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Seferian-Jenkins signs with the Jaguars

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Just looked at the draft recap in my 12 man PPR redraft last year, and no one drafted him.  This is a competitive league with savvy owners as well.  Only 16 TE's were drafted, with the other Austin (Hooper) being the last one off the board. 

 

Based on last years numbers, I don't think anyone will really be targeting him.  Only people who spend entirely too much free time like all of us will be generating buzz. He'll be great for a no TE strategy, and I truly think his floor will be top 12 TE.

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ASJ was drafted in 4,076 of 6,051 public MFL leagues last year.  He does have a lot of natural talent.  I'll be willing to use a 16th round pick on him.  But he'll be on a very short leash.  He'll need to have a good game 1 for me to not cut him.

 

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Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, michaelredd9 said:

ASJ was drafted in 4,076 of 6,051 public MFL leagues last year.

 

67% draft rate last year; that sounds more reasonable for a guy who was a clear #1 TE option on a team lacking WRs.  If ASJ wasn't drafted in 100% of  2018 FFPC drafts, it was almost certainly well north of 90%. The 1.5 PPR exclusive to TEs results in more TEs being drafted relative to straight PPR leagues.

 

It's early, but according to FPros 2018 consensus ADP, ASJ is the 18th TE off the board. Draftsharks shows ASJ in going in the 13th found, 3 rounds higher than he went last year.  In the majority of 2018 leagues, I don't think its realistic to expect him to go undrafted; and I wouldn't be surprised to see his ADP to rise a bit more throughout the year.  

 

He is talented, but he still is going to have to share some targets with M. Lewis and Niles Paul at the TE position alone.  ASJ is probably going to be the most valuable fantasy TE in Jacksonville, but that isn't even a guarantee.  Jax wants to run the ball, and run it some more, before they start passing.  There certainly isn't a statistical framework of history in Jaxsonville  that supports a meteoric rise in fantasy value at the TE position. 

Edited by Bobby Brown

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2 hours ago, Bobby Brown said:

 There certainly isn't a statistical framework of history in Jaxsonville  that supports a meteoric rise in fantasy value at the TE position. 

i don't think it's the team's history that should be of interest, but the HC and OC. What did they do in their past with other teams? If they focused more on the TE position in their previous assignments, then you can suggest that they'll do that here.

Nor are the other TEs on the team a threat to a very good pass catching TE. You can debate whether ASJ is, but the other TEs are not.

 

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8 minutes ago, LordOpie said:

i don't think it's the team's history that should be of interest, but the HC and OC. What did they do in their past with other teams? If they focused more on the TE position in their previous assignments, then you can suggest that they'll do that here.

Nor are the other TEs on the team a threat to a very good pass catching TE. You can debate whether ASJ is, but the other TEs are not.

 

in 2013 and 2014, the #1 TE on the Buffalo Bills (HC and OC were the same pair as the HC and OC now for JAC) was Scott Chandler who had his two best years of his career. In 2014, Chandler was #4 on the team in receptions and was #1 on the team in catches in 2013.

It seems clear that the HC and OC value the TE position. ASJ is the only legit option.

ASJ is in good position to have a career year. Seeing as how he is 25 yo, that's not an unreasonable expectation. Rumor is that he is sober and on the right path. Probably about to peak physically as elite athletes have the best years of their career when they are 26-27 yo as the peak combination of youth and experience.

I think michaelredd9 is probably the only poster who read this far as he enjoys breaking down the data more than I do.

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Posted (edited)

I acknowledge that Scott Chandler had a couple productive seasons under Marrone and Hackett. But those two coaches have also been in Jacksonville for two seasons now.  Why should coaching tendencies from 5 years ago be emphasized while ignoring a more recent track record of utilization?

 

Mercedes Lewis has beat ASJ’s career high in receiving yardage 6 different seasons over the course of his career; even Paul Niles has had one better year. Stating that ASJ is the only legit pass catching TE on Jacksonville is an opinion, but it’s not one backed by actual performance metrics. 

 

This is Bortles 6th season as the starter in Jax.  His track record, which have included at least 2 TEs with better resumes than ASJ, in utilizing the TE position should also be taken into account. 

 

One is better off using a weight of evidence approach for future prognosticating.  But methinks when one shoots from the hip with a pie in the sky projection; one must cherry pick to not look foolish.  :)

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Bobby Brown

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i get it. you don't believe. i don't care :D

you can tease me at the end of the season if ASJ doesn't set new career highs.

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Posted (edited)

Setting career highs is totally in the realm of plausibility.  Thinking that ASJ will double his career high as a floor and triple those career highs as a ceiling, is ummmm.....bold?

