My last mock draft

[Swiss Cheezhead]

1. San Francisco: Alex Smith, QB, Utah

 

The 49ers make the “upside” pick. Smith is quite possibly the smartest blue-chip quarterback to ever come out of college. He’s 20 years old and he’s working on his graduate degree?? Oh yeah – and he’s an athletic, accurate QB with a decent arm.

 

2. Minnesota (via Miami): Braylon Edwards, WR, Michigan

 

The Vikings would have preferred to trade with Cleveland, but, in the end, they’re too scared that Edwards will go #2, whether to Tampa or Miami. Considering Saban’s strong desire to trade down, I doubt he’d ask Minnesota for any more than their two 1st-rounders – the same deal the Vikes would have given the Browns. I was previously of the opinion that they’d be just as happy with Mike Williams, but I’ve since reconsidered. They need to replace Moss’s speed more than his size and they also need to get a sure thing at WR. Still, if they’re unable to secure Edwards, I believe they will reach for Troy Williamson at #7.

 

3. Tampa Bay (via Cleveland): Mike Williams, WR, USC

 

Well, I’ve been saying it all along and only one thing has changed: the Bucs are claiming to want a quarterback. I’m pretty sure the Vikings will see through that and realize Gruden wants a WR. Therefore, they’ll outbid Tampa for the #2. Meanwhile, Bruce Allen will shift his focus to Cleveland’s selection, since he knows he needs to stay in front of the Bears to land Williams. The Bucs do pretty well in this scenario, since it won’t cost them much to move up 2 spots – probably just their 2nd-rounder. Miami would demand more.

 

4. Chicago: Derrick Johnson, LB, Texas

 

The Bears probably want to trade down, but won’t find any takers. So, they’re forced to take the best player for their team. Disagree with me all you want – I just can’t see the Bears taking a running back here. If Edwards or Williams were available, then, yes, I think they take an offensive player. Unfortunately, that is unlikely to happen, so I believe they’ll take Johnson. As far as I’m concerned, it would be a GREAT pick for Chicago. I’ll say this one more time: the upgrade from Hunter Hillenmeyer to Derrick Johnson is bigger than the upgrade from Thomas Jones to Cedric Benson/Ronnie Brown/Carnell Williams. It’s as simple as that. Plus, if EVERYONE seems to know the Bears want to draft a RB, that probably means that’s one position they’re NOT targeting this high. Jerry Angelo is still pissed about the media leak that cost him Andre Carter.

 

5. Cleveland (via Tampa Bay): Aaron Rodgers, QB, Cal

 

The Browns have a difficult decision to make here. They could use a top-flight corner/returner (Rolle) and a pass-rushing LB (Merriman). However, I don’t think Phil Savage is afraid of the “Tedford Curse”. Sure, he watched Boller struggle, but he also watched him improve after he got some help around him. Plus, Rodgers is much more accurate than Boller ever was, so he’s a solid pick at #5. Three more reasons a QB is the pick here: 1). Cleveland doesn’t expect to be this high in the draft again. 2) Savage has Tampa’s early 2nd -rounder to play with. 3) Rodgers will have time to learn behind Trent Dilfer, who, as a former Tedford pupil, would be the PERFECT guy to teach Rodgers how to avoid pitfalls and succeed in the NFL.

 

6. Tennessee: Adam Jones, CB, West Virginia

 

Floyd Reese is happy. Jones and Andre Woolfolk could end up being the most formidable CB tandem in the league in a couple of years. For now, the Titans get a playmaking, legitimate NFL starter at an ultra-important position. The Titans already have a marginally fast, big, physical corner (Andre Woolfolk), so the quicker Jones gives Jeff Fisher a lot more matchup flexibility than Antrel Rolle. He also would be the new punt/kick returner, replacing the departed Eddie Berlin.

 

7. Miami (via Minnesota): Ronnie Brown, RB, Auburn

 

This is now a very comfortable pick for Saban. #2 is too high for a running back, but #7 for a talent like Brown is too hard to pass up. He'll consider taking Rolle to replace Surtain, but the 'Fins already have Derrick Strait, who's ready to contribute in the new, bump-and-run scheme.

 

8. Arizona: Antrel Rolle, CB, Miami (FL)

 

I’m starting to think the Cards are targeting a CB here, regardless of whether the Henry/Shelton deal happens. I believe Denny Green has had a CB penciled in at #8 since the moment he traded away Duane Starks. Green has been talking a lot more about Carlos Rogers, so I’m guessing he prefers the other two CBs. After the Titans grab Pacman, the Cardinals will be ecstatic to get Rolle here. By the way, I’m sick of all this talk about how shorter, quicker CBs are preferable, due to the new emphasis on illegal contact past five yards. I’d prefer a CB who’s physical enough to bump a receiver WITHIN five yards.

