Bronco Billy Posted May 20, 2009 Share Posted May 20, 2009 Exactly. I noticed the post indicating 300 carries are too many for anyone. I wanted to clarify that the 336 that Keggerz listed were total touches. Good. So you do understand. And in the past 5 years, there have been 336+ touches by RBs occur 41 times, by 21 different players. So you are expecting MJD to move from always being a RBBC RB who has never had 200 carries to being one of the heaviest worked RBs in the past 5 years with no detriment to his production. Got it... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Stanky Posted May 20, 2009 Share Posted May 20, 2009 (edited) Good. So you do understand. And in the past 5 years, there have been 336+ touches by RBs occur 41 times, by 21 different players. So you are expecting MJD to move from always being a RBBC RB who has never had 200 carries to being one of the heaviest worked RBs in the past 5 years with no detriment to his production. Got it... 41 times in 5 years, okay. That's roughly 8 RB's a year, so yes I would be surprised if MJD has less than 300 touches in 09. Edited May 20, 2009 by Capt. Stanky Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Stanky Posted May 20, 2009 Share Posted May 20, 2009 (edited) Even if my projections are a tad high that is beside the point. The point is that MJD was the #2 RB in PPR leagues when it comes to total pts. He did that with 259 touches. If he has anywhere from 300 to 336 touches I don't think his production would go down to the point that he wouldn't at least put up better #'s than he did last year. Correction; I believe MJD finished #3 in total pts behind D-Will and Forte, but Forte passed him up week 17 I believe when most fantasy seasons are over. Edited May 20, 2009 by Capt. Stanky Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Square Posted May 21, 2009 Share Posted May 21, 2009 If you want to go down that road, I'll drive Forte outscored MJD 8 times out of 13 in FF relevant games. Almost 2:1 advantage. And Forte was more consistent. Not once did he post less than 10 points, whereas MJD did that twice. just sayin'. I'm a fan of consistency over total season points. Shhhhhh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westvirginia Posted May 21, 2009 Share Posted May 21, 2009 Here are the total touches for 8 top backs form last year: D-Will = 295 Turner = 382 (only 6 rec; RED FLAG!!!) Forte = 379 ADP = 384 S-Jax = 293 (missed 3 full games and part of 1 more) Portis = 370 LT= 344 TJones = 326 MJD = 259 Maybe my projections are a bit high, but as you can see it's rare for a starting RB to have less than 300 total touches. Completely agree. I wouldn't touch Turner this year. DMD did an analysis a few years back that indicated 370 was a magic number for RB carries in a season, that only something like two RB's in NFL history had a season the year after the 370-carry season that was equal or better to the 370-carry season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted May 21, 2009 Share Posted May 21, 2009 Completely agree. I wouldn't touch Turner this year. DMD did an analysis a few years back that indicated 370 was a magic number for RB carries in a season, that only something like two RB's in NFL history had a season the year after the 370-carry season that was equal or better to the 370-carry season. I love Turner this coming year. The progression of Ryan through his learning curve and the addition of Gonzalez means the passing game ought to be more effective, meaning larger running lanes for Turner as well as more TD opportunities. Having Norwood means he doesn't have to play tweaked. Turner can easily hit the same numbers with less touches. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Stanky Posted May 21, 2009 Share Posted May 21, 2009 I love Turner this coming year. The progression of Ryan through his learning curve and the addition of Gonzalez means the passing game ought to be more effective, meaning larger running lanes for Turner as well as more TD opportunities. Having Norwood means he doesn't have to play tweaked. Turner can easily hit the same numbers with less touches. Your logic is solid, Bronco, but my concern would be him breaking down during the season. Turner also doesn't add any value as a receiver, so in a PPR league I wouldn't consider Turner unless I had a wrap pick and he slipped to the end of the first. Come to think of it, I would still probably pass on him, but that's just