Edited by Bobby Brown

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5 hours ago, Bobby Brown said:

I acknowledge that Scott Chandler had a couple productive seasons under Marrone and Hackett. But those two coaches have also been in Jacksonville for two seasons now.  Why should coaching tendencies from 5 years ago be emphasized while ignoring a more recent track record of utilization?

 

Mercedes Lewis has beat ASJ’s career high in receiving yardage 6 different seasons over the course of his career; even Paul Niles has had one better year. Stating that ASJ is the only legit pass catching TE on Jacksonville is an opinion, but it’s not one backed by actual performance metrics. 

 

This is Bortles 6th season as the starter in Jax.  His track record, which have included at least 2 TEs with better resumes than ASJ, in utilizing the TE position should also be taken into account. 

 

One is better off using a weight of evidence approach for future prognosticating.  But methinks when one shoots from the hip with a pie in the sky projection; one must cherry pick to not look foolish.  :)

 

 

ASJ hasn't been able to put it together yet, but he has shown glimmers and this will be the best situation of his career that he's been in by far.  The Jaguars as an organization, and a team, are the real deal right now.  This will likely be his last opportunity to show up, and he definitely has a far bigger ceiling than Lewis, or Niles ever could have.  Julius Thomas did have a better resume, but this was his big signing after Manning and led to his now famous laziness.  Is Mychal Rivera the other TE with a better resume?  C'mon.  You're boorish on him, but I don't think there's going to be many other TE's who will go undrafted that are in a better situation or have a higher ceiling than he does. 

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54 minutes ago, kdko said:

 this will be the best situation of his career that he's been in by far.

Really?  By far?  Locked in?  ASJ had a great opportunity situation last year.  He was targeted 74 times and had 73% of the Jets target share for TEs.  Bortles has thrown to one TE for more than 74 targets once in his career (Thomas with 80 in 2015).  Bortles 2nd most targets to a single TE was 55 to M. Lewis last year.

 

Going to a better team doesn't mean your fantasy value goes up.  Borltes passing usage and value has also decreased substantially compared to the year he targeted Thomas 80 times.  His stats have decreased from 4.4K -35TD to 3.9K- 23TD to 3.7K-21TD over the last 3 years.  Jaxsonville no longer has the garbage time factor that boosted their passing value in previous years. 

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Posted (edited)

I'm going to make a concerted effort to get a top-4 tight end this season.  Or at least I am hoping 1 of the top-4 drops to the 4th round.  I think the drop off is considerable from tier 1 to tier 2 and even greater from tier 2 to tier 3.  If I don't one of the 7 or 8 dependable tight ends, I'm not going to enchiladafoot around.  I might draft 3 tight ends with an emphasis on high risk/high reward players.  Maybe Jordan Reed, Tyler Eifert, and ASJ.  I'm tired of trying to pick up a tight end during the season.  A couple of tight ends break out each season but it's tough to figure out who it will be.  I'd rather use 3 roster spots at the beginning of the year and guarantee a solid tight end than to use 3 roster spots mid-season in a desperate attempt to find a quality tight end.  With the high risk/high reward tight ends, at least one will be hurt or droppable after the first few weeks.

Tier 1

1. Gronk

2. Kelce

3. Graham

4. Ertz

Tier 2

5. Engram

6. Olsen

7. Reed

8. Doyle

9. Walker

10 Rudolph

11 Henry

Tier 3

12 Eifert

13. Seals-Jones

14. ASJ

15. Howard

16. Brate

17. Cook

18. Njoku

19. Witten

20. Kittle

21. Everett

 

Edited by michaelredd9

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On Saturday, March 17, 2018 at 2:23 PM, Bobby Brown said:

ASJ was drafted in every single league I was in last year; well, besides the one work league where no one knew what they were doing.  He certainly won't go undrafted this year. 

 

I too had to laugh at the "he's most likely going undrafted" claim.

 

Lots of love being heaped on a very average TE, with claims of doubling and tripling his numbers, his new QB suddently throwing for career yardage etc.

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3 minutes ago, stevegrab said:

 

Lots of love being heaped on a very average TE, with claims of doubling and tripling his numbers, his new QB suddently throwing for career yardage etc.

Who said that? 

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6 minutes ago, LordOpie said:

Who said that?

 

Which part? double, triple, QB career yardage?  All were posted by people in this thread.

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1 hour ago, stevegrab said:

 

I too had to laugh at the "he's most likely going undrafted" claim.

 

Lots of love being heaped on a very average TE, with claims of doubling and tripling his numbers, his new QB suddently throwing for career yardage etc.