 

9. Washington: Troy Williamson, WR, South Carolina

 

After significant thought, I have to believe Joe Gibbs covets Williamson. Since they don’t have a 2005 2nd-rounder, Gibbs and Gregg Williams have probably spent a lot of time arguing over which position to target at #9. Of course, Williams is pissed that Smoot got away, so he desperately wants a cornerback. In response, Gibbs points to the consistent ineptitude of the offense last year. In the end, Gibbs will get his way, but he pacified Williams by trading for Denver’s pick, promising Williams that he can have his choice of CBs available then.

 

10. Detroit: Carlos Rogers, CB, Auburn

 

Millen and Mooch have done a very good job concealing their draft intentions, so I really have no idea which direction they’ll go here. Therefore, I’ll defer to the “knowledge-dropping” Detroit homer, policyvote, who says they would jump on one of the top 3 CBs at #10. It seems to me (and policy, for that matter) that Alex Barron would make more sense here, but he’s got legitimate “bust potential”, due to his poor strength and inconsistent effort. Because of that, it’s easy to argue that Rogers is the best player available in this scenario. To be sure, “best player available” is the one thing Millen has been preaching all along.

 

11. Dallas: Shawne Merriman, LB/DE, Maryland

 

Three weeks ago, I seriously doubted that Merriman would last that long. Fortunately for the Cowboys, it seems that other teams have tempered their post-workout enthusiasm somewhat. That will allow Parcells to get perfect value for his Willie McGinest/John Abraham clone. If Merriman is available at #11, I don’t see any other player who Parcells would want OR need more than him.

 

12. San Diego: Alex Barron, OT, Florida State

 

Philip Rivers, Nate Kaeding, and Alex Barron for Eli Manning? Umm…yeah. I’m pretty sure A.J. Smith and the Chargers are dancing in the street after this pick. Despite a bunch of no-names, the Chargers O-line is pretty decent, but they sorely need depth. Also, if Barron doesn’t take Roman Oben’s job this year, he’ll be his near-future replacement.

 

13. Houston: Mark Clayton, WR, Oklahoma

 

Houston’s biggest need is probably nose tackle, but there aren’t many of those in this class and none are worth a selection this high. So, I still believe they give Andre Johnson the perfect complimentary receiver. Clayton’s hands are money, he’s quick, and he’s a solid route-runner. Defenses will have to respect him in ways they don’t respect Jabar Gaffney, Corey Bradford, or Derrick Armstrong.

 

14. Carolina: Carnell Williams, RB, Auburn

 

Well, there simply aren’t many teams who need running backs this year (dynasty players, take notice). Consequently, the Panthers end up with the player I believe will prove to be the best running back in the draft. John Fox will probably let Deshaun Foster keep the starting job as long as he’s healthy, but if he gets hurt, Cadillac will take full advantage.

 

15. Kansas City: Travis Johnson, DT, Florida State

 

This will be a tough pick for Carl Peterson and company. KC’s defensive depth chart is looking better these days and if they can acquire Patrick Surtain, they’ll be much improved at CB. There’s still a void at the defensive tackle position, however, and Johnson is one of the better values on the board at this point. The Chiefs can only hope he succeeds where Ryan Sims has failed.

 

16. Philadelphia (via New Orleans): Demarcus Ware, DE/LB, Troy

 

Philly certainly has enough draft ammunition to make this trade happen and there aren’t any players left who Haslett wants badly. Thomas Davis would be a consideration, but the extra picks are more tempting. At the same time, Ware is exactly the kind of player the Eagles are looking for. He measured in the top 10 among defensive ends AND linebackers in EVERY agility and speed drill at the combine. Few prospects could say the same at any ONE position. He’ll be a big boost to Jim Johnson’s blitzing scheme.

 

17. Cincinnati: Thomas Davis, S/LB, Georgia

 

Davis still makes a lot of sense for the Bengals. Marvin Lewis needs a strong safety to line up with Madieu Williams and he also needs a guy to play linebacker in a pinch. The statuses of Kevin Hardy and Nate Webster are still in question, so Lewis gives himself some insurance at two positions. There have been some critics who argue that Davis makes a lot of mental mistakes, but if there’s a defensive coach who can bring out the best in him, it’s Lewis.

 

18. Miami (via Minnesota): Marcus Spears, DE, LSU

 

Saban is absolutely ecstatic to see Spears fall to him at #18. He knows what kind of player Spears is and he obviously knows how to coach him. Also, his buddy Bill Belichick has been telling him for years how much a versatile D-lineman (like Richard Seymour) is needed for the 3-4 scheme they both will be utilizing.

