Itsnottatooma Posted December 29, 2005 Share Posted December 29, 2005 I'm in a league with some buddies and all we do is pick winners of every NFL Game each week, no point spread. Whoever has most correct at the end of the reg season wins the pot. I was pretty well humiliated last year finishing in the bottom half of the standings. I took too many chances early on and then later I had to go for crazy underdog picks to try to make up ground and that didn't work out too well. I recall getting 3 of 16 right in one week. I decided this year, I would play conservative and just pick all the favorites as listed in my local Friday newspaper and in case of a "pick" game, would go with the home team. My expectation was that this strategy would at least keep me close to the lead in the league and over the last few weeks, depending on how I was doing, I could alter my strategy to try to make up ground. Well, going into the last week of the season I am up by 18 games with 179 correct out of a possible 240 (74.5%!). I had printouts of the last 2 seasons and nobody's ever finished with more than 174 wins and I am already 5 games ahead of that with a week to go. I am amazed not only by the favorites winning this often, but how far I am in front of everybody else. I wonder if the favorite straight-up winning percentage is this high every year? Anybody know where to find that kind of info? Nice payout of $200 for doing basically no work! Are any other Huddlers in one of these type of leagues? Can anybody beat my 74.5%? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gilthorp Posted December 29, 2005 Share Posted December 29, 2005 You're on the verge of becoming an eggspurt. Nice job. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donutrun Jellies Posted December 29, 2005 Share Posted December 29, 2005 I decided this year, I would play conservative and just pick all the favorites as listed in my local Friday newspaper and in case of a "pick" game, would go with the home team. Can anybody beat my 74.5%? 1240881[/snapback] Ummm, you mean "their" 74.5%? That newspaper picker ought to be cashing in somewhere else ... And the answer, for me, is no. 74.5% would dwarf my abilities .... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itsnottatooma Posted December 29, 2005 Author Share Posted December 29, 2005 Ummm, you mean "their" 74.5%? That newspaper picker ought to be cashing in somewhere else ... And the answer, for me, is no. 74.5% would dwarf my abilities .... 1240992[/snapback] You are correct since I'm just copying what's in the paper (Roxy Roxborough) - but then again, that is probably just the same list of favorites that you'd find in any newspaper. BTW - I (he) got all 14 winners right in week 9. Pretty cool. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donutrun Jellies Posted December 29, 2005 Share Posted December 29, 2005 Aye, regardless of your sources, you still have to have the cahones to play the game and stay true to the formula. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Posted December 29, 2005 Share Posted December 29, 2005 You are correct since I'm just copying what's in the paper (Roxy Roxborough) - but then again, that is probably just the same list of favorites that you'd find in any newspaper. BTW - I (he) got all 14 winners right in week 9. Pretty cool. 1241028[/snapback] That is very odd. Most pickers are lucky to get 50% correct. Good job. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAYER Posted December 30, 2005 Share Posted December 30, 2005 Very good, play in a league like this also. Week 13 went 16 out of 16, First time ever. been doing this for 11 yrs. Right now the leader(me) has 147 wins. You are picking whoever is the favorite right. Not who your local writer likes just whatever team is the favorite. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itsnottatooma Posted December 30, 2005 Author Share Posted December 30, 2005 Very good, play in a league like this also. Week 13 went 16 out of 16, First time ever. been doing this for 11 yrs. Right now the leader(me) has 147 wins.You are picking whoever is the favorite right. Not who your local writer likes just whatever team is the favorite. 1241614[/snapback] Yes, I'm just taking all the favorites. e.g. this week it's SD, NYG, Ind, Balt, Buf, Car, Min, KC, Pit, NE, TB, Hou, Jax, GB, Was and Dal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crispirons Posted December 30, 2005 Share Posted December 30, 2005 most yrs aren't like this. it seems to me that far less dogs outright won let alone covered. i picked up on this trend after about week 6 or 7. i love playing the dogs with the points but had to follow the money trail.....which was the favorites. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark5 Posted December 31, 2005 Share Posted December 31, 2005 But will you pick Green Bay to win this week? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justin Posted December 31, 2005 Share Posted December 31, 2005 most yrs aren't like this. it seems to me that far less dogs outright won let alone covered. i picked up on this trend after about week 6 or 7. i love playing the dogs with the points but had to follow the money trail.....which was the favorites. 