DK Metcalf’s minicamp absence is unexcused

[League_Champion]

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2022/06/08/reports-dk-metcalfs-minicamp-absence-in-unexcused/

[Finn5033]

I can’t blame him for trying to get paid before the season. He just went from having Russell Wilson as his QB to either Geno Smith or Drew Lock. Problem is it seems pretty clear they are going back to being a run first team so his value to them is already diminished

Edited June 8, 2022 by Finn5033

[Bobby Brown]

2 hours ago, Finn5033 said:

I can’t blame him for trying to get paid before the season. He just went from having Russell Wilson as his QB to either Geno Smith or Drew Lock. Problem is it seems pretty clear they are going back to being a run first team so his value to them is already diminished

Not sure I agree.  In the 4 games with Geno Smith last year, Metcalf caught 17 passes on 21 targets, 251 yards, and 4 TDs.  The feeling was that Wilson was underutilizing Metcalf last year.  I would expect DK to have a bigger target share and another solid season.

Lockett is the one who I think will have the bigger value drop.

Edited June 8, 2022 by Bobby Brown

[stevegrab]

28 minutes ago, Bobby Brown said:

Not sure I agree.  In the 4 games with Geno Smith last year, Metcalf caught 17 passes on 21 targets, 251 yards, and 4 TDs.  The feeling was that Wilson was underutilizing Metcalf last year.  I would expect DK to have a bigger target share and another solid season.

Lockett is the one who I think will have the bigger value drop.

 

Stat geek time      initially the numbers don't support the bolded, but I think the key is somehow Metcalf got fewer chances with Geno, but did more with them. Fans who watch the game have a more clear view than somebody analyzing stats, but that often shows interesting items.

 

Let's look at DK vs Locket in 2020 vs 2021

DK in 2021 - 21 targets in 4 games with Geno is 5 targets per game, while he had 7.5 over the course of the season (and 108 targets in 13 games with Wilson, about 8.3/game). While in 2020 he had the same 129 targets in one fewer game. 

Locket in 2021 had 107 targets down from 132 in 2020, with same 16 games played each year. 

 

Both guys had their catch rate drop about 6% from 2020 to 2021, possibly a result of poorer QB play overall. But Locket increased his yards per target (from 8 to 11) while DK has his drop by a similar amount (10.1 to 7.5). 

 

The one stat I see that backs up the Geno upside is yards per target, with 251 yards on 21 targets being a much better number, almost 12 yards/target well above his better 2020 number. His overall number of targets with Geno were lower than with Wilson, but he was doing more with them, including scoring more TDs (1/3 of his total in less than 1/4 of the season). 

[Bobby Brown]

Extrapolating too many future expectations from a 4 game sample size should be done with caution.  The most important points to me are that Metcalf put up good numbers with Smith and was heavily used for TD targets.

If Drew Lock gets the starting nod, his arm strength seemingly points to potential of big plays to a large athletic WR.

Lockett and Wilson had chemistry and it 'seemed' like Lockett had more deep passes thrown to him than Metcalf.  Total speculation on my part, but I think Metcalf becomes a clearer #1 target under a new QB instead of the 1a.

 

Edited June 8, 2022 by Bobby Brown

[League_Champion]

1 hour ago, Bobby Brown said:

Not sure I agree.  In the 4 games with Geno Smith last year, Metcalf caught 17 passes on 21 targets, 251 yards, and 4 TDs.  The feeling was that Wilson was underutilizing Metcalf last year.  I would expect DK to have a bigger target share and another solid season.

Lockett is the one who I think will have the bigger value drop.

 

I think DK will see a much larger target share regardless of who's the QB. There were games where Wilson would barely look his way. 

[Finn5033]

3 hours ago, Bobby Brown said:

Not sure I agree.  In the 4 games with Geno Smith last year, Metcalf caught 17 passes on 21 targets, 251 yards, and 4 TDs.  The feeling was that Wilson was underutilizing Metcalf last year.  I would expect DK to have a bigger target share and another solid season.

Lockett is the one who I think will have the bigger value drop.

Good point, I didn’t not realize that. For fantasy purposes I hope he gets a lot of action

[Docniner]

I think he gets a good contract extension before training camp. Probably 20 mil or more a year. Yes they may want to run the ball more bit they can't if Chris Carson is unable to play and Rashaad Penny has a continual problem staying healthy, although he had nice number late last year. Ido like the rookie pick of Kenneth Walker III. He could quite possibly takeover the lead job from Penny at some point.

             DK METCALF will NOT be under utilized this year no matter who's tossing the rock. I expect them to be behind in a lot of games this year so they will be forced to throw and that'll benefit both Metcalf and Locket. DK should be a top 10 guy this year IMO.

[League_Champion]

36 minutes ago, Docniner said:

DK METCALF will NOT be under utilized this year no matter who's tossing the rock. I expect them to be behind in a lot of games this year so they will be forced to throw and that'll benefit both Metcalf and Locket. DK should be a top 10 guy this year IMO.

 

I agree 💯. If anything this situation bodes well for DK. I'm expecting a significant uptick in target shares.