Help with keepers!?

[opopopop]

12 team 2 keeper league .5ppr. I need to select two keepers. The cost of each keeper is a round ahead of where they were selected the previous year. If continuously kept then the cost goes up by one round every year. This is new in our league so id like some input. Here is my options and the rounds that it would cost me this year if i kept whatever 2. Now if i two players with the same round are kept, then one of them would advance an extra round. so if two 2nd rounders were kept, one would cost a 1st and the other would cost a 2nd

 

James Conner-undrafted would cost me a 17th 

 

JUJU-2nd round

 

Dalvin Cook-1st round

 

Damien Williams-went undrafted would cost me a 17th 

 

Travis Kelce 3rd round

 

Beckahm JR-1st

 

After my projection of who each team keeps. I should be picking 5th overall. Top available without counting anybody I keep 
DJ,Julio,Beckham,Keenan Allen,Cook,Fournette,Mike Evans

 

after that I’m picking 11th out of 12 

[zips5000]

Pretty easy in my mind.  Keep Conner and Kelce.

[Montana is da Man]

Conner and Williams

[Shaft]

Conner and Williams

[Big Country]

Cook, Beckham and JuJu in my opinion are easy passes at their cost, you gain nothing by taking them there.

 

Kelce is intriguing for obvious reasons, but at the cost of a third, not exactly massive value, though still some there at that pick.

 

Assuming you start 2 RBs, I think it is hard to pass on the value that Conner and Williams present. Allows you to really focus on best player available in the draft early.

 

If I'm choosing right now, I keep the two RBs and maximize my ability to go best player available throughout the early part of the draft.

[opopopop]

3 hours ago, Big Country said:

Cook, Beckham and JuJu in my opinion are easy passes at their cost, you gain nothing by taking them there.

 

Kelce is intriguing for obvious reasons, but at the cost of a third, not exactly massive value, though still some there at that pick.

 

Assuming you start 2 RBs, I think it is hard to pass on the value that Conner and Williams present. Allows you to really focus on best player available in the draft early.

 

If I'm choosing right now, I keep the two RBs and maximize my ability to go best player available throughout the early part of the draft.

At what point do you side with talent over value? 

[Shaft]

15 minutes ago, opopopop said:

At what point do you side with talent over value? 

I think his point is there is little to no value in keeping Beckham and losing a first round pick. Beckham himself is barely a first round pick this year. You would get that talent back in the first round.

[opopopop]

1 hour ago, Shaft said:

I think his point is there is little to no value in keeping Beckham and losing a first round pick. Beckham himself is barely a first round pick this year. You would get that talent back in the first round.

It’s a keeper league and I’m picking 5th at best. That’s why I listed who the top available is and also include whoever I don’t keep including mike Evans. Also I have 0 intentions on keeping Beckham 

[AJN15]

Yeah either Williams/Conner or Conner/Kelce IMO.

[8rattoon]

No-brainer. Conner and Williams. Too much value there to consider anyone else. Assuming you lose your 16th and 17th rd picks for those, they're essentially free. You'll end up with 4 top 20 players after the first two rounds.

 

[opopopop]

13 hours ago, 8rattoon said:

No-brainer. Conner and Williams. Too much value there to consider anyone else. Assuming you lose your 16th and 17th rd picks for those, they're essentially free. You'll end up with 4 top 20 players after the first two rounds.

 

How do you figure 4 top 20 players? 12 teams with two keepers each 

[League_Champion]

Conner/Kelce & draft Hopkins at 5. You'll have a nice start 

[8rattoon]

Are all of the guys being kept ranked in the top 20? Or are some of them middle-round guys? Round-based keepers means it won't be all studs being kept.

 

Williams and Conner are both generally ranked in the top 20. In addition, you have both of your 1st and 2nd round picks so you'll get two more studs.

 

I was off a bit, but the point remains. Considering other players will be kept, too, and some of them will be top guys, you'll end up with 4 top 30 or 35 guys (by ranking).

