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Total RB carries

Last Plane Out

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this may be important


or maybe not  :D







9 of the 16 350+ RA seasons on that list had under 300 carries the following year.


So, at best, the information doesn't really give us a clear indication of anything.


I would say that Rudi Johnson is being unfairly knocked.

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Yup, RBs who carry the ball alot get injured. It catches up with all of them eventually.


Edit: Of course that guy out of Detroit never really had an off-year. I wonder what ever happened to him.

Edited by Egret
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I enjoyed this part of the article... :D


"***Maybe Ricky Williams realized that he was due for a breakdown anyway. "


I guess that's why he took some time off, lost his signing bonus, respect of all his teammates, peers, coaches and fans everywhere. Give me a break(no pun intended), Ricky was burned out but I don't think he studied the history of RBs breaking down after a year of heavy carries. The hippie lettuce was calling and he had to follow. :D

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Very interesting. While most people know the more carries a r/b has the more of a beating his body will take. I will say that the article definitely has merit. How much you should actually read into it I don't know. But it's a valid point and something to think about.

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I absolutely think it's enough of a trend that you can't ignore it. I saw a similar analysis (I think DMD did it) a couple years ago, that went clear back to the '60s. IIRC, there were only two or three backs that went over the (I think) 340 carry mark that didn't see a marked falloff the next year. Again, IIRC Earl Campbell, Eric Dickerson and Emmit were the only three. In that vein, there are two guys on that list I'm avoiding this year, unless they were to come unexpectedly cheap: Tiki and Rudi.


Rudi doesn't have enough of a track record yet, but that's precisely why I'm avoiding him. He's never had that many carries before, and the presence of second-rounder Perry (if he shows a little and stays healthy this year) might be enough to dictate that Rudi sits, rather than plays through a nick or ding. Especially if that team is either 1) comfortably in the wildcard race, where I think they will be or, 2) out of it completely.


I'm not a Giants fan, nor have I watched them a ton, but my impression of Tiki is that he always seems to be banged up just a little. Like Warrick Dunn, the smaller guy produces on the field, but it seems to me that there's always some little injury there. I have Brandon Jacobs targeted as a late-round flier for precisely that reason. I just worry that Tiki's large load last season, combined with his size, could equal injury bug this season.

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