1242241[/snapback] I totally agree here. In general, there have not been as many (win-loss) upsets. That has proven true in some "suicide/pick-a-winner" pools where the object is to pick just one winner each week, without using the same team twice. In past years, the pool usually ends before the end of the season with one or two players left getting the payout. This year, we are going into the final week of the regular season and there are many entries still left. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rocknrobn26 Posted December 31, 2005 Share Posted December 31, 2005 I totally agree here. In general, there have not been as many (win-loss) upsets. That has proven true in some "suicide/pick-a-winner" pools where the object is to pick just one winner each week, without using the same team twice. In past years, the pool usually ends before the end of the season with one or two players left getting the payout. This year, we are going into the final week of the regular season and there are many entries still left. 1242313[/snapback] IMHO, this week sucks. Too much saving players going on. Not denying, but I find it hard to believe some newspaper hack is hitting ~75%! That ain't the case in the papers I read. I usually beat them, no spread. Granted the w/l pool didn't have a lot of upsets for the year, but there were weeks this year where upsets dominated. My memory fails me here , but there were like 5 upsets last week in the first 8 games. Congrats on your 'system', but I wouldn't count on it for the long haul, i.e., seasons to come. Did you ever play in a confidence league? Mine is ripping my heart out this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itsnottatooma Posted December 31, 2005 Author Share Posted December 31, 2005 (edited) Not denying, but I find it hard to believe some newspaper hack is hitting ~75%! That ain't the case in the papers I read. I usually beat them, no spread. 1242324[/snapback] I'm not sure that it's understood that my pickpool is only picking winners straight up with no point spread. And my plan is to just pick the favorites to win SU. I'm pretty sure most all prognosticators have the same "favorite" for virtually any game, the rare exception being those that have a line that is 1 point or a "pick-em". For the record the guy who's lines get printed in the local rag is Roxy Roxborough who is apparently some big wig out in Vegas. I just checked vegas.com and all the casinos listed had the same fave for every game and it matched Roxy's pix for this week. Last week I scored 12 out of 16. Misses were STL, CAR, CIN and NO. I think as you pointed out these were all early games. Next best score in the league was 10 right. I do think that this season must be a bit of an abberation with faves winning SU more than normal, but I don't have numbers to back that up, just a hunch. I don't know where to look up that kind of info. Edit to add: I did play a confidence league for a couple of years - a LOT harder to do and at the time it was all manually done so it was difficult for the commish. It was a lot of fun though. Edited December 31, 2005 by Itsnottatooma Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAYER Posted December 31, 2005 Share Posted December 31, 2005 Did you ever play in a confidence league? Mine is ripping my heart out this year. 1242324[/snapback] What is a confidence league? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rocknrobn26 Posted December 31, 2005 Share Posted December 31, 2005 What is a confidence league? 1242608[/snapback] A confidence league is where you pick a winner in all the games, straight up-no spread, and rank them 1-16. 16 being most confident, 1 being least. There are many ways to payout at the end, but the weekly winner is the one w/ the most points. There is also a side pool for MNF exact score, which usually happens 3-5 times per year. It starts at $50 and goes up $50 per week until there is a winner. It's a $100 buy in and the league I'm currently in has ~45 people. Lot of fun, hard to win. One week I hit 14/16. I lost my 1 & 3 game. I ended up like in 10th place. The winner had a perfect sheet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoopzfanatic Posted December 31, 2005 Share Posted December 31, 2005 That's pretty good...the leader in our pick em is at 172 and I'm second at 166. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zooty Posted December 31, 2005 Share Posted December 31, 2005 I have 171 correct for the year, 2 ahead of 2nd place place. I'm glad you aren't in my pool I noticed DMD on his picks has 168 and Bob's Breakdown has 161 for the year (no spread). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itsnottatooma Posted January 1, 2006 Author Share Posted January 1, 2006 Guess I'm doing good. Everybody feel free to copy my strategy for next season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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