[Big Country]

18 hours ago, opopopop said:

At what point do you side with talent over value? 

 

What is more valuable:

- Conner and Williams plus whomever you can get with your first two picks which includes at least one of the 7 you listed.

 

or

 

- two of Cook/JuJu/Kelce plus whomever you'd get in the 16th and 17th (so a kicker and defense maybe?)

 

All I am saying is that given the relative cost of the players you have listed, the picks I would still have, etc., I'm taking Conner and Williams and keeping my early picks. Also, by adding Cook, Beckham, JuJu and Kelce to the draft pool, I have made that pool stronger so I gain a further advantage over those that use their early picks on keepers by increasing the value available at those earlier picks. So while I have already locked up two very good RBs, I also still have my early picks to add very good WRs or even a Kelce back, giving me a much stronger overall team than I would have if I simply used my early picks to keep players that I can get better or equal to in the draft.

[Cfarst79]

Conner Williams, Conner Kelce are the only 2 ways to play it.  I’d more than likely go Conner Kelce

[8rattoon]

2 minutes ago, Big Country said:

 

What is more valuable:

- Conner and Williams plus whomever you can get with your first two picks which includes at least one of the 7 you listed.

 

or

 

- two of Cook/JuJu/Kelce plus whomever you'd get in the 16th and 17th (so a kicker and defense maybe?)

 

All I am saying is that given the relative cost of the players you have listed, the picks I would still have, etc., I'm taking Conner and Williams and keeping my early picks. Also, by adding Cook, Beckham, JuJu and Kelce to the draft pool, I have made that pool stronger so I gain a further advantage over those that use their early picks on keepers by increasing the value available at those earlier picks. So while I have already locked up two very good RBs, I also still have my early picks to add very good WRs or even a Kelce back, giving me a much stronger overall team than I would have if I simply used my early picks to keep players that I can get better or equal to in the draft.

This.

[opopopop]

36 minutes ago, League_Champion said:

Conner/Kelce & draft Hopkins at 5. You'll have a nice start 

OMG there are 24 KEEPERS BEFORE THE DRAFT. HOPKINS IS BEING KEPT 

[opopopop]

14 minutes ago, Big Country said:

 

What is more valuable:

- Conner and Williams plus whomever you can get with your first two picks which includes at least one of the 7 you listed.

 

or

 

- two of Cook/JuJu/Kelce plus whomever you'd get in the 16th and 17th (so a kicker and defense maybe?)

 

All I am saying is that given the relative cost of the players you have listed, the picks I would still have, etc., I'm taking Conner and Williams and keeping my early picks. Also, by adding Cook, Beckham, JuJu and Kelce to the draft pool, I have made that pool stronger so I gain a further advantage over those that use their early picks on keepers by increasing the value available at those earlier picks. So while I have already locked up two very good RBs, I also still have my early picks to add very good WRs or even a Kelce back, giving me a much stronger overall team than I would have if I simply used my early picks to keep players that I can get better or equal to in the draft.

Thanks for the input. The question I’m trying to figure out, cause this is the first year of this format. Is when does keeping better players such as juju and Kelce override value? 

[8rattoon]

Do you know exactly whom is being kept? That information is useful (although I doubt it will change my Conner/Williams position).

[Montana is da Man]

1 minute ago, opopopop said:

Thanks for the input. The question I’m trying to figure out, cause this is the first year of this format. Is when does keeping better players such as juju and Kelce override value? 

 

This is my personal opinion, but when you can keep 2 solid RBs and only lose your last 2 picks, it's a huge help.  Your 2 starting RBs positions are already covered and you have draft picks in the first 5 rounds.  I think you'd be off to a fantastic start. 

 

Last year I kept Kamara and McKinnon in a keeper league because they cost me a 16th and 17th round pick (before McKinnon got hurt.)  I let 3 top 30 players go to keep the better value.