 

19. St. Louis: Khalif Barnes, OT, Washington

 

Nothing has changed for the Rams – they still desperately need a right offensive tackle. I bet Mike Martz could argue that St. Louis’s need for an OT is bigger than any other team’s need at any position. Given his choice between Barnes and Brown, he’ll take the guy with more potential.

 

20. Dallas: Jammal Brown, OT, Oklahoma

 

Parcells will think about shopping this pick, but there’s a large dropoff between Jammal Brown and the rest of the available OTs. Brown is a prototypical right tackle and 20th overall is pretty good value for him. If the Ravens like Brown better than the remaining receivers, though, they will do what it takes to get Parcells to give up this pick.

 

21. Jacksonville: Justin Miller, CB, Clemson

 

If it’s true that the Jaguars want an offensive tackle, they could find themselves in a bidding war for Dallas’s #20 pick. I find it hard to believe that they’ll bite, though, since they have another huge need at CB. Clemson will be an immediate starter opposite Rashean Mathis and he’ll be an instant threat in the return game (set conference record with 30+-yard average on kick returns).

 

22. Baltimore: Roddy White, WR, UAB

 

I think Newsome and Billick have been targeting a wide receiver with this pick all along. They could use an OT, but they can wait to grab one in the later rounds. Roddy White is the real deal. He’s got good size, great hands, and more route-running ability than all receivers not named Mark Clayton. Also, scouts at the Senior Bowl were very impressed with his deep speed – a quality none of the current Ravens receivers possess.

 

23. Seattle: Cedric Benson, HB, Texas

 

Yep – there still aren’t any teams outside of the top 10 with a need for a running back. Seattle, however, would see Benson as an instant replacement for Shaun Alexander and would have the luxury of trading their “franchise” back for an early 2nd-round pick, maybe Arizona's...?

 

24. Green Bay: Darryl Blackstock, LB, Virginia

 

Despite some speculation, the Packers won’t take a QB in the first round. And, after signing Arturo Freeman and Earl Little, their biggest weakness is at the LB position. Blackstock would be a great fit for Green Bay’s defense. Nick Barnett is a very good MLB and Na’il Diggs is solid on the outside, but neither of them is an adequate pass-rusher. Blackstock would almost definitely start, and he’d immediately add a blitzing threat the Pack hasn’t had in a loooong time.

 

25. Washington (via Denver): Fabian Washington, CB, Nebraska

 

As mentioned above, I think the ridiculous-seeming trade with the Broncos was an effort by Gibbs to appease his defensive coordinator, Gregg Williams. If the Redskins don’t trade this pick for a veteran CB (Woodson) AND they take a WR at #9, they simply have to take a CB here. With Gibbs obsessing about speed, Fabian Washington would fit the bill.

 

26. Oakland (via New York): Marlin Jackson, CB, Michigan

 

Erasmus James would be very tempting for the Raiders in this scenario, but I’ve read that they’re expecting big production from Tyler Brayton this season. Therefore, the loss of Philip Buchanon will become the biggest factor in this decision. Marlin Jackson is a very underrated CB prospect. He’s got the natural coverage skills to become a top corner in the NFL. Plus, he’s got the size to give Oakland flexibility at the free safety position.

 

27. Atlanta: Brodney Pool, S, Oklahoma

 

After getting some more information (thanks, AC), it appears Atlanta is happy with their D-line. They feel they got great 5th-round value in Chad Lavalais last year and he’s slated to start next to Rod Coleman. They definitely need more playmakers in the secondary, though, so Pool will have every chance to beat out Carpenter and Coady for the starting job.

 

28. San Diego: Shaun Cody, DE/DT, Southern Cal

 

Since there are far more WRs in this draft than 3-4 defensive ends, the Bolts decide to take Cody and plug him right into the starting lineup. He’ll give San Diego’s D-line the pass-rushing presence they desperately need.

 

29. Indianapolis: Erasmus James, DE, Wisconsin

 

If I’m wrong about James slipping this far, somebody will be overpaying him. Personally, I think James will have a disappointing NFL career. He’s not particularly fast, he’s injury-prone, and his production dropped significantly after a curiously quick start. That leads me to believe teams were double-teaming Anntaj Hawthorne until James took advantage. Still, he’s a good value pick for the Colts here, and with Freeney on the other side, James might see a lot of one-on-one matchups.

 

30. Pittsburgh: Matt Jones, WR, Arkansas

 

This truly seems to be the perfect spot for Matt Jones. The Steelers don’t have any glaring needs, so taking Jones wouldn’t hurt them at another position. They have two guys on the roster who can teach him how to make the transition from QB to WR.