me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westvirginia Posted May 21, 2009 Share Posted May 21, 2009 I love Turner this coming year. The progression of Ryan through his learning curve and the addition of Gonzalez means the passing game ought to be more effective, meaning larger running lanes for Turner as well as more TD opportunities. Having Norwood means he doesn't have to play tweaked. Turner can easily hit the same numbers with less touches. All that makes sense, (and I agree with the thoughts on the ATL passing game) but how "tweaked"? I just don't trust him enough to draft him there. Honestly I'll probably try to grab Norwood late also. I know statistics can be made to say whatever, but numbers that strong I just can't go against. I like the ATL running game in general, it's just the health of Turner I'm worried about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted May 22, 2009 Share Posted May 22, 2009 Stanky & WV, I love guys like you. Put forth good points, willing to give & take, will actually consider another side even if you disagree completely. Agreed that Turner saw a lot of work, and that puts a risk on him. But the situation just seems to be falling in place for him (and for the ATL O overall, for that matter). In regard to MJD - I'll concede that he could put up very good numbers that warrant a top 3 drafting of him. I guess what I'd put forth is that there is risk in drafting him that some may be ignoring. It's enough risk where I would look at a few other options before picking him in a FF draft. It all comes down to what kind of risk you are comfortable accepting and what risk you place a higher priority on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawks21 Posted May 23, 2009 Share Posted May 23, 2009 A. I don't see the Jags increasing his workload that much. I don't think that is the best way to use an undersized guy. B. I don't see it having a very positive effect if they do decide to increase it a lot. I think it is absolutely essential to MJD's style that he stays fresh, both on a per game and full season basis. I don't think his YPC translates to a much bigger workload. I think you would find that his YPC would go down quite dramatically if they use him that much. I like MJD, I even consider myself an MJD guy, but I still view him as the "ultimate change of pace" type back. I don't know that his numbers translate straight across, meaning that I don't think he is going to get 500 more yards, just because he'll have that many more opportunities. I don't think he'll play badly by any stretch, but I think top 3 is just a higher ceiling than he has, especially in such a questionable offense, where he basically is the only player they have. Some teams are going to flat-out take him out of the game, or at least try their darndest. He hasn't faced that before. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bushwacked Posted November 9, 2009 Share Posted November 9, 2009 posted by me in post 88 in this threadHere is some additionally interesting info I found on MJD: Rushing Attempts 1 thru 10 2008 137 attempts, 621 yards, 4.5 ypc, 10 TDs, 37 1st downs 2007 155 attempts 673 yards. 4.3 ypc, 9 TDs, 45 1st downs 2006 118 attempts, 757 yards, 6.4 ypc, 11 TDs, 38 1st downs Rushing Attempts 11 thru 20 2008 55 attempts, 193 yards, 3.5 ypc, 2 TDs , 9 1st downs 2007 26 attempts, 143 yards. 5.5 ypc, 1 TDs, 5 1st downs 2006 42 attempts, 171 yards. 4.1 ypc, 2 TDs, 7 1st downs Rushing Attempts 21 thru 30 2008 5 attempts, 10 yards, 2.0 ypc, 0 TDs, 1 1st downs 2007 NONE in 2007 2006 6 attempts, 13 yards, 2.2 ypc, 0 TDs, 1 1st downs Now lets look a bit deeper at the numbers: 2008: carries 1-10 converted 27% of carries into 1st downs carries 11-20 converted 16% of carries into 1st downs carries 21-30 converted 20% of carries into 1st downs(5 carries is really to small a sample size) 2007: carries 1-10 converted 29% of carries into 1st downs carries 11-20 converted 19% of carries into 1st downs carries 21-30 N/A NO CARRIES 2006: carries 1-10 converted 32% of carries into 1st downs carries 11-20 converted 17% of carries into 1st downs carries 21-30 converted 17% of carries into 1st downs(again only 6 carries and that really is to small a sample size) So to me it looks as if the Jags want to LIMIT MJDs effectiveness they will indeed be giving him MORE carries Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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