to take advantage of it.

 

Make sure to be on the lookout for my article/research...it might change your mind.

[flemingd]

QB's are going to be hugely devalued in a best ball format. That consistent 25 you get from Manning isn't nearly so compelling when you can draft Wilson, Alex Smith, and Big Ben and have a solid shot at 25 from any one of them on any given Sunday.

[keggerz]

QB's are going to be hugely devalued in a best ball format. That consistent 25 you get from Manning isn't nearly so compelling when you can draft Wilson, Alex Smith, and Big Ben and have a solid shot at 25 from any one of them on any given Sunday.

 

Kaboom

[Henry Muto]

Except in best ball the 13-24 QBs actually go up in value since there is always usually a few teams that are drafting 2 of the top 12 QBs going like RG3+Luck in the 7th/8th rounds. Your QB2 you end up drafting much earlier than a redraft league.

[Henry Muto]

Also the name of this says "Rotoworld Experts Mock" so to me that isn't saying to me that this is going to be played out as a real league best ball style. To me that says this is a mock draft for a normal league that is not going to be played. So which is it a mock draft or a real draft being played out best ball style ? Makes some difference.

[keggerz]

Added Giovani Bernard at 6.2...I generally don't like rooks but it won't take much involvement for Bernard to at a minimum have RB3 value and in this full PPR format I think he very well could be a RB2.