 

31. New Orleans (Philadelphia): Kevin Burnett, LB, Tennessee

 

Burnett would certainly be a slight reach at the end of the first round, but I doubt Haslett cares much. With this pick and the 2.03 from Philly, the Saints need two starters. Burnett is a definite upgrade over their current OLBs and there’s a steep dropoff at the position from here on out. Plus, New Orleans realizes Burnett could become a Patriot at the very next selection.

 

32. New England: David Pollack, DE/OLB, Georgia

 

Once again, the Pats come away looking really good. David Pollack is the best player available at this point and he fills a big need. Does anyone remember, about a decade ago, a guy who was an unblockable defensive end in college joined the Patriots and, despite marginal speed, become one of the best linebackers in the NFL? Tedy Bruschi, we hope you recover from your stroke and return to the field, but if you can’t, Belichick has found your clone.

 

 

 

Edit #1: Typo

Edit #2: Changed explanation paragraph for #7 Miami.

Edit #3: Typo

Edit #4: Surtain is now a Chief, so the Redskins won't be trading for him.

Edited April 22, 2005 by Swiss Cheezhead

[Swiss Cheezhead]

Whoops...forgot to change one explanation paragraph...

[A Little Bit Special]

Interesting take. Blackstock is talented and can definitely rush the passer from the LB position, so I wouldn't be upset if they went that way. Still even though Freeman was a good pickup I'm not so sure they should bank on Little being a starter. With two 2nd round picks I would think they can find a LB that can contribute.

[Vote Quimby2]

If Seattle passes on Pollack or James I will be pissed.

[Sam]

Great mock Swiss. I hope you're right about the Steelers picking Matt Jones. I've been hoping they get him since his performance in the Senior bowl and combine. This is the first Mock I've seen that doesn't have Heath Miller going somewhere in the 1st round. If he's there the Steelers may take him, although I'm hoping they take Jones.

[Chargerz]

Of course, I would like the Bolts to get a flashy WR, but I can live with a quality offensive and defensive lineman in the first round. Nice mock! It's obvious you have put alot of time and thought into this!!!

[policyvote]

Jerry Angelo is still pissed about the media leak that cost him Andre Carter.

 

Uh, wasn't the "media leak" Jerry Angelo sitting down with the media and saying "I'm taking Andre Carter"?

 

Peace

policy

[Swiss Cheezhead]

Uh, wasn't the "media leak" Jerry Angelo sitting down with the media and saying "I'm taking Andre Carter"?

 

Peace

policy

 

790187[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

Umm...I don't remember for sure, but I know he's still upset about it. Of all the GMs out there, he's probably the most concerned about disguising his true intentions. If I'm right, why would EVERY media outlet be reporting that the Bears want Cedric Benson?

[Clubfoothead]

if it goes like that for my Boys. Heck I'll even be doing pretty good in thehuddle contest if you are right. Overall, I only know this draft from my homer perspective and that is exactly what I want out of the first round. Of course that means it ain't going to happen but still.

 

I have no desire for the Cowboys to pass on Jammal Brown if Clayton is gone like you have projected. If Clayton is still on the board at #20 I'd be tempted by Baltimore if they wanted to swap picks, you think the Cowboys could get a 3rd round pick for swapping? I don't even know if Baltimore has one, though.

 

Good stuff.

[seminoles]

your mock actually makes a lot of sense. I looked at the top 10 and i said to myself "this could actually happen tomorrow". But then again, nothing goes as planned in the NFL draft and probably Matt Jones will be taken with the third overall pick or something.

[Swiss Cheezhead]

If Clayton is still on the board at #20 I'd be tempted by Baltimore if they wanted to swap picks, you think the Cowboys could get a 3rd round pick for swapping?

 

790426[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

More likely a 4th, but you never know with Newsome. If I were Parcells, though, it would have to be a 3rd to make it worth my while.

[Clubfoothead]

More likely a 4th, but you never know with Newsome. If I were Parcells, though, it would have to be a 3rd to make it worth my while.

 

790550[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

Agreed, only a 3rd and Clayton could make up for the loss of Jammal Brown.

[McBoog]

Of course, I would like the Bolts to get a flashy WR, but I can live with a quality offensive and defensive lineman in the first round. Nice mock! It's obvious you have put alot of time and thought into this!!!

 

790156[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

Yup! Nice thinking for the Bolts! I have been stuck in the classic DE/LB/WR mode myself, but was POed when they didn't take Gallery. This would certainly take the sting off of that! Your O-Line is the heart of your team.