 

 

Where did he go in your draft?  Like I said, in my big money 12 man PPR league with experienced vets, no one picked him up.  Laugh all you want, but I think you're completely missing the point of this thread, which to me is laughable.  Can you offer up the name of another average TE who had as good of a change in scenery, has the physical tools, and will likely go undrafted?  That's the point here.  Doubling your career high of 300 yards is too steep of a goal.

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Posted (edited)

Someone already posted that he was drafted in 67% of MFL leagues last year.  He is coming off a career year and there should be an expectation of increased ADP.  In fact I posted early, yet unreliable, data that shows his 2018 ADP being 3 rounds higher than last year.  

 

I'm not sure why you keep insisting that ASJ won't get drafted.

Edited by Bobby Brown

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Wasn’t he on suspension to start the year last year?  That would affect his Draft slot.

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38 minutes ago, kdko said:

 

 

Where did he go in your draft?  Like I said, in my big money 12 man PPR league with experienced vets, no one picked him up.  Laugh all you want, but I think you're completely missing the point of this thread, which to me is laughable.  Can you offer up the name of another average TE who had as good of a change in scenery, has the physical tools, and will likely go undrafted?  That's the point here.  Doubling your career high of 300 yards is too steep of a goal.

 

I don't recall where he was drafted, but pretty certain he was. Blanket statements like "he's not even getting drafted" are just laughable, because you don't know all the league details. Even more laughable based on others reporting 67% of MFL leagues had him drafted.

 

As for him being in this great break out situation, I simply don't agree. I don't need to convince you or anybody else. I have my reasons. primarily JAX isn't pass happy, ASJ isn't that talented or hungry.

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11 minutes ago, Caveman_Nick said:

Wasn’t he on suspension to start the year last year?  That would affect his Draft slot.

I forgot about that, he missed the first 2 games.

 

This thread has the potential to be the new Christine Michael thread.  :headbang:

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26 minutes ago, Bobby Brown said:

Someone already posted that he was drafted in 67% of MFL leagues last year.

 

This is a stupid statistic because it doesn't factor in league sizes.  Sure, he was drafted in 100% of 16+ team drafts.  C'mon.  Come back with some better statistics on that.

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9 minutes ago, stevegrab said:

 

I don't recall where he was drafted, but pretty certain he was. Blanket statements like "he's not even getting drafted" are just laughable, because you don't know all the league details. Even more laughable based on others reporting 67% of MFL leagues had him drafted.

 

It's laughable that you're clinging to that statistic without even analyzing what it means.  67% of MFL leagues mean jack crap when 20+ team leagues with 10+ bench spots are included in that.  Try again.

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2 minutes ago, kdko said:

 

It's laughable that you're clinging to that statistic without even analyzing what it means.  67% of MFL leagues mean jack crap when 20+ team leagues with 10+ bench spots are included in that.  Try again.

 

 Whatever, find somebody else to argue with. Count on ASJ and his huge breakout year, I don't care.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, kdko said:

 

This is a stupid statistic because it doesn't factor in league sizes.  Sure, he was drafted in 100% of 16+ team drafts.  C'mon.  Come back with some better statistics on that.

I'll let Aaron Rodgers clarify that if he so wishes.

 

The draftsharks ADP that showed ASJ's ADP rising from round 16 in 2017 to round 13 in 2018 was specific to 12 team leagues. 

 

I played in 4 high stake 12 team FFPC leagues last year and ASJ was drafted in all of them; including by me in one league.

 

In looking at Late August 2017 ADP published on a competitor's site for  "57 recent drafts" on 12 team FFPC leagues; ASJ was drafted in 46 out of 57 leagues (81%) with an ADP of round 15. The full 2017 ADP with 1000+ plus drafts is available via a different website; but I'm not going to pay $5 to access it and further prove a meaningless point.   I'm not even sure why you need to keep pretending that no-one will draft him; as it isn't necessarily central to the discussion anyway.

 

There is the distinct possibility that your 12 team savvy league draft isn't and won't be an accurate representation of the ADP the majority of us will experience this year. 

 

Edited by Bobby Brown
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3 hours ago, stevegrab said:

 

Which part? double, triple, QB career yardage?  All were posted by people in this thread.

yes. I must have missed where anyone said any of that?

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1 hour ago, stevegrab said:

 

 Whatever, find somebody else to argue with.

 

lol, you're one of the most contrary posters here. Bobby Brown is catching up. You guys will argue the opposite of anything and everything. So I can't believe you don't want to argue with KDKO?

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