[8rattoon]

Here's an example of where it overrides:

 

Last year, I had the option to keep Gurley at 1-10 Or Tyreek at 13-10. Although Hill would have been a much better value (and probably wouldn't have cost me the championship like Gurley did!), I couldn't pass up taking the CLEAR #1 player at 10th overall. This was also after some keepers, so it was really more like 15th overall since 5 guys before him were kept.

 

It is important to keep in mind that not all 24 keepers are ranked ahead of your top options. Many will be mid-rd value guys unless the managers in your league are all clueless. 

[8rattoon]

Here's another way to look at it:

 

Scenario 1. Keep JuJu 2nd, Kelce 3rd.

 

Your likely team after rds 1 - 3, 16 - 17:

1. Bell or Julio (just a guess based on what may fall to you. I went with a RB option and a WR option.)

2. JuJu

3. Kelce

16. Probable scrub?

17. Kicker?

 

Scenario 2: Keep Conner 16, Williams 17

 

Your likely team after rds 1 - 3, 16 - 17:

1. Bell or Julio

2. K Allen

3. Kittle

16. Conner

17. Williams

 

Which looks better to you?

 

 

[opopopop]

48 minutes ago, 8rattoon said:

Here's another way to look at it:

 

Scenario 1. Keep JuJu 2nd, Kelce 3rd.

 

Your likely team after rds 1 - 3, 16 - 17:

1. Bell or Julio (just a guess based on what may fall to you. I went with a RB option and a WR option.)

2. JuJu

3. Kelce

16. Probable scrub?

17. Kicker?

 

Scenario 2: Keep Conner 16, Williams 17

 

Your likely team after rds 1 - 3, 16 - 17:

1. Bell or Julio

2. K Allen

3. Kittle

16. Conner

17. Williams

 

Which looks better to you?

 

 

Bell no. I listed the top available after who I expect to be kept. DJ,Julio,Beckham,Keenan Allen,Cook,Evans,Fournette and WHOEVER I do not keep. Then after I’d be selecting 11th but 5th because of who other teams kept in the first 

Edited August 2, 2019 by opopopop

[8rattoon]

1 hour ago, opopopop said:

Bell no. I listed the top available after who I expect to be kept. DJ,Julio,Beckham,Keenan Allen,Cook,Evans,Fournette and WHOEVER I do not keep. Then after I’d be selecting 11th but 5th because of who other teams kept in the first 

Ok, sorry if I didn't prognosticate the EXACT player that may fall to you, but that's not the point. I'm not sure you even know who will be taken before each of your first two picks, let alone me being able to predict it. Someone is gonna shake things up by taking Mahomes early, etc. 

 

I don't know how to more clearly illustrate this to you than by comparing the two scenarios above. Substitute who you will in those non-keeper rounds but the caliber of player you get will be in that ballpark regardless.

 

I'd keep Williams 16th and Conner 17th barring injury. Good luck.

 

 

 

 

 

[Big Country]

2 hours ago, opopopop said:

Thanks for the input. The question I’m trying to figure out, cause this is the first year of this format. Is when does keeping better players such as juju and Kelce override value? 

 

It's all situation specific. You have to compare what each player costs to the value they give you and also the value the pick would give you.

 

If Conner and Williams were going to cost you say a 4th and a 5th round pick, they are still good value there, but not nearly what you are currently getting, and the equation above now becomes what is better - Conner/Williams plus your 1st two picks or a JuJu/Kelce plus what you are likely to get in the 4th and 5th instead of 16th/17th

 

You need to come up with a best guess on who will be kept so you know what the player pool is, then come up with a range of players likely to be available at your picks, just use ADP and your knowledge of your leaguemates to build this range. Look at the possible combos available to you, figure out which one you think is best and put that plan into action. Focusing too much on a specific player at a specific pick (outside of your keepers) is a recipe for disaster as there are too many moving parts as far as who specifically gets picked where, but having a range gives you something to work on to make educated decisions.

 

 

Edit to add: I'll further complicate this a bit - are you able to make trades prior to announcing keepers? If so, then we need to expand on this discussion a bit.

 

Edited August 2, 2019